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It's not just any one thing in the UK so theres isnt something we can point to and say "this is it." Firstly your data source for hospitalisations ends 7 September, a full two weeks ago, it also misses Wales, Scotland and NI for a chunk of recent data because of reporting issues. If you look at more recent data there is a sharp uptick in hospitalised cases since start of september (400 at start, 1500 now) and it's important to remember it often takes weeks for this data to filter through to stats pages like the gov.uk one. Secondly despite pubs etc opening in july the summer allowed outside dining and people's initial cautiousness did a lot to mitigate spread, however the 'eat out to help out' really seems to have knocked back peoples level of worry and now as the weather goes to poo poo we will see people inside a lot more with the associated spread. There is also no indication that we have exhausted the vulnerable population, just look at the numbers of deaths and cases compared to the 70+ population, all of whom are vulnerable. Care homes etc seem to be doing better at shielding and isolating this time around which also helps enormously (in march/april the UK gov was pushing to discharge covid positive patients into care homes to free up hospital beds which had predictable results). Basically there is no reason to believe the disease will be less deadly a second time around despite the delay in deaths which can largely be explained by proportionately more young people catching it, better treatments, data lag, more tests/less actual cases and its pretty ghoulish to just throw your hands up and say that because some buisnesses closed we just have to accept a shitload of dead and crippled people because lockdown is too hard on the mighty dollars. Saros fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Sep 22, 2020 |
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Sep 22, 2020 10:09
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That's right. There are a lot of confounding factors that have kept the virus from being too bad in the UK this summer, but it's only going to get worse and people will get more complacent if we let them think everything's fine. I found it interesting during the big briefing yesterday, even with exponential increases to 50,000 cases a day, they would only expect 200 deaths per day to come of it, when we were at 1000 a day at its worst. Sadly I don't think a 10pm closing time for pubs sends the right message.
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Sep 22, 2020 10:39
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Konstantin posted:If I was sitting about 6 feet away from a person who was presymptomatic and later diagnosed with covid for several full 8 hour shifts, and we were both wearing masks while at work, should I be concerned? Work isn't confirming or denying they tested positive, only that someone in the office did. Was the other person wearing their mask 100% of the time for their entire shift or did they ever lower it to speak or take sips of water? Were you wearing goggles for 100% of the time you were around this person? Did you wash your hands thoroughly every single time before you touched any part of your face or adjusted your mask while you were around this person? If you answered 'no' to any of those questions then you should be concerned. If you answered 'yes' to all of those questions then you should still be concerned because the recommendation is "wear a mask AND maintain 6 feet distance AND only for short times" and even then that's not a 100% guarantee, it's just the best possible practices that still allow people to work and shop and attend schools etc.. The safety protocols were never intended to make people 100% safe, they're a balance between slowing down the spread of the virus as much as possible while still allowing people to go about their lives to some extent. You should definitely get tested if you think you've been in contact with a COVID positive person, even if you were really careful about wearing your mask at all times.
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Sep 22, 2020 11:13
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Uggghhh pretty sure I caught it. Still waiting for the test results, but the symptoms I had check almost all the boxes (fortunately left the lungs alone, no breathing troubles), and the wife lost her sense of smell out of nowhere so I'll be very surprised if it's anything but the rona. This sucks. I'm definitely already recovering, but I still haven't regained my voice (which I need to work, dammit) and I just want to sleep all the time. gently caress, I hope I'm not one of the people who gets chronic fatigue from this  Good thing I wasn't in contact with anyone before symptoms started. Guildencrantz fucked around with this message at 11:41 on Sep 22, 2020 |
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Sep 22, 2020 11:37
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Hope it works out well for you.Guildencrantz posted:Good thing I wasn't in contact with anyone before symptoms started.
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Sep 22, 2020 11:41
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Mithaldu posted:Hope it works out well for you. COVID-positive people can be actively spreading the virus for several days before they start showing symptoms
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Sep 22, 2020 12:00
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Mithaldu posted:Hope it works out well for you. Sorry, maybe I'm unclear because of brain fog, I mean I luckily didn't meet with people during that "presymptomatic but infectious" period when I had no clue I might have it but could have given it to someone.
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Sep 22, 2020 12:00
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Every time I go into the doctor’s office I clutch my rear end in a top hat tight and I’m immunocompromised and in the doctor’s office all the time and in a state that has a meteoric rise in cases and fuuuuck. Going into the breach again today.
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Sep 22, 2020 12:12
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Ah yep, now i get it. That's good, yeah. 
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Sep 22, 2020 12:12
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extra row of teeth posted:Every time I go into the doctor’s office I clutch my rear end in a top hat tight Viral transmission occurs via the mucous membranes so you could technically catch coronavirus via your anus so clenching it shut probably helps somewhat.  E: and you do NOT want to get covids up in your butt, let me tell you quote:Histological examination revealed severe endothelialitis and multiple microthrombi in particular in the venous vascular bed (arrows in Fig. 1a). Electron microscopy showed multiple SARS-CoV-2 viral particles in the large bowel endothelium (Fig. 1b)—which is well-known for its higher than average expression of the entry receptor ACE-2. Of note, non-obstructive bowel necrosis has been increasingly recognized as an emerging complication of severe COVID-19. Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 12:24 on Sep 22, 2020 |
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Sep 22, 2020 12:19
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quote:non-obstructive bowel necrosis has been increasingly recognized as an emerging complication of severe COVID-19 
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Sep 22, 2020 12:32
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Just LMAO https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1308209927274536961 E: also LOL at the number of people directly behind Trump who aren't wearing their masks correctly Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 14:13 on Sep 22, 2020 |
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Sep 22, 2020 14:02
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Konstantin posted:If I was sitting about 6 feet away from a person who was presymptomatic and later diagnosed with covid for several full 8 hour shifts, and we were both wearing masks while at work, should I be concerned? Work isn't confirming or denying they tested positive, only that someone in the office did. In theory you would get calls from contact tracers if the person who had it was the one you were standing near all day, but I’d probably get tested a couple times either way. edit: and self isolate as much as possible pending the result of the tests - if it were me who works from home, Id literally not leave my apartment, but not everyone is able to do that. Puppy Galaxy fucked around with this message at 14:08 on Sep 22, 2020 |
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Sep 22, 2020 14:05
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Viral transmission occurs via the mucous membranes so you could technically catch coronavirus via your anus so clenching it shut probably helps somewhat. Well at least it's good to know that The President is wearing a mask to cover his butthole.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:05
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Isn't it extremely likely that he'll die if gets it considering his terrible health? He must be really confident in his quarantine policies if he is letting the world burn down next to his own house.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:05
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Puppy Galaxy posted:In theory you would get calls from contact tracers if the person who had it was the one you were standing near all day, but I’d probably get tested a couple times either way. I've seen stories from people going "I reported that I was covid positive a month ago and still haven't been contacted by the contact tracers". The system is just not working in some places.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:10
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xtal posted:Isn't it extremely likely that he'll die if gets it considering his terrible health? He must be really confident in his quarantine policies if he is letting the world burn down next to his own house. We all hoped Boris would die but the mutual defence pact with Satan really paid off. Also we have gotten better at treating Covid, and Trump will surely get the best treatment if he gets sick. He might be just a bit too fat to sleep on his stomach though so we got that going for us.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:12
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xtal posted:Isn't it extremely likely that he'll die if gets it considering his terrible health? He must be really confident in his quarantine policies if he is letting the world burn down next to his own house. Nah according to that one doctor Trump's the healthiest man who ever lived in history, is exactly one pound under the limit for obesity, and might live to be 200 years old. His only tiny vice is the miniscule amount of fast food he eats, that's it.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:19
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extra row of teeth posted:Every time I go into the doctor’s office I clutch my rear end in a top hat tight Do you wear a gold ring?
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Sep 22, 2020 14:28
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xtal posted:Isn't it extremely likely that he'll die if gets it considering his terrible health? He must be really confident in his quarantine policies if he is letting the world burn down next to his own house. Isn't everyone swabbed for COVID even before they are granted an audience with him?
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Sep 22, 2020 14:36
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xtal posted:Isn't it extremely likely that he'll die if gets it considering his terrible health? He must be really confident in his quarantine policies if he is letting the world burn down next to his own house. He's on some serious industrial strength prophylactics and everyone around him is constantly tested. I am surprised he hasn't gotten it yet, but at this point he might escape its grasp until the vaccine in a few months.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:38
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coronavirus posted:the vaccine in a few months. Lol
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Sep 22, 2020 14:40
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That reminds me: why do people think there will be a vaccine? You can't just sit down and make a vaccine for anything you want, even if you have infinite time and money. It seems like a vaccine has been chosen as the definitive end of quarantine but I don't think there will ever be an effective vaccine, at least based on the information we have right now. At the very least, it's 5+ years away.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:42
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xtal posted:That reminds me: why do people think there will be a vaccine? You can't just sit down and make a vaccine for anything you want, even if you have infinite time and money. Sure you can. I paid a guy $50 for an African lion vaccine five years ago and it's been 100% effective. I didn't even need an injection, he gave it to me in suppository form.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:47
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xtal posted:That reminds me: why do people think there will be a vaccine? You can't just sit down and make a vaccine for anything you want, even if you have infinite time and money. In the US at least, there's a vocal minority of Americans who already think covid is over (because they're bored) and have no problem spreading it to the rest of us. This group include the President of the United States. If we get a successful vaccine, at least I know I won't die because somebody at the gas station parked next to me is coughing up a lung for freedom.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:49
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xtal posted:That reminds me: why do people think there will be a vaccine? You can't just sit down and make a vaccine for anything you want, even if you have infinite time and money. Where are you getting 5+ years away from? Do you take Dr.Fauci at his word or think he is compromised? He believes a vaccine is coming this year. Of course you are going to hear nothing but optimism from the researchers, manufactures and the gov, but it seems fairly likely we will have widescale distribution in 2021. Likely treatment for VIPs in late 2020. It might only last months or cause immunity in a non-major percentage of cases, but from all the preliminary trials it appears a vaccine is possible
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Sep 22, 2020 14:50
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xtal posted:At the very least, it's 5+ years away. nah coronavirus posted:Likely treatment for VIPs in late 2020. also nah i'd make an educated guess at having a vaccine, without whatever (known) spine melting side effects or the like, by mid-late 2021 with production ramping up late 2021
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Sep 22, 2020 14:54
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For one, that isn't enough time to study the effects of the vaccines, so even if it is available to the public, people won't take it. For two, it hasn't been proven if people can be re-infected; if you can be infected despite having antibodies, because the virus mutated or for another reason, that is going to impact the efficacy of the vaccine as well. Lastly, coronaviruses aside from SARS-CoV-2 are well known. We have been looking at coronavirus vaccines forever because of SARS and the common cold, and so far it isn't been fruitful.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:57
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xtal posted:For one, that isn't enough time to study the effects of the vaccines, so even if it is available to the public, people won't take it. I think you need to do some learning on vaccines. There are different kinds of antibodies and T cell memory has been shown to exist in COVID vaccines so far. There's no vaccine for the common cold because there's no money in it and the SARS vaccine was making great progress until the virus burned itself out and the vaccine became unnecessary. A lot of the work done on the SARS vaccine translates directly to the development of the COVID vaccine.
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Sep 22, 2020 15:06
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There's a lot of money in studying the cold, it causes tens of billions of dollars of economic damage. But I concede that coronaviruses aren't the only causes of colds, either. To the point about SARS. I don't doubt you, but that suggests that people stopped working on a vaccine because of a quiet period between recurrences, when that would be the best time to work on one. If they're demonstrable idiots, is now a good time to start listening?
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Sep 22, 2020 15:20
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DickParasite posted:We all hoped Boris would die but the mutual defence pact with Satan really paid off. Did we ever get any proof that he actually had it and wasn’t just hiding?
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Sep 22, 2020 15:24
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xtal posted:To the point about SARS. I don't doubt you, but that suggests that people stopped working on a vaccine because of a quiet period between recurrences, when that would be the best time to work on one. If they're demonstrable idiots, is now a good time to start listening?
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Sep 22, 2020 15:25
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xtal posted:There's a lot of money in studying the cold, it causes tens of billions of dollars of economic damage. But I concede that coronaviruses aren't the only causes of colds, either. Do you think Dr. Fauci is dumb or compromised when he says the vaccine is coming this year?
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Sep 22, 2020 15:30
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EL BROMANCE posted:Did we ever get any proof that he actually had it and wasn’t just hiding? He's not smart or organised enough to pull that off. His main advisor/pet goblin couldn't even manage a sneaky day trip. If Trump or similar got it they would be able to use convalescent plasma treatment, using antibodies from someone who's recovered to beat the virus. Unfortunately this treatment being out there means that no-one with real power is seriously threatened by this, which might partly explain how poo poo the response has been.
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Sep 22, 2020 15:34
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coronavirus posted:Do you think Dr. Fauci is dumb or compromised when he says the vaccine is coming this year? He suggested not to wear masks initially. Secondly, having a vaccine be developed doesn't mean tested, available and considered safe. If they fast track the vaccine without considering long term studies, then that could make things much worse later; and people who are skeptical because of that will prevent herd immunity. That said, I will make the more conservative bet: there is not going to be a vaccine this year, for even a single person.
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Sep 22, 2020 15:36
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xtal posted:There's a lot of money in studying the cold, it causes tens of billions of dollars of economic damage. But I concede that coronaviruses aren't the only causes of colds, either. SARS is gone and likely isnt coming back. All the money dried up and the vaccines were largely abandoned because  Your vaccine timeframes are what you could expect in a normal situation, fast even for that but the key part is most of these vaccines currently under development are awash with literally unprecedented (for vaccine dev) government money to prepare manufacturing and distribution before the safety and efficacy of the vaccine is proven so that once it's okayed they can immediately start distribution of stocks already on hand. Finally vaccine mediated immunity is different from that caused by an infection, just because one might only last 6 months has no real bearing on the other. This is one reason vaccines are often given with later booster doses which can get around this flagging immunity. Vaccines already exist and indeed the various Russian and Chinese ones are already undergoing limited distribution, there are off the top of my head at least three major vaccines by western companies which will be ready for regulatory submission well before the end of the year and you can bet the agencies won't drag their feet unless they are properly poo poo. Saros fucked around with this message at 15:57 on Sep 22, 2020 |
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Sep 22, 2020 15:51
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xtal posted:That said, I will make the more conservative bet: there is not going to be a vaccine this year, for even a single person.
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Sep 22, 2020 16:04
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xtal posted:
They're already testing about a dozen vaccines worldwide in phase 3. There's a pretty good chance that one of these is a winning candidate, ergo thousands of people have probably received a successful and safe vaccine already they just can't prove it yet. Also, moving your goalposts from 5 years to the next 3.5 months is lame behavior, even for a troll.
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Sep 22, 2020 16:10
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Another Bill posted:They're already testing about a dozen vaccines worldwide in phase 3. There's a pretty good chance that one of these is a winning candidate, ergo thousands of people have probably received a successful and safe vaccine already they just can't prove it yet. This year is what Fauci said, I'm doubting even that. Considering the vaccine that gave people transverse myelitis, I hope you other early adopters aren't going to grow any extra arms.
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Sep 22, 2020 16:31
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yeah i really don't wanna take the vaccine that rewrites my RNA thanks
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Sep 22, 2020 16:46
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