|
Guavanaut posted:Also worth noting is that Occam's razor is "when there are competing hypotheses for the same prediction, select the solution with the fewest assumptions" not "the simplest explanation is most likely the right one", otherwise 'God did it" and "there are two genders" become correct statements because they're nice and simple, but both make massive assumptions. Trying to explain to people that Occam's razor does NOT mean the simplest explanation is necessarily the correct one can be quite tough in my experience, people do love 'simplicity'. Segue: There's an interesting article in September Physics World about covid-19 lockdown and impacts on the climate. And it isn't as simple and straightforward as images of clear skies over some industrial locations would seem to suggest. https://physicsworld.com/a/has-the-covid-19-lockdown-changed-earths-climate/ quote:... 106: Roman Empire Emperor Trajan conquers the Dacian Fortresses of the Orăştie Mountains and surrounds the capital, Sarmizegetusa. ... Trajan annexes the Nabataean Kingdom (with its capital Petra) as the Roman province of Arabia Petraea. The epoch of the calendar of the province of Arabia begins on March 22.
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 18:57
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 20:29 |
|
|
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1308102854545231876 https://twitter.com/LDNRentersUnion/status/1308101871203225600
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:03
|
|
|
Red Oktober posted:Try tweeting @unblock_list this Yeah so just to expand a little on this, twitter lists are lists compiled by users, so you can have lists like "People I know IRL" and put your friends and family on there, then go and view a feed of only those people, or e.g. people relevant to your local area (so maybe your councillors, local news etc.). Some arseholes use them and create lists like "Cucks" or some poo poo. If you get put on one of those you can just block the list creator and it'll remove you (even if you quickly block and unblock you'll be removed). Blocklists are(were?) a separate thing, so you'd go to some website like Block Together (which doesn't currently seem to be working) and search for a blocklist with "TERF" in the title, and you might find a big, curated list of TERF accounts. Sometimes the blocklists are run by a single person or I think some might be run by groups, and often there's also a twitter account associated with it so you can "report" users to the twitter account (again not actually anything officially to do with twitter, it's a people-powered thing) who may then add people to the blocklist. You then "subscribe" to a blocklist, sign in on the website through twitter and allow it access to your account, and bam, you've blocked thousands of TERFs immediately and you'll continue to block new ones as they pop up, provided they get noticed by the person running a blocklist. So you could for example set one up and ban everybody you see with a British flag in their twitter handle, and we could all sign up to it and have those people blocked for us. Some blocklists can be a bit overzealous though. I signed up for one and suddenly lost like 30 followers because they were on a TERF list. I have no idea who they were but given that my account bio has "Trans Ally" in I suspect at least a few of them weren't actually TERFs. As it is for Frankie Boyle though, I think he's just generally a bit block-happy. He blocked me for a very mild comment I made on one of his tweets. Didn't even call him a oval office.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:04
|
|
|
Abolish the privatised aspects of the NHS! https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/covid-bereaved-call-for-inquiry-into-nhs-111-handling-of-crisis quote:Families whose relatives died from Covid-19 in the early period of the pandemic are calling for an inquiry into the NHS 111 service, arguing that many critically ill people were given inadequate advice and told to stay at home.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:05
|
|
|
Jaeluni Asjil posted:Trying to explain to people that Occam's razor does NOT mean the simplest explanation is necessarily the correct one can be quite tough in my experience, people do love 'simplicity'. There's a few horse riders around here, and sometimes they even escape off of farms, I had a surreal experience one day a few years back where a dozen escaped horses just ran across a road and through the village streets, and no more was spoken about it, so I wouldn't be making many assumptions. It's possible that it could be zebras by some sequence of events, but each event needs its own added assumption that can be falsified.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:09
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1308090040329830402?s=19 Whitty was saying this morning we can't afford to be too weak with our measures but by this afternoon it's become a pointless pub closure and crossed fingers.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:13
|
|
|
Lungboy posted:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1308090040329830402?s=19 What is the point of closing a pub at 10pm! The virus has already had its wicked way. It's like my dad pursuing my sister and I down a country lane when we were 16 and 17 because we were out with our boyfriends past 11pm and I ended up yelling at him that nothing happened after 11pm that couldn't happen at 2pm on a Sunday afternoon.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:16
|
|
|
Guavanaut posted:"When you hear hoofbeats, think of horses not zebras" is perhaps the simplest way to explain it while capturing the spirit. I think another thing to realise about Occam's Razor is that it's not necessarily about arriving at the correct answer, it's about rejecting unnecessary hypotheses. *Generally* if you hear hoofbeats you're better off to assume it's horses (unless you live in Africa where zebra live or you live next door to the zebra enclosure at the zoo, of course) *until* you have good reason to believe that it's zebras and not horses. You'll be guided to the right answer in shorter time, most of the time, *but not every time*, if you start with the hypothesis which requires the least supposition, and only discard that hypothesis when you're faced with contradictory information. E: Ah poo poo you already said this and I came in at the end of the discussion without having read the prior posts. My bad.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:17
|
|
|
Lungboy posted:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1308090040329830402?s=19 Correct me if I'm wrong, but won't shorter opening hours make pubs... more crowded?
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:18
|
|
|
Lungboy posted:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1308090040329830402?s=19 absolutely loving useless, exactly the same as doing nothing at all
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:18
|
|
|
Jaeluni Asjil posted:What is the point of closing a pub at 10pm! The virus has already had its wicked way. It's like my dad pursuing my sister and I down a country lane when we were 16 and 17 because we were out with our boyfriends past 11pm and I ended up yelling at him that nothing happened after 11pm that couldn't happen at 2pm on a Sunday afternoon. They give the illusion of doing something without actually doing something
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:20
|
|
|
Plus they can blame us when it inevitably fails.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:21
|
|
|
I was at the pub last week (yes I know I'm part of the problem), by 10pm the place was basically empty anyway. The problem was at 5pm when we got there and every table was full.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:22
|
|
|
EvilHawk posted:I was at the pub last week (yes I know I'm part of the problem), by 10pm the place was basically empty anyway. The problem was at 5pm when we got there and every table was full. I sat outside a pub with a cup of coffee for an hour today. I was on my way to Iceland to stock up on frozen veg when a former comrade called me across the road for a debrief on local party happenings. #partoftheproblem.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:24
|
|
|
Lungboy posted:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1308090040329830402?s=19 also "circuit break" is a dreadful phrase, it suggests an immediate stop in the event of lockdown, should be more like "push kind of hardish on the brakes and hope we don't skid through the guard rail"
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:25
|
|
|
Jaeluni Asjil posted:I sat outside a pub with a cup of coffee for an hour today. I was on my way to Iceland to stock up on frozen veg when a former comrade called me across the road for a debrief on local party happenings. #partoftheproblem. We were celebrating our engagement and sat outside for as long as possible before I started to freeze. Still, could have stayed home.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:26
|
|
|
I have to say this whole "stay at home don't do anything as praxis" thing is very validating for me.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:27
|
|
|
I am enjoying the constant "oh how are you coping?" questions from people at work. Like... we're fine? I go shopping when I need food and occasionally go to the park/pub to see friends and family. Apart from needing to wear a mask my life literally has not changed. If everyone was a shut in nerd we would have beaten the virus in a week imo
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:33
|
|
|
WhatEvil posted:I think another thing to realise about Occam's Razor is that it's not necessarily about arriving at the correct answer, it's about rejecting unnecessary hypotheses. *Generally* if you hear hoofbeats you're better off to assume it's horses (unless you live in Africa where zebra live or you live next door to the zebra enclosure at the zoo, of course) *until* you have good reason to believe that it's zebras and not horses. You'll be guided to the right answer in shorter time, most of the time, *but not every time*, if you start with the hypothesis which requires the least supposition, and only discard that hypothesis when you're faced with contradictory information. I like the framing of it as "Don't needlessly multiply entities" which I *think* comes from the first wave of New Atheism, and let's just ignore the rest of the fruit of that particular tree. To take a regrettably real recent example from my life- you walk into a room and there's a puddle and a guilty-looking dog, you assume the two are related. You don't need to consider the possibility of a previously-unmapped natural spring occuring in your kitchen or the work of a small but particularly angry thunder god offended by your tiling, because these are all extra entities not required to explain the observable facts. Then when you notice the drip from the ceiling that can't be explained by the dog (not with her arthritis) so you check upstairs to find the leaking radiator, and you can safely assume that this is the problem and not that pissing pixies living under the floorboards are drinking the radiator water then pissing through the ceiling. It's also a good general conspiracy filter. You can say that the moon landings are faked because that's a "simpler" explanation than Project Apollo actually working, but Project Apollo definitely existed and is consistent with all known facts about the moon landings while the conspiracy requires extra entities - the film crews, the sound stage, the facility to manufacture moon rocks, the place where they dumped all the parts built in all the factories around the country - which both fail the general rule by multiplying the amount of entities for that version of reality to work and also fail the special rule of conspiracies that the chance of someone talking goes up exponentially the more people that are involved in the conspiracy.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:50
|
|
|
radmonger posted:They are different and complementary. Any time the explanation involving malice is _simpler_ than the one involving incompetence, then malice becomes more the way to bet. This and GDT’s explanations helped, thanks!
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 19:57
|
|
|
Lungboy posted:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1308090040329830402?s=19 this entire loving country is ruled by yer da who still thinks covid is basically the flu, and that flu is just a slightly bad cold, and who doesn't like ever being told to do anything he didn't already want to do
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:02
|
|
|
Shant Grapps
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:18
|
|
|
goddamnedtwisto posted:
My mother does not have a dog - guilty-looking or otherwise - so where was the puddle on her living room floor from? It turned out it was from a pipe, under the floor, pierced by nails from clumsy workmen some 30 years ago when laying a new floor (the parentals had an extension put in) and which gave a slow leak over 30 years which didn't appear above the floor boards until two years ago.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:23
|
|
|
The Covid Nandos Scale is now at 4/5. Please order an extra glass of milk with your drinks when you go to the pub in case you eat any of the spicy Covid. Do not stop going to the pub. Go to the pub. Now.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:23
|
|
|
Genuinely cannot comprehend the level of incompetence this government is showing. Like usually sure the Tories are evil but you feel like there's some evil end goal they're working to that gets them loads of money but what the gently caress are they doing. Stay at home, go out, stay 6 feet apart, go to school, go the pub, wear a mask (unless you don't feel like it) don't go the pub (but be home before 10pm when the virus goes to bed). The usual tory plan is to funnel money upwards to their mates but surely some of their non-Russian backers will be upset if they collapse the entire economy?
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:35
|
|
|
EvilHawk posted:If everyone was a shut in nerd we would have beaten the virus in a week imo That, and we've all regretted a character with CON as a dump stat.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:38
|
|
|
Could have sworn the numbering system went in the bin when people started asking annoying questions like "why are you unshielding the vulnerable which is at level 1 if we're still on level 3?"
Lungboy fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Sep 21, 2020 |
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:39
|
|
|
Lungboy posted:Could have sworn the numbering system went in the bin when people started asking annoying questions like "why are you unshielding the vulnerable which is at level 1 of we're still on level 3?" the numbering system went in the bin at the same presentation at which the numbering system was unveiled, when the government said we were at "3.5" which is not a point of the 5 point scale.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:42
|
|
|
remembering the formula, that we see that with R = 1.4, and 2.6 infections, which our data collectors tell us we've just reached, the alert level must be 4. simple, really CGI Stardust fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Sep 21, 2020 |
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:45
|
|
|
goddamnedtwisto posted:I like the framing of it as "Don't needlessly multiply entities" which I *think* comes from the first wave of New Atheism, and let's just ignore the rest of the fruit of that particular tree. It is not actually certain who first wrote that entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily, but it was definitely not the New Atheists.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:46
|
|
|
Butternubs posted:The usual tory plan is to funnel money upwards to their mates but surely some of their non-Russian backers will be upset if they collapse the entire economy? I genuinely think that half of the Tory party is sociopathic enough to gently caress Britain's economy and then abandon country. The other half are loving idiots who believe in English exceptionalism so much they genuinely can't see what's coming.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:47
|
|
|
goddamnedtwisto posted:I like the framing of it as "Don't needlessly multiply entities" Yeah I hadn't thought of it like that before but it's a good one, thanks. Angepain posted:this entire loving country is ruled by yer da who still thinks covid is basically the flu, and that flu is just a slightly bad cold, and who doesn't like ever being told to do anything he didn't already want to do Yeah. I've mentioned before, but I've had the actual proper flu, and it was a loving miserable experience. Never felt so weak and exhausted before or since. Felt like I'd been literally hit by a bus, all of my joints, muscles and bones ached strongly for a couple of days, plus real exhaustion for about a week (I think it was a week, can't remember for sure because it was a while ago). Can absolutely see how even your garden variety flu kills people. I've also grown up with my Mum saying to me near enough every time I caught a cold that was a little bit worse than average, "Oh maybe it's flu!", and so didn't appreciate what actual flu was until I was in my early 20s. Basically flu sucks, you definitely don't want it, even if you're healthy, and you'll know without question if you've had a proper bout of it.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:51
|
|
|
I think some posters ITT will be affected: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/21/britons-eu-uk-bank-accounts-closed-lloyds-barclays-brexit quote:Thousands of Britons living in the EU will have their UK bank accounts closed by the end of the year because of the UK’s failure to agree a post-Brexit trade deal.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:52
|
|
|
The Tory press are all wondering whether the government really is clueless and flailing over their Covid response. Sun, Mail and Telegraph all strongly negative; Times less so but clearly unconvinced. I guess these latest measures will be reversed within 48 hours, then. Edit: 14,000 comments on the Mail report on this, Jesus. Pistol_Pete fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Sep 21, 2020 |
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 20:58
|
|
|
Pistol_Pete posted:Edit: 14,000 comments on the Mail report on this, Jesus. imagining one daily mail comment is bad enough. 14,000 of them must be enough to qualify as a deadly weapon
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 21:11
|
|
|
I was surprised at the anger and disapproval. These are the papers and readers who, a few months ago, were all patriotically ordering their groceries online, clapping for the NHS and indulging in a bit of comfy ersatz Blitz Spirit. Now, they're all seriously pissed and saying that the government doesn't know what the gently caress it's doing and is just making it up as it goes along. Nearly everyone thinks that new lockdown measures are unnecessary. It seems like a real sea-change in the attitudes of the public that Johnson cares about (Tory voters), which is why I think these measures will be walked back in the coming days.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 21:19
|
|
|
Pistol_Pete posted:I was surprised at the anger and disapproval. These are the papers and readers who, a few months ago, were all patriotically ordering their groceries online, clapping for the NHS and indulging in a bit of comfy ersatz Blitz Spirit. Now, they're all seriously pissed and saying that the government doesn't know what the gently caress it's doing and is just making it up as it goes along. Nearly everyone thinks that new lockdown measures are unnecessary. One of my neighbours (over 80, had a post-mastectomy appointment to begin radiotherapy postponed from July to next February etc) said to me 2 days ago "Well the government are doing their best". "I might have to disagree with you on that" I said! Another one who only gets her news from BBC & Sky. She has no internet.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 21:24
|
|
|
Pistol_Pete posted:I was surprised at the anger and disapproval. These are the papers and readers who, a few months ago, were all patriotically ordering their groceries online, clapping for the NHS and indulging in a bit of comfy ersatz Blitz Spirit. Now, they're all seriously pissed and saying that the government doesn't know what the gently caress it's doing and is just making it up as it goes along. Nearly everyone thinks that new lockdown measures are unnecessary. What measures? From the press briefings it sounds like it will be pubs closing early and not much else.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 21:28
|
|
|
Nicola Sturgeon has made some noises about her announcement in the next day or two being potentially different from the rest of the uk if boris isn't on board with the measures she wants, so hopefully she follows through on that, to the extent it's possible to do. I mean the SNP have a fair deal of faults but they're not at the level of utter disdain for human lives as the tories, at least.
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 21:32
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 20:29 |
|
|
Lungboy posted:What measures? From the press briefings it sounds like it will be pubs closing early and not much else. Perhaps everyone commenting spends a lot of time in Wetherspoons, I dunno v  v
|
|
#
?
Sep 21, 2020 21:38
|
|