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Libluini posted:Man, the Süddeutsche is really starting to sound rather harsh. They report that the block around the Dutch is now called the "Miserly Four" and that Italy's premier said the Miserly Four are holding Europe hostage. Meanwhile the Dutch press is basically "many other EU countries secretly agree with us, they are just letting Rutte be the bad guy and are happy to not catch any flak"
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Jul 20, 2020 06:06
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Apparently our prime minister is pushing for a strong mechanism to withhold EU funding to countries that undermine their justice system's independence. Guess that is one way to reduce the amount of money you need to pay into the system. Definitely needed though. We should also withhold EU funding to countries that think they don't need the income from corporate tax. I mean, they're saying they don't need money.
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Jul 20, 2020 06:42
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Cat Mattress posted:We should also withhold EU funding to countries that think they don't need the income from corporate tax. I mean, they're saying they don't need money.
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Jul 20, 2020 07:13
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frankly, going for another big fiscal centralisation of the union was always going to see resistance from people in small but rich countries. those countries have no reason to want to empower germany and france more at their own expense, and will likely see themselves lose out on any such arrangement - where the big countries will see their influence amplified and the poorer ones will see some fiscal transfers, these countries stand to lose on both ends. it's hard to say that it's a wrong line of thought, given the dog's dinner that's been made of european solidarity in previous years and the constitutional weakness of the Union
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Jul 20, 2020 08:22
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Entropist posted:Meanwhile the Dutch press is basically "many other EU countries secretly agree with us, they are just letting Rutte be the bad guy and are happy to not catch any flak" In the Dutch perception Rutte is sighing while he draws his katana to make some austerity cuts.
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Jul 20, 2020 08:38
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V. Illych L. posted:frankly, going for another big fiscal centralisation of the union was always going to see resistance from people in small but rich countries. those countries have no reason to want to empower germany and france more at their own expense, and will likely see themselves lose out on any such arrangement - where the big countries will see their influence amplified and the poorer ones will see some fiscal transfers, these countries stand to lose on both ends. I think there's also just generally a zero-sum view of economic development in the EU. I don't know what the Netherlands and Austria thinks they're up to. But, for Sweden — and especially Denmark on account of its currency peg — opposition to redistribution implicitly seems to be about a fear of 'poorer' economies catching up. In other words, becoming more competitive. Economic redistribution is seen as a loss, even though we're all each others trading partners and would all benefit from higher aggregate demand. Listen to the rhetoric used by Sweden to motivate why the aid should be loans. We would 'lose' otherwise as they wouldn't have to pay back. As if the entire region stagnating for another decade wouldn't generate even greater losses. MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 10:18 on Jul 20, 2020 |
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Jul 20, 2020 10:12
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there's likely something to be said for rich countries not wanting their low-paid workforce to dry up because there's a possibility of a good life back in lithuania or whatever, but that part applies just as much in germany, with the country's need to keep exporting poo poo on the cheap - i do really think that these governments just aren't interested in the EU getting more powers or fiscal transfers becoming a part of the Union's toolkit, probably expecting that in the long term they'll be facing fairly big transfers out on the germans' terms
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Jul 20, 2020 10:22
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Apparently our prime minister is pushing for a strong mechanism to withhold EU funding to countries that undermine their justice system's independence. Guess that is one way to reduce the amount of money you need to pay into the system. Definitely needed though. Can you guess which 3 EU countries are putting a hard block on that idea during the summit? MiddleOne posted:I think there's also just generally a zero-sum view of economic development in the EU. I don't know what the Netherlands and Austria thinks they're up to. But, for Sweden — and especially Denmark on account of its currency peg — opposition to redistribution implicitly seems to be about a fear of 'poorer' economies catching up. In other words, becoming more competitive. Economic redistribution is seen as a loss, even though we're all each others trading partners and would all benefit from higher aggregate demand. The entire population of the Netherlands (with a handful of exceptions) has pretty much hard-bought into the 'ant and grasshopper' narrative during the Eurocrisis, and they're locked into FYGM with no end in sight. Junior G-man fucked around with this message at 10:42 on Jul 20, 2020 |
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Jul 20, 2020 10:38
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Junior G-man posted:Can you guess which 3 EU countries are putting a hard block on that idea during the summit? I honestly can't tell if it's a stalling tactic or if the countries trying to bring it into the soup are that deluded. Frugal four: Hey Orban how about we write in a clause that Hungary gets no money if you don't stop being a dictator? Orban: Nah, I'm fine vetoing that Frugal four: But then you won't get our money? Orban: I'm sure the narrative of northern Europe disrespecting our democracy and actively sabotaging the Hungarian economy would play just as well in my state controlled media, you do you I mean my loving god. The only way it gets in is by being neutered to the point where it would make no difference. Eliminating the entire point of this detour. Junior G-man posted:The entire population of the Netherlands (with a handful of exceptions) has pretty much hard-bought into the 'ant and grasshopper' narrative during the Eurocrisis, and they're locked into FYGM with no end in sight. Germany has so much to answer for.
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Jul 20, 2020 10:53
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accepting fiscal transfers like that requires a real faith in european solidarity, which one would have to be a complete rube to have after the last big crisis of course they're going to frame it in a vulgar way, but i sincerely think that the ant/grasshopper thing is mostly just a rejection of the idea that the Union can be relied upon to be equitable in most circumstances, so why let the germans loot your coffers to bribe the south and east?
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Jul 20, 2020 10:59
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So... where do you friends see the EU in 5 years?
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Jul 20, 2020 10:59
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V. Illych L. posted:it's hard to say that it's a wrong line of thought, given the dog's dinner that's been made of european solidarity in previous years and the constitutional weakness of the Union In my country the EU has never been about solidarity. Obviously internal discourse varies between countries, and perhaps even regions within them, so I wouldn't presume it's general but I have never heard a politician argue we should join or remain in the EU for altruism or solidarity. It has always been a matter of "This will be good for us - internal market, trade and jobs" while the skeptics pushed "This will be bad for us - foreigners, bureaucracy and sovereignty,". The point is, it has always been about what benefits US - never if it benefits someone else.
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Jul 20, 2020 11:08
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The EU is a union of unreliable partners all looking out for number 1, which is a very odd basis for a union. It's no surprise that neoliberalism sees competition as baked in, I suppose.
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Jul 20, 2020 11:10
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Dawncloack posted:So... where do you friends see the EU in 5 years? Still scraping along the pavement like the zombie entity it is. Unless the Italians finally give the middle finger to the Euro, then it's all bets off. Owling Howl posted:In my country the EU has never been about solidarity. Obviously internal discourse varies between countries, and perhaps even regions within them, so I wouldn't presume it's general but I have never heard a politician argue we should join or remain in the EU for altruism or solidarity. It has always been a matter of "This will be good for us - internal market, trade and jobs" while the skeptics pushed "This will be bad for us - foreigners, bureaucracy and sovereignty,". The point is, it has always been about what benefits US - never if it benefits someone else. Yeah, there's a deeply fundamental difference between the merchants' attitude of some countries to the EU (trade, jerbs, export) and the 'dreamer' class (integration, shared sovereignty, cultural stuff etc), which is always most on display during EU crises and never, ever gets resolved. It just gets pushed onto the moldy pile of "tomorrow's homework". Junior G-man fucked around with this message at 11:12 on Jul 20, 2020 |
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Jul 20, 2020 11:10
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Owling Howl posted:In my country the EU has never been about solidarity. Obviously internal discourse varies between countries, and perhaps even regions within them, so I wouldn't presume it's general but I have never heard a politician argue we should join or remain in the EU for altruism or solidarity. It has always been a matter of "This will be good for us - internal market, trade and jobs" while the skeptics pushed "This will be bad for us - foreigners, bureaucracy and sovereignty,". The point is, it has always been about what benefits US - never if it benefits someone else. right, but the faith that surrendering a certain amount of power will be reciprocated somewhere down the line is important in justifying any sacrifice solidarity is all about self-interest, after all, but it relies on people believing that their immediate sacrifices pay off down the road through some common purpose, which i think was legitimately present pre-2008. now it's just gone
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Jul 20, 2020 11:16
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In a deep, endless recession as the lessons from the past twenty-five economic crises continue to remain stubbornly unlearned and nothing can break the neoliberal consensus that economic policy should only ever serve to further the interests of the rentiers at the expense of the workers. Global warming will also hit the agriculture of the southern countries, as well as trigger a new migrant crisis as African and Arab climate refugees flee the desertification of their land -- and the wars for resources and general unrest that it causes, cf. how the Syrian civil war was partly caused by several years of bad harvest in a row. Between the continuing recession caused by European policies, the absolute lack of any sort of European solidarity (if anything, the European Union has mostly worked to effectively increase intra-European racism, like with those ants vs grasshopper memes), the predictable result is a blossoming of various -exit portmanteaus (Italy is very likely to leave soon) and a takeover by fascism in several countries.
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Jul 20, 2020 11:24
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yeah the EU is going to stay morbid but not quite dead yet for some time i reckon. next big wave of refugees will probably break it permanently, though
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Jul 20, 2020 11:29
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Current state of play on the budget negotiations from FT, definitely the best source for high level EU stuff. First note: LMAO 390bn in grants, so already nearly halved from the opening gambit of 750bn and thus not nearly as relevant, and that's before you add up all the financial chicanery they'll do to make the actual 30-odd bn turn into thirty times that. Good job you mediocre scumfuckers. quote:
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Jul 20, 2020 11:29
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lmao the libs in portugal are creaming their pants at the notion of the right to veto grant payments if countries failed to stick to their reform promises. cannot wait to keep working and contract a loan for a century old home that costs 250k Honest Thief fucked around with this message at 11:36 on Jul 20, 2020 |
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Jul 20, 2020 11:34
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quote:Mr Macron’s stance was echoed by other leaders including Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who said: “We simply cannot afford to either appear divided or weak.” HAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA As opposed to what you are appearing now?
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Jul 20, 2020 11:35
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Junior G-man posted:Can you guess which 3 EU countries are putting a hard block on that idea during the summit?
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Jul 20, 2020 11:36
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Honest Thief posted:lmao the libs in portugal are creaming their pants at the notion of the right to veto grant payments if countries failed to stick to their reform promises. Wonder if they'll make the Germans finally stop building up such a gross export imbalance lmao.
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Jul 20, 2020 11:36
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I see the EU getting stagnant in the next five years and just struggling to maintain status quo, consensus will become increasingly rare due to countries banding together purely on economic/national interests and playing partisan politics all day long, consequently there will be no way to reform the institutions in any positive way. No matter the outcome, solidarity seems dead in the water, and if any hope to progress along the unification process vanishes too, then I wonder why the countries who are struggling right now should bother to maintain this charade in the future? The last ten years have produced too many grievances.
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Jul 20, 2020 11:41
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Angry Lobster posted:I wonder why the countries who are struggling right now should bother to maintain this charade in the future? The last ten years have produced too many grievances. Hence Italy, it's the giant coughing canary in the smelly coal mine. The mix of neoliberalism, that Italian North-South thing, a massively aged population, giant debt Hindenburg, refugees, and a slagheap of melted political parties can blow at any time, leading to God only knows.
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Jul 20, 2020 11:45
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Angry Lobster posted:No matter the outcome, solidarity seems dead in the water, and if any hope to progress along the unification process vanishes too, then I wonder why the countries who are struggling right now should bother to maintain this charade in the future? The last ten years have produced too many grievances. 12(?) years ago there were talks over seceding the EU due to the nasty reforms imposed on us, along with the imf, and the arguments for remaining are probably the same still, our currency would instantly plummet, our current debt would skyrocket and we have anchored much of our business in turism from the "frugal" countries and the uk but back then we weren't coming from a decade long recession and broken promises so who knows
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Jul 20, 2020 12:07
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Honest Thief posted:12(?) years ago there were talks over seceding the EU due to the nasty reforms imposed on us, along with the imf, and the arguments for remaining are probably the same still, our currency would instantly plummet, our current debt would skyrocket and we have anchored much of our business in turism from the "frugal" countries and the uk I would say about 10-8 years ago but yeah, it would absolutely wreck us. Of course, now a lot of our debt is held by the ecb, so if you want to go full scorched earth.... Its actually amazing how pisspoor though out both the maastritch and Lisbon treaties were. I think there will be a last ditch effort to reform the union, even if you have to leave the problem countries out/behind. We'll probably ditch the southern countries waaayyy earlier than doing anything about hungary or poland. Unless they somehow elect far left goverments then lol. We're going full fortress europa good buddies, cant wait to be shot at by the europa corps for harbouring refugees.
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Jul 20, 2020 12:30
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Yeah I have a really hard time to see anything else than a full corporate fascist union in the future. A liberal market inside EU and a heavily patrolled border. The thing that sucks the most is that most people probably wouldnt mind it at all. Otoh the governments are doing their best to alienate the youth so maybe there can be some hope there..
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Jul 20, 2020 12:56
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Antifa Poltergeist posted:We'll probably ditch the southern countries waaayyy earlier than doing anything about hungary or poland. Oh absolutely, the EPP hegemony will take care of that.
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Jul 20, 2020 12:57
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Salvini will be in power five years from now, right? Clearly the EU's gonna collapse before then if Lega has anything to do with it.
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Jul 20, 2020 13:41
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Lol if you don't think when the Covid dust settles that there will be shifts in politics everywhere. Esp a push towards nationalism and rejection of ANYONE CONTROLLING ARE BORDERS BUT (fascist leaning country here) we are leaving the EU etc etc.
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Jul 20, 2020 16:14
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MiddleOne posted:I think there's also just generally a zero-sum view of economic development in the EU. I don't know what the Netherlands and Austria thinks they're up to. But, for Sweden — and especially Denmark on account of its currency peg — opposition to redistribution implicitly seems to be about a fear of 'poorer' economies catching up. In other words, becoming more competitive. Economic redistribution is seen as a loss, even though we're all each others trading partners and would all benefit from higher aggregate demand. That's an interesting take on it that I haven't seen before! It does fit completely into the general narrative that the EU is fundamentally going to remain broken in some fashion because Europeans will continue to identify with their own nation-states over a general "EU", so it's just an endless poo poo-show of half-assery and races to the bottom in one way or the other. But the Germans haven't invaded anyone for some time now, so it definitely could be worse...
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Jul 20, 2020 17:19
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Rappaport posted:But the Germans haven't invaded anyone for some time now, so it definitely could be worse... Well the US army is still already right there in Germany. Also the German army is only equipped with broomsticks now.
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Jul 20, 2020 20:59
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why everyone keeps calling them the frugal four, did they just named themselves that and no one blinked?
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Jul 21, 2020 01:08
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Honest Thief posted:why everyone keeps calling them the frugal four, did they just named themselves that and no one blinked? You see, they went out into space one time in a really cheap rocket...
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Jul 21, 2020 04:52
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Grants cut by 22% and a — in the grade scale of things — tepid give on rebates. What a shitshow, so much time and potential wasted for absolutely nothing of substance except the fund being marginally worse.
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Jul 21, 2020 06:11
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Honest Thief posted:why everyone keeps calling them the frugal four, did they just named themselves that and no one blinked? No. Depending on preference you also have miserly and stingy on the menu. Apparently French and German diplomats started the Miserly Four psy-op counter-attack during a late night this weekend and Merkel and Macron is currently in a photoshoot pissing on piles of Legos, meatballs and wooden shoes to further ramp up pressure..
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Jul 21, 2020 07:09
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MiddleOne posted:Grants cut by 22% and a — in the grade scale of things — tepid give on rebates. What a shitshow, so much time and potential wasted for absolutely nothing of substance except the fund being marginally worse. Too many loving theatrics aimed at their national electors, what a sad display. Also Hungary gets everything it wanted for free, Orban has taugth us all the lesson that you can be a literal fascist dictator inside the EU without any consequence whatsoever as long as you don't cost the EU too much money.
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Jul 21, 2020 07:37
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MiddleOne posted:Grants cut by 22% and a — in the grade scale of things — tepid give on rebates. What a shitshow, so much time and potential wasted for absolutely nothing of substance except the fund being marginally worse. At least Rutte didn't get his dumb Corona-Veto. Small things, and all that 
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Jul 21, 2020 08:02
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Dutch news reports there is a veto. Dutch news also reports Rutte is very happy with the results, so I'm sure the results are a fractal of poo poo.
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Jul 21, 2020 08:27
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Not a real veto. There's qualified majority approval of the reform plans to present for access to the funds. That means the demon cracker nations of the north at least need to do some basic maneuvering to get one of the big four on board with obstructing a particular country's access to the money. E: also, the miserly four got a significant rebate on eu contributions mortons stork fucked around with this message at 08:37 on Jul 21, 2020 |
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Jul 21, 2020 08:32
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