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unpacked robinhood
Feb 18, 2013

by Fluffdaddy
It's bullshit that I need to carry my own doorknob to lick, hurry up with the vaccine already !

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PederP
Nov 20, 2009

Platystemon posted:

There’s mystery spread going on even in places with competent contact tracing

How did the virus infect the first person in each cluster? Some clusters can be connected to each other. Some are mysteries.

Certainly there are untraced contacts behind some clusters, but surfaces cannot be discounted. Inefficient surface transmission makes a lot of sense. It infects one person, seemingly out of the blue, who then starts a cluster among their face-to-face contacts.

“Inefficient” sounds great, but when the prevalence of infected people gets as high as it is in America, even inefficient mechanisms may present a not insignificant threat to a person’s wellbeing.

Also, the law of large numbers. There are a very large number of surfaces, and some of get touched by a lot of people during a day. Even if the chance of surface transmission is low - there are a lot of elevator buttons, doorknobs, handles, office coffee machines, ATMs, etc.

This also goes for the weird mystery spread. The chance of transmission by someone infected pooping and flushing with the lid up to the next person walking into the toilet stall is probably incredibly low - but there are a lot of toilet stalls. Virions are generally brittle things that get murdered by all kinds of things, but there are certainly numerous very particular combinations of humidity, temperature and random stuff, that are perfect for transporting them around safely. It's completely impossible to document all possible infection vectors, and it's not even rational to try and address them all.

The rational way to fight this virus is simply to reduce the average number of contacts with other people - number of unique individuals, number of exposures and duration of exposures. Masks are fine. Hand hygiene is *very* good, because it also prevents all kinds of other nasty stuff. Distancing is fine. But I'm absolutely sure the reason why even soft lockdowns seem to work well is that they affect contact numbers. Once prevalence is knocked down to very low levels, you don't really need to do more than handle local outbreaks. I'm skeptical if international travel is a good idea, but we'll see soon, as that is being introduced in numerous countries with otherwise total control of the epidemic.

Both of these is why you are right about the situation in America - the degree of contact reduction needed to get things under control correlates with prevalence. Once prevalence is high, the law of large numbers makes even the weird transmission vectors a real problem.

If the US doesn't get this under control very soon, I worry it will need an incredibly harsh lockdown to get this under control, and considering the political climate and level of unrest I'm not sure that's possible without bloodshed until the deathcount has already surpassed catastrophic levels.

zer0spunk
Nov 6, 2000

devil never even lived

PederP posted:

Also, the law of large numbers. There are a very large number of surfaces, and some of get touched by a lot of people during a day. Even if the chance of surface transmission is low - there are a lot of elevator buttons, doorknobs, handles, office coffee machines, ATMs, etc.

This also goes for the weird mystery spread. The chance of transmission by someone infected pooping and flushing with the lid up to the next person walking into the toilet stall is probably incredibly low - but there are a lot of toilet stalls. Virions are generally brittle things that get murdered by all kinds of things, but there are certainly numerous very particular combinations of humidity, temperature and random stuff, that are perfect for transporting them around safely. It's completely impossible to document all possible infection vectors, and it's not even rational to try and address them all.

The rational way to fight this virus is simply to reduce the average number of contacts with other people - number of unique individuals, number of exposures and duration of exposures. Masks are fine. Hand hygiene is *very* good, because it also prevents all kinds of other nasty stuff. Distancing is fine. But I'm absolutely sure the reason why even soft lockdowns seem to work well is that they affect contact numbers.

Both of these is why you are right about the situation in America - the degree of contact reduction needed to get things under control correlates with prevalence. Once prevalence is high, the law of large numbers makes even the weird transmission vectors a real problem.

If the US doesn't get this under control very soon, I worry it will need an incredibly harsh lockdown to get this under control, and considering the political climate and level of unrest I'm not sure that's possible without bloodshed until the deathcount has already surpassed catastrophic levels.

the president and the VP (head of the covid taskforce) have both said numerous times they won't have a second lockdown, as recent as yesterday

quote:

“We really believe, and I know your governor does, too, and I can assure you that your president does, that we don’t have to choose between good health and a strong economy,” Pence said. “The American people know that America works when America is working.”

Pence said he had no concerns about having parts of the Republican National Convention in Jacksonville next month, and saw no reason to encourage DeSantis to retreat further on the state’s economic reopening.

mike pence also believes in a bearded man in the sky who hates gay sex soooooooooooo

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames
Someone said here or in the cool zone, that Trump was taking plasma so he doesn't care and will always be safe. Anyone know what that means? Like blood plasma taken from people with antibodies? Is that smart, and why can't they work on ramping that up if it is?

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Michael Corleone posted:

Someone said here or in the cool zone, that Trump was taking plasma so he doesn't care and will always be safe. Anyone know what that means? Like blood plasma taken from people with antibodies? Is that smart, and why can't they work on ramping that up if it is?

Getting plasma with antibodies is a very temporary (and expensive/resource intensive) measure. Your body isn't making the antibodies and they don't last forever so you'd have to keep getting transfusions from people who already recovered. Seems like that would make it hard to scale up.

Anyways, I haven't seen any confirmation of how well it works with covid, much less that Trump is doing it so you have to take that stuff with a grain of salt.

feelix
Nov 27, 2016
THE ONLY EXERCISE I AM UNFAMILIAR WITH IS EXERCISING MY ABILITY TO MAKE A POST PEOPLE WANT TO READ

Michael Corleone posted:

Someone said here or in the cool zone, that Trump was taking plasma so he doesn't care and will always be safe. Anyone know what that means? Like blood plasma taken from people with antibodies? Is that smart, and why can't they work on ramping that up if it is?

sounds like an Internet expert making poo poo up OP

zer0spunk
Nov 6, 2000

devil never even lived
are you sure they didnt mean one of these OP?



in reference to this picture:

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

That photo always makes me think Trump looks like Elron Hubbard for some reason.

Blitter
Mar 16, 2011

Intellectual
AI Enthusiast

Mozi posted:

but how long did it take them to publicly change that opinion?

It's like the brain rot that is US culture means:

a) anything you read is either absolutely true, or deliberately misleading depending on what you already believe

b) observation -> hypothesis -> evidence -> conclusion is a optional process just pick your fav

c) my confirmation bias represents the only non-conspiracy based truths, because intellectual freedom???!



feelix posted:

sounds like an Internet expert making poo poo up OP

Oh i almost forgot

d) smug denial based on total ignorance and/or stupidity

Yes temporary immunity from plasma is a thing have you finished high school?

zer0spunk
Nov 6, 2000

devil never even lived

Blitter posted:



d) smug denial based on total ignorance and/or stupidity

Yes temporary immunity from plasma is a thing have you finished high school?

...they were saying trump being reckless because he gets secret daily plasma infusions sounds like a dumb internet rumor...

i agree with that statement

feelix
Nov 27, 2016
THE ONLY EXERCISE I AM UNFAMILIAR WITH IS EXERCISING MY ABILITY TO MAKE A POST PEOPLE WANT TO READ

Blitter posted:

Yes temporary immunity from plasma is a thing have you finished high school?
I have a PhD in a STEM discipline :smug:

The expert in question was making up the knowledge about what medical treatments Trump is or isn't receiving, not that it's possible to get immunity from plasma. Hell, haven't there been calls for people who tested positive for antibodies to donate for weeks or months now?

Blitter
Mar 16, 2011

Intellectual
AI Enthusiast

feelix posted:

I have a PhD in a STEM discipline :smug:

The expert in question was making up the knowledge about what medical treatments Trump is or isn't receiving, not that it's possible to get immunity from plasma. Hell, haven't there been calls for people who tested positive for antibodies to donate for weeks or months now?

Well poo poo apparently i should add myself to e) jump to conclusions based on poor reading comprehension

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames
If we could get access to that orb again I think it might solve it all, but I'm an optimist.

Not really, thinking about buying and wearing a face shield when I go out. IDGAF what I look like in these trying times. I know you can get it from your eyes and non mask wearers breath all over you. Then I come home with a face soaked of sweat from my mask. So yeah we are all going to die.

WILDTURKEY101
Mar 7, 2005

Look to your left. Look to your right. Only one of you is going to pass this course.

zer0spunk posted:

are you sure they didnt mean one of these OP?



in reference to this picture:


Do not try to escape. You are in my control. Look at me, I am the sum of all evils. Look carefully, my power infests all times, all galaxies, all dimensions. But many still seek me out; a green jewel they must possess.

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

https://twitter.com/pepys_diaries/status/1279091971798286336?s=21

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

PederP posted:

If the US doesn't get this under control very soon, I worry it will need an incredibly harsh lockdown to get this under control, and considering the political climate and level of unrest I'm not sure that's possible without bloodshed until the deathcount has already surpassed catastrophic levels.

Hell yeah :killing:

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

Hail Satan

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



hail satan

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:

OMFG FURRY
Jul 10, 2006

[snarky comment]
remember the alamo

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.


Has America ever been in this situation, maybe during the wars

OMFG FURRY
Jul 10, 2006

[snarky comment]

OMFG FURRY posted:

remember the alamo

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

Has America ever been in this situation, maybe during the wars

Are you asking if America has ever been in a situation where a pandemic was filling hospitals

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

I don’t know man.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Maybe?

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

Has America ever been in this situation, maybe during the wars

i'm german, so i dunno


relatedly tho:

https://twitter.com/BeausWife2/status/1279109597240983552

Tipps
Apr 18, 2006


party in the front

business in the back


The more you look at it, the worse it gets.

Slippery
May 16, 2004


Muscles Boxcar

Michael Corleone posted:

This is a Trump friendly forum friend, America is great again, get your commie rear end out of here! /s

For just an instant I had flashbacks to a BBS I used to post on where, in order to end the message and post it, you had to type

/s

Wile E. Toyota
Jul 18, 2008

Under no circumstances should you be proud of someone for wearing flip-flops.
Well, my aunt and uncle decided it was a good idea to not only take their kids to a birthday party, but to send them to week-long summer camp afterwards. They just found out today that one of the kids who had been at camp last week tested positive, meaning their camp counselor was exposed. Everyone was sent home and now aunt, uncle, and kids are quarantining until the counselor gets a negative test result. Hopefully. Thank goodness they found out today, because they wanted to get the whole fam together tomorrow for 4th of July. One member of our family has bone cancer, my grandpa has polio, and my grandma weighs 93 pounds.

I live in Texas, and this is the poo poo people do.

There Bias Two
Jan 13, 2009
I'm not a good person


Is there a source for this?

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

Tipps posted:



The more you look at it, the worse it gets.

All I see is many top-tier forums avatars in a single picture

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames

There Bias Two posted:

Is there a source for this?

I'd just assume there is, we are in hell world now.

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:

There Bias Two posted:

Is there a source for this?

From the phone of a Dallas EMT i know.

Kaiju Cage Match
Nov 5, 2012




Tipps posted:



The more you look at it, the worse it gets.

Is Biden holding a bra?

zer0spunk
Nov 6, 2000

devil never even lived

Kaiju Cage Match posted:

Is Biden holding a bra?

i'm the concerned sheeple sheep

teardrop
Dec 20, 2004

by Pragmatica

Michael Corleone posted:

Someone said here or in the cool zone, that Trump was taking plasma so he doesn't care and will always be safe. Anyone know what that means? Like blood plasma taken from people with antibodies? Is that smart, and why can't they work on ramping that up if it is?

The sun is a giant ball of plasma you see, and Trump takes a big dose to the eyeballs by staring straight at it. That powers up his malaria medicine to fight the virus. Yes, that is smart, and no we can’t ramp that up because it relies on magical thinking.

teardrop fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Jul 3, 2020

spacetoaster
Feb 10, 2014

Michael Corleone posted:

Someone said here or in the cool zone, that Trump was taking plasma so he doesn't care and will always be safe. Anyone know what that means? Like blood plasma taken from people with antibodies? Is that smart, and why can't they work on ramping that up if it is?

They're saying that if you have coronavirus it's possible that getting an infusion of convalescent plasma makes the symptoms less serious and the time you're sick shorter.

https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/dlp/plasma-donations-from-recovered-covid-19-patients.html

I have no idea about just getting infusions to prevent anything.

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E

Wile E. Toyota posted:

Well, my aunt and uncle decided it was a good idea to not only take their kids to a birthday party, but to send them to week-long summer camp afterwards. They just found out today that one of the kids who had been at camp last week tested positive, meaning their camp counselor was exposed. Everyone was sent home and now aunt, uncle, and kids are quarantining until the counselor gets a negative test result. Hopefully. Thank goodness they found out today, because they wanted to get the whole fam together tomorrow for 4th of July. One member of our family has bone cancer, my grandpa has polio, and my grandma weighs 93 pounds.

I live in Texas, and this is the poo poo people do.

Tell them they are famous and on the nations news!

Z the IVth
Jan 28, 2009

The trouble with your "expendable machines"
Fun Shoe

spacetoaster posted:

I have no idea about just getting infusions to prevent anything.

Repeated transfusions have the potential to lead to some pretty nasty side effects as well.

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Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

smoobles posted:

All I see is many top-tier forums avatars in a single picture

Wait a minute, does the artist (and presumably a large group of idiots) really think wearing a mask cuts off oxygen? Despite everyone walking around them with masks on and distinctly not falling over dead without oxygen?

Like, could we also convince these people to believe in fan death?

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