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The Oldest Man posted:And again, the Democrats had to keep Joe Biden out of the room to prevent him giving away the farm to Republicans in Senate negotiations. Joe Biden's not some master strategic operator! He's the guy who trades his cow for loving magic beans! Is there any kind of evidence that he was "just" doing what his boss wanted? I always had the impression that Obama was the one who insisted at stating any negotiation at its mid-point instead of "all of what I want". Biden really contributed to that?
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Nov 9, 2020 20:57
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| # ? May 24, 2024 01:03 |
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I'm suggesting that unfalsifiable counterfactuals are not particularly useful. There is no difference in saying "Biden only won because of COVID" and "Donald Trump only exists because of his parents having sex and him surviving childhood". It doesn't matter. Donald Trump was born and Joe Biden did win, and the reason for Biden's win is far more complex than "just COVID" - but even if it was "just COVID", things are path dependent, so... who cares? Also I think its fair to judge people by their track record of previous predictions. I am happy to own up to my wrong predictions - that this would be a much less close election and that Biden would win Florida for example.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:00
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:I'm suggesting that unfalsifiable counterfactuals are not particularly useful. There is no difference in saying "Biden only won because of COVID" and "Donald Trump only exists because of his parents having sex and him surviving childhood". It doesn't matter. Donald Trump was born and Joe Biden did win, and the reason for Biden's win is far more complex than "just COVID" - but even if it was "just COVID", things are path dependent, so... who cares? I never said it was "just COVID," though. I said it was necessary for his win, which, given how close it was, it probably was necessary.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:02
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COVID also helped incumbents all over the world! We think that it hurt Trump, but we think that because of the polls, which are the only real empirical evidence we have, and as has been pointed out, had serious problems this cycle. If the polls that showed Biden well ahead of Trump before everything went down can’t be trusted, I see no reason to not extend that skepticism to the polls showing COVID hurting Trump. I don’t dispute that COVID had an impact on the election. I do dispute the idea that the election was a sure thing without it though. We don’t know the magnitude of the effect, or the direction of it. I think that Biden (Or Bernie or Warren, etc.) could have won without it.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:04
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:I'm suggesting that unfalsifiable counterfactuals are not particularly useful. There is no difference in saying "Biden only won because of COVID" and "Donald Trump only exists because of his parents having sex and him surviving childhood". It doesn't matter. Donald Trump was born and Joe Biden did win, and the reason for Biden's win is far more complex than "just COVID" - but even if it was "just COVID", things are path dependent, so... who cares? Sure, but it also doesn't seem controversial to speculate that the biggest issue/event that's defining this year probably played the biggest role in an election decided by relatively small numbers of votes in a few specific states. Anyway, on topic: I vote 5. Infinitely higher than Trump by definition; substantial room to succeed my modest expectations.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:06
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69 
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Nov 9, 2020 21:07
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Cheesus posted:I'm not surprised. Well he was doing it when he was a Senator and never stopped.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:08
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Still Dismal posted:COVID also helped incumbents all over the world! Ehhhh, but few elected incumbents all over the world mishandled COVID as catastrophically as Trump did.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:14
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Hitler could have absolutely rose to power if Germany never lost a world war and entered the worst depression in the world, you just never know!Majorian posted:Ehhhh, but few elected incumbents all over the world mishandled COVID as catastrophically as Trump did. Parties that handled COVID badly got the boot. Those that didn't were reelected.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:15
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Basically the litmus test is the student debt stuff for me. If he embraces Schumer’s call to cancel it and actually does it I’m pretty excited because it shows that they’re not going to wait for Mitch McConnell to come around, and the last couple of years have shown that a divided congress can’t really do poo poo to check the executive anyway. It would also improve the lives of millions and be a massive economic boost, basically a ad hoc stimulus.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:15
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punk rebel ecks posted:Hitler could have absolutely rose to power if Germany never lost a world war and entered the worst depression in the world, you just never know! I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but yes you really can't ever know. This is a counterfactual and while it might be fun for writing historical fanfiction it's a useless line of thought for any serious historical analysis.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:16
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punk rebel ecks posted:Parties that handled COVID badly got the boot. Those that didn't were reelected. Right, and Trump narrowly got the boot, while Republicans kept the Senate and made gains in the House. So again, it's not hard to imagine that Trump probably would have done better without COVID.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:18
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Still Dismal posted:Basically the litmus test is the student debt stuff for me. If he embraces Schumer’s call to cancel it and actually does it I’m pretty excited because it shows that they’re not going to wait for Mitch McConnell to come around, and the last couple of years have shown that a divided can’t really do poo poo to check the executive anyway. This is a good point. My number will vary greatly based upon the unilateral action he can take. He's signaled he will reverse a number of Trump EOs, and his follow through on that will affect how I feel.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:18
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Fojar38 posted:I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but yes you really can't ever know. This is a counterfactual and while it might be fun for writing historical fanfiction it's a useless line of thought for any serious historical analysis. It's true that "you can never know" but at some point you have to connect the dots, especially when they are giant and are in a straight line. Trump's popularity fell substantially during the COVID crisis and even after that he barely lost by a razor's edge.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:19
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Again, if you believe the polls that say Trump’s popularity fell due to COVID, then you can’t ignore the ones that showed him as losing to basically any democrat before COVID. You can’t have it both ways, either the polls were reliable or they weren’t.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:46
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Still Dismal posted:Again, if you believe the polls that say Trump’s popularity fell due to COVID, then you can’t ignore the ones that Not true, you can suggest that the polls are incapable of showing absolute levels of support but that comparing poll for poll over a short timespan can probably show changes in support. Which is not an unusual thing, it is possible for many metrics to be unreliable at showing absolute quantities of a thing but still capable of showing changes in quantity even if miscalibrated.
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Nov 9, 2020 21:50
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Still Dismal posted:Again, if you believe the polls that say Trump’s popularity fell due to COVID, then you can’t ignore the ones that Hi, I'm correlated errors
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Nov 9, 2020 22:04
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“Changes in support” are exactly what presidential candidate polls track over time though. Everything that would have effected one set of polls (non-response bias, social desirability bias, screens, etc.)would have effected the other. In many cases it was the exact same companies doing the polling. For the record, I do think COVID hurt Trump. But I also think any Dem had a good shot at winning even without the virus, because that’s what the data pre-March shows us. Fill Baptismal fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Nov 9, 2020 |
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Nov 9, 2020 22:05
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It is entirely possible for a polling methodology to consistently estimate support incorrectly by the same margin. i.e if it says you're ten points ahead, you're actually five points ahead, if it says you're five points ahead, you're even. Because the method consistently puts you out by five points due to a weighting error. But you can still suggest that a five point change occured at some point between those two polls.
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Nov 9, 2020 22:16
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We also now have evidence that COVID helped Trump - both because it helped activate a segment of the population for him (QAnon) and because people liked that they got a check for him and judge the economy by "how much money I have in my hand and who gave it to me" and not unemployment numbers.
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Nov 9, 2020 22:18
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:We also now have evidence that COVID helped Trump - both because it helped activate a segment of the population for him (QAnon) and because people liked that they got a check for him and judge the economy by "how much money I have in my hand and who gave it to me" and not unemployment numbers. quote:WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Americans are steadily losing confidence in President Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, with his net approval on the issue that has dominated the U.S. election hitting a record low in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. I mean, you can believe whatever you want.
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Nov 9, 2020 22:45
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The Oldest Man posted:I mean, you can believe whatever you want. A lot of that comes from people who were most likely already going to vote for Biden. But when it comes down to it, more people still rated the economy as a higher priority than the pandemic: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/21/only-24-of-trump-supporters-view-the-coronavirus-outbreak-as-a-very-important-voting-issue/  I'm trying to find exit polling on numbers for who changed the candidate they were voting for either way. On one hand, you have the COVID response catastrophe. On the other hand, you have fear mongering about Biden "shutting down the entire economy and killing our jobs". I'm still not sold on the COVID response being a single reason why Trump loss. Kalit fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Nov 9, 2020 |
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Nov 9, 2020 22:54
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In reality I’m at about a 3 or a 4. But on social media, I’ve decided to act as obnoxiously about Biden as Trump’s supporters do for him. Just being a real rear end in a top hat about it. So I’m definitely a 10 there. I’m posting/tweeting stuff like “The Trump Train has been DERAILED. No more Merry Christmas. You’re RIDIN’ with BIDEN now! Better get used to Happy Holidays.” Or “No matter what he’s YOUR president and you need to support him for the good of our country!” Also, “Whether your candidate won or lost, we should all be proud that a RECORD number of Americans came out to vote!”
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Nov 9, 2020 22:54
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Sublimer posted:In reality I’m at about a 3 or a 4. But on social media, I’ve decided to act as obnoxiously about Biden as Trump’s supporters do for him. Just being a real rear end in a top hat about it. So I’m definitely a 10 there. I’m posting/tweeting stuff like “The Trump Train has been DERAILED. No more Merry Christmas. You’re RIDIN’ with BIDEN now! Better get used to Happy Holidays.” Or “No matter what he’s YOUR president and you need to support him for the good of our country!” Also, “Whether your candidate won or lost, we should all be proud that a RECORD number of Americans came out to vote!” This post rules. Good for you. Time to update my Facebook page and text my relatives. (This is not sarcastic).
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Nov 9, 2020 22:55
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Kalit posted:A lot of that comes from people who were most likely already going to vote for Biden. But when it comes down to it, more people still rated the economy as a higher priority than the pandemic: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/21/only-24-of-trump-supporters-view-the-coronavirus-outbreak-as-a-very-important-voting-issue/ Sure, but the nature and depth of the ongoing economic downturn has been pretty dependent on the pandemic. The economy still would have been bad without the virus, but probably not "incumbent loses reelection for the first time in almost 30 years" bad.
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Nov 9, 2020 23:12
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Glass of Milk posted:This was, what, 2012? I think the world has changed since then. Joe "Republicans are good people" Biden, Joe "republicans are being floated for cabinet spots" Biden, is not going to stand up to them, you simp.
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Nov 9, 2020 23:14
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Dumper Humper posted:Joe "Republicans are good people" Biden, Joe "republicans are being floated for cabinet spots" Biden, is not going to stand up to them, you simp. And so we press him now and hold him accountable if he doesn't. But going in with abject defeatism from the get go seems pretty loving stupid.
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Nov 9, 2020 23:31
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The question of how you hold him accountable other than by not voting for him arises. And of course the next election will likely be against someone just as repugnant as trump. And previous defeats have not caused the democrats to change course. So the question is pretty open ended, I think.
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Nov 9, 2020 23:32
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Majorian posted:Sure, but the nature and depth of the ongoing economic downturn has been pretty dependent on the pandemic. The economy still would have been bad without the virus, but probably not "incumbent loses reelection for the first time in almost 30 years" bad. Oh yea, I 100% agree with the first part of that statement. Which is why it's very important for people to look at Sweden for why not enforcing any lockdown measures doesn't actually help out the economy any. Unfortunately, there are a lot of people that can't seem to put the two together, which is why fear mongering over Biden locking everything down has worked. So while I'm sure there are some people who voted for Biden when they wouldn't have otherwise because of the pandemic response, I'm sure there are also some people who voted Trump who wouldn't have otherwise because of their perceived threat to the economy by more pandemic-related business restrictions (I likely have a family member that falls into this category). So I think this aspect needs to be taken into account when talking about the outcome of the election and how it could have shifted because of the pandemic. Especially since it would have to be very state specific in order to confirm that without the pandemic, Trump would have won the election. Kalit fucked around with this message at 23:36 on Nov 9, 2020 |
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Nov 9, 2020 23:33
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Glass of Milk posted:And so we press him now and hold him accountable if he doesn't. But going in with abject defeatism from the get go seems pretty loving stupid. OwlFancier posted:The question of how you hold him accountable other than by not voting for him arises. So Glass of Milk if he puts a bunch of Republicans in his cabinet and presses an austerity budget while a few million Americans end up in the street and the concentration camps stay open, will you commit right now to hold him accountable by not voting for him or Kamala Harris in 2024 regardless of what kind of shambling Lovecraftian horror the GOP nominates?
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Nov 9, 2020 23:34
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OwlFancier posted:The question of how you hold him accountable other than by not voting for him arises. The question of how this logic leads to anything other than accelerationism arises. (edit: once a Biden is the general candidate, I mean; certainly in primaries I agree that this matters)
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Nov 9, 2020 23:35
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Sarcastro posted:The question of how this logic leads to anything other than accelerationism arises. Is there a number of bodies, caged children, raped women, and immiserated poor people on the "good" trolley track where you start rejecting the premise of the trolley problem framing of this issue, or is it just infinite tolerance and voting for Hitler But One Less Person Killed is thoroughly correct to you?
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Nov 9, 2020 23:37
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Sarcastro posted:The question of how this logic leads to anything other than accelerationism arises. Well, yes, it does. That is an answer to the question. It is a very depressing answer to the question, their seeming inability to change in response to losing elections also suggests that it is not necessarily a valid answer to the question. I said it was an open ended question for a reason. How do you affect the course of a political organization that does not respond to petition and also does not respond to loss?
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Nov 9, 2020 23:38
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Glass of Milk posted:And so we press him now and hold him accountable if he doesn't. But going in with abject defeatism from the get go seems pretty loving stupid. Just a reminder, on 1/20/21 Joe Biden can legally put you on a classified kill list and have you vaporized, literally vaporized. That is the power differential you will have to overcome. How are you going to hold him accountable?
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Nov 9, 2020 23:39
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For what it's worth I am sympathetic to the use of "we have to hold them accountable" as a sort of thought terminating cliche, because yes, the alternative is profoundly unpleasant to contemplate. But I also cannot actually construct a real defence of it? Like I entirely get that it is a thing you can believe, but I cannot actually construct what I think is a compelling argument as to why it is an accurate thing to believe. I do not have a better answer, but I also cannot say that that answer has anything to suggest it is correct.
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Nov 9, 2020 23:42
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A 5. I’m looking forward to some stability and relief. He’s got a lot of clean up to do and my expectations are low. I’m more concerned about how to build for 2022 and 2024 and the Progressives.
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Nov 9, 2020 23:42
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OwlFancier posted:Well, yes, it does. That is an answer to the question. It is a very depressing answer to the question, their seeming inability to change in response to losing elections also suggests that it is not necessarily a valid answer to the question. I said it was an open ended question for a reason. How do you affect the course of a political organization that does not respond to petition and also does not respond to loss? Thank you for engaging in a non-disingenuous manner, sincerely. I'd say that the answer to your question is to start out by pushing leftward at the lower levels (local, state, House) to build the pyramid from the ground up and make it not only inevitable but sustainable. Yes, you will meet resistance from the old guard, and yes, they will use their power and influence to try to stymie you, but if you go wide and then go up, they'll only be able to for so long. I think the DSA is doing a very good job at this so far (obviously pending), so I'm hopeful that they will continue to gain numbers and influence.
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Nov 9, 2020 23:45
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That is, I would hope, the best answer, but I also don't think it is enormously dissimilar from accelerationism given that if you are building a viable alternative form of political power then the question arises as to why you would waste it trying to lobby the democratic party instead of like, overthrowing the government or something. Or at the very least trying to build forms of resiliance and resistance that can survive hostile administrations from both parties and give people direct benefits. If you are looking to build something that can take power away from the democrats then it doesn't seem like a massive leap to suggest you're building something that can fundamentally take power away from the government entirely.
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Nov 9, 2020 23:49
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OwlFancier posted:That is, I would hope, the best answer, but I also don't think it is enormously dissimilar from accelerationism given that if you are building a viable alternative form of political power then the question arises as to why you would waste it trying to lobby the democratic party instead of like, overthrowing the government or something. I don't think it can be described as lobbying the Democratic party at all; it's absolutely a takeover attempt. You just simply can't do that from the top unless you go for the same sort of personality cult thing that Trump did, and I'm definitely not going to advocate for that.
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Nov 9, 2020 23:55
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I think the idea of "holding them accountable" is a larger proxy for "what does progressive activism look outside of voting in general elections?". I think that is a very worthy question that has quite a few answers. Most of us here want the same things - even down to particular policies - and I would hope people would be engaged in advocating for those things even between elections.
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Nov 9, 2020 23:56
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