Coronavirus 2021: I Threw Up On My Sheep

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yook: Mar 11, 2001; YES, CLIFFORD THE BIG RED DOG IS ABSOLUTELY A KAIJU

Yeah, this thing�s an economy crasher, so it�s hard to overstate the cost of an extra month or two of restrictions vs wasted production time.

I was going through my ballot guides yesterday and all these measures involving throwing around hundreds of millions of dollars kept having to have the disclaimer that it�s less than 1% of the states budget.

# ? Oct 19, 2020 16:21

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# ? May 26, 2024 16:53

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

If each vaccine costs $1 billion to get to production stages

And we spent what three trillion on bailing out the economy, probably 5 by next summer, 7 by next winter

How many vaccines can you develop for a trillion dollars, if you can get everyone who wants to be, vaccinated by summer and break even

# ? Oct 19, 2020 16:28

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

It was $6 trillion by mid-April of this year, according to this WaPo article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/15/coronavirus-economy-6-trillion/

# ? Oct 19, 2020 16:32

Zero VGS: Aug 16, 2002; ASK ME ABOUT HOW HUMAN LIVES THAT MADE VIDEO GAME CONTROLLERS ARE WORTH MORE; Lipstick Apathy

Greatest Living Man posted:

For some reason in the tourist areas of Munich this style is all the rage in the service industry:

It, uh, doesn't seem helpful.

e: cool cool cool
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZFJcu5T3dE

There should be a new mask campaign: I don't want to see your ugly face, you don't want to see my ugly face, let's protect each other from having to look at our ugly faces.

# ? Oct 19, 2020 17:07

MrQwerty: Apr 15, 2003; LOVE IS BEAUTIFUL (づ￣ �￣)づ♥(�∀�●)

Hadlock posted:

If each vaccine costs $1 billion to get to production stages

And we spent what three trillion on bailing out the economy, probably 5 by next summer, 7 by next winter

How many vaccines can you develop for a trillion dollars, if you can get everyone who wants to be, vaccinated by summer and break even

you can't because you can't vaccinate coronaviruses lol

# ? Oct 19, 2020 17:10

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Zero VGS posted:

There should be a new mask campaign: I don't want to see your ugly face, you don't want to see my ugly face, let's protect each other from having to look at our ugly faces.

I want to make a british teeth joke, but american teeth are their own level of terrible.

Self included.

# ? Oct 19, 2020 17:12

unpacked robinhood: Feb 18, 2013; by Fluffdaddy

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

It's also a grift.

It goes up in a wide half circle everytime you sneeze and contaminates everyone around, very helpful

# ? Oct 19, 2020 17:17

naem: May 29, 2011

unpacked robinhood posted:

It goes up in a wide half circle everytime you sneeze and contaminates everyone around, very helpful

it also funnels all floating virus droplets directly onto your neck and chin

# ? Oct 19, 2020 17:21

Rutibex: Sep 9, 2001; by Fluffdaddy

Philthy posted:

The amount of cost to simply 'dump it' would be insane. We've already seen 5-6 tests stop already haven't we?

dont worry they can simply change the label when a better vaccine comes out and sell it to the third world

# ? Oct 19, 2020 17:32

TheCenturion: May 3, 2013; HI I LIKE TO GIVE ADVICE ON RELATIONSHIPS

unpacked robinhood posted:

It goes up in a wide half circle everytime you sneeze and contaminates everyone around, very helpful

A lot of people whip their head forward to some extend when they sneeze. This design concentrates and flings the resulting ejects to maximize the viral plume on target.

# ? Oct 19, 2020 17:41

WithoutTheFezOn: Aug 28, 2005; Oh no

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

It was $6 trillion by mid-April of this year, according to this WaPo article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/15/coronavirus-economy-6-trillion/

Paywalled, but I would guess the $6T number includes purchases by the Federal Reserve.

# ? Oct 19, 2020 17:52

Snowglobe of Doom: Mar 30, 2012; sucks to be right

Let's check in on the Czech Republic!!

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1318129820010729473?r

Oh poo poo ....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/

Here's the kicker:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1317850298866716674

Europe is hosed

# ? Oct 19, 2020 18:00

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

WithoutTheFezOn posted:

Paywalled, but I would guess the $6T number includes purchases by the Federal Reserve.

quote:

By

Andrew Van Dam

April 15, 2020 at 10:26 a.m. MDT

In late February, the Trump administration said it planned to spend $2.5 billion to fight the coronavirus. A month and a half later, President Trump signed off on spending almost a thousand times as much — $2.35 trillion. And that amount doesn’t include the Federal Reserve’s efforts, which are harder to measure but seem likely to blow past the $4 trillion mark.

The dual rescues, each historic in its own way, put the country on track to eclipse World War II-era highs in the national debt and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.

All told, the U.S. government has committed more than $6 trillion to arrest the economic downturn from the pandemic. The moves appear to have calmed stock market investors but may not be enough to hold the economy together if the health crisis drags through the summer.

When you combine the steps taken by Congress and the Fed and account for how the two interact, America’s national coronavirus response represents more than a quarter of U.S. economic output. To feel the weight of that sentence, try thinking of “quarter” as a measure of time, not a fraction.

It’s a quarter of GDP. That is to say, the response from Congress and the Fed totals significantly more than the $5.4 trillion of goods and services spewed forth by the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Consider everything the government studies to estimate gross domestic product: military wages and pensions, record sales, toll booth returns on local highways, high school sports participation, sewage-collection receipts, manufactured-home shipments and even the value of meals farmers grow for themselves. There are about 2,500 measurements like that, and the coronavirus response could easily purchase everything they represent for more than three months.

The fiscal response

The three phases of congressional stimulus are relatively straightforward: There’s $8.3 billion in response to Trump’s $2.5 billion request, $192 billion for an act extending paid leave and an estimated $2.15 trillion for the Cares Act.

On its face, that’s the largest covid-19 response of any government in the world, according to Columbia University economist Ceyhun Elgin. In fact, it’s larger than the entire annual economic output of Italy, Brazil and all but seven countries.

Still, that number lacks context. Luckily, we can get plenty of context from Elgin, who spends several days each week updating a database of 168 countries’ responses to the pandemic, in between caring for coronavirus-positive family members and a 4-year-old.

After they adjusted the congressional response for the size of the U.S. economy, Elgin and his collaborators, Gokce Basbug (Sungkyunkwan University) and Abdullah Yalaman (Eskisehir Osmangazi University), found that the huge congressional stimulus was, proportionately, the world’s 10th largest.

Chart

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates stimulus spending, combined with current spending and the effects of the current recession, will contribute to a projected $3.8 trillion budget deficit in 2020 as well as a $2.1 trillion deficit the following year.

Chart

As those deficits pile up, they’re projected to lead to a notable national debt milestone: This year, for the first time since World War II, the United States will owe more than its economy can produce in a given year, the nonpartisan committee estimates. That’s expected to rise to 107 percent by 2025 and as high as 120 percent by 2030 — and that’s if major provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act aren’t renewed.

The monetary response

The Federal Reserve is probably doing as much (or more) to prop up the economy than Congress is, but its contributions are harder to measure. Several Fed interventions have no stated limit, and none of them is government spending in the traditional sense.

Peterson Institute for International Economics senior fellow Joe Gagnon, a veteran of the Treasury and Federal Reserve, said the Fed’s enormous pandemic response should be thought of as intermediation rather than spending.

“There’s a borrower and a lender out there, and they’re afraid of each other now — they don’t want to deal with each other because they don’t know if the borrower will go bankrupt, so the Fed is stepping in between, and Congress is giving the Fed money to guarantee those borrowers’ loans,” Gagnon said.

“It’s doing a lot of basically risk-free things to keep the economy working,” Gagnon said. To emphasize the safety of the Fed’s actions, Gagnon explained that, in an intervention of a similar scale in 2008, the Fed not only didn’t lose money — it came out ahead.

Unlike Congress’s spending, which shows up in the national debt, the lion’s share of these interventions will show up on the Fed’s balance sheet. The ledger, which totals up all the Treasury and mortgage-backed securities and other assets owned by the Federal Reserve, already ballooned from 4.16 trillion in late February to 6.08 trillion on April 8. The next update, expected Thursday afternoon, will show it lurching even higher.

How high can it go? That’s intensely complicated, but we can try back-of-the envelope math. The chart above ends on April 8. The Fed announced $2.3 trillion in new and updated programs on April 9. Combine that with the nearly $2 trillion the Fed already added to its balance sheet, and we’re looking at north of $4 trillion, even if some of those programs aren’t fully utilized.

That’s similar to the $4 trillion estimated by top Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, but those estimates, based on the $454 billion included in the Cares Act partly to facilitate Fed lending, didn’t include much of what we see on the balance sheet before April 9.

Given that several of the programs have no defined cap, it seems a safe bet that, as the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos wrote last week, the Fed will remain on track to double its balance sheet — a $4.5 trillion jump — by the middle of this year. That would pass the 40-percent-of-GDP line in the chart above, easily the highest point on that chart. But even if you look only at current programs, the theoretical maximum is much, much higher.

Before this year, the Fed had been reducing its balance sheet, as many argued it needed more wiggle room to fight the next crisis. Now that the next crisis has come, the Fed — and Congress — are finding more wiggle room than anybody had imagined.

So yeah, that figure includes the fed poo poo. That was six months ago. And let's not forget the repo window transactions to the banks last fall, before this covid poo poo started.

CRUSTY MINGE fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Oct 19, 2020

# ? Oct 19, 2020 18:01

Snowglobe of Doom: Mar 30, 2012; sucks to be right

Now let's check in on Belgium ....

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1318087603158212608

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

# ? Oct 19, 2020 18:04

Hyrax Attack!: Jan 13, 2009; We demand to be taken seriously

I've gotten the most poo poo about "I can't see your face when you wear a mask!" from two relatives who are the most guaranteed to have a rough time if they were infected.

# ? Oct 19, 2020 18:11

Hopper: Dec 28, 2004; BOOING! BOOING!; Grimey Drawer

Did you answer: Yeah I too am miffed you can't see my sneer of utter disgust at your idocy?

# ? Oct 19, 2020 19:37

Mierenneuker: Apr 28, 2010; We're all going to experience changes in our life but only the best of us will qualify for front row seats.

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Here's the kicker:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1317850298866716674

Europe is hosed

~~They want to czech themselves before~~ they wreck themselves.

# ? Oct 19, 2020 20:26

Facebook Aunt: Oct 4, 2008; wiggle wiggle

unpacked robinhood posted:

It goes up in a wide half circle everytime you sneeze and contaminates everyone around, very helpful

naem posted:

it also funnels all floating virus droplets directly onto your neck and chin

Yes, yes, but the important thing is that it doesn't mess up your hair or makeup.

I'm only half kidding. If you work for tips showing a big friendly smile can make a real difference in your take home pay.

# ? Oct 19, 2020 20:57

Mithaldu: Sep 25, 2007; Let's cuddle.

Facebook Aunt posted:

Yes, yes, but the important thing is that it doesn't mess up your hair or makeup.

I'm only half kidding. If you work for tips showing a big friendly smile can make a real difference in your take home pay.

# ? Oct 19, 2020 21:12

Mithaldu: Sep 25, 2007; Let's cuddle.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1318287392395198464

# ? Oct 19, 2020 21:30

zer0spunk: Nov 6, 2000; devil never even lived

All I want is a 3 second cutaway to fauci calmy looking into the camera and saying "yes, but I didn't catch covid"

# ? Oct 19, 2020 22:21

poverty goat: Feb 15, 2004

There's a cold around, several people in my life have it, a couple have been tested for covid and came back negative. Now I've got a dry cough and a little post-nasal drip action. It's just a cold... or is it???

Hope everyone else is having a good cold/flu season

# ? Oct 19, 2020 22:32

Pennywise the Frown: May 10, 2010; Upset Trowel

Mithaldu posted:

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1318287392395198464

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1318286327721480194

# ? Oct 19, 2020 22:48

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Let's check in on the Czech Republic!!

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1318129820010729473?r

Oh poo poo ....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/

Here's the kicker:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1317850298866716674

Europe is hosed

We did so well in the spring that basically everybody expected we would be able to handle the second wave far more limited measures than back then. Welp.

Also there were "midterm" elections just as the second wave was beginning to ramp up, so the government didn't want to piss people off by closing down schools or limiting social life too much.

# ? Oct 19, 2020 22:55

Fallows: Jan 20, 2005; If he waits long enough he can use his accrued interest from his savings to bring his negative checking balance back into the black.

Pennywise the Frown posted:

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1318286327721480194

lmbo

# ? Oct 19, 2020 23:03

Nam Taf: Jun 25, 2005; I am Fat Man, hear me roar!

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Let's check in on the Czech Republic!!

Yeh but remember when they had a big "Farewell Covid" long-table lunch on Charles Bridge back in July to celebrating beating it?

# ? Oct 20, 2020 00:51

zer0spunk: Nov 6, 2000; devil never even lived

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-updates-10-20-2020-11603183896

Going into winter with 60-70k daily cases is.. Going to be rough. Seems like we're two weeks behind the surges in Europe right now where they are starting to lock down again.

Here, the president told a rally yesterday he's bored of covid news and that it's a conspiracy by "the dumb bastards" at CNN to cover it all the time to get people not to vote (what).. Then made fun of the expert the public trusts over him for how he threw a baseball.

So we're pretty hosed, hope they count newly deceased votes

# ? Oct 20, 2020 14:06

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

^^^Good question. If you mail in a ballot and then die, no way for them to know you are dead, right? Gotta own the libs even if I'm dead!

# ? Oct 20, 2020 14:17

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

zer0spunk posted:

Here, the president told a rally yesterday he's bored of covid news and that it's a conspiracy by "the dumb bastards" at CNN to cover it all the time to get people not to vote (what).. Then made fun of the expert the public trusts over him for how he threw a baseball.

What is Trump going to talk about at his rallys after he gets voted out

localmanshoutsatcloud.jpg maybe

# ? Oct 20, 2020 14:22

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Hadlock posted:

What is Trump going to talk about at his rallys after he gets voted out

localmanshoutsatcloud.jpg maybe

Resurrecting the confederacy

# ? Oct 20, 2020 14:36

A Fancy Hat: Nov 18, 2016; Always remember that the former President was dumber than the dumbest person you've ever met by a wide margin

Hadlock posted:

What is Trump going to talk about at his rallys after he gets voted out

localmanshoutsatcloud.jpg maybe

Launching the Trump News Network to give you the "real news" the Demoncrats don't want you to hear!

For just $15.99 a month you too can be part of Trump's secret network of supporters!

# ? Oct 20, 2020 14:40

Bloody Hedgehog: Dec 12, 2003; 💥💥🤯💥💥
Gotta nuke something

Hadlock posted:

What is Trump going to talk about at his rallys after he gets voted out

localmanshoutsatcloud.jpg maybe

Guaranteed, GUARANTEED one of the first things he says is "I don't care that I was voted out, I never wanted to be president. I did it because the PEOPLE needed me. But being president is for losers, big losers, so I was happy to leave. I accomplished everything I needed to do to make america great again, and now I can leave this job to the losers. I defeated GINA, I defeated COVID, and now I'm going to go do great, many great things."

# ? Oct 20, 2020 14:40

zer0spunk: Nov 6, 2000; devil never even lived

Hadlock posted:

What is Trump going to talk about at his rallys after he gets voted out

localmanshoutsatcloud.jpg maybe

Hastily written title card that reads Donald j trump died on the way back to his home planet

# ? Oct 20, 2020 14:48

Mithaldu: Sep 25, 2007; Let's cuddle.

https://twitter.com/rabcyr_alt/status/1318597484550197248

# ? Oct 20, 2020 19:05

Another Bill: Sep 27, 2018; Born on the bayou
died in a cave
bbq and posting
is all I crave

Woo Sturgis baby!

# ? Oct 20, 2020 19:26

pro starcraft loser: Jan 23, 2006; Stand back, this could get messy.

Is that really correct?? Even at the height of this my state was at like...18.

# ? Oct 20, 2020 19:28

LLSix: Jan 20, 2010; The real power behind countless overlords

pro starcraft loser posted:

Is that really correct?? Even at the height of this my state was at like...18.

My county has never been as low as 18 a day or even 18 per 100,000 a day.

# ? Oct 20, 2020 19:40

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

pro starcraft loser posted:

Is that really correct?? Even at the height of this my state was at like...18.

Mostly just a factor of population. Until a virus has effectively 'run its course', per capita cases are going to swing widely from state to state. If the major metropolis in North/South Dakota has an uncontrolled outbreak, its per capita statistics will rapidly ramp up compared to any national average.

# ? Oct 20, 2020 19:54

Snowglobe of Doom: Mar 30, 2012; sucks to be right

pro starcraft loser posted:

Is that really correct?? Even at the height of this my state was at like...18.

Looks roughly correct to me. Both North and South Dakota's 7 day average was at ~700 cases yesterday according to worldometers.com and their populations are 760,000 and 880,000, which gives per capita rates of 92 and 79 per 100,000 residents.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Jeza posted:

Mostly just a factor of population. Until a virus has effectively 'run its course', per capita cases are going to swing widely from state to state. If the major metropolis in North/South Dakota has an uncontrolled outbreak, its per capita statistics will rapidly ramp up compared to any national average.

Yep, and the per capita infection stats in North & South Dakota are now the highest in the entire country. A little higher than Florida and WAY higher than New York or California.
North Dakota had about the same number of newly reported infections yesterday (and probably also today) as Arizona and Virginia, even though those states have about ten times the population.

Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Oct 20, 2020

# ? Oct 20, 2020 20:27

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# ? May 26, 2024 16:53

Polio Vax Scene: Apr 5, 2009

Jeza posted:

Mostly just a factor of population. Until a virus has effectively 'run its course', per capita cases are going to swing widely from state to state. If the major metropolis in North/South Dakota has an uncontrolled outbreak, its per capita statistics will rapidly ramp up compared to any national average.

It's this, there's no slow burn here either they are clean or it's going to look bad per capita since there's so few people in those states.

almost all of ND's and SD's pop is in these 6 red spots

# ? Oct 20, 2020 20:46

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