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bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
dna is the main store, rna is a working copy. rna changes way harder and easier than dna and also transcription frequency is modulated way harder

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That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


Another Bill posted:

I think you need to do some learning on vaccines. There are different kinds of antibodies and T cell memory has been shown to exist in COVID vaccines so far. There's no vaccine for the common cold because there's no money in it and the SARS vaccine was making great progress until the virus burned itself out and the vaccine became unnecessary. A lot of the work done on the SARS vaccine translates directly to the development of the COVID vaccine.

This more or less.

pop punk
Jun 26, 2018

:420::420::420:
Is it weird that I am completely unconcerned with reinfection? I know most things have a small group that is very unlucky that can get it multiple times, but it seems like at this point we would have an overwhelming amount of reinfected people if that was the case. Even a few hundred confirmed reinfections wouldn't seems like a reason to be concerned.

Anyways, I am still hiding out in the woods and not seeing anyone until there is a vaccine. But I am also pretty optimistic about my life resuming someday and just feel bad for people who can't avoid everything.

coronavirus
Jan 27, 2020

by Cyrano4747

xtal posted:

He suggested not to wear masks initially. Secondly, having a vaccine be developed doesn't mean tested, available and considered safe. If they fast track the vaccine without considering long term studies, then that could make things much worse later; and people who are skeptical because of that will prevent herd immunity.

That said, I will make the more conservative bet: there is not going to be a vaccine this year, for even a single person.

Since you can't seem to be able to answer a pretty easy question, I will assume you think Dr. Fauci is neither and you just don't like his optimism.

Also there already has been vaccines administered in the USA. I'd bet big money VIPs and then the nursing homes start to get it this calendar year.

Noblesse Obliged
Apr 7, 2012

Haven’t we already had a couple vaccine trials halted because it’s melting people’s brains or something?

(Not literally but it’s causing problems)

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

Noblesse Obliged posted:

Haven’t we already had a couple vaccine trials halted because it’s melting people’s brains or something?

(Not literally but it’s causing problems)

1 trial had 2 incidents out of the 8000 people who received it, and they both recovered. But this is why it's important to actually do your phase 3 trials

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Scarodactyl posted:

(pretty sure it was not the placebo)

That's just what the placebo wants you to think :colbert:

Another Bill
Sep 27, 2018

Born on the bayou
died in a cave
bbq and posting
is all I crave

The Glumslinger posted:

1 trial had 2 incidents out of the 8000 people who received it, and they both recovered. But this is why it's important to actually do your phase 3 trials

If we're talking about AstraZeneca they've announced they are resuming or have resumed trials.

Inept
Jul 8, 2003

xtal posted:

At the very least, it's 5+ years away.

been a while since we had a superdoomer in here

Doggles
Apr 22, 2007

https://twitter.com/MaaloufMD/status/1308394603415048193

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
:black101:

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
the gently caress's up with sweden?

Mithaldu fucked around with this message at 20:48 on Sep 22, 2020

NihilismNow
Aug 31, 2003
Dutch figures are probably low because there is a shortage of testing capacity and they've stopped testing symptomatic people below 13 years old because they can't get or spread covid. They should just go to school if they have cold symptoms.

sunken fleet
Apr 25, 2010

dreams of an unchanging future,
a today like yesterday,
a tomorrow like today.
Fallen Rib

Inept posted:

been a while since we had a superdoomer in here

yeah it's so mysterious why people don't have a whole lot of trust in the medical establishment

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde
Does anyone know if the standard flu vaccine has to go through phase 1/2/3 clinical trials every year? It's not clear from Googling if this is the case.

Genderfluent
Jul 15, 2015

DickParasite posted:

Does anyone know if the standard flu vaccine has to go through phase 1/2/3 clinical trials every year? It's not clear from Googling if this is the case.

No. This is because the flu vaccine is made the same way each year, although the specific strains change. But there is no rigorous safety/efficacy testing on an annual basis like the potential COVID vaccines are going through

edit: should say that this is obviously a loophole in the FDA policies, which is needed to ensure that influenza vaccines come out in a timely fashion

Genderfluent fucked around with this message at 00:42 on Sep 23, 2020

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Genderfluent posted:


edit: should say that this is obviously a loophole in the FDA policies, which is needed to ensure that influenza vaccines come out in a timely fashion

For sure. I'm just looking for an easy retort to the claims the vaccine is "unproven" or the above poster's distrust of the medical establishment. Like, what's the most common vaccine that people have gotten in recent memory that went through the full approvals process? HPV?

Noblesse Obliged
Apr 7, 2012

DickParasite posted:

For sure. I'm just looking for an easy retort to the claims the vaccine is "unproven" or the above poster's distrust of the medical establishment. Like, what's the most common vaccine that people have gotten in recent memory that went through the full approvals process? HPV?

I don’t think saying “relax! We’ve been wingin it all along and you’re fine aren’t ya?” Is going to have the desired effect you’re looking for.

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Noblesse Obliged posted:

I don’t think saying “relax! We’ve been wingin it all along and you’re fine aren’t ya?” Is going to have the desired effect you’re looking for.

I don't know how ironic you're being but I'm going for more of a "we've got an established method for testing and quantifying the risks associated with a new vaccine and it has a proven track record".

I. M. Gei
Jun 26, 2005

CHIEFS

BITCH



So how long do y’all think it’ll be before that 30%-death-rate MERS-CoV poo poo evolves to be super-contageous?


I’m thinking one year or less.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
we will have a roni strain every year or other year and itll just be a Thing that a few hundo thousand or million or tens of millions or hundreds of millions of peeps are gonna die for stupid reasons every decade or two

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

I. M. Gei posted:

So how long do y’all think it’ll be before that 30%-death-rate MERS-CoV poo poo evolves to be super-contageous?


I’m thinking one year or less.

Viruses tend to evolve to be less lethal. If you're looking for a death cult to join I'd recommend biosphere collapse.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
"tend to" is a big one

viruses slurp from an rng and experience selection pressure. selection pressure says not to kill hosts. rng says "whatever lol"

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde
toe-MAY-toe tuh-MAH-toe

Cacafuego
Jul 22, 2007

DickParasite posted:

For sure. I'm just looking for an easy retort to the claims the vaccine is "unproven" or the above poster's distrust of the medical establishment. Like, what's the most common vaccine that people have gotten in recent memory that went through the full approvals process? HPV?

Meningitis B is the most recent one I’m seeing ads for on TV.

Spazzle
Jul 5, 2003

DickParasite posted:

Viruses tend to evolve to be less lethal. If you're looking for a death cult to join I'd recommend biosphere collapse.

You might as well say that populations are selected to be the descendants of those that survive disease. The European diseases that massacred the Americas weren't less lethal, the populations were just not selected.

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Spazzle posted:

You might as well say that populations are selected to be the descendants of those that survive disease. The European diseases that massacred the Americas weren't less lethal, the populations were just not selected.

That's not at all the same thing. Viruses mutate, that's evolution:

bob dobbs is dead posted:

viruses slurp from an rng and experience selection pressure. selection pressure says not to kill hosts. rng says "whatever lol"

Let's say Covid-19 evolves into two separate additional strains, Strain A and Strain B.

Strain A: The virus mutates and hosts survive for longer than OG-Covid-19, with less obvious symptoms - leads to more of Strain A in the wild eventually outnumbering OG-Covid-19.

Strain B: The virus mutates and hosts die quicker than OG-Covid-19, with more obvious symptoms than OG-Covid-19 or Strain A. Hosts infected by Strain B are more likely to be identified and isolated, and die quicker before infecting as many others.

All other things being equal Strain A supplants OG-Covid-19 in the population.

This is basically what happened with Spanish Flu. There are already multiple mutations of Covid-19 in the population.

DickParasite fucked around with this message at 02:47 on Sep 23, 2020

FoolyCharged
Oct 11, 2012

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!
Somebody call for an ant?

bob dobbs is dead posted:

"tend to" is a big one

viruses slurp from an rng and experience selection pressure. selection pressure says not to kill hosts. rng says "whatever lol"

Covid doesn't kill in a way that would benefit from killing the host. It would have to radically mutate into something like Ebola liquefying its victims organs and spewing them out through the skin for killing the host to not almost immediately kill the mutation with no further children.

Shit Fuckasaurus
Oct 14, 2005

i think right angles might be an abomination against nature you guys
Lipstick Apathy

Spazzle posted:

You might as well say that populations are selected to be the descendants of those that survive disease. The European diseases that massacred the Americas weren't less lethal, the populations were just not selected.

Viruses do tend to evolve to kill their hosts less, that much is true.

The problem here is the non-human populations who are also experiencing covid. The same virus can cause dramatically different symptoms in different species, and can also swap code with other compatible viruses an infected host comes in contact with. If, say, a pig farm in Montana gets infected and it becomes endemic to the pigs in that farm that strain would slowly evolve to kill fewer pigs. Then, later, those pigs could pass the less-pig-killing virus back to humans, or that virus could swap material with another porcine-human crossover virus that then infected a human, and in either of those cases it could turn out that less-pig-killing means WAY-more-people-killing and all of a sudden we have Covid-19 again (only this time it's Covid-20 or Covid-21 out whatever, depending on the year it debuts) but centered in Montana.

This is all but a certainty. It's literally how Covid-19 came to be. It's impossible to say how frequently, but the current pandemic has given a lot of non-human host populations a brand new bag of tools, and due to the global spread they are likely new tools, and it's going to be both interesting and probably terrifying to see what happens in terms of epidemiology in the next 25 years.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

DickParasite posted:



Hosts surviving for longer, with less obvious symptoms, leads to more viruses.

pickin the mutations is the fitness part, the actual mutations are just rng. radiation flippin dna bits

flip one way, flip the other way, see how the die lands

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde
I edited my earlier post but this thread moves fast:

Let's say Covid-19 evolves into two separate additional strains, Strain A and Strain B.

Strain A: The virus mutates and hosts survive for longer than OG-Covid-19, with less obvious symptoms - leads to more of Strain A in the wild eventually outnumbering OG-Covid-19.

Strain B: The virus mutates and hosts die quicker than OG-Covid-19, with more obvious symptoms than OG-Covid-19 or Strain A. Hosts infected by Strain B are more likely to be identified and isolated, and die quicker before infecting as many others.

All other things being equal Strain A supplants OG-Covid-19 in the population.

This is basically what happened with Spanish Flu. There are already multiple mutations of Covid-19 in the population.

compshateme85
Jan 28, 2009

Oh you like racoons? Name three of their songs. You dope.

DickParasite posted:

For sure. I'm just looking for an easy retort to the claims the vaccine is "unproven" or the above poster's distrust of the medical establishment. Like, what's the most common vaccine that people have gotten in recent memory that went through the full approvals process? HPV?

The Ebola vaccine just got approved fairly recently.

AARP LARPer
Feb 19, 2005

THE DARK SIDE OF SCIENCE BREEDS A WEAPON OF WAR

Buglord

Eh, it's not really a big deal -- I'll be back on the list for an ab transplant in a week or two after I swap some money around. Six-pack, here I come!

AARP LARPer
Feb 19, 2005

THE DARK SIDE OF SCIENCE BREEDS A WEAPON OF WAR

Buglord
But seriously...if we've been swapping these viruses around for millennia, why is it that these outbreaks have seemingly only been happening during the last fifty years or so. Or do I have that totally wrong? It seems like mass diseases are accelerating.

Gynovore
Jun 17, 2009

Forget your RoboCoX or your StickyCoX or your EvilCoX, MY CoX has Blinking Bewbs!

WHY IS THIS GAME DEAD?!

AARP LARPer posted:

But seriously...if we've been swapping these viruses around for millennia, why is it that these outbreaks have seemingly only been happening during the last fifty years or so. Or do I have that totally wrong? It seems like mass diseases are accelerating.

Because nowadays world travel is commonplace. 100 years ago, if a deadly virus broke out in a small, unremarkable city, it would remain isolated there for a long time.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

AARP LARPer posted:

But seriously...if we've been swapping these viruses around for millennia, why is it that these outbreaks have seemingly only been happening during the last fifty years or so. Or do I have that totally wrong? It seems like mass diseases are accelerating.

1. more hits on the rng

2. lol the plague
the plague of justinian too
athenian plague
plague of antoinine
10 plagues of london incl. the 1666 one where newton hosed off and invented calculus
the columbian diseases

really the 20th century was a huge whack in the nuts to pandemic disease and now its starting up again

BlackIronHeart
Aug 2, 2004

PROCEED

Gynovore posted:

Because nowadays world travel is commonplace. 100 years ago, if a deadly virus broke out in a small, unremarkable city, it would remain isolated there for a long time.

Yeah, we can travel from London to Tokyo in about 12 hours these days but just stepping onto an aircraft was nearly impossible in 1920.

xtal
Jan 9, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
Even aside from that, the pandemics that are most often compared to covid are much older than 50 years, namely black death and the Spanish flu.

The advancements in medical science counteract the advancements in travel to some degree.

Efb

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

bob dobbs is dead posted:

1. more hits on the rng

2. lol the plague
the plague of justinian too
athenian plague
plague of antoinine
10 plagues of london incl. the 1666 one where newton hosed off and invented calculus
the columbian diseases


3. God mad at all the premarital sex

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bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
already said columbian diseases

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