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Deteriorata posted:Manufacturers love dealers. They serve as a buffer to even out production and as a layer of financial protection. They have no interest in selling directly to the consumer. What about the other side of the coin? It seems manufacturers are shackled to the service and support infrastructure that they don't control, and seem to have a bunch of perverse incentives placed on them by the dealer model, that they wouldn't otherwise, especially with regard to new products.
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Jul 30, 2020 00:03
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Controlling the service and support infrastructure is very expensive, and doing that well is difficult (Hello, Tesla!). But, it's really profitable provided you can run it well. I think there is a pretty clear reason that almost every new entrant or attempted entrant in to the space is actively not interested in establishing a dealer network. edit: A bunch of the importers already have separate entities (eg TMM and TMS, Toyota Motor Manufacturing and Toyota Motor Sales), so the buffer argument isn't super compelling. You just have TMS hold the inventory rather than the dealers. It puts a bunch of poo poo on your books but you're gonna generate a lot of free cash that way. You're already financing a large percentage of the end customer sales through a third entity, so it's not like the dealer is serving such a vital purpose other than service, support, and capex on physical space.
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Jul 30, 2020 00:05
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Controlling the service and support infrastructure is very expensive, and doing that well is difficult (Hello, Tesla!). But, it's really profitable provided you can run it well. Interesting. Yeah I imagine it's difficult to do the support on the ground, I just couldn't buy the idea that a company would willingly cut themselves out of a revenue stream. I think I read somewhere that it works differently in Europe, is that true?
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Jul 30, 2020 00:14
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Darchangel posted:Because no one ever buys anything but trucks and SUVs, duh. Any auto manufacturer knows that! Electric pickup could have a market (larger than the nerds in AI, who don't count), but is there a huge electric Hummer market? Although if you assume most of them are used for driving to and from work and looking uncool when you pull up to the club, no reason they need to be ICE. angryrobots posted:Yes, ideally workplace charging becomes the norm which also shifts load to solar, but the article didn't say this was part of their study or the two given scenarios. The problem with workplace charging is it requires such a massive investment to your typical office building, and then I'm assuming they'll want to charge you for the power. But I'm not sure it's worth building the infrastructure to charge you for the power when your typical person wants to park there 8 or 10 hrs a day, then the charger isn't used the rest of the time.
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Jul 30, 2020 00:17
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MomJeans420 posted:Electric pickup could have a market (larger than the nerds in AI, who don't count), but is there a huge electric Hummer market? Although if you assume most of them are used for driving to and from work and looking uncool when you pull up to the club, no reason they need to be ICE. The thought of one of the most obnoxious pieces of poo poo ever turned into a vehicle and usually owned by equally obnoxious assholes returning as a 700+KW EV is hilarious and I sooo hope it comes to pass. I think this is absoltuly brilliant by GM to blow some redneck brains A Hummer with Bugatti Veyron type power and acceleration. Just ponder that for a bit.....
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Jul 30, 2020 00:28
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MomJeans420 posted:The problem with workplace charging is it requires such a massive investment to your typical office building, and then I'm assuming they'll want to charge you for the power. But I'm not sure it's worth building the infrastructure to charge you for the power when your typical person wants to park there 8 or 10 hrs a day, then the charger isn't used the rest of the time.
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Jul 30, 2020 00:29
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:The thought of one of the most obnoxious pieces of poo poo ever turned into a vehicle and usually owned by equally obnoxious assholes returning as a 700+KW EV is hilarious and I sooo hope it comes to pass. I think this is absoltuly brilliant by GM to blow some redneck brains If they charge it on a coal powered grid it'll be even worse environmentally! They're playing to the same audience as before!
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Jul 30, 2020 00:53
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MomJeans420 posted:Electric pickup could have a market (larger than the nerds in AI, who don't count), but is there a huge electric Hummer market? Although if you assume most of them are used for driving to and from work and looking uncool when you pull up to the club, no reason they need to be ICE. I mean yes? Hummers were part of that whole large bof SUV craze of the late 90s/early 00s and was definitely one of the more infamous names in that market. There is still a place in the market for large SUVs and if you're gonna start building an EV version, making a halo version under the hummer name isn't a bad idea.
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Jul 30, 2020 01:03
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Darchangel posted:Capacitive touch switches in a vehicle? No thank you. I have enough trouble using my phone in the car as a passenger. Trying to adjust that poo poo while driving would be a nightmare. Other than that, I'm pretty on board with that. Seems to share some design ideas from the i3?
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Jul 30, 2020 03:28
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angryrobots posted:Seriously though, TOU billing is probably the only reliable way to get most people charging off-peak. If there's a sure-fire way to slow adoption of EVs, you've found it.
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Jul 30, 2020 04:37
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Darchangel posted:Because no one ever buys anything but trucks and SUVs, duh. Any auto manufacturer knows that!
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Jul 30, 2020 11:33
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Godholio posted:If there's a sure-fire way to slow adoption of EVs, you've found it. Why? If I had an available cheaper off-peak rate to take advantage of, it would make an EV more attractive financially?
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Jul 30, 2020 13:08
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Are there regulations on how big an AC unit you can install in the US? Aren't huge central units pretty ubiquitous? Big ones must be multi-kW for sure. And in the peak hours of the late afternoon, people arrive home, open doors, let in hot air, the AC whirrs away no problem, the grid doesn't explode.
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Jul 30, 2020 13:33
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Ola posted:Are there regulations on how big an AC unit you can install in the US? Aren't huge central units pretty ubiquitous? Big ones must be multi-kW for sure. And in the peak hours of the late afternoon, people arrive home, open doors, let in hot air, the AC whirrs away no problem, the grid doesn't explode. Yes, most houses where it gets hot will have 4-10 kW of AC. I believe overall consumption has been flat or declining since the 2008 recession as well.
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Jul 30, 2020 14:11
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Ola posted:Are there regulations on how big an AC unit you can install in the US? Aren't huge central units pretty ubiquitous? Big ones must be multi-kW for sure. And in the peak hours of the late afternoon, people arrive home, open doors, let in hot air, the AC whirrs away no problem, the grid doesn't explode. The grid definitely does. Rolling blackouts are a thing. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/major-u-s-cities-face-more-blackouts-under-climate-change/ https://www.keranews.org/post/roundup-rolling-blackouts-threatened-texas https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/fort-worth/article227123479.html
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Jul 30, 2020 14:15
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big crush on Chad OMG posted:The grid definitely does. Rolling blackouts are a thing. Perhaps this is a Texas problem? Here in the northeast there is huge over capacity, I'd assumed this is why my utility has no real interest in pushing TOU car charging. They have some plans, and are rolling out initiatives that allow them to pull charging data (including directly from Tesla which is cool), but the cost savings don't make any of it worthwhile.
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Jul 30, 2020 14:24
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My home is heated by a heat pump with resistive backup heat. When the backup heat is engaged, it alone pulls 10kW. The only thing that blows up in this case is my electric bill. Seriously though... Wouldn't TOU charging programs kinda fall apart once there are enough EVs? I mean if everyone is charging at night, then you are just creating another peak... In my state (Indiana), TOU programs are not currently allowed. Regulations were only recently changed (in 2018) to allow electric companies to install smart meters. I would imagine TOU will follow the distribution of smart meters. (my home was switched to one just months ago).
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Jul 30, 2020 14:28
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MomJeans420 posted:The problem with workplace charging is it requires such a massive investment to your typical office building, and then I'm assuming they'll want to charge you for the power. But I'm not sure it's worth building the infrastructure to charge you for the power when your typical person wants to park there 8 or 10 hrs a day, then the charger isn't used the rest of the time. This is the occasional reminder that I know of at least one FAA facility that spent thousands of dollars (more probably multiple tens of thousands) installing L2 EV chargers, and immediately locked the breakers open to make sure no one “stole” (that is a word actually used in an email chain on the subject by a manager) $3 worth of electricity from the government. This situation has now existed for multiple years with no resolution, since not only can they not figure out how to meter the power, they can’t figure out how to accept payment either.
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Jul 30, 2020 14:29
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sanchez posted:Perhaps this is a Texas problem? Here in the northeast there is huge over capacity, I'd assumed this is why my utility has no real interest in pushing TOU car charging. They have some plans, and are rolling out initiatives that allow them to pull charging data (including directly from Tesla which is cool), but the cost savings don't make any of it worthwhile. It’s a concern anywhere there is extreme heat. Climate change isn’t helping.
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Jul 30, 2020 14:29
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MrYenko posted:This is the occasional reminder that I know of at least one FAA facility that spent thousands of dollars (more probably multiple tens of thousands) installing L2 EV chargers, and immediately locked the breakers open to make sure no one “stole” (that is a word actually used in an email chain on the subject by a manager) $3 worth of electricity from the government. This situation has now existed for multiple years with no resolution, since not only can they not figure out how to meter the power, they can’t figure out how to accept payment either. They must not have consulted anyone, or done much if any research. There are companies out there with turnkey solutions to do just that. ChargePoint comes to mind.
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Jul 30, 2020 14:32
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sanchez posted:Perhaps this is a Texas problem? Here in the northeast there is huge over capacity, I'd assumed this is why my utility has no real interest in pushing TOU car charging. They have some plans, and are rolling out initiatives that allow them to pull charging data (including directly from Tesla which is cool), but the cost savings don't make any of it worthwhile. Here in Texas the utility company will blow up my phone on days where it’s 100+ begging me to turn my AC to 78.
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Jul 30, 2020 14:35
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stevewm posted:They must not have consulted anyone, or done much if any research. There are companies out there with turnkey solutions to do just that. ChargePoint comes to mind. I know that. You know that. But manager. Its another example of never, ever, ever, under any circumstances, putting the responsibility for something in the hands of someone who isn't affected by the results of their actions and decisions. Except that they did. because manager.
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Jul 30, 2020 15:11
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:When Ford brought the Mustang to Europe a few years back it sold much better than expected even at an absurd price.
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Jul 30, 2020 15:12
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big crush on Chad OMG posted:It’s a concern anywhere there is extreme heat. Climate change isn’t helping. Texas is the only State in the US that doesn't have interties to other States, this is done to dodge Federal regulations on utilities, it's kinda nuts https://www.texastribune.org/2011/0...%20few%20times. This has hilarious consequences for electricity prices in Texas. Federal regulations have really been ramping up in the US following California's rolling brownouts, and that huge blackout on the East Coast a decade ago, they'll be the ones to mandate that utilities upgrade for EVs, of course it's heavily political, so if you live somewhere with a forward-thinking utility you'll probably be fine, if you have PG&E they'll keep burning large sections of your State down.
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Jul 30, 2020 15:20
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Elviscat posted:Texas is the only State in the US that doesn't have interties to other States, this is done to dodge Federal regulations on utilities, it's kinda nuts https://www.texastribune.org/2011/0...%20few%20times. If you don’t die from toxic chemical exposure, don’t worry, PG&E will burn your house down, or maybe blow you up in a natural gas explosion!
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Jul 30, 2020 15:25
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It's not a problem in Florida. The Orlando utility company, OUC, has an option where they can shut off your AC during peak hours in the summer but it's entirely opt in and you barely save any money and they also almost never actually do it even if you opt in. If Florida can get this poo poo together and not have blackouts during the summet I believe in other states being able to figure out electric car charging.
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Jul 30, 2020 15:29
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mobby_6kl posted:I know, it was of the best selling sportscars for a while, maybe still is. But I think it's sill pretty limited to this niche, there's no audience of 16 year old girls with v6 autos that now need a car to haul kids around, nobody grew up with their parent's mustang. So when you say "mustang", the types of people who would buy a diesel Skoda SUV would be like hurrrr. On the other hand, a clean-sheet brand is probably valuable too so people don't get pissy about paying like 70k euro for a fuckin Ford
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Jul 30, 2020 15:57
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Deteriorata posted:Manufacturers love dealers. They serve as a buffer to even out production and as a layer of financial protection. They have no interest in selling directly to the consumer. Volkswagen is pretty much dropping dealerships for the ID. line. You order online, then pick a local dealership to get your car at. The dealership tells you how to drive it and does final inspections. Price is fixed afaik and they just get your signature on the physical paperwork. Dealer gets a pre-established cut from Volkswagen, no price adjustment allowed.
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Jul 30, 2020 16:14
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Westy543 posted:Volkswagen is pretty much dropping dealerships for the ID. line. You order online, then pick a local dealership to get your car at. The dealership tells you how to drive it and does final inspections. Price is fixed afaik and they just get your signature on the physical paperwork. Dealer gets a pre-established cut from Volkswagen, no price adjustment allowed. This is exactly how Tesla gets around states that restrict direct sales. In those states, their locations are not called stores, but instead "galleries". Customers are directed online to order. But pick up the car at that location.
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Jul 30, 2020 16:52
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:The thought of one of the most obnoxious pieces of poo poo ever turned into a vehicle and usually owned by equally obnoxious assholes returning as a 700+KW EV is hilarious and I sooo hope it comes to pass. I think this is absoltuly brilliant by GM to blow some redneck brains I'm with him. CannonFodder posted:Why outlines? It's a Hummer, it's going to be a big boxy thing like all the previous Hummers because that's their design philosophy. Ah. Because *~marketing~*. MrYenko posted:This is the occasional reminder that I know of at least one FAA facility that spent thousands of dollars (more probably multiple tens of thousands) installing L2 EV chargers, and immediately locked the breakers open to make sure no one “stole” (that is a word actually used in an email chain on the subject by a manager) $3 worth of electricity from the government. This situation has now existed for multiple years with no resolution, since not only can they not figure out how to meter the power, they can’t figure out how to accept payment either. Well, if that doesn't typify government concern over "saving" trivial $$ while wasting thousands, I don't know what is. Bum the Sad posted:Here in Texas the utility company will blow up my phone on days where it’s 100+ begging me to turn my AC to 78. Can confirm. Part of that is going to be that Texas is its own grid. e: f,b
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Jul 30, 2020 16:54
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Ola posted:Are there regulations on how big an AC unit you can install in the US? Aren't huge central units pretty ubiquitous? Big ones must be multi-kW for sure. And in the peak hours of the late afternoon, people arrive home, open doors, let in hot air, the AC whirrs away no problem, the grid doesn't explode. It peaks in California in the summer around 6pm, when everyone gets home from work and turns on their AC (and other devices/lights). It makes for an interesting problem with solar because of what's known as the duck curve - solar power drops off right as power usage spikes, so you need to rapidly bring on natural gas power. Here is California's power usage from yesterday, along with the net demand (total demand minus renewables). You can see 10,000MW of power has to ramp up in 3 hours,  
MomJeans420 fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Jul 30, 2020 |
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Jul 30, 2020 18:25
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CannonFodder posted:Why outlines? It's a Hummer, it's going to be a big boxy thing like all the previous Hummers because that's their design philosophy. going to release the Hummer sportscar to complement the Lambo truck
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Jul 30, 2020 18:36
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MomJeans420 posted:It peaks in California in the summer around 6pm, when everyone gets home from work and turns on their AC (and other devices/lights). It makes for an interesting problem with solar because of what's known as the duck curve - solar power drops off right as power usage spikes, so you need to rapidly bring on natural gas power. That is indeed a big fat duck. Sounds like a job for liquid air: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/18/worlds-biggest-liquid-air-battery-starts-construction-in-uk I wonder how many of that it would take to slay the California duck. I'll do integration by squinting and say that the natural gas ramp is linear in both directions from 8 GW to 22 GW over 13 hours.(22-8) * 13 / 2 = 91 GWh of stored solar power required, with a maximum power potential of 22-8 = 14 GW also required. The plant being built in Manchester has 250 MWh. I couldn't find the power rating, but another plant on their website has 350kW/2.5MWh. I'll assume the same ratio, so that the plant in Manchester has 350 kW * 100 = 35 MW. It cost £85M. We needed 91 GWh, so that's 91000/250 = 364 times the Manchester one to kill the California duck. That gives us 35 MW * 364 = 12.74 GW of power which is a bit short. 14 GW / 35 MW then, for 400 Manchesters and a nice even 100 GWh of stored energy. Total cost? £85M * 400 = you'll get change back from $45 billion. That's peanuts. MacKenzie Scott could have paid for 84% of that with the divorce settlement from Jeff Bezos. In terms of tech billionaires it's 1/4 Bezos or 2/3 Musk. Over 10 years, $9.50 per Californian. Should be easily doable. The gas plants are already there, so I guess they can start replacing them one by one. We'll need a lot more solar or other renewables to charge it up during the trough of course and this was just the peak of the gas, not the base. But it was fun to see the numbers at a big scale. The price will probably come down a lot at such a scale, that was just a single demo site. And it's not like the gas plants were free either, if you expand grids somewhere you can go straight to this. The beauty is there's no new tech, no magic breakthrough needed, not a rare earth pebble in sight. Just pumps, tanks and plumbing. Topography doesn't matter, it just needs access to the grid and the atmosphere. Perhaps a bit noisy though and a bit of an eyesore. Some amusing paint on the cryotanks and an energy capturing muffler and we're good to go.
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Jul 30, 2020 19:15
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That's assuming it gets built for the stated cost, which is most likely not going to happen. California has looked into compressed air energy storage before, we don't have the salt caves that other places use but you can just use abandoned oil and gas reservoirs to store the air. However, the costs were so high (as of fairly recently) that it wasn't really an option compared to other forms of storage. I don't remember the numbers, but the state essentially said it wasn't worth it at this time. It's possible that is some sort of amazing breakthrough, but I'd be surprised if it's cheaper to manufacture tanks that can store liquid air in massive quantities than it is to just find a depleted reservoir and pump air into it. Same reason sometimes utilities store natural gas in old reservoirs rather than tanks. Also, to fully replace natural gas you need a lot more than that. I don't feel like trying to sum up the area under the line on the California ISO chart, but a simplistic approach is to take the 90,691 GWh generated in 2018 and divide by 365 to figure out the daily power (which is too low for the max you'll need as it's a lot higher in the summer than in the winter), which is 248 GWh. You need to store 248 GWh of power, but you also now need to generate an additional 248 GWh/day so it can be stored.
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Jul 30, 2020 20:02
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angryrobots posted:Why? If I had an available cheaper off-peak rate to take advantage of, it would make an EV more attractive financially? Because the utility will crank your other rates up to avoid taking a loss. Or at least that's how it works here. Our TOU plan has 3 rates. The late night rate is about half the normal rate, the peak rate is 4x the normal rate, and there's an early morning rate that's slightly below normal. It doesn't tip the scales in the customer's favor. Thank god its opt-in.
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Jul 30, 2020 20:21
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Yeah there's definitely a lot more to it than just that, it was just for perspective. Then there's the round trip efficiency, so we need even more solar, etc. But it wasn't an infeasible sum to do just that. I wonder what building that many natural gas plants would cost. For another comparison, Tesla's big battery in Australia was $161 million for 193 MWh, $830k per MWh. The Manchester liquid air plant is 250 MWh for $111 million, $444k per MWh. Storing compressed air is not even close. If you've tried a duster can which you pump up vs one which comes with liquid in it, you know what I mean. The stored energy is tiny vs the huge volume you need, it's entirely dependent on special geographic resources , it's probably not entirely air tight etc. Storing liquefied air gives orders of magnitude more potential energy per unit of stored volume, it's entirely independent of special geographic resources and the act of actually storing liquified air is entirely trivial, it's just an insulated steel tank and it's done all over the world every day, they're even hauled by trucks. I've posted this before, check if out if you haven't. I really think this is the best way to store energy at grid scale, nothing else will come close in the sum total of cost, ease of use, low tech level, universality, scalability etc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMLu9Dtw9yI
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Jul 30, 2020 20:21
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Godholio posted:Because the utility will crank your other rates up to avoid taking a loss. Or at least that's how it works here. Our TOU plan has 3 rates. The late night rate is about half the normal rate, the peak rate is 4x the normal rate, and there's an early morning rate that's slightly below normal. It doesn't tip the scales in the customer's favor. Thank god its opt-in. What's the rate during the middle part of the day?
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Jul 30, 2020 21:12
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A TOU rate would have to be REALLY cheap for me to bite on it. As it stands my power averages between 9 and 11 cents per kWh depending on usage for the month. They use a scale based on consumption. The first 400kWh is billed at one rate, then next 400kWh at a slightly cheaper rate, and so on. With a poo poo ton of "riders" on top of it. If it wasn't for the riders and "delivery" charges it would probably be like 4-6 cents per kWh.
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Jul 30, 2020 21:41
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angryrobots posted:What's the rate during the middle part of the day? 44.x cents/kW, on the TOU plan. Normal is like 11.
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Jul 30, 2020 21:41
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Godholio posted:44.x cents/kW, on the TOU plan. Normal is like 11. For the entire of the daytime? That's not the way most plans are set up. What are their defined peak times?
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Jul 30, 2020 21:49
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