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Pain of Mind posted:I did not intentionally forget them, I guess in my random edits I must have left out the "excluding top 5 draft picks that are seen as generational talents" that I thought I had. I can understand why they would go that early. I just figure if CEH was in that ball park he would have been drafted earlier than 32. I am sure you are more knowledgeable about this stuff than I am, as I mentioned I do not follow college ball at all, so I base all of my rookie analysis on comparable rookies from years past from a situation/draft perspective plus write ups/articles. It just seems like in a complete bubble (imagine a perfectly spherical cow) his peers are more the rookies getting drafted in the late second to 4th rounds, not Elliot or Barkley, so at least to me a first round ADP seems a bit much. Obviously draft spot does not correlate with production, stomped on a league for a few years with LeVeon Bell as an 8th round keeper or something like that. It is more likely I am wrong rather than everyone else being wrong. As it is the whole discussion is the difference between ADP 10 and 20. Oh I didn't say that you intentionally forgot them but just that there's a general idea about rookie RBs getting drafted high. Is CEH a generational talent? No, god no. Is CEH really, really good? Absolutely. I had him as my RB4, behind Taylor/Swift/Dobbins and ahead of Akers and Moss. A lot of draft analysts likened him to MJD; Andy Reid said he's better than Brian Westbrook. His peers are going so much later because there's such a mess around them on the depth chart, despite being better players. Taylor has Mack, Dobbins has Ingram, and Swift has Kerryon to deal with. Those guys are all starting somewhere near a timeshare to start with, and need to earn their touches (think rookie Kamara, but with a cleaner path to touches). CEH's biggest competitors for touches are DeAndre Washington, Darwin Thompson, and Darrel Williams. He also plays in what might be one of the greatest offenses of all time and was hand-picked by Andy Reid to go in the first round. His first-round ADP is a combination of offensive firepower, talent, scheme (his biggest weakness is not a part of their offense), depth chart and well... hype. I slate him as an early second-rounder in most drafts though I understand the desire to take him in the first.
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Aug 12, 2020 06:06
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Spoeank posted:Oh I didn't say that you intentionally forgot them but just that there's a general idea about rookie RBs getting drafted high. Sorry, I was not clear, for peers I meant previously drafted RBs in the mid 1st to second round range who were likely to be the starter on their team, not other rookies this year. I fully understand him going before the other rookies this year. Maybe my sample size is not large enough since there are often other RBs floating around on the depth chart that are forgotten once the season starts but not when people are drafting. Chester Taylor for Adrian Peterson, Isaac Redman for Leveon Bell, Tre Mason for Gurley etc. Jacobs is the most obvious comparison in recent memory since he was immediately on the top of the depth chart and he had quite a bit of hype, is the 1.5 round ADP difference mainly playing on that raiders team vs this chiefs team? Pain of Mind fucked around with this message at 06:53 on Aug 12, 2020 |
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Aug 12, 2020 06:49
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You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
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I would call it the difference between the offense being a ridiculous wildcard and the offense being one above-average running back away from preposterously obliterating opposing defenses, yea. But Jacobs parlayed a wildcard offense into being a borderline first rounder this year so 
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Aug 12, 2020 06:57
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Pain of Mind posted:You keep them at the round you draft them in. So as a first rounder he will be a first round pick every year. Appreciate the clarification. However any pick you listed would have that same caveat, so I'd still go with the first-round talent I think will be a higher first-round pick, next year.
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Aug 12, 2020 07:21
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For those of you looking for leagues this year, as many leagues are totally disrupted, consider NarFFL: https://www.reddit.com/r/NarFFL/ https://narffl.com/announcement It's the largest relegation-style league in existence:  A total of 1392 teams. The lottery to enter farm tier opens up this Friday (see announcement post). I joined farm in 2018. My starting record that year after six weeks was so good that I got promoted to minor leagues mid-season to spot fill an inactive owner. In 2019, my record was so good that I was promoted to majors this pre-season to backfill an inactive owner. All promotions are done on merit. It's a well-run league and, given that over 1,300 people are participating it, will probably be around for quite some time. pmchem fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Aug 12, 2020 |
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Aug 12, 2020 12:43
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pmchem posted:For those of you looking for leagues this year, as many leagues are totally disrupted, consider NarFFL: signed up, fingers crossed!
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Aug 12, 2020 17:13
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That's gotta be 1392 TEAMS, right? Not leagues? 
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Aug 12, 2020 17:32
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Poque posted:That's gotta be 1392 TEAMS, right? Not leagues? sorry, yes, early morning brain fart on my part
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Aug 12, 2020 17:40
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https://twitter.com/MikeGarafolo/status/1293569434804682752 This is very sad, just want to get that out there before I talk about Tee Higgins moving up the ADP. Not that John Ross was going to be much of a roadblock
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Aug 12, 2020 17:50
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kiimo posted:I really should have been more cognizant of the fact that people were complaining about Darwin's vision which is a pretty ignored statistic. You must not have read much because the dude is a combine freak that couldn’t even start in college. Drafting him in the 2nd... yeesh
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Aug 12, 2020 20:41
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Interboard League (FF competition among 8 forums, one of which last year was SA) is starting up again. IBL thread is here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3895017&pagenumber=19#post507225241 I don't know who's running the show for SA this year, but, they need to get involved real soon at the official IBL forum. Things are in motion! Will SA have a team this year? I hope so!
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Aug 12, 2020 20:47
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Alfalfa posted:You must not have read much because the dude is a combine freak that couldn’t even start in college. Antonio Gibson is going to make so many people so drat mad. Also the clouds have parted and my 2020 brainworm longshot tight end is ... Josh Oliver. Thank you and goodnight.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:49
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Reading all of these ‘Josh Jacobs thinks he can catch at least 60 balls this year’ giving me strong ‘Gonna feed CJ Spiller the ball til he pukes’ vibes.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:51
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Cervixalot posted:Reading all of these ‘Josh Jacobs thinks he can catch at least 60 balls this year’ giving me strong ‘Gonna feed CJ Spiller the ball til he pukes’ vibes. Yeah. He'll get a few more targets prob, but nothing like the true three down guys.
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Aug 12, 2020 20:54
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Cervixalot posted:Reading all of these ‘Josh Jacobs thinks he can catch at least 60 balls this year’ giving me strong ‘Gonna feed CJ Spiller the ball til he pukes’ vibes. You joke but did you know the CJ Spiller vomit limit is 235 touches
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Aug 12, 2020 21:12
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Alfalfa posted:You must not have read much because the dude is a combine freak that couldn’t even start in college. I had two back to back picks in the second round and took him over Ke'shawn Vaughn. There are a ton of guys who couldn't put it together in college and succeed in the NFL. Dynasty League Football rankings has him as the #17 rookie and I took him 15 so it's not crazy or anything. "RB? WR? Ignore the label and get Gibson the football. Gibson showed out at the Senior Bowl - and while I am leery of giving too much of a boost based on a Postseason all-star event - I felt Gibson is one of the big risers. A potential all-purpose weapon for a creative offense."
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Aug 12, 2020 22:22
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the move if you're hot and bothered for Gibson is to trade like a third next year for him after he falls on his face expectation-wise this year imo
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Aug 12, 2020 23:01
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Would Tee Higgins be the #1 receiver drafted last year?
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Aug 12, 2020 23:38
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Like if he declared for 2019?
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Aug 12, 2020 23:58
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Nah, last year’s class looked pretty good even before guys like McLaurin and Diontae Johnson hd surprise breakouts and bumped up the quality of the class. He’d have probably been drafted behind Harry (RIP), AJ Brown and DK Metcalf in rookie drafts, but obviously hard to alt history it up. On a separate note, the 2019, 2020 and 2021 rookie WR classes look like they are going to be an insane run of talent at the position. 2019 rookie WRs had an 2014-esque year - between Deebo, McLaurin, AJ Brown, Johnson, Metcalf and Marqise Brown in flashes. 2020 looks really good - Lamb, Jeudy, Raegor, Jefferson, Higgins + a ton more. Hell, Bryan Edwards is going late second in rookie drafts, and he broke out at age 17 sharing the field with Deebo in college. Really great depth of talent. Next year has LSU’s Ja’marr Chase, who might have been the best WR in this class; Purdue’s Rondale Moore who had an incredible freshman year breakout, MIN Rashod Bateman, and I haven’t even mentioned the two Alabama WRs who might be first or second round NFL picks. Tl;DR: Future of WR talent looks bright
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Aug 13, 2020 00:28
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kiimo posted:There are a ton of guys who couldn't put it together in college and succeed in the NFL. Please name them. Also you either buy Gibson after he falls on his face or trade your Gibson pick at his current ADP for way better value. That’s how you succeed with Gibson in fantasy/dynasty.
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Aug 14, 2020 03:44
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cool don't take Gibson, enjoy your fantasy championship
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Aug 14, 2020 04:28
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kiimo posted:cool don't take Gibson, enjoy your fantasy championship No names though?
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Aug 14, 2020 17:17
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Alf is trying to get all the shares of Gibson to himself by discouraging us. A reverse Darwin Thompson.
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Aug 14, 2020 17:40
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Aug 14, 2020 18:16
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Alfalfa posted:No names though? I don't really feel like doing homework for you. Every season somebody lists 10 players who will make better pros than college players. Tyreek Hill couldn't start for Oklahoma State and I'm not talking about when he was kicked off. Gibson came up the junior college ranks and played for Memphis and had electric moments. Dynasty drafts are kind of a crap shoot anyway.
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Aug 14, 2020 18:21
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 Dynasty League Question:I need to cut THREE players before the draft, totaling at least $10 in salary. 25 man rosters, $250m salary cap, salaries increase by $1 or 10% each year (whichever is higher). QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLEX(RB/WR/TE) Full PPR Goff, Jared LAR QB $5m Winston, Jameis NOS QB $3m Jackson, Justin LAC RB $3m Jacobs, Josh LVR RB $19m Lewis, Dion NYG RB $3m Lindsay, Phillip DEN RB $11m Michel, Sony NEP RB $10m Mixon, Joe CIN RB $25m Sanders, Miles PHI RB $17m Singletary, Devin BUF RB $10m Anderson, Robby CAR WR $5m Hopkins, DeAndre ARI WR $32m McLaurin, Terry WAS WR $6m Robinson, Allen CHI WR $14m Samuel, Curtis CAR WR $3m Thielen, Adam MIN WR $9m Westbrook, Dede JAC WR $4m Williams, Preston MIA WR $3m Dissly, Will SEA TE $2m Ebron, Eric PIT TE $4m Henry, Hunter LAC TE $5m Who should get the boot? RCarr fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Aug 17, 2020 |
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Aug 14, 2020 19:45
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For WRs, the number that succeed in the NFL and didn’t properly breakout in college (defined as like 20%+ receiving market share or something) is really small. It’s a prerequisite, not a guarantee, of course, plenty of great college players are poo poo pros (hello Josh Doctson). Dunno about RBs, but given they seem so much more situation dependent than WRs, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see college production matter less, though I’d be shocked if it isn’t still somewhat predictive. edit: and just remembered it's not even whether they broke out, breaking out young is much more predictive of being good for fantasy than breaking out as an upper classmen.
sourdough fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Aug 14, 2020 |
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Aug 14, 2020 19:46
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I have kind of a surprise draft situation, and the buy in is $100. To be precise, the draft is in an hour and a half. It’s 0.5 ppr, 10 teams, I have the #2 pick. I’ve been doing a lot of cramming today, but I thought I’d just see who the TAQ darlings are this year. Mostly looking for any good mid-late rounders.
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Aug 15, 2020 01:31
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Doppelganger posted:I have kind of a surprise draft situation, and the buy in is $100. To be precise, the draft is in an hour and a half. It’s 0.5 ppr, 10 teams, I have the #2 pick. I’ve been doing a lot of cramming today, but I thought I’d just see who the TAQ darlings are this year. Mostly looking for any good mid-late rounders. Spoeank is over the moon about antonio gibson
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Aug 15, 2020 01:37
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Don't put that evil on me I do like at their ADP uhhh Matt Stafford, Daniel Dimes, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew Cam Akers, Ronald Jones, Kareem Hunt, Zack Moss, Jordan Howard, Nyheim Hines and Boston Scott (Higher end I like Thielen and Arob), Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, Marvin Jones, Diontae Johnson, Mecole Hardman, N'Keal Harry, Denzel Mims, Laviska Shenault (maybe?) Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, TJ Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Jonnu Smith, Ian Thomas, Dawson Knox and my WILD rear end TIGHT END PICK OF THE YEAR Josh Oliver Spoeank fucked around with this message at 01:52 on Aug 15, 2020 |
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Aug 15, 2020 01:50
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I was hoping more people would chime in im sorry if I make your team bad!!!
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Aug 15, 2020 02:27
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I didn't chime in because I agreed with a lot of what you said. Narrowing it down, Gesicki, jonnu, hunt, Boston Scott (real late), and miles sanders, mclaurin, Marvin Jones, thielen, lockett, and 100% agreement with your qb's and Goff.
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Aug 15, 2020 04:41
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pmchem posted:For those of you looking for leagues this year, as many leagues are totally disrupted, consider NarFFL: as a reminder, the lottery is open now and closes after the weekend! https://www.reddit.com/r/NarFFL/comments/i9skde/the_2020_narffl_lottery_is_now_open_for_72hrs/
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Aug 15, 2020 14:27
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lol it’s that time again https://twitter.com/fantasyfootbub/status/1294418207353245696?s=21
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Aug 15, 2020 15:55
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kiimo posted:lol it’s that time again hmmm the RB2 in that offense could still be useful 
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Aug 15, 2020 15:57
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Spoeank posted:I was hoping more people would chime in im sorry if I make your team bad!!! Can't chime in until I see it! (also way too late now). I like Stafford a lot this year, figure he is the most likely QB to have top 5 potential around the other QBs he is being drafted near in rank order, while also going a few rounds later than they are projected based on ADP. I think I have him ranked at QB9, while most lists are 12-16 or so. Would take Stafford over Brady or Rodgers or Danny Dimes, while sane ADPs have him have him near to a round later than them, while some ADPs have him below people like Mayfield or Garappolo who I will not be touching. I also really like Marquise Brown as a later mid round WR that can be a solid WR2 with upside. I have been mapping out "likely available" clusters for rounds up to 5 or so to try and then making a ranking between them so I am not hemming and hawing during the draft on whether I want James Conner or David Johnson or whomever. I don't have any leagues in mind right now, so no scoring or anything. Right now my sticking spots are: Late first/early second RBs (in my order): Aaron Jones - Gets no respect for being RB #3 last year. While maybe he will not get as many TDs as last year, I don't think it is some statistical fluke either. He has had a high TD/touch ratio every year so far. I think Dillon will impact Williams more. Likely last year in GB so might as well run him into the ground. Miles Sanders - CEH like with actual experience in the pros. Boston Scott came in and looked good too, but I think he has a high ceiling, especially in PPR. Jacobs - if he catches the ball more could jump above the others CEH - ceiling is someone really good, a little more risk due to being a rookie, probably bumped above Jacobs in PPR Mixon - Always hyped, I always feel vindicated by not drafting him. I don't think he is bad, just being a Bengal makes things tough. I don't think Burrow as a rookie is what pushes him to his ADP, maybe next year. Chubb - Good on a per touch basis, just worried about Hunt taking away too many carries. 3rd-4th Round WRs: Cooper AJ Brown Juju Smith-Schuster Beckham I like Cooper the most out of these, concerned about how few targets AJ Brown had, not completely sold on Beckham or JJSS this early. I might just go RB here and grab WR a round or two later that I feel are not that different. .3rd-4th round RBs (in order): Carson - not much competition for touches David Johnson - they traded Hopkins for him so BoB will need to showcase him so he looks like less of an idiot than he already does James Conner - I dunno, can be good if not hurt? Ekeler - might go earlier than this tier, especially PPR, in standard I would have him here. Fournette - Jax will be bad, but he has been ok through other bad Jax teams Gordon - No idea how touches will break down between him and Lindsey. He was not that impressive coming back from his holdout. Gurley - Kind of like Percy Harvin being made inactive 2 minutes before a game starts due to migraines, but knees instead Depending on draft spot obviously all of these choices will not be available, but in mocks it always feels like I am choosing between Conner or David Johnson for RB2, without having a strong preference for one over the other.
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Aug 15, 2020 18:27
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kiimo posted:lol it’s that time again You're not tricking me this year!
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Aug 15, 2020 19:39
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Nah this year the camp darling so far is Jody Fortson who is catching everything and is big enough to play tight end and Ricky Seals Jones isn't doing poo poo so far. Of course that was Pringle last year and he's still there. https://twitter.com/RealMNchiefsfan/status/1294700537623920642 https://twitter.com/HerbieTeope/status/1294298778195734530 https://twitter.com/jbbrisco/status/1294336829941055500 lmao I love training camp
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Aug 15, 2020 19:52
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kiimo posted:lol it’s that time again 
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Aug 15, 2020 21:11
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