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icantfindaname posted:The LDP winning always had more to do with the opposition being deeply unappealing than with CIA dirtry tricks no matter how badly the foreign expat and journalist corps want to believe otherwise. In the immediate postwar the Italian Communists nearly got an actual majority in 1947 and probably was actually kept out by the CIA, the JSP meanwhile never cracked a third of the vote for basically non-dirty-tricks reasons. (Actually it got a cool 26% of the vote going into its brief postwar government, then collapsed and got 33% in 1960, with a long, slow decline afterward.) American support helped to consolidate the LDP but there was never more than a small chance of a Marxist sweep into power, at least unless the occupying power just forced it through without regard to public support. Dower is just wrong on this, sorry. this entire post seems like a trap ngl 
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Aug 29, 2020 01:50
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Sauzer posted:I don't think actual ultra-uyoku types would be commenting in English the people who fund them often do https://twitter.com/mnswpr/status/1256217161598668802 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uyoku_dantai quote:Philosophies and activities im sure they just really really love freedom as much as we do! 
BornAPoorBlkChild fucked around with this message at 02:31 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 02:20
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Grouchio posted:So why do they time and time again pose little threat to the LDP's powerhold then? from my view it's three main things: 1. the lower house electoral structure pre-1994 (multimember districts, single non-transferable vote) really encouraged something akin to an atomized form of machine politics: a bunch of individual politicians creating patronage networks to ensure they get just enough votes to get returned. you need a big tent party to oversee all those so one candidate isn't taking too many votes and wasting support. a party like the LDP was almost assured of appearing. 2. both pre- and post-reform, the rural vote counts a lot more for seats in the diet, and the LDP has a reputation (maybe less deserved over the last 20-30 years) for delivering pork there, strengthening the patronage networks. 3. the opposition's uncanny ability to shoot itself in the foot or be ridiculously unlucky. the JSP throwing away its two main reasons for existence by going into coalition with the LDP and giving up on opposition to the security pact with the US, the DPJ over promising on stuff like the Okinawa bases and not having the political capital or will to deliver much of anything coupled with getting hosed by 3.11, and the DP being led by an idiot that threw his lot in with that perpetual climber Koike and getting slaughtered are all good examples of this. there's plenty of your typical single-party-state corruption around, but i think that's more effect than cause. it's fun to talk about organized crime and/or the CIA being puppet masters and i'm sure the US has attempted fuckery, but it's just fodder for problematic but strangely enjoyable pulp novels and "non-fiction". japan would have amended its constitution to allow for a military if it really were just a CIA puppet state.
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Aug 29, 2020 02:49
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Mr. Fix It posted:from my view it's three main things: yeah I don't know as much directly about the elections/atomization but 2 and 3 are what I've considered the most. Especially the bad luck to be in power when 3/11 happened and to eat all the blame for that.
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Aug 29, 2020 03:01
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harperdc posted:yeah I don't know as much directly about the elections/atomization but 2 and 3 are what I've considered the most. Especially the bad luck to be in power when 3/11 happened and to eat all the blame for that. 1 and 2 i straight up cribbed from half-remembered robert pekkanen lectures with some probably totally wrong personal insights added in, if anyone is interested in this and wants to remove the forums-goon filter
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Aug 29, 2020 03:09
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Mr. Fix It posted:there's plenty of your typical single-party-state corruption around, but i think that's more effect than cause. it's fun to talk about organized crime and/or the CIA being puppet masters and i'm sure the US has attempted fuckery, but it's just fodder for problematic but strangely enjoyable pulp novels and "non-fiction". japan would have amended its constitution to allow for a military if it really were just a CIA puppet state. ... ok i think i see whats going on here itt and to be perfectly honest im a bit disgusted but not surprised
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Aug 29, 2020 05:27
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icantfindaname posted:The LDP winning always had more to do with the opposition being deeply unappealing than with CIA dirtry tricks no matter how badly the foreign expat and journalist corps want to believe otherwise. In the immediate postwar the Italian Communists nearly got an actual majority in 1947 and probably was actually kept out by the CIA, the JSP meanwhile never cracked a third of the vote for basically non-dirty-tricks reasons. (Actually it got a cool 26% of the vote going into its brief postwar government, then collapsed and got 33% in 1960, with a long, slow decline afterward.) American support helped to consolidate the LDP but there was never more than a small chance of a Marxist sweep into power, at least unless the occupying power just forced it through without regard to public support. Dower is just wrong on this, sorry. It didn't help that the Japanese Red Army made the Baader-Meinhof Gang look level headed. That and the fact that Japan had no real leftist parties or factions before WWII didn't really help either. There were figures and leaders but Showa Japan was like Bismarck's dream come true. It just created a vacuum that can never get filled due to the banal bog that is the Japanese political sphere and anyone challenging the status quo poisoning the well due to ineptitude or insanity.
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Aug 29, 2020 05:45
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Race Realists posted:... care to share your thoughts with the class?
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Aug 29, 2020 05:49
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:It didn't help that the Japanese Red Army made the Baader-Meinhof Gang look level headed. That and the fact that Japan had no real leftist parties or factions before WWII didn't really help either. There were figures and leaders but Showa Japan was like Bismarck's dream come true. It just created a vacuum that can never get filled due to the banal bog that is the Japanese political sphere and anyone challenging the status quo poisoning the well due to ineptitude or insanity.
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Aug 29, 2020 06:28
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Grouchio posted:So your prediction is that Japan will remain socially stagnant for the foreseeable future? i think things will get more dynamic as boomers (団塊世代) continue to leave the workforce. they'll still have enough political sway to get whatever they want, but the younger people actually doing work may become aware of the leverage they have and unite to exercise it. the situation will definitely be "interesting" in a "cool zone" sort of way once the boomers start dying off in large numbers and the labor crunch intensifies.
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Aug 29, 2020 07:21
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Race Realists posted:https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/vol7no3/html/v07i3a01p_0001.htm yes, CIA did fuckery in japan. that alone does not explain why the LDP remains in power. that constitutional revision to allow a military despite the US's consistent desire for Japan to assist with imperialism is a clear example of the limits of US interference in the 70s onward. i think the open, non-blops fuckery of letting war criminals back into government in the 50s had a much larger influence on the system that developed than any off-the-books actions.
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Aug 29, 2020 07:31
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Mr. Fix It posted:yes, CIA did fuckery in japan. that alone does not explain why the LDP remains in power. that constitutional revision to allow a military despite the US's consistent desire for Japan to assist with imperialism is a clear example of the limits of US interference in the 70s onward. i think the open, non-blops fuckery of letting war criminals back into government in the 50s had a much larger influence on the system that developed than any off-the-books actions. its almost like its all performative and doesn't actually matter except to only Centrist wieirdos and chuds obsessed with national autonomy! same reason Mexico is almost a One-Party-Controlled country http://www.campdenfb.com/article/japanese-zaibatsu the article in the previous post i literally just posted that you couldn't be bothered to read posted:The C.I.A. gave money to the Liberal Democratic Party and its members im going to be blunt with you: Theocratic Monarchies, Far-Right crank groups and Big Business often make for strange bedfellows when it comes to brutalizing Unions, Labor Rights and anything even remotely resembling a Welfare State BornAPoorBlkChild fucked around with this message at 09:10 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 08:13
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i for one hope the people who make my manchild cartoons get an actual living wage, medicare and time off to spend with their families 
BornAPoorBlkChild fucked around with this message at 08:44 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 08:25
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Race Realists posted:its almost like its all performative and doesn't actually matter except for only Centrist wieirdos and chuds obsessed with national autonomy! you still haven't explained how the all-powerful CIA has failed to get the Japanese constitution to amended to allow them to take a more active role in supporting US imperialism. thanks for outing yourself as a conspiracy theory believing tankie crank, tho. sorry for taking up important time you could be spending denying genocides committed by states with red flags.
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Aug 29, 2020 08:30
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You heard it here first guys. There’s no such thing as nationalism in Japan, it’s all just CIA ops. Those political assassinations and the nationalist military takeover of the 1920s? Also the CIA. Hana Kimura’s suicide? What do you think, sheeple? Free your mind.
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Aug 29, 2020 08:57
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yes
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Aug 29, 2020 09:06
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global capitalists have gotten real good, over the last 50 years or so, at controlling the narrative through buying up all the media, by discrediting and denying any leftist leaders power, or, failing that, flat out murdering them. it's not all cia, no, thought i think at this point it's safe to say it's at least cia supported unless proven otherwise any prominent anti-socialist movement is gonna get cia support one way or another. that doesn't mean it isn't a homegrown organization of shitheads, just that if it's large enough to get in the news, it's large enough that cia wants to support it, and who ever said no to free $$$$ from <shell NGO>
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Aug 29, 2020 10:19
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Is there an anti-masker/Covid denier movement in Japan? One of my weeaboo friends stated that Japanese people are too smart to do that and I just feel like he's wrong and did no research. Edit: On topic, was Yukio Mishima a CIA op?
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Aug 29, 2020 10:56
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There was a tiny anti-mask protest in Tokyo I think, a week or two ago. I just saw it on the news so I don't know what their specific ideology was though. Realistically basically everybody is wearing them. Some stores do have signs asking people to wear masks but they're not really necessary. There was a minor stir when the mayor of Osaka touted gargling medicine as a possible corona salve. (Gargling will apparently ease some symptoms of corona and regular colds but it won't do anything to cure it.) Everybody loving gargles all the time though and I don't get it.
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Aug 29, 2020 11:14
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It will be interesting to see if the opposition can get it together enough to actually challenge the LDP, they seem like a trainwreck but I think the timing and other circumstances are not as bad as they could be. The slate of candidates for the succession to Abe is less unappealing than it was in the 00s, but still not very good. The LDP probably won’t want to call an election before the term runs out in order to get their house in order, robbing them of the ability to control the time of the election. The LDP’s majorities rely on the opposition being hugely unpopular, the LDP doesn’t actually get many votes, so if turnout for the opposition increases even moderately the LDP’s majority could easily be slashed to almost nothing. The opposition probably can’t win outright without more of a coherent program but they could easily return things to the bare LDP majorities of the 70s and 90s, from there you can start building an actual governing program and hope the post-Abe LDP drops the ball, which it probably will This could be even worse for them than the post-Koizumi period. Koizumi had just smashed the DPJ in 2005 and they had almost the full term left, during an economic expansion, and they still bungled it. This time the term is almost up, they have to have an election by next fall, and people will be pissed when the pandemic crisis ends Race Realists posted:i for one hope the people who make my manchild cartoons get an actual living wage, medicare and time off to spend with their families Japan has more of a welfare state than the US, and this was enacted by 60s/70s LDP governments full of CIA favorite war criminals icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 11:32 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 11:14
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Rochallor posted:Everybody loving gargles all the time though and I don't get it. I’m made to do it every time I come home. Only takes a few seconds so whatev 
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Aug 29, 2020 12:14
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icantfindaname posted:Japan has more of a welfare state than the US, and this was enacted by 60s/70s LDP governments full of CIA favorite war criminals I’m not convinced that the LDP or at least the Abe-types wouldn’t get rid of government health insurance and completely privatize it if they could. Obviously it’s really difficult to take something like that away once you give it, fortunately. I’m also sort of worried that if enough shitheads are elected, they would do it and people would just shrug and say “Well what can you do?” I mean they tried to change article 9 and are still firmly in power.
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Aug 29, 2020 12:24
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Race Realists posted:i for one hope the people who make my manchild cartoons get an actual living wage, medicare and time off to spend with their families I mean the medicare is already there, the living wage is a problem because so many are contractors and because the publishers earn more from mega-hits than the creators necessarily do, and while Japan shames the U.S. for public holidays and time off it's nothing compared with Europe. Rochallor posted:There was a tiny anti-mask protest in Tokyo I think, a week or two ago. I just saw it on the news so I don't know what their specific ideology was though. Realistically basically everybody is wearing them. Some stores do have signs asking people to wear masks but they're not really necessary. one young-ish dude is trying to make his political bones on "Corona is a hoax / it's no worse than the cold / everything is fine" along with super high levels of nationalism, you may have seen his dumb curtain cut on the political poster for the election in June, but he was also trying to organize a "we ride the Yamanote-sen one loop without masks" spreading event a weekend or two ago. but other than that kind of absolute wack-job, there really isn't anti-mask sentiment. you still see some shitheads not wearing them / not covering their noses, but eh.
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Aug 29, 2020 12:36
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Aug 29, 2020 12:46
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I bet you 1000円 that everyone at that dude’s job loving hates him.
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Aug 29, 2020 13:20
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Seems like it's doing well for the party's image:
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Aug 29, 2020 13:30
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Sauzer posted:Seems like it's doing well for the party's image: the japanese people are seeing right through his CIA-sponsored psyop
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Aug 29, 2020 15:17
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LimburgLimbo posted:You heard it here first guys. There’s no such thing as nationalism in Japan, it’s all just CIA ops. Those political assassinations and the nationalist military takeover of the 1920s? Also the CIA. Hana Kimura’s suicide? What do you think, sheeple? Free your mind. All the people who formed the LDP just came out of nowhere and definitely weren't elites and politicians from before WWII. It's not like the LDP's current leadership is composed of the children and grandchildren of said politicians and elites from before WWII. that would be ridiculous, it's obviously the work of the dark puppet masters in the CIA who can't even kill a guy who lives 90 miles away from the US.
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Aug 29, 2020 17:07
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CIA didn't have to orchestrate a new japanese order yes. https://www.nytimes.com/1994/10/09/world/cia-spent-millions-to-support-japanese-right-in-50-s-and-60-s.html CIA just helped LDP a bunch to keep it running. e: I'm not saying commies would definitely have won in japan if it weren't for cia meddling, but pretending cia doesn't have ties to the japanese right is loving hilarious
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Aug 29, 2020 17:17
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Truga posted:e: I'm not saying commies would definitely have won in japan if it weren't for cia meddling, but pretending cia doesn't have ties to the japanese right is loving hilarious Literally nobody is doing this. A claim was made (via a tweet quote lol) that implied that Japanese ultra-nationalism was just a CIA op, which is utterly laughable. CIA absolutely was (and almost certainly to this day is, if they bother) happy to provide backing to the Japanese right-wing, but to make the *incredibly racist* assertion that any Japanese nationalism has to be spurred on by the CIA to even exist is mindblowingly stupid tankie bullshit. This is actually how the dynamics of Japanese nationalism is being portrayed, here, in this thread, between posts that are literally just multiple links to wikipedia (lol) about basic concepts of Japanese politics that every other poster here is aware of. It is real dumb, and your defending it is also real dumb, and also, I repeat, an incredibly racist attempt to rob the Japanese of their agency, to push your political narrative.
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Aug 29, 2020 17:48
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Truga posted:CIA didn't have to orchestrate a new japanese order yes. I'm not saying the CIA didn't help them, along with every other political party in the world that would benefit American interests, but I think it's absurd the level of everything being a CIA op has gotten on here. Yeah, they got money and some help but it's not like the LDP wouldn't have had the run they've had in a vacuum. The KGB and other communist governments around the world were financing and helping Japanese communist groups as well but it's not like they were able to accomplish much other than alienating the entire nation to them. If the US had wanted to, they could have had every Japanese leftist interned until 1972 in Okinawa or executed until the end of the occupation but they didn't. Ironically, people on the Japanese right thought that was happening to them at the beginning of the occupation and but they quickly learned it wasn't. If anything the greatest influence the US had on Japanese politics was having New Deal liberals draft the constitution and then just washing their hands of the whole thing, letting the surviving civilian old guard pretty much take over again because if anyone was going to do it, it would be them. You can't form a political movement out of nothing when an entrenched on3 already exists, with all the ties to money and organized crime in place, and it doesn't help when all the movements that do rise up are duds. Y'all give the CIA too much credit and it's more than that incompetent organization deserves. EDIT: Also, as Limburg pointed out, it's pretty racist to rob Japanese people of their agency. RocknRollaAyatollah fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 17:59
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LimburgLimbo posted:It is real dumb, and your defending it is also real dumb, and also, I repeat, an incredibly racist attempt to rob the Japanese of their agency, to push your political narrative. If anything, I'd say the fact that corrupt right wingers clinging to power haven't yet managed to do that constitutional revision *despite* strong support from capital in japan and overseas is precisely because japanese haven't been robbed of their agency entirely, op i guess we look at these things differently
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Aug 29, 2020 18:02
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Truga posted:CIA didn't have to orchestrate a new japanese order yes. Like I said nobody is disputing this, what I am saying is that there was no social democratic movement with anything near enough popular support to fill the void that would have existed had the LDP not formed. The people who go on about the reverse course and the CIA and the uyoku often seem to believe the other extreme, that without those things Japan could have and would have been Sweden or Trudeau’s Canada and it’s just complete nonsense. For one thing half the population were farmers as of the immediate postwar, who were not natural Socialist constituents, and the educated urban middle class was quite small. The class base didn’t exist. There was increasing domestic unrest towards the end of the war making some sort of 1918 European Bolshevik analogue plausible, but there’s no universe where even a progressive and liberal American occupation would have allowed that TLDR: The class base for a social democratic majority just did not exist in Japan in 1948, and the US was not going to allow a Bolshevik coup even if they hadn’t changed their minds about keeping Kishi and friends in prison icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 18:03
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Truga posted:If anything, I'd say the fact that corrupt right wingers clinging to power haven't yet managed to do that constitutional revision *despite* strong support from capital in japan and overseas is precisely because japanese haven't been robbed of their agency entirely, op You're just exposing your lack of understanding of the dynamics of Japanese politics and the military realities in Japan. There's always a risk of serious backlash because the Japanese populace at large has a major case of heiwa boke, and the standards to amend the constitution are quite high and would risk expending too much political capital. And why should they push it too hard? Japan has gone from having nothing more than a police force armed with US military hand-me-downs to some of the best funded and arguably most capable military forces *on the entire planet*, including foreign deployments, overseas military bases, and aircraft carriers with what's likely going to be the second largest contingent of F-35s in the world, after the US. All without amending Article 9; they're getting what they want already with minimal political risk. All you need to do is anchor the conversation with discussion of amending Article 9; if it goes through great, if it doesn't then just arm up anyway and everyone goes "well they didn't amend Article 9 so it's okay" while in the meantime you've got one of the most well armed militaries in the world. LimburgLimbo fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 18:13
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LimburgLimbo posted:Japanese populace at large has a major case of heiwa boke quoting for posterity holy poo poo dude
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Aug 29, 2020 18:26
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Truga posted:quoting for posterity holy poo poo dude I would love to have an actual response to this because lol Edit: Also to the rest of it because everything you say is completely pointless if you don't have an idea of the state of the Japanese military and the trajectory it's taken both functionally and politically. LimburgLimbo fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Aug 29, 2020 |
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Aug 29, 2020 18:32
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me, a racist: "these corrupt politicians love working with intelligence agencies who specialize in discrediting and/or removing their political enemies" you, extremely not racist: "Japanese populace at large"
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Aug 29, 2020 18:35
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Truga posted:me, a racist: "these corrupt politicians love working with intelligence agencies who specialize in discrediting and/or removing their political enemies" Accurate. Please continue and also do better.
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Aug 29, 2020 18:38
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Please also "for posterity" provide us with how often you talk to Japanese people about politics in Japan, in Japanese, thanks. Because surely you're not basing your entire understanding of the Japanese zeitgeist on the NYT articles dated 1994 that you're posting. That would be *quite the thing*.
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Aug 29, 2020 18:45
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