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I think a pretty significant play is being made to solidify female representation in the party, and that is coming through with female representation on the cabinet. So far we're seeing an approximately 50-50 split, including with the confirmation today that the secretary of energy pick will be Jennifer Granholm. If we can think back to 2016 without crying and throwing up on ourselves, which for me takes some amount of effort, we might recall that that was a Hillary Clinton campaign promise.
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Dec 16, 2020 00:00
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i say swears online posted:it's not them, it's the voters. hill republicans by and large despise him but more importantly are terrified that he sics the hungry jackals on them I agree with you that they're doing this to appease the base rather than because they think they'll win, but it doesn't make me feel any better that a majority of the Republican delegation will happily endorse a coup for virtue signaling purposes.
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Dec 16, 2020 00:24
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DTurtle posted:Numbers? We want numbers! https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1338946445693517825?s=19 I think this is all going to come down to urban fervor versus suburban reversion. VikingofRock fucked around with this message at 00:49 on Dec 16, 2020 |
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Dec 16, 2020 00:35
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1338893959280676865 What are the long term trends here? There has to be some long-term limit at how much this effect can grow (within the bounds of realisim, not theoretical extremes). I'm curious if anyone has seen an analysis of this.
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Dec 16, 2020 00:53
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Suburban Reversion is my band name
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Dec 16, 2020 00:55
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pthighs posted:What are the long term trends here? There has to be some long-term limit at how much this effect can grow (within the bounds of realisim, not theoretical extremes). I'm curious if anyone has seen an analysis of this. Theoretically there should come a point when the EC starts to become friendlier to Dems than it is now. The problem now is that the midwest is turning red faster than the sun belt is turning blue, so you'll see MI, WI, and PA become more reliably R before you'll see GA, AZ, and TX become reliably D. It's not inconceivable that 2024 is closer than 2020, and the R candidate gets back AZ and GA and one or more of the midwest states
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Dec 16, 2020 02:06
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goethe.cx posted:Theoretically there should come a point when the EC starts to become friendlier to Dems than it is now. The problem now is that the midwest is turning red faster than the sun belt is turning blue, so you'll see MI, WI, and PA become more reliably R before you'll see GA, AZ, and TX become reliably D. It's not inconceivable that 2024 is closer than 2020, and the R candidate gets back AZ and GA and one or more of the midwest states Is that true though? Missouri and Iowa are the midwestern states that have actually flipped, but MI, WI, and PA seem to have large and diverse enough metro areas to balance out the chudness in their respective states. All three might remain swing states for the near future, but I'm not sure about any of those three in particular becoming reliably red.
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Dec 16, 2020 02:26
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I think that might be part of the logic in trying to build up Midwest representation in DC. I think that might've been part of the rationale for the department of energy pick. I think they're going to try to appease the blue wall for a little while.
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Dec 16, 2020 02:27
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Appeasing the blue wall enough so that many of them become dedicated Dem voters on job development/infrastructure would be nice.
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Dec 16, 2020 02:30
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whydirt posted:Is that true though? Missouri and Iowa are the midwestern states that have actually flipped, but MI, WI, and PA seem to have large and diverse enough metro areas to balance out the chudness in their respective states. All three might remain swing states for the near future, but I'm not sure about any of those three in particular becoming reliably red. Ohio has turned reliably red it seems, but I guess that could change fast. It did go for Obama twice. We’ll have to see what it does post-Trump. We pretty much need to see what the entire Midwest does post-Trump. He was such an atypical candidate, it’s hard to really see if these are trends or not.
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Dec 16, 2020 02:30
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DTurtle posted:Numbers? We want numbers! In person!? Given that the GOP voted so heavily in person, that's a good sign right? Or did they all wait until election day to do it?
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Dec 16, 2020 02:32
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Anyway, let's look at some of those gender dynamics for the cabinet briefly. There are 23 positions in the cabinet, including the vice president and 15 heads of executive departments. Currently, Donald Trump has four. One of them is Elaine Chao, Mitch McConnell's wife in department of transportation, Jovita Carranza as administrator of the SBA, Betsy DeVos in education, and Gina Haspel in the CIA. so, 4/23, or 17%. Biden has Kamala Harris, and announced Jennifer Granholm, Janet Yellen, Neera Tanden, Avril Haines, Marcia fudge, and Katherine Tai. He also brought back the economic advisers chair, which is going to be Cecelia Rouse. 8/24 (+1 due to 24 in 2020), which is 33%. An additional eight have not been announced, which is 33%. Of the eight men who have been announced, two are Hispanic, one is African-American, and one is LGBT. That leaves Dennis McDonough in veterans affairs and Tom Vilsack in agriculture has the two straight white guys. Anyway, they seem to be very strategic about the order that people are being announced in and how they fill out that picture. It will be really interesting to see if the remaining appointments remain largely gender balanced. I didn't include the United Nations Linda Thomas Greenfield, but that would also change the math slightly.
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Dec 16, 2020 02:40
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Pick posted:Anyway, they seem to be very strategic about the order that people are being announced in and how they fill out that picture. It will be really interesting to see if the remaining appointments remain largely gender balanced. I didn't include the United Nations Linda Thomas Greenfield, but that would also change the math slightly. Yeah, I noticed this too and some of the general ways that a lot coming from their camp has a measured quality. For all of Biden's "off the cuff" personal style, he's clearly got some numbers guys behind the scenes planning/gaming things out.
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Dec 16, 2020 03:56
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I most certainly hope that at the very least: o Biden and Harris don't fall into the same pitfalls Obama fell in trying to appease the GOP congressmen who despised everything he stood for. o The threats of sedition, terrorism and secession from Qanon and Chuds are taken seriously and dealt with case by case as much as possible. o Biden doesn't coward out of forgiving 50k in student debt, or trying to legalize weed/medicare public option/other highly popular centre-left stuff. o The GOP leadership becomes as much an enemy of Trump as an enemy of Biden, and kick him out of the party. o That Trump's twitter remains blocked after office and he spends years under prosecution/ailing health from steroids in NY. That shouldn't be too unrealistic should it?
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Dec 16, 2020 04:14
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I think there's a possibility Susan Rice was chosen for domestic security to go hardass on the right-wing terrorist groups and similar.
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Dec 16, 2020 04:25
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Grouchio posted:I most certainly hope that at the very least: Just a reminded but Biden's plan/what he campaigned on was 10,000$ not 50,000$. 50,000$ is what Schumer suggested. And IIRC the money targets different things, devils in the details etc. I think Biden is probably under no illusions about the GOP after the shitshow they provided in refusing to acknowledge he won the election, some might be confiding in him that they just need more time to get their feelings and order but I think the trumpist outrage isn't going to dissipate after inauguration day and Republicans will continue to double down on obstruction because they literally have no other tool left to use on the national stage. However the fact is that most of Biden's appointment if they come for a vote will get comfortable yes votes from Republicans, Merrick Garland would've passed overwhelmingly if he came down for a vote and so on. It's legislation where things get tricky but its a lot easier to peel off moderate senate Republicans if Turtle isn't majority leader. Additionally I don't think sedition/terrorism/secession charges are necessarily the right fit, or are even in Biden's wheel house to push for. What's appropriate is for Biden to pick people to head the DOJ and FBI who are interested in tackling the threats posed by white supremacy and deal with them according to the law (which entails watching, tracking their movements, compiling information and other things they haven't done in 4 years). When they break the law and do things that meet the standard of terrorism, of course, get out of the way and let the FBI and federal prosecutors throw the book at them, but this isn't something Biden has to particularly push for super hard y'know.
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Dec 16, 2020 04:25
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Biden did seem personally unusually angry during his talk on the 14th with respect to the challenges put to the Electoral College proceedings. https://twitter.com/Transition46/status/1338642358334857217?s=20
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Dec 16, 2020 04:26
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Grouchio posted:I most certainly hope that at the very least: i don't know how this will play out in reality but i do believe that biden is stuck in the chris matthews mindset of waxing poetic about reagan and tip o'neill, but while not a strong progressive, kamala is absolutely a partisan. that's just an impression and not much analysis involved
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Dec 16, 2020 04:31
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-Blackadder- posted:Yeah, I noticed this too and some of the general ways that a lot coming from their camp has a measured quality. For all of Biden's "off the cuff" personal style, he's clearly got some numbers guys behind the scenes planning/gaming things out. It's incredibly calculated. I actually think this is an area where Biden is very strategic. I think he probably told his folks to work out exactly what order to announce whom*. One of my personal favorite things about Biden is something other people hate about him--I think he's a salesman. However, I think what the Democrats have needed for a while is a loving salesman. To sell the administration and what it stands for, or at least not sell them badly. *I don't think it's a coincidence that Austin is the only male Black person announced so far. I think it's timed so that people come to terms with it under the logic that it would be bad optics to reject the only male Black person announced for the Cabinet. Then another may be announced, but it'll be after people get over their hardline mental stance on Austin. If people have already told themselves "Well, maybe I'll have to say yes" then they're far more primed to say yes. Speaking of Austin, and speaking of Austin speaking (  ), here's another thing to watch for I find VERY interesting: who in what roles is comfortable with/known for operating well in the public eye. Buttigieg, Becerra, and Granholm--Transportation, Health and Human Services, and Energy--are clearly very comfortable. Austin clearly hates it and is not comfortable at all. However, this, from Politico, I think might genuinely be it:quote:It was unclear Monday night what tipped the scales for General Austin. People close to the transition noted that, during the Obama presidency, Mr. Biden was unhappy with the high profile of the Pentagon, with generals like David H. Petraeus gaining near rock-star status, and the belief that the Pentagon rolled President Barack Obama into increasing troop numbers in Afghanistan. Listen to this: https://twitter.com/Transition46/status/1337149746700496906?s=20 Versus: https://twitter.com/XavierBecerra/status/1336470441393672192?s=20
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Dec 16, 2020 04:36
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One thing to consider though is that Biden was VP under Obama and had plenty of time to already try to be a salesman to McConnell who already point blank said he didn't care about the merits of X or Y legislation. So odds are this aspect probably only matters *if* Dems do retake the Senate because then he can probably pick off individual senators up for election in 2022 to support his policies. Basically, being a good salesman means nothing against McConnell, but might mean a lot if Schumer is Majority Leader.
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Dec 16, 2020 04:49
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I wasn't talking about being a salesman to McConnell, sorry I was on another track. Biden and McConnell know each other just fine and Biden knows he's not an ally. He might want to use some bipartian language for sales/optics reasons but he loving knows McConnell and how he works. (Hell, McConnell used his going-away speech for Biden from the Senate to needle Biden about the "Diamond Joe" thing which Biden apparently wasn't fond of.) I've watched a lot of historic C-SPAN, and Biden has a lot of warm moments even with people like Graham, Boehner, and Grassley and etc, but honestly he does not have that vibe with McConnell the same way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KW7Ej31cCzU Vs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bLv-YlVqjA&t=314s (opens with Grassley, and iirc Graham's in this one also--the full video's much longer.) e: Oop, here's Graham: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vqh9FC0hy0c&t=27s Pick fucked around with this message at 04:59 on Dec 16, 2020 |
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Dec 16, 2020 04:53
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When he was doing book junkets, Obama said that he thought it was funny seeing stories about how McConnell and Biden were friends. Paraphrased, he said “they're not friends. They've known each other a long time.” This is all gossip anyway but what you hear about Mitch is that he is extraordinarily partisan at all times and doesn’t have many close relationships. Lindsay Graham is a little worm but his colleagues like him because he's a nice guy to them. A lot of these guys, Biden among them, are outstanding retail politicians, that's how they rose to and remain at the highest levels of government. They're warm, charismatic people who people instantly trust in, in short: politicians. zoux fucked around with this message at 05:15 on Dec 16, 2020 |
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Dec 16, 2020 05:12
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zoux posted:When he was doing book junkets, Obama said that he thought it was funny seeing stories about how McConnell and Biden were friends. Paraphrased, he said “they're not friends. They've known each other a long time.” This is all gossip anyway but what you hear about Mitch is that he is extraordinarily partisan at all times and doesn’t have many close relationships. Graham is not popular among other Republican politicians.
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Dec 16, 2020 07:38
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Discendo Vox posted:Graham is not popular among other Republican politicians. Though he does like Biden and has repeatedly (although more prior to 2016) called him a friend, including the video of him crying in the car about Beau. As Sanders has, also (called him a friend, not been taped crying in a car). This is a personal bit of Pick casual rubbernecking, but if anyone knows folks on the Hill--Trump notwithstanding--who personally dislike Biden, I'd be curious to hear. It's almost eerie how few personal enemies he's made. Giuliani was actually the only one I knew (and lo and behold!)
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Dec 16, 2020 07:42
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that biden has personal friends in both graham and sanders really does say a lot about his charisma
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Dec 16, 2020 07:45
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i say swears online posted:that biden has personal friends in both graham and sanders really does say a lot about his charisma He's honestly a walking, talking copy of the ancient "How to Make Friends and Influence People" book that, despite its machiavellian name, basically boils down to "compliment everyone and don't make unnecessary enemies". And despite its broad title, it's basically a sales book. e: It's so old I think it's public domain? It's some good advice. I don't think Biden has particular charisma, I think he's just very, very good at sticking to good sales approaches. Hell, it's so old that the language is like some sort of weird movie or comic skit, but for example, this is absolutely a real thing:  I admit this puts me way on the outs, but I love a good salesman  .
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Dec 16, 2020 07:46
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Pick posted:Biden did seem personally unusually angry during his talk on the 14th with respect to the challenges put to the Electoral College proceedings. The comments on that are cringe People think Joe Biden is a communist, just what the gently caress
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Dec 16, 2020 08:12
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TulliusCicero posted:The comments on that are cringe Fukkin' Biden's a tankie
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Dec 16, 2020 08:36
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Rust Martialis posted:Fukkin' Biden's a tankie The drooling senile useless meat puppet Biden is a cyborg supercommie sent by the Antipope to destroy Christmas in his ultimate quest to kill God. 
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Dec 16, 2020 08:37
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Eric Cantonese posted:The biggest challenge for Democrats that I don't see ever going away as long as economic trends hold is that Democratic voters are all clustering around the same areas and leaving lots of states with less and less voters who will help overturn local GOP dominance. Liberal kids move to where the jobs are, so you get tons and tons of blue voters moving from the south or the midwest to live in and around places like NYC or Boston or DC. You've seen states like Virginia become more reliably "blue" from the local level on up, but that also has meant other states becoming redder and redder as time goes by (and giving the GOP time to gerrymander districts to keep things that way). I think COVID is going to have some impact on this -- after almost a year of working from home, a whole lot of office workers are making plans to move back closer to their hometowns and families. Many big employers went from 'remote bad' to 'well I guess this okay?' in a few short months, and housing is so much cheaper anywhere else. Anecdotal, but the number of people I know who have moved from Seattle to Texas in the last six months feels like a trend.
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Dec 16, 2020 08:47
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if post-covid working conditions really do retain a lot of working from home jobs, and kids in college stay online, that will absolutely affect results. most likely positively for dems
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Dec 16, 2020 08:51
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Pick posted:The drooling senile useless meat puppet Biden is a cyborg supercommie sent by the Antipope to destroy Christmas in his ultimate quest to kill God. Soon all CSPAM shall study Buttigieg Thought.
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Dec 16, 2020 08:54
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i say swears online posted:if post-covid working conditions really do retain a lot of working from home jobs, and kids in college stay online, that will absolutely affect results. most likely positively for dems Colleges will try and stop remote learning asap. same with schools. It cant be stated enough that remote learning does not work for a majority of people and the effects this year on education have been staggering. Remote working may be here to stay for some companies, the cost savings alone for not having the office space has to be huge and alot of managers like being at home wearing pajamas to do work and not have 30 people bothering them at the door all the time.
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Dec 16, 2020 09:16
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Pick posted:He's honestly a walking, talking copy of the ancient "How to Make Friends and Influence People" book that, despite its machiavellian name, basically boils down to "compliment everyone and don't make unnecessary enemies". And despite its broad title, it's basically a sales book. Which I'm not necessarily disagreeing with. I liked The Young/New Pope. It's usually a lot easier to convince people to ask you to do something than it is to convince them to let you do something. And yes, it's very machiavellian.
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Dec 16, 2020 09:17
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AtraMorS posted:I read that, and I don't see, "Compliment everyone." I see, "Convince them that your idea was their idea all along." Grouchio fucked around with this message at 14:34 on Dec 16, 2020 |
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Dec 16, 2020 14:28
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AtraMorS posted:I read that, and I don't see, "Compliment everyone." I see, "Convince them that your idea was their idea all along." The former is part of how you achieve the latter.
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Dec 16, 2020 16:41
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UCS Hellmaker posted:Colleges will try and stop remote learning asap. same with schools. It cant be stated enough that remote learning does not work for a majority of people and the effects this year on education have been staggering. Remote working may be here to stay for some companies, the cost savings alone for not having the office space has to be huge and alot of managers like being at home wearing pajamas to do work and not have 30 people bothering them at the door all the time. Do you have statistics to back this claim up? A lot of teachers and students I have seen and talked to (including myself) have made remote learning work since April. Maybe college professors might be having a hard time, but most college professors aren't very good instructors anyway, because they are not trained in education. Tangent, but Remote Learning can and does work if you rebuild your curriculum with it in mind. The problem is a lot of the school district and college leadership are lazy and impatient as gently caress, and just tell teachers to "'make it work", with completely unreasonable guidelines by the states that are inflexible, on standards built for in-person learning, by geriatric politicians that haven't been in a classroom since the Beatles were a hot new band. It's "imagine a huge square peg stuffed into a small round hole, forever" I really hope we get actually good education policy with Jill Biden being a former educator. I can dream TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Dec 16, 2020 |
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Dec 16, 2020 17:51
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It's easy for remote learning to fail when administrators and parents are working hand in hand to actively sabotage it because they'll do literally anything including hurt their own children to make sure theyre getting their free daycare in the classroom.
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Dec 16, 2020 18:19
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TulliusCicero posted:Do you have statistics to back this claim up? A lot of teachers and students I have seen and talked to (including myself) have made remote learning work since April. Maybe college professors might be having a hard time, but most college professors aren't very good instructors anyway, because they are not trained in education. Remote learning is another bullet point in the endless lists of reason why college education is too expensive. Room and board is already as much as a typical apartment if not even more. What's the point of paying for large college campuses? Colleges want remote learning but to complement the experience not replace it.
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Dec 16, 2020 18:34
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Sanguinia posted:It's easy for remote learning to fail when administrators and parents are working hand in hand to actively sabotage it because they'll do literally anything including hurt their own children to make sure theyre getting their free daycare in the classroom. Spicy take there!
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Dec 16, 2020 18:34
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