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Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Xarn posted:

the EU still won't do anything.
What would you want it to do? Stage an invasion to liberate the country and annex it to Glorious Liberal Capitalist Empire of Western Europe? The EU does not have the capacity to do anything else than some token sanctions here and there; even if it somehow had the will to do something.

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HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

Cat Mattress posted:

What would you want it to do? Stage an invasion to liberate the country and annex it to Glorious Liberal Capitalist Empire of Western Europe? The EU does not have the capacity to do anything else than some token sanctions here and there; even if it somehow had the will to do something.

Yep, any twitch by the EU is going to freak out the already paranoid Lukashenka and drive him closer to daddy Pupu up to the whole annexation as a union state thing, not sure what the EU can realistically do here

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Anne Frank Funk
Nov 4, 2008

Add an intricate blood stained Persian rug and you've got an instant classic on your hands

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Well yhat was a whole bunch of nothing? Or something? Im not sure who won. Yesterday was amazing, i live right in the center of basically where everything happened. I went outside when they cut off the internet, stoll dont undestand. We fought with omon, we won i think. I eventually went home to sleep, in the morning nithing changed. We fought the police all night and in the morning went to work everything is in perfect order. Maybe well fight again tobight who knows

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




I mean, there was difinately a rebellion of some sort. And in the morningb everyone actd like nothing happened. Maybe we'll continue tonight after work

VoltairePunk
Dec 26, 2012

I have become Umlaut, destroyer of words

Sekenr posted:

Well yhat was a whole bunch of nothing? Or something? Im not sure who won. Yesterday was amazing, i live right in the center of basically where everything happened. I went outside when they cut off the internet, stoll dont undestand. We fought with omon, we won i think. I eventually went home to sleep, in the morning nithing changed. We fought the police all night and in the morning went to work everything is in perfect order. Maybe well fight again tobight who knows

Stay safe dude

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Thank you. And there was interesting thing светошумовые гранаты, not sure whats it called in english. Grenades that produce a lot of light and noise. First time it shocks you and after fifth time you just shrug it off, we are staying and thats that

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
Ooo! Look at me! NO DON'T LOOK AT ME!



Sekenr posted:

Thank you. And there was interesting thing светошумовые гранаты, not sure whats it called in english. Grenades that produce a lot of light and noise. First time it shocks you and after fifth time you just shrug it off, we are staying and thats that

FlashBangs in English. Also, take a hockey 🏒 stick with you tonight, useful for moving gas grenades.

Maybe even return them to Омон?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
I'm not keen on telegram channels, as you might have noticed, but this is by someone I know, so I'll just post it here.

https://t.me/reflectionbelarus posted:

Many of those who are not in Belarus/Minsk view last night's events as just another brutally suppressed protest and an overall loss for the protesters.

However, from Minsk, from the centre of it all, it doesn't seem like a loss.
1. There were no mass arrests. There were sporadic arrests of people after the fact, brutal and angry, with a sense of frustration and desire for revenge from the police. But generally speaking, the absolute majority of protesters were not affected.
2. The number of victims is very low. Again, isolated cases are terrible and tragic. But for many thousands of protesters, the dozens of people injured is a very low number rather than something extreme.
3. The unprecedented brutality of law enforcement was met by the protesters in kind. The most trained and well-equipped policemen and soldiers from all over the country were dispatched yesterday in Minsk at the cost of security in other regions. These fighters, with their heavy gear on a hot summer day, were simply exhausted by hours of confrontation with highly mobile groups of protesters. Water cannons and stun grenades resulted in a flashy image, but very little in terms of real results. The security forces did not manage to round up the protesters and crush them, everything was limited to dispersing the crowd.
4. There was an unprecedented level of solidarity and selflessness on display. Lone men throwing themselves at a crowd of law enforcement officers, open doors in flat blocks for those who tried to hide from the police. Signaling cars all over the city in the night, and then again in the morning.
5. The protesters did nothing to warrant such a harsh response from law enforcement. Nobody tried to occupy any government buildings, nobody even moved towards them. The goal was to show that we can't live like this anymore, and that was successfully accomplished yesterday.

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




I don;t know if there are any intelligence analysts like brown moses and hopefully not a mercenary piece of poo poo like brown moses in this thread or of they even care, but I have a bit of information. When I went out fro the first time I immediately ran into a group who very determinately was walking into epicenter of events. I wanted to start talking to them to join because safety in numbers and than I heard them speak to one another, they had very distinct accent. they were russian and than it just clicked together they were not a group. they were a UNIT. I laughed about Lukashenko's paranoid vision of life but I swear on my life that I understood this correctly.

Necronormiecon
Mar 12, 2019

Farewell, sweet Nerevar. Better luck on your next incarnation.
Is there some sort of a central coordination website that would tell me what to do and where to go? Or is this over? The internet is still (mostly) down. I managed to unfuck my windows laptop with Psiphon app. iOS App Store is permanently down so phone internet won’t function without a vpn. I’m embarrassingly underprepared.

Necronormiecon fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Feb 3, 2021

Freakazoid_
Jul 5, 2013


Buglord

Muad'Dib! Muad'Dib!

a pipe smoking dog
Jan 25, 2010

"haha, dogs can't smoke!"
I still struggle to understand the dynamic between Lukashenko and Putin. Putin was the first person to congratulate him on his win, but Lukashenko is also saying that Putin is sending in his little green men to annex Belarus?

Are they allies or aren't they? If they are, is the little green man thing just an act by Lukashenko and why? and if they aren't allies what does Putin gain from defending Lukashenko, surely if he does actually want to take over Belarus it serves his interest to see Lukashenko overthrown so he can do his thing and get someone more pliable in charge?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Necronormiecon posted:

Is there some sort of a central coordination website that would tell me what to do and where to go? Or is this over? The internet is still (mostly) down. I managed to unfuck my windows laptop with a Psiphon app. iOS App Store is permanently down so phone internet won’t function without a vpn. I’m embarrassingly underprepared.

Not to my knowledge, no. Right before it started it looked like there would be no protest at all, because Tikhonovskaya didn't want to lead the protest herself. Then it just happened.

Sekenr posted:

I don;t know if there are any intelligence analysts like brown moses and hopefully not a mercenary piece of poo poo like brown moses in this thread or of they even care, but I have a bit of information. When I went out fro the first time I immediately ran into a group who very determinately was walking into epicenter of events. I wanted to start talking to them to join because safety in numbers and than I heard them speak to one another, they had very distinct accent. they were russian and than it just clicked together they were not a group. they were a UNIT. I laughed about Lukashenko's paranoid vision of life but I swear on my life that I understood this correctly.

I have no doubt Russia tried to do something, but Russian accents? Come on. Half of the country speaks the Russian completely indistinguishable from that spoken in Russia. Unless they were speaking in some cartoonish Cossack dialect, of course, but even then I'm not entirely sure what their goal here would be. Russia supports Lukashenko now. It's evident by the fact that Belarusian investigation has concluded that Wagner mercenaries were actually hired by Ukrainians, and all Russian state propaganda is back to singing him praise.

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Necronormiecon posted:

Is there some sort of a central coordination website that would tell me what to do and where to go? Or is this over? The internet is still (mostly) down. I managed to unfuck my windows laptop with a Psiphon app. iOS App Store is permanently down so phone internet won’t function without a vpn. I’m embarrassingly underprepared.

There isn't :D Its chaos now, open the window and if you hear chanting, go there

quote:

I still struggle to understand the dynamic between Lukashenko and Putin. Putin was the first person to congratulate him on his win, but Lukashenko is also saying that Putin is sending in his little green men to annex Belarus?

Are they allies or aren't they? If they are, is the little green man thing just an act by Lukashenko and why? and if they aren't allies what does Putin gain from defending Lukashenko, surely if he does actually want to take over Belarus it serves his interest to see Lukashenko overthrown so he can do his thing and get someone more pliable in charge?

They have complicated relationship. Lukasheko is an ally from hell who will opportunisticly backstab Putin for any kind of gain and later pretend like nothing happened

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

I've always understood Putin's take on Lukashenko as "he's a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch."

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

I've always understood Putin's take on Lukashenko as "he's a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch."

They've been trying to paint him as a crazy Belarusian nationalist for a couple of years now, just to have some leverage, but that sort of propaganda only worked on some Russians. They would gladly have someone who is 100% their guy, as opposed to Lukashenko who is actually willing to confront Russia, even if for his personal gains that may or may not align with Belarus' best interest. But there is literally nobody who they could realistically install should Lukashenko be ousted, so they're stuck with supporting him during elections and immediately switching back to painting him as a mad bulbash once protests die down.

Necronormiecon
Mar 12, 2019

Farewell, sweet Nerevar. Better luck on your next incarnation.
Early ish into his presidency Vlad and crew pulled a ~~ Southern Strategy ~~ by pivoting to the conservative Russian masses. Right-wing politics is about appearances, gestures and projecting a powerful self-image. This becomes increasingly harder and harder to do because “Russian soft power” is one of the world's shortest jokes. I, a regular Ivan, might start asking uncomfortable questions. “How can Vlad protect me against the homofashisti if he can’t even influence the events in the neighbouring Belarus?”

Scratch Monkey
Oct 25, 2010

👰Proč bychom se netěšili🥰když nám Pán Bůh🙌🏻zdraví dá💪?

"Ecce ОМОН"

HorseBodyInspector
Dec 14, 2018
Looks like Lukashenko is preparing for another protest night:

https://twitter.com/Fbeyeee/status/1292803358793912320

goblin week
Jan 26, 2019

Absolute clown.
Big fan of Polish armchair strategists saying we have to support Lukashenko because otherwise Russia will annex Belarus and then they’ll be at our doorstep!!!!!

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

goblin week posted:

Big fan of Polish armchair strategists saying we have to support Lukashenko because otherwise Russia will annex Belarus and then they’ll be at our doorstep!!!!!

Where are you seeing this, sounds like Wypok.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Why don't any of these clods ever try to rig their elections so they look believable? Like winning with 55% or 61% of the vote would be perfectly adequate and way less suspicious but no, gotta go for a ridiculous blowout.

I think that the point is not to have some power and an opposition that stands credible at 45% or 39%. The purpose is to have LOTS of power through a strong popular mandate and a weak opposition that is painted as freaks, extremists and contrarians.

The first part is important because with it Lukashenko or Putin can just decide to change the constitution or maybe invade a country or whatever they wish, and they can pretend that the majority is behind them. This also makes it harder for people who don't like the government to speak out, because in the end, we want to get along with the people around us and very few will go publically demonstrating against something that they know 80% of people support.

The latter part is why e.g. in Russia communists and ultra nationalists are allowed to do their thing while moderate opposition parties are cracked down on harshly, because the vocal extremists make the ruling party look like the only adults in the room.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Downtown Minsk is getting blockaded apparently and people on the way there frisked or outright arrested.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

meanwhile,

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1292834280557752320

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Paladinus posted:

I'm not keen on telegram channels, as you might have noticed, but this is by someone I know, so I'll just post it here.

Collected from Twitter posts, for those who are interested:

https://web.telegram.org/#/im?p=@nexta_live
https://web.telegram.org/#/im?p=@UsyLukashenko
https://web.telegram.org/#/im?p=@belamova
https://web.telegram.org/#/im?p=@mkbelarus
https://web.telegram.org/#/im?p=@vybary

Meduza is aggregating most and Twitter sources:
https://meduza.io/en/live/2020/08/10/live-blog-the-day-after-the-election

Catboy Autonomist
Jun 23, 2018

IS IT SUPWISING THAT PWISONS WESEMBWE FACTOWIES, SCHOOWS, WHICH AWW WESEMBWE PWISONS?

It was also literally the flag of Belarus following the fall of the Soviet Union until Lukashenko changed it in 1995

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki
Tsikhanouskaya has most likely been detained after entering the CEC to lodge a dispute

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1292870221942980608

On the other hand she's already stated that she doesn't intend to join the protests directly and they're pretty clearly not being directed by her personally; I'm not really sure why the authorities think this is going to help anything at this point.

That said saying that the authorities are thinking through their response in a careful, planned, measured fashion is perhaps giving them a bit too much credit.

Qtotonibudinibudet fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Aug 10, 2020

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Some interesting if unsurprising takes on the situation

https://twitter.com/joshuayjackson/status/1292578688807120896?s=21

goblin week posted:

Big fan of Polish armchair strategists saying we have to support Lukashenko because otherwise Russia will annex Belarus and then they’ll be at our doorstep!!!!!
Ah, teoria domina.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Few things I’m seeing: paddy wagons are out exclusively out after young men. Quite often they’ll leave women or teens on the street.

There doesn’t seem to be that much capacity in local jails. After the first day, they’re completely full, and it seems protesters are banking on overloading the penitentiary system. Many people released fairly quickly.

There’s zero live weapons. Even the special unit seen and hour or two ago in Minsk is carrying mostly non-lethal.

Protesters are moving across the city in smaller, faster groups, aiming to exhaust the riot geared cops. I’m curious to see how this works out today.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

mobby_6kl posted:

Some interesting if unsurprising takes on the situation

https://twitter.com/joshuayjackson/status/1292578688807120896?s=21

lmao at the idea that paying lots of attention to Belarus would lead one to think its the kind of place with free and fair elections

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

mobby_6kl posted:

Some interesting if unsurprising takes on the situation

https://twitter.com/joshuayjackson/status/1292578688807120896?s=21

tankies who also discovered Belarus two seconds ago and spit the same talking points they do in every such scenario aren't exactly what i'd call interesting--they exist, and it's fun to laugh at them sometimes, but uh... yeah.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!
People, Dumb (LIBS) Just Hearing About Water Finally (laughable): Whoa, seems wet.
Me, Smart Suave Tankie Who Looks Like Michael Jackson Circa Off The Wall: :smugbird: :hampants: :cripes:

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

mobby_6kl posted:

Some interesting if unsurprising takes on the situation

https://twitter.com/joshuayjackson/status/1292578688807120896?s=21

A sensible idiot

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!
belarusknower69

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?
Funny that we just had a discussion about posting election results no one would believe.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

CMYK BLYAT! posted:

Tsikhanouskaya has most likely been detained after entering the CEC to lodge a dispute

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1292870221942980608

On the other hand she's already stated that she doesn't intend to join the protests directly and they're pretty clearly not being directed by her personally; I'm not really sure why the authorities think this is going to help anything at this point.

That said saying that the authorities are thinking through their response in a careful, planned, measured fashion is perhaps giving them a bit too much credit.

Just today KGB stated that they've prevented an assassination attempt on her life by a group of unknown perpetrators who wanted her as a martyr for the upcoming revolution. Things are absolutely wild!

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Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
cripes, that dude's never met a boot he'd not lick, so long as it's red.

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