|
Sorry to spam, but I was wondering why I smelled something funny at The Lincoln Project. They posted a recent ad that was one of the best pro-Biden ads I've seen in a while and I thought it was too spot-on to come from an all-Republican group. Now I know why. https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1293205379913003009 Steve Schale is basically my go-to Florida follow when it comes to Democratic politics, as he was Obama's Florida guy and has been a Biden guy for a long time. Probably was the quickest to know on election day that Hillary was hosed. They're taking advantage of the whole thing that SuperPACs can wink-wink at campaigns, but SuperPACs can talk to other SuperPACs as much as they want, openly. TLP remains bad, but when you have Democratic hacks talking to Republican hacks with the same goal, suddenly a lot fewer things get mistranslated when you're speaking the other's language in ad form. Probably why Biden's team spun Donnie's Payroll Tax Deferral into HEY FLORIDA, HE'S KILLING THE SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND AND YOU DON'T WANT THAT.
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 05:05
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 00:59 |
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HZjLnj7WGM
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 07:57
|
|
|
I hope they both fall off a very tall bridge.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 07:58
|
|
|
Apparently it's not cool to hate on Kamala because of her voting record, and that it's a good thing she got picked because she's a woman of color, since that is the only qualification that some people needed to approve of Biden's running mate.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 11:30
|
|
|
"Biden had learned from his old segregationist ways!" Only black people he worked with have made the police state worse. Right...
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 12:32
|
|
|
Love 2 vote 4 politicians who treat their voters’ serious policy concerns like they asked to have ice cream for dinner, knowing that they have no one else to vote for.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 12:48
|
|
|
A Bad Poster posted:Apparently it's not cool to hate on Kamala because of her voting record, and that it's a good thing she got picked because she's a woman of color, since that is the only qualification that some people needed to approve of Biden's running mate. I saw a very good post yesterday that of course, I forgot to save. Basically it said that voting shouldn't be viewed as marriage, it should be viewed as public transit. Just because the bus doesn't get you all the way to your destination doesn't mean you shouldn't take the one that gets you closest to where you want to go. And it doesn't make sense to just get on the bus going the opposite direction. There's lots about this metaphor that I like, including that people in power have a history of making public transit shittier in this country. Also we are allowed to criticise the transit system even as we take it. Being passenger is not an endorsement, it may be the only option. I dunno, for some reason it clicked in my brain that I can hate on the Kamala / Biden ticket based on their record and policy all I want - it's ok to question people based on their record. egyptian rat race fucked around with this message at 12:56 on Aug 12, 2020 |
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 12:50
|
|
|
The best prediction model of 2016 (it was!) is back: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1293503953750171648?s=19 To save you reading, if there was a "now-cast" model, it would spit out a 93% Biden win because his polls are so high right now. It's still early in electoral terms, so based on past history, there's still a lot that could happen and that's the primary reason for the 71% chance. Personally, I think the election has been set in stone for a long, long time. There's never been another president on TV ALL THE loving TIME, so past history can be chucked aside. I lean closer to the now-cast because everyone's minds were made up long ago, even pre-coronavirus.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 13:34
|
|
|
what the gently caress is she saying there already are severe and swift consequences for violent crime
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 14:06
|
|
|
facialimpediment posted:The best prediction model of 2016 (it was!) is back: quote:Biden is currently ahead in our polling averages in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio and in the second congressional district in Nebraska — all places that Clinton lost in 2016. If he won those states (and held the other states Clinton won), that would be enough to give him 352 electoral votes. He’s also within roughly 1 percentage point of Trump in Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Maine’s second congressional district. If he won those, too, he’d be up to a whopping 412 electoral votes. It's kind of crazy that former perennial bellwether and swing state Iowa is now as Republican as Georgia and Texas.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 14:11
|
|
|
Oh God y'all are really doing 2016 all over again lmao
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 14:36
|
|
|
Proud Christian Mom posted:Oh God y'all are really doing 2016 all over again lmao No we need more quibbling about how the Democratic candidate may not capture the old racist vote and what that means.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 14:43
|
|
|
Porfiriato posted:It's kind of crazy that former perennial bellwether and swing state Iowa is now as Republican as Georgia and Texas. Midwestern/Plaines states without large cities lost the “Corn is King” battle and turned hard right as a result. That and losing the culture war in the 2000s.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 14:49
|
|
|
Porfiriato posted:It's kind of crazy that former perennial bellwether and swing state Iowa is now as Republican as Georgia and Texas. what's crazy is that ethnically diverse and urbanized Texas is so Republican. Iowa is a Chudland Supreme, mild, extra sour cream.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 14:50
|
|
|
US Berder Patrol posted:what's crazy is that ethnically diverse and urbanized Texas is so Republican. Iowa is a Chudland Supreme, mild, extra sour cream. In the case of Texas I like to think of it as Georgia without the redeeming factor of not being in the middle of a wasteland. A bunch of cool modern cities held hostage by the chuds out in the sticks.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 14:56
|
|
|
A Bad Poster posted:Apparently it's not cool to hate on Kamala because of her voting record, and that it's a good thing she got picked because she's a woman of color, since that is the only qualification that some people needed to approve of Biden's running mate. Well, there are a couple things at play: 1. Who the gently caress else do you vote for unless voting GOP because at the executive level, the US is explicitly a two-party system? 2. There are some very online Twitter types who apply purity tests that somehow always mean that maybe Yang and Sanders are acceptable and (maaaybe) Warren, but Harris and Rice and Abrams and Bass don’t work. This raises peoples’  -o-meter. 3. The US in the 80s and 90s pretty much said the one way that it would allow women and especially women of color to rise in power was “toughness” tests. Hence so many military or law enforcement types succeeding in politics where others were less liekly.* Those who have succeeded lately despite that (AOC etc) are either literally too young or just too new to politics to be competitors for national executive office. This stuff largely does not so strictly to local politics, go hog wild. *I guess there was also the dynasty model, but find a political dynasty power couple that’s not similarly problematic. mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 15:11 on Aug 12, 2020 |
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 15:09
|
|
|
facialimpediment posted:The best prediction model of 2016 (it was!) is back: Hey the last time the model gave this result, X happened. Thankfully the model’s result make it clear that X cannot happen.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 15:25
|
|
|
Thwomp posted:Midwestern/Plaines states without large cities lost the “Corn is King” battle and turned hard right as a result. Also looking at Wisconsin that's shifted a fair amount right.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 15:28
|
|
|
I feel like we're having the same conversations from 2016 all over again. "The Dem is trash. I'll hold my nose and vote D but they are a terrible nominee for X, Y, and Z reasons." My only solace is that while Hillary was, by all accounts, warm and gracious in person, she was rather reserved in public (not without reason given what the media put her through in the 70s-90s). Joe appears to be just as friendly and warm in public as in private. As a result, I feel like the resulting "Joe's views are horrible centrist garbage" comments are the same kinds of "Candidate X must comport to my views or else I hate them" that have existed since politics began. I dunno, change my mind. Also, Kamala as a VP pick is a nothingburger outside of being a (past due) representation for women of color in high office. Edit: TCD posted:Also looking at Wisconsin that's shifted a fair amount right. Wisconsin would have always been deep red except for Madison and Milwaukee pulling it blue-ward. Gore and Kerry both only barely carried it, and while Obama won it big in 2008, he only won it by 6 points in 2012. Thwomp fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Aug 12, 2020 |
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 15:32
|
|
|
I said more quibbling damnit!
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 15:33
|
|
|
FrozenVent posted:Hey the last time the model gave this result, X happened. 29% events happen all the time. It’s just the election is a single die roll instead of hundreds.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 15:33
|
|
|
Naramyth posted:29% events happen all the time. It’s just the election is a single die roll instead of hundreds. May their model be full of poo poo for other reasons? Sure! But an unlikely thing occurring is not indicative of that.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 15:53
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1293553573289230337?s=21
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 16:03
|
|
|
Thwomp posted:Wisconsin would have always been deep red except for Madison and Milwaukee pulling it blue-ward. Gore and Kerry both only barely carried it, and while Obama won it big in 2008, he only won it by 6 points in 2012. Wisconsin is... special https://twitter.com/erikhalvorsen18/status/1293246313388277760
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 16:11
|
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:It is constantly annoying to me that this needs to be re-explained again and again. Folks are taking extraordinary measures to ensure that they don't get the coronavirus because there's a 1% chance that they'll die, but a Trump winning with a forecasted 29% likelihood is impossible and a sign that pollsters are full of poo poo. right, sometimes unlikely things happen, so there's no way to judge a predictive model by actual events
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 16:11
|
|
Brute Squad posted:gently caress, that was a fun goldeneye level. And happening at the start of hurricane season. Is Sean Bean ok? 
|
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 16:18
|
|
|
Almost as if human brains are actually really bad at risk assessment and understanding how numbers really work
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 16:20
|
|
|
Doc Hawkins posted:right, sometimes unlikely things happen, so there's no way to judge a predictive model by actual events
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 16:22
|
|
|
RFC2324 posted:Almost as if human brains are actually really bad
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 16:50
|
|
|
That’s just the human brain talking. You can’t trust its judgement.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:03
|
|
|
Andy Richter (@AndyRichter) Tweeted: Not only will Senator Harris be the first Black, Indian, and HBCU-educated woman on a national major party presidential ticket, according to my time line she’ll also be the first anarchist-communist-socialist-centrist-corporatist-cop https://twitter.com/AndyRichter/status/1293341784894869504?s=20
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:06
|
|
|
mlmp08 posted:Andy Richter (@AndyRichter) Tweeted: Andy Richter is hyping Kamala Harris up to be a lot cooler than what she actually is.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:13
|
|
|
That's been his job for the last 27 years oh ho ho
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:15
|
|
|
andy richter owns
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:15
|
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:You're right, but there's no way in hell we're completely redoing the 2016 election even nine more times to see whether Trump only wins a little less than a third of them. An election is not an unknowable random event, it's deterministic, and unpredictable only due to limited information and time. The percentage numbers indicate the model's confidence in the outcome, based on measurements of things which in reality fully determine the result, and based on theories of how and to what degrees they determine it, making a tractable guess of what will happen possible. 538's theories were wrong and have not changed. I think it's Trump's election to lose, but that he still might. If anyone could avoid doing the many things that could easily clinch his victory, it'd be him. e: Biden's campaign continues to be elder abuse. Doc Hawkins fucked around with this message at 17:19 on Aug 12, 2020 |
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:16
|
|
|
I had a dream last night that I got a phone alert that Joe had a stroke and that a subsequent poll found that the american people asked if they were concerned about joe's mental health rose from 6 to 8. I'm not sure what the metric was but it made me laugh in my dream
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:19
|
|
|
The destruction of USPS before November is probably gonna influence the election outcome more than polls, Kamala, debates, etc.
|
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:20
|
|
|
That Works posted:The destruction of USPS before November is probably gonna influence the election outcome more than polls, Kamala, debates, etc. The weirdest part about killing the postal service is that I'm pretty sure it hurts conservative voters, and feasibly candidates, more than Dems. Everything I've read says that conservative voters are more likely to use vote by mail systems and Dems are more likely to wait until election day to vote in person, even when early in person voting is available. I think the game is to try to discourage young voters from turning out, but lol, they weren't more likely to come out of this election than any other one in the last 50 years.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:45
|
|
|
bengy81 posted:The weirdest part about killing the postal service is that I'm pretty sure it hurts conservative voters, and feasibly candidates, more than Dems. Everything I've read says that conservative voters are more likely to use vote by mail systems and Dems are more likely to wait until election day to vote in person, even when early in person voting is available. That's true in normal times, but the perception this year is that Republican voters are less likely to be worried about voting in person due to concerns about Coronavirus and social distancing (because their trusted sources told them it's no big deal), whereas Democratic voters are more likely to decide to vote by mail to avoid potential exposure (because they take the pandemic more seriously). Not sure how accurate the perception is but that's the thinking.
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:50
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 00:59 |
|
|
november is gonna be a blast
|
|
#
?
Aug 12, 2020 17:52
|
|
