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Deteriorata posted:This is something that could, in principle, happen in any election. Which is why it doesn't and won't. My reading is that a joint session of the newly elected congress (so incoming new House + Senate based on Nov 3 results) certifies results. The House votes if there is a tie in the EC.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:15
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Solaris 2.0 posted:Can we not do this? How are people comfortable making any kind of prediction after the last four years? If I posted a summary of just 2020 to SA in ‘16 I would have been Baker Acted, and justifiably so. How can anybody, short of hopecasting, assume they can know the future when this much is in flux? I don’t think Trump will win, but who the gently caress knows if that’s true, or what the actual result of voting will be in relation to who is president for the next four years. How can you be this confident? What does this emerge from besides optimism?
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Oct 27, 2020 20:18
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Potato Salad posted:uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh 
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Oct 27, 2020 20:18
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Dick Trauma posted:The GOP can declare whatever they want. Even if every single elector in America went for Biden the GOP can just say "Trump won" and that's it. Trump and the GOP control every possible mechanism that could get him to leave the White House, and if necessary they can rally the police, military and their cultists to unleash chaos nationwide. this kind of doom posting has got to stop goddamn
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Oct 27, 2020 20:19
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TheOneAndOnlyT posted:The military has absolutely no interest in helping Trump steal an election, and they're the ones with the most power to make it happen, as well as the most power to ensure Trump leaves. How? The military is likely to not get involved and leave it the federal government to sort it out. The summer protests are evident of that. Granted there are easier ways to steal an election (Bush v. Gore) but it’s not exactly far fetched. I see a lot of folks saying “there’s a system” despite all of evidence during 2020.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:19
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Dick Trauma posted:The GOP can declare whatever they want. Even if every single elector in America went for Biden the GOP can just say "Trump won" and that's it. Trump and the GOP control every possible mechanism that could get him to leave the White House, and if necessary they can rally the police, military and their cultists to unleash chaos nationwide. as much as the media sucks. they arnt gonna buy into whatever bullshit trump spins that night. if they were giving trumps bullshit creadence, we would be seeing hunter bidens censored sex tape every night. the media loving hates trump for dumb petty reasons but its enough to make them not give his bullshit creadence. least for now. TheOneAndOnlyT posted:The military has absolutely no interest in helping Trump steal an election, and they're the ones with the most power to make it happen, as well as the most power to ensure Trump leaves. that too. if we are gonna talk worst realistic cases of established power bending toward trump, i can see some cops trying to look the other way if some chud goes on a rampage at a voting statiion or a election party but even that i sorta doubt. not because cops are good but because if they did decided to go full civil protection for trump. a gently caress ton of cops would probably die in the ensuing super riot/unrest/whatever. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Oct 27, 2020 |
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Oct 27, 2020 20:19
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Dapper_Swindler posted:this. as much as the media sucks. they arnt gonna buy into whatever bullshit trump spins that night. if they were giving trumps bullshit creadence, we would be seeing hunter bidens censored sex tape every night. the media loving hates trump for dumb petty reasons but its enough to make them not give his bullshit creadence. least for now. You just agreed with someone saying the exact opposite of reality.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:21
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There was a really interesting article I read that I’ve seen referenced ITT that talked about the history of American politics. The gist was that there used to be dominant political parties (GOP post Civil War and Dems post FDR) -- and what makes our current era distinct and unusual (and destabilizing) is the constant pendulum swinging back and forth between two parties. Does this sound familiar to anyone? I can't remember which article it was but I want to reread it
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Oct 27, 2020 20:21
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Potato Salad posted:uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh They've got something up their sleeve. They've had plenty of time to stack the deck in their favor.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:21
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Bottom Liner posted:this kind of doom posting has got to stop goddamn Election day is literally a week from today, everyone is going to be flipping out more and more until it's over. After the past four years this was always how the run up was going to be
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Oct 27, 2020 20:22
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Just a PSA I helped a neighbor register to vote October 5th in GA. His registration hadn’t processed as of today. I had to call the local election office and his info was just sitting in a file waiting for them to process. No guarantee it would have been done by Election Day. Check your registration and encourage everyone you know to check theirs.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:24
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I just found out Kelly Loeffler made three different "Attila the Hun" ads, and this one might be the stupidest. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZkz4Im4Oj8
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Oct 27, 2020 20:27
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I think things like actual voter intimidation in swing states (or legal voter suppression by GOP Governors, even though the courts have been helping there) is a way bigger concern than "Trump just refuses to leave." The former may also save some contentious GOP Senate seats and sets the ground for Trump to turn to legal challenges and muddying the waters if the election is close. Trump is currently losing so badly that even Texas is relatively close compared to recent elections, so I don't think it's going to be close enough for that to work, but it could make things harder.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:29
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There's an attempt to stop the extension in Minnesota too. https://kstp.com/news/court-to-hear-challenge-to-minnesota-mailed-ballot-extension/5907192/?cat=1
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Oct 27, 2020 20:29
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The best way to ensure that there's no question about who won is for Biden to win by a very large margin. What you do with that is up to you.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:31
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Potato Salad posted:uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Hmmm a state that grew its voting population 2016-2020 in large part via PR families moving onto the mainland after Maria. I can actually see him losing Florida by several points.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:32
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Bottom Liner posted:this kind of doom posting has got to stop goddamn It really does.  IK Note Just gonna lay it out officially, it's one thing to point out things the GOP/Trump/SCOTUS/The Lincoln Project could realistically do to influence the outcome of the election. It's another entirely to basically post Seth Abramson fan fiction about how the GOP is going to steal the election using their patented Rube Goldberg device that only you seem to see and understand. I get everyone is on edge right now. I'm on edge right now. But I'm gonna be extra judicious with probes for pointless doom posting that isn't based in objective reality going forward. It's not adding anything worthwhile to conversation at large, and only exacerbates peoples anxieties. Handsome Ralph fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Oct 27, 2020 |
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Oct 27, 2020 20:32
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Murgos posted:Jeesus F Christ. Every state has their own deadlines for counting mail in ballots. For example, Delaware, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Vermont, and Virginia have deadlines that are within 1 week of the election. States like California has 17 days to count election results, but it took then 47 days to count up results from the primaries this year with the increased mail in ballots. Things are going to be hosed. There are already lawsuits in states that are preventing the deadlines from being extended, and there are going to be lawsuits to prevent ballots from being counted when deadlines are missed. The deadline for when electors cast ballots is Dec 14th, 2020. And California wouldn't have been able to make that deadline in the primaries
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Oct 27, 2020 20:33
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selec posted:How are people comfortable making any kind of prediction after the last four years? If I posted a summary of just 2020 to SA in ‘16 I would have been Baker Acted, and justifiably so. The problem with using "but the last four years" as some wild card is that they've only showed us that the Trump administration isn't competent enough to stage a coup. Maybe the 2016 Trump administration could have, but they're all fired, quit, or in jail. The 2020 Trump administration is down to the fifth-string team that couldn't even run a reelection campaign without grifting it to death. Mark Meadows is the loving chief of staff. Rudy Giuliani, who just got dunked by Borat, is the "fixer". It is a clown show in the White House. They are not couping anything.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:34
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Is there a GE Toxx thread? : If, at 12 noon Eastern on Wednesday, November 4, Donald Trump has been projected to receive at least 270 electoral votes, I will randomly select a Trump voter from my local area and post a video in which I invite that person to punch me in the face.(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 27, 2020 20:35
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What is being litigated right now are judicial decisions which overturned existing election law to better accommodate increased mail in voting due to the pandemic. That is very different than a court determining if, say, mail in ballots are legal in general. Even in the worst case scenarios we're talking about thousands to tens of thousands of ballots - not millions - which may impact local or state races, but *fingers crossed* are likely to not impact the Presidential election unless you are in a very, very close race. Or, in other words, if Trump loses PA by 6 points it doesn't matter what happens to 5,000 late arriving ballots.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:35
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Handsome Ralph posted:It really does. It’s hard to agree with this when the past few years have seen laws and norms broken with impunity. -Enriching himself via the position -Hiring his children to manage government work -What even is the Hatch Act anymore? -Refusal to respond to subpoenas -just endless lies without consequence But this is where you think they’d draw the line?
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Oct 27, 2020 20:36
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Xombie posted:The problem with using "but the last four years" as some wild card is that they've only showed us that the Trump administration isn't competent enough to stage a coup. Maybe the 2016 Trump administration could have, but they're all fired, quit, or in jail. The 2020 Trump administration is down to the fifth-string team that couldn't even run a reelection campaign without grifting it to death. Mark Meadows is the loving chief of staff. Rudy Giuliani, who just got dunked by Borat, is the "fixer". It is a clown show in the White House. They are not couping anything. I want to emphasize that Giuliani is one of Trump's closest advisors, and he blew up something that other advisors and a chud journo at the WSJ were cooking up for weeks by going to the NY Post with it, without warning or even telling anyone. Some of the conspirators in that plan literally woke up to discover that Giuliani had tanked the whole thing. This man is one one of the would-be coup assistants.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:36
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Potato Salad posted:uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Oct 27, 2020 20:37
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mdemone posted:Hmmm a state that grew its voting population 2016-2020 in large part via PR families moving onto the mainland after Maria. Florida went blue in 3 of the last 6 presidential elections. Arguably 4. Despite how loving backwards the rural parts of the state are we are still a swing state.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:39
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:What is being litigated right now are judicial decisions which overturned existing election law to better accommodate increased mail in voting due to the pandemic. That is very different than a court determining if, say, mail in ballots are legal in general. Even in the worst case scenarios we're talking about thousands to tens of thousands of ballots - not millions - which may impact local or state races, but *fingers crossed* are likely to not impact the Presidential election unless you are in a very, very close race. PA’s state legislator passed a law that ballots couldn’t be counted before Election Day. If ballots also can’t be counted after Election Day this uhhhhh will causes hundreds of thousands or millions of ballots to not be counted.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:40
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selec posted:It’s hard to agree with this when the past few years have seen laws and norms broken with impunity. Literally none of this is in the same universe as declaring a national electoral defeat null and void. What you're talking about is on the level of tweeting "Ivanka is the new supreme court justice" and it somehow happens, not giving her a cushy job like every other politician does.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:40
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My Twitter Account posted:Is there a GE Toxx thread? This is the stupidest toxx I've ever seen. You should punch yourself in the face, then go donate some money to RAICES
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Oct 27, 2020 20:41
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CornHolio posted:Thank you for this post, I found it very informative. I've never done a mail-in ballot and was skeptical as to how it would work but it looks like it's a lot more robust (at least in your state) than I imagined it would be. I'm glad you found it helpful. One thing worth noting: the process isn't just theoretically robust, it's been tested under pressure. In 2004, Washington had a very tightly contested gubernatorial election - the margin of victory came down to 133 votes and 0.005 points, with lead flipping between the two major-party candidates through several recounts. In 2004, the state wasn't all-mail-in, but mail-in voting was well-established and a popular option. There were all kinds of process questions about the count, but the courts looked at the underpinnings of the mail-in system as well as everything else around the voting process, and found it all fundamentally sound. Mail-in voting tends to have a strong positive effect on turnout. It also allows you to vote naked, with at least a mild buzz from your drug of choice, and screaming insults at the people on the ballot you hate most, as the founding fathers of this country intended. It is a good thing and if it's available to you, you should do it!
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Oct 27, 2020 20:42
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Dapper_Swindler posted:he is praying its close enough that it will work out like that. thing is, its probably not gonna be. loving texas is early voter count is higher than 2016 and is probably winnable, plus the other flip states. trumps/SCOTUS only matter if we get some insane 2000 close call election where they can bullshit. its probably not gonna be like that. i predict by the time we get to PA, we will know the winner probably. Trump needs PA. biden doesn't, Bloomberg has $100 million in Florida for Biden and now he’s going to Ohio and Texas with $15 million (Bloomberg). Trump is desperately trying to hang on at this point based on his internals I’m guessing. It’s still not in the bag but I’d rather be Biden than Trump at this point. Bloomberg alone is spending more than Trump’s CoH this month. If Bloomberg takes Ohio from Trump it will infuriate him as much as losing to Biden. Doubtful Texas is turning blue but anything to run up the numbers and flip house districts and state legislatures. Edit: I think the media has done a huge disservice by not pushing back on Trump and co’s lies about mail in ballots. I know why he’s doing it but what would be wrong with the NYT and other outlets highlighting how Washington and Oregon’s VBM systems (Oregon requires ballots by 8pm and Washington allows up to 5 days for ballots to return but both are extremely secure). Glumwheels fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Oct 27, 2020 |
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Oct 27, 2020 20:42
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selec posted:It’s hard to agree with this when the past few years have seen laws and norms broken with impunity. Hi, I'm not sure where you saw in my post that I said that was a line that the GOP wouldn't cross or that they weren't capable of caring out such an act, but that's certainly not what I was implying. I merely asked that if people want to post about how they think the GOP is going to somehow steal the election, they stay within the bounds of reality instead of doom posting and theory crafting realities that don't exist. Thanks!
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Oct 27, 2020 20:43
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selec posted:It’s hard to agree with this when the past few years have seen laws and norms broken with impunity. This has all happened before, Trump's the only one that doesn't care about hiding it. E: The only thing that hadn't happened before, I suppose, was the hiring children, since no president has had adult children before. But family members, yes (Hilly Clinton on a task force in 1993). Kalit fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Oct 27, 2020 |
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Oct 27, 2020 20:43
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meanwhile our media is having a very normal one to prep for Joe's agenda https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1320735256220176392
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Oct 27, 2020 20:43
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The thing I'm looking forward to the most is the defeated faces of any GOP Congresspeople or Senators who lose because of how much of a trainwreck being tied to Trump is. At least one of them is going to top Santorum dot jpeg.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:45
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:What is being litigated right now are judicial decisions which overturned existing election law to better accommodate increased mail in voting due to the pandemic. That is very different than a court determining if, say, mail in ballots are legal in general. Even in the worst case scenarios we're talking about thousands to tens of thousands of ballots - not millions - which may impact local or state races, but *fingers crossed* are likely to not impact the Presidential election unless you are in a very, very close race. Yes, at some point if the outstanding amount of uncounted mail in ballots is less than any candidates lead, it doesn't matter. But there will surely be those smaller positions that come down to very small margins. Like... how often to ballots just go uncounted? Is this a thing that has ever happened? Like Califnornia missed their deadline, but still counted them. My fear is that Trump files lawsuits to stop counting ballots and the supreme court agrees.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:46
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skylined! posted:PA’s state legislator passed a law that ballots couldn’t be counted before Election Day. If ballots also can’t be counted after Election Day this uhhhhh will causes hundreds of thousands or millions of ballots to not be counted. It's not about counting - it's about receiving. Most states fall into either: 1. State must receive your ballot by end of election day 2. State must receive your ballot by Election Day + X days, AND your ballot must be postmarked by Election Day Now, there are problems with both of these due to mail delays: 1. If the mail is delayed, the state might not receive your ballot by election day even though you mailed it well in advance. There are some judicial rulings that have said "State, you gotta use Election Day + X days because the Post Office is loving up". 2. Sometimes mail doesn't get postmarked properly. Postmarking *is the job of the Post Office* so if it's not postmarked properly, ipso facto it's the federal government's fault and not the voter. So there are some judicial rulings that say "If you receive a ballot inside the Election + X Day window, and its postmark is illegible, you must treat it as if it were postmarked on time". Both of these types of rulings help vote-by-mail voters, who are Democrat, so Republicans are opposing these very reasonable changes. Devor fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Oct 27, 2020 |
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Oct 27, 2020 20:47
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Handsome Ralph posted:Hi, I'm not sure where you saw in my post that I said that was a line that the GOP wouldn't cross or that they weren't capable of caring out such an act, but that's certainly not what I was implying. I merely asked that if people want to post about how they think the GOP is going to somehow steal the election, they stay within the bounds of reality instead of doom posting and theory crafting realities that don't exist. Thanks! I mean I hope you’re right, but I’ve been preparing mentally and materially for the worst.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:48
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skylined! posted:PA’s state legislator passed a law that ballots couldn’t be counted before Election Day. If ballots also can’t be counted after Election Day this uhhhhh will causes hundreds of thousands or millions of ballots to not be counted. Yeah, but you're conflating two different things - the law says they can't count the ballots *that arrived beforehand* until Election Day; the decision said they can't include ballots that arrived after Election Day. Which is bullshit, but it's cutting off the tail end, not the whole thing.
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Oct 27, 2020 20:49
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i need to repost something from the polliwonks thread https://twitter.com/_Dinger_s/status/1321171160944562179 the Trump campaign is not doing any polls of their important states they're literally pulling the exact same poo poo that Clinton did in 2016 revenge of Robby Mook
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Oct 27, 2020 20:49
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Bicyclops posted:The thing I'm looking forward to the most is the defeated faces of any GOP Congresspeople or Senators who lose because of how much of a trainwreck being tied to Trump is. At least one of them is going to top Santorum dot jpeg. I hope I find Cory Gardner eating out of a dumpster in a year or two
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