|
Completely unrelated to the current discussion but I've discovered South African House and I'm in love. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbYfjstimOo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrOa9inZUE4
|
#
?
Nov 15, 2020 06:23
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 07:52 |
|
|
It’s FP, so keep their biases in mind, but here’s an interesting article https://outline.com/4ERG4A FP posted:Although Tigray is small, it is well armed, and its forces are battle-hardened. Tigray’s regional special forces, which a senior Ethiopian diplomat estimates have grown to at least 20,000 commandos—led by senior Tigrayan officers forced into retirement by Abiy, plus a standing body of reserve special forces made up of military-trained militia and armed farmers—together have an estimated total of up to 250,000 armed fighters. Until recently, however, it lacked the heavy weaponry required to directly confront a fully-equipped division. quote:From the beginning, it was clear that Abiy was intent on provocation, but he did not anticipate the TPLF could supplant an entire military command. In late October, a week before the TPLF took control of the remaining Northern Command in Tigray, Abiy created a new regional command in Ethiopia’s Amhara state, with the two divisions of the Northern Command already stationed in Amhara slated to be transferred into its ranks.
|
|
#
?
Nov 15, 2020 10:14
|
|
|
falz is so cool https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ieglAgBsbc
|
|
#
?
Nov 15, 2020 10:55
|
|
|
I want to learn more about Congo, does anyone have good links or recommendations?
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2020 21:21
|
|
|
mila kunis posted:I want to learn more about Congo, does anyone have good links or recommendations? https://www.amazon.com/King-Leopold...ps%2C274&sr=8-1
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2020 21:24
|
|
|
I’ve read it and it’s really good although also pretty old now so I don’t know if there’s anything better that’s more recent.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2020 21:26
|
|
|
Turns out I have several recommendations: 
o Colonial Exploitation and Economic Development: The Belgian Congo and the Netherlands Indies Compared by Ewout Frankema in 2013. o Naming Colonialism: History and Collective Memory in the Congo, 1870-1960 by Osumaka Likaka in 2009. o The Democratic Republic of Congo: Between Hope and Despair by Michael Deibert in 2013. o Civil Wars in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1960-2010 by Emizet Kisangani in 2012. o Chief of Station, Congo: Fighting the Cold War in a Hot Zone by Ex-CIA Lawrence Devlin in 2008. o In the Footsteps of Mr. Kurtz: Living on the Brink of Disaster in Mobutu's Congo by Michela Wrong in 2009. Grouchio fucked around with this message at 22:31 on Nov 16, 2020 |
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2020 22:24
|
|
|
David van Reybrouck's Congo should probably be added as default intro reading - Its pretty lengthy but is extremely approachable and tells the rough narrative from colonization to the fall of Mobuto by focusing on the lives of individual "ordinary" Congolese people he interviews with some travelogue elements of his own time in the country.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2020 22:42
|
|
|
Negotiating Public Services in the Congo: State, Society and Governance was recently recommended to me as well. In other news: uhhhhhhhh quote:Ethiopia: WHO director-general works as TPLF diplomat
|
|
#
?
Nov 17, 2020 21:00
|
|
|
quote:The Oromo is the largest ethnic tribe in Ethiopia, representing around 34.9% of the country’s population of 114.9 million, while the Tigray account for only 7.3%. [/url] Ethnicity, not tribe, and Abiy is only half oromo and was raised by his Amhara mother. quote:
https://news.yahoo.com/escape-massacre-ethiopians-recall-tigray-092740037.html Abiy is promising the last push to end the conflict and condemn the TPLF to the history pages. If his forces capture Mekelle, the TPLF will retreat to the mountains. Insurgency will likely ensue. On a side note, Amharas and Abiy are already disagreeing on who should rule areas in Tigray that are claimed by Amharas. Some Amhara nationalists are afraid Abiy might turn on them once he is done with the TPLF. PawParole fucked around with this message at 07:08 on Nov 18, 2020 |
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2020 06:21
|
|
|
PawParole posted:Abiy is promising the last push to end the conflict and condemn the TPLF to the history pages. If his forces capture Mekelle, the TPLF will retreat to the mountains. Insurgency will likely ensue. If the Ethiopian army wins a quick and decisive victory in the cities without committing large-scale atrocities, I would guess it more likely that TPFL leaders will flee to the USA and run some sort of theoretical opposition there like Gülen or Haftar. Also Amhara are probably the most pro-Abiy of any ethnic group in Ethiopia, except perhaps Somalis. Also what is even the goal of an "Amhara nationalist"? The current Ethiopia is basically already the dream for Amhara nationalists as they have, by far, the most cultural influence over the country. E: One thing I noticed while going around Tigray earlier this year, is that in all the cafes and bars, they were playing Tigrayan music videos or whatever -- and ALL of them were huge on guns, military equipment, etc. Chicks in skimpy uniforms dancing, big artillery pieces firing, guys acting like commandos in the bush, etc. There were also dozens of military checkpoints around Tigray, whereas the rest of the country had basically none.
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2020 09:57
|
|
|
PawParole posted:Ethnicity, not tribe, and Abiy is only half oromo and was raised by his Amhara mother. When I was there I heard from other Ethiopians that Amharas and Tigrayans were basically the same people, only their language is different. Considering how closely intertwined culture and language are, I was skeptical. But then I've never been to Tigray, just Amhara and regions south. Does anyone know firsthand if there's any grain of truth to that idea?
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2020 11:02
|
|
|
Fuschia tude posted:When I was there I heard from other Ethiopians that Amharas and Tigrayans were basically the same people, only their language is different. Considering how closely intertwined culture and language are, I was skeptical. But then I've never been to Tigray, just Amhara and regions south. Does anyone know firsthand if there's any grain of truth to that idea? Well, they are both predominantly Ethiopian Orthodox and both groups were Ge'ez like 1000 years (or whatever) ago, but that's like saying Italians and Spanish are the same people because they're both outshoots of Rome. I'm not sure if the languages are as close as Italian and Spanish either, it might be more like Portuguese and Romanian, or maybe even more different.
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2020 11:06
|
|
|
I think it's more like an Iran thing, where the idea of yourself as an ethnic Iranian doesn't really have as much to do with the language you speak but because your ethnic group have been part of the same political idea for so long.
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2020 14:01
|
|
|
quote:Government forces seized the towns of Shire and Axum after a three-day deadline given by Prime Minister Abiy to Tigray's forces to surrender expired on Tuesday. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-54984056 Pretty significant losses
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2020 16:24
|
|
|
so is there any motivation for rebellion against the central government in any area besides the north? if everyone besides the tigray simply stand by and let the TPLF fall and get suppressed afterwards, then the central government is going to become a hegemon over the already tentative federative sharing of power that ethiopia has. however is abiy has to deal with more rebellious provinces besides the north, they're not going to be able to suppress everyone. Zedhe Khoja posted:I think it's more like an Iran thing, where the idea of yourself as an ethnic Iranian doesn't really have as much to do with the language you speak but because your ethnic group have been part of the same political idea for so long. yeah well, Iran has been a federative state for centuries and hasnt fallen apart because Tehran hasnt actually tried to impose its will on the will provinces with violence. Ethiopia has been an imperial state, and has imposed its dominance through violence multiple times. its a different set-up
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2020 17:45
|
|
|
Saladman posted:Also Amhara are probably the most pro-Abiy of any ethnic group in Ethiopia, except perhaps Somalis. What's the basis of his support among Somalis? I would have expected they'd be deeply suspicious of his stance on centralizing power in the Federal government.
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2020 20:07
|
|
|
Squalid posted:What's the basis of his support among Somalis? I would have expected they'd be deeply suspicious of his stance on centralizing power in the Federal government. It's not like the decentralizing aspects of the government actually helps or applies to them. Ogaden just being treated like a normal party of the country would be a huge improvement over the fake autonomy they have now.
|
|
#
?
Nov 19, 2020 05:41
|
|
|
Saladman posted:, except perhaps Somalis. don’t confuse patience with being pro. He’s a bastard like all the leaders of Ethiopia, but most people in Western Somalia are willing to wait for the referendum next year. Squalid posted:What's the basis of his support among Somalis? I would have expected they'd be deeply suspicious of his stance on centralizing power in the Federal government. Dudes talking nonsense. He’s confusing the statements of the powerless regional president ( who’s a puppet put in by Abiy) with the feelings of the people. PawParole fucked around with this message at 07:02 on Nov 19, 2020 |
|
#
?
Nov 19, 2020 06:59
|
|
|
kustomkarkommando posted:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-54984056 If TPLF ditched it without a big fight, that means they assumed it had little strategic value to them. Tigray still has a lot of weapons and men left, if they wanted to keep Axum its a no brainer they would have fought.
|
|
#
?
Nov 19, 2020 07:07
|
|
|
Squalid posted:What's the basis of his support among Somalis? I would have expected they'd be deeply suspicious of his stance on centralizing power in the Federal government. Well, let's put it this way: all young urban people in the USA were celebrating in the streets when Biden won. Does that mean they LOVE Biden? Not really, it means they loving hated Trump. So I guess "support" is rather be "much less hate towards Abiy than the previous regime". The military has a much softer presence in eastern Ethiopia now, and there are a lot more personal freedoms, you can wave a Somali flag without being thrown under someone's boot, etc. If you go around Ethiopia people make their support pro or con Abiy pretty clear from the get-go, although obviously I only spoke to English-speaking Ethiopians (which is a surprisingly large section of the population, at least anywhere near a major road/population center). I wasn't doing any survey of people's feelings towards Abiy either, but people in Tigray were quick to offer that they thought he was a bloodsucking vampire who was out to murder Tigrayans, and this was back in January. I also heard a couple pretty wild conspiracy theories from a guy in Mekelle that I don't remember anymore. Actually that's not quite right, we talked to a couple Arabic-speaking Ethiopians too, but both of them were imams, the average Muslim-Ethiopian didn't seem to speak any of Arabic. We tried quite a few times too when someone didn't speak English, as we thought "hey, Amharic/Tigrayan are semitic languages and even share a few base words, and we're close to the Arabic world, and some of these areas are predominantly Muslim," but it didn't turn out to be the case at all. Saladman fucked around with this message at 07:45 on Nov 19, 2020 |
|
#
?
Nov 19, 2020 07:38
|
|
|
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/ethiopia-both-warring-sides-claim-military-gains-as-fighting-rag Ethiopia: Both sides claim military gains as fighting rages We’re inflicting heavy defeats on all fronts against the forces that came to attack us,” Tigrayan leader Debretsion Gebremichael said in a statement, referring to federal forces. “I call upon all the Tigrayan people to go out en masse to drive out the invaders.” However, army chief Berhanu Jula said in a statement of his own that Ethiopia’s military was “winning on all fronts” and TPLF troops were “in a state of desperation”. “The TPLF’s plan to drag Ethiopia into civil war and tear it apart has failed. It is currently in a desperate mode as it is surrounded,” Berhanu said. the government later claimed to be marching on the regional capital Mekelle and to hold the town of Mehoni, 125km (78 miles) to the south. It also accused the TPLF of destroying four bridges leading into Mekelle in an attempt to hold back federal troops. But diplomats say it is far from clear if federal forces will be able to secure a quick victory. The TPLF has considerable military assets and an estimated 250,000 troops fighting on mountainous terrain they know well. Ethiopia’s military is estimated at 150,000 troops, a figure that does not include special forces and militias. Saladman posted:
it's more spoken in Eritrea. It's a liturgical language to most Somali people.
|
|
#
?
Nov 19, 2020 14:20
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/addisstandard/status/1329715484963573761?s=19
|
|
#
?
Nov 20, 2020 10:58
|
|
|
Word going around that the government has revoked the work permit of William Davison, who's at the international crisis group now as a senior analyst, once again. He got deported back in 2018 shortly before Abiy became PM and was let back in during the reforms process
|
|
#
?
Nov 20, 2020 15:58
|
|
|
This is a "we don't need no intervention here" move from EBR, right?
|
|
#
?
Nov 20, 2020 16:09
|
|
|
PawParole posted:https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/ethiopia-both-warring-sides-claim-military-gains-as-fighting-rag 150,000 is a really small military for a country of over 100 million people. I know that militias are doing some of the fighting, but even so, why so few personnel, even if a lot of Tigray soldiers defected?
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2020 03:33
|
|
|
falz made a video about the nigeria protests in like three weeks. it's good https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ieglAgBsbc
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2020 03:39
|
|
|
Vivian Darkbloom posted:150,000 is a really small military for a country of over 100 million people. I know that militias are doing some of the fighting, but even so, why so few personnel, even if a lot of Tigray soldiers defected? given that it’s a civil war, you have to add the two armies together.
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2020 04:35
|
|
|
Vivian Darkbloom posted:150,000 is a really small military for a country of over 100 million people. I know that militias are doing some of the fighting, but even so, why so few personnel, even if a lot of Tigray soldiers defected? Armies are expensive? 150k is large by African standards*, bigger than Nigeria's and about the same size I think as DRC's (though they are notoriously ill equipped). Its probably one of the best equipped and trained in the region so it's really a balancing act of whether you want much larger personnel numbers or a higher degree of professionalism. Ethiopia can definitely mobilise more people if they need to, and did during the Eritrean war, but there's not much point in keeping them all in a standing force/on the payroll. There's also a lot of discrete regional security forces run by the various regions that technically aren't part of the army but are being drafted in to help with the fighting (and have been the ones quelling protests), the Tigrayan number is a combination of their trained regional forces + militias but we know that Amhara's regional forces and the Liyu special police from the Somali region are been deployed in support of the army. The size of all these are a bit unknown tbh but are significant. *Excluding North Africa - can't beat the Egyptians kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Nov 21, 2020 |
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2020 16:09
|
|
|
kustomkarkommando posted:Armies are expensive? 150k is large by African standards*, bigger than Nigeria's and about the same size I think as DRC's (though they are notoriously ill equipped). Its probably one of the best equipped and trained in the region so it's really a balancing act of whether you want much larger personnel numbers or a higher degree of professionalism. Ethiopia can definitely mobilise more people if they need to, and did during the Eritrean war, but there's not much point in keeping them all in a standing force/on the payroll. Right, but the Liyu of the Somali region aren’t at the front, that’s fake news. https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickH...828673%3Fs%3D20 Abiy has blinked. After facing huge causality in the town of Shire, with over thousand dead, Abiy has accepted mediation. While he was saying the war will end in days, experts said , " the war has just started" PawParole fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Nov 21, 2020 |
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2020 21:28
|
|
|
PawParole posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickH...828673%3Fs%3D20 Where are you seeing that reliably? The Tweet you linked is just about Mekelle being an industrial center. I've also even seen reports that the ENDF is as far as Adigrat, which if true would mean the Tigrayans are screwed as far as conventional warfare goes, since they could easily steamroll to Mekelle from there as the terrain is much flatter. There's a huge mountain pass just west of Adigrat but very little in the way of natural obstacles from there on south). All the reports are very dubious, on both sides. I see similar tweets about "live" reporting from TPLF in Adigrat as well which sounds more reasonable right now, as the ENDF taking Adigrat would be impossible unless they came from Eritrea, since they're nowhere near that close coming east from Axum. https://ethiopia.liveuamap.com/en/2020/22-november-ethiopia-n-forces-have-taken-town-of-idaga-hamus I'm kind of surprised more reliable reports aren't coming out of Tigray; there must be more than a few people there with decent satellite phones.
|
|
#
?
Nov 22, 2020 18:02
|
|
|
Yeah who actually controls what seems to be still extremely up in the air as its being pieced together from competing Ethiopian state media and Tigrai Mass Media Agency reporting - Axum has been captured/not captured/captured again a couple of times if you believe everything on twitter. The idea i've seen bounced around that the ENDF are making a hasty bee-line to Mekelle from Western Tigray to try to surround it as soon as possible, based on the extremely thin line of advance along the road to Adigrat which in itself assume no advances southward from Eritrea, seemed to be somewhat confirmed from a UN document the Observer/Guardian have said they've laid eyes onThe Observer posted:Ethiopian national forces are meeting heavy resistance and face a protracted “war of attrition” in the northern region of Tigray, a confidential United Nations assessment reveals. I think that may explain some of the conflicting reports of control but the fact of fighting around Adwa and Adigrat seems confirmed, with Tigrayan media claiming victory in repelling the advance and state media claiming they are now preparing to encircle (and apparently siege) Mekelle. Also re: the delegation Ramaphosa apparently got Abiy to agree, according to the government this is seems to be more to assuage AU concerns rather than any kind of interparty meditation: https://twitter.com/PMEthiopia/status/1330005835087564802
|
|
#
?
Nov 22, 2020 19:01
|
|
|
I'm reading this article and it talks about how Jacob Zuma was essentially South Africa's Donald Trump. Is that accurate? Not sure if I heard that before.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2020 06:36
|
|
|
I haven't seen the comparison made but I get it
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2020 07:49
|
|
|
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-idUSKBN2840IO Modern mechanized division includes about 10-15 thousand soldiers. I highly doubt this claim by the TPLF. It is too much of a loss even for wars among big armies using heavy artillery, air bombings, etc. What I do believe in is that there is troops rotation every two weeks a so in a war. Soldiers can't simply be fighting day and night for long period of time. That's why in any war there is a pause after 2-3 weeks of heavy fighting. Both sides are taking a breather at the moment since the confrontation is on its third week.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2020 12:51
|
|
|
Ethiopian military releasing footage showing them in control of Axum -- or, well, its airport anyway -- https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1332285376501866496 Doesn't look like there was that much damage to the airport itself, just a small part of the runway was torn up to prevent landings, and small stones were thrown everywhere on the runway to prevent landings. The glass in the airport is almost entirely (possibly even entirely) intact, so there could not have been much major fighting there. ENDF today also says they're in control of both Wukro (last major city north of Mekele) and in the last few minutes, even Mekele itself. Hard to validate anything though. If true, that was an incredibly quick collapse of the TPLF.
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2020 18:13
|
|
|
Abiy throwing out an official statement backing up the military announcement they captured the city: https://twitter.com/AbiyAhmedAli/status/1332730958999588864?s=19 Seems crazy that the TPLF would melt so quickly with what appears to be zero urban fighting considering they do have a good deal of popular support. Could be tactical I guess?
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2020 18:37
|
|
|
kustomkarkommando posted:Abiy throwing out an official statement backing up the military announcement they captured the city: Well, if true, thank God to be honest. I can almost guarantee that a brutal urban war with the ENDF will, 100%, be worse for most Tigrayan people than the apparent situation where the TPLF completely collapsed. Whatever puppet Abiy installs, he's not going to start killing civilians with a reign of terror or whatever. If the TPLF collapsed this fast in face of the ENDF, I can't really see them having a protracted guerrilla warfare phase either. Or anyway, for the sake of Tigray I hope I am right. In any case, it's not Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Tigrayans aren't going to get ethnically cleansed from their own lands. Maybe the small border territories that they captured and added to their state after 1991 get added back to Amhara, but even if that happens I wouldn't think that would lead to much population displacement, especially if the current situation was so short and without too much bad blood, except around Humera where it looks more and more likely that the massacre was committed by Tigrayans. https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1ukq3h-fUshA0a0ZDcSI22WHbfC6PnKtX&ll=13.674079168941013%2C38.47308138362329&z=9 That's the best map of the ongoing conflict that I can find. The LiveUAmap for Ethiopia is terrible.
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2020 19:28
|
|
|
Interesting replies to this https://mobile.twitter.com/Fromagehomme/status/1332800688942964746
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2020 23:50
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 07:52 |
|
|
That tweet posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/Fromagehomme/status/1332800688942964746 Eritrea (or well, Afwerki) hates the TPLF perhaps even more than Abiy does. The Sudanese border is flat and easily controlled by the ENDF, not to mention that that region is not even historically Tigrayan and has only been in Tigray since 1991. The other thing worth mentioning is that although the TPLF waged a successful guerrilla war... this was 27 years ago, so it's not like Afghanistan where the guerrillas had continuous fighting experience from like 1979-2020. I could be wrong, but people are trying to draw a lot of parallels that don't really hold up to scrutiny. I mean, consider Iraq or Libya, neither of which are particularly good analogies, but in Iraq it took a couple years for the insurgencies there to organize, and likewise Libya was relatively stable from 2012-2014. The TPLF just isn't trained or set up to suddenly disappear into the bush and start attacking ENDF outposts. Saladman fucked around with this message at 11:00 on Nov 29, 2020 |
|
#
?
Nov 29, 2020 10:58
|
|