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dex_sda
Oct 11, 2012


It's never been easier to organise in this country than right now.

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Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

A 14 year old was visited by police after sharing info about a women’s protest gathering in his town (shared by 400 other people) on FB. It was heartwarming to read how eloquent he is, how he understood how outrageous the situation was and how out of depth the local police turned out to be with their threats.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Mokotow posted:

A 14 year old was visited by police after sharing info about a women’s protest gathering in his town (shared by 400 other people) on FB. It was heartwarming to read how eloquent he is, how he understood how outrageous the situation was and how out of depth the local police turned out to be with their threats.

It's getting harder and harder to tell news from Belarus and Poland apart.

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Yeah, honestly I didn't even know which country you talk about

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




But in Belarus news, huh! What about them leaked phone conversations? Thats interesting I think, everyone is as puzzled as I am but implications are all over about what could it mean. Some conscientious KGB employee is very low probability because they will reject anyone with consciousness during their vetting procedure, Russian FSB is not known for finesse so also unlikely, which leaves an inside struggle. Very high profile people are apparently in this anti ribbon hit squad and someone wants them known

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Sekenr posted:

But in Belarus news, huh! What about them leaked phone conversations? Thats interesting I think, everyone is as puzzled as I am but implications are all over about what could it mean. Some conscientious KGB employee is very low probability because they will reject anyone with consciousness during their vetting procedure, Russian FSB is not known for finesse so also unlikely, which leaves an inside struggle. Very high profile people are apparently in this anti ribbon hit squad and someone wants them known

The first batch felt fake to me, because the two dudes talked exclusively about how innocent they are. The second batch with Eismont is most likely true. There are photos of a masked woman who looks a lot like her, and the conversation felt more natural. It's insane that there are basically no pro-Lukashenko activists, who aren't just his personal friends or officials, so he have to hire his press secretary and the head of hockey association to clean up Minsk neighbourhoods from anti-Lukashenko symbols.

As to who leaked them, I'm not even going to speculate. Could be anything from actual spies to like someone's babysitter having access to one of the phones and Viber recordings or whatever.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Can you guys link a good article summarizing the tape leak? Can be BY or EN.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Paying people to beat up protesters. It's like despots the world over are losing their grip on the people who are sick of their poo poo.

darthzeta88
May 31, 2013

by Pragmatica

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Paying people to beat up protesters. It's like despots the world over are losing their grip on the people who are sick of their poo poo.



I am pretty sure you all are a bunch of leftists, I hang around extreme right groups and they literally say the same thing. Interesting time in the world right now, seems everybody is tired of the extreme controlling governments.

Anne Frank Funk
Nov 4, 2008

makes u think

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Mokotow posted:

Can you guys link a good article summarizing the tape leak? Can be BY or EN.

I wish i could but the journalist who tried to write a story about this whole thing is now in prison

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Mokotow posted:

Can you guys link a good article summarizing the tape leak? Can be BY or EN.



I'll try to sum it up. This article gives a pretty good recap of what happened to Roman Bondarenko on the night of his death.
https://belarusfeed.com/belarus-roman-bondarenko-death-investigation/

At first, two people close to Lukashenko were identified by independent media as possible participants of that fateful altercation: the head of the Belarusian Ice Hockey Federation Dmitry Baskov, and a Muay Thai world champion Dmitry Shakuta, who's known to be friends with Baskov, and used to teach martial arts to spetsnaz.

Now there are three leaks.

The first several calls are allegedly between Baskov and Shakuta. They took place some time after Roman was hospitalised, but before he died. The two discuss, how they don't understand why Roman is in the hospital, since they didn't beat him up too much, just pushed him to the ground, carried him to the van, and drove him to the police station, while having a chat with him on the way. They also kind of blame the police, say that they were roughing Roman up, and speculate what the police could have done to him to land him in hospital. That raises some red flags in my opinion, since they spend most of the time trying to exonerate themselves and shift guilt to the police. Might still be legit, but that's something that everyone's noticed.

The second batch of leaked calls was allegedly between Baskov and Natalia Eismont, who is Lukashenko's press secretary. They discuss preparations for an earlier 'anti-vandal patrol' that happened some time mid-October. Among other things, they mention that this initiative is sanctioned and aided directly by the police and secret services higher-ups, and Lukashenko is at the very least aware of what they're doing. They also plan to celebrate their successful patrol with cheap wine out of plastic cups. What makes this leak more credible in my mind is that a woman who looks similar to Eismont was, indeed, present at at least one of those patrols.

The third leak is just one call allegedly between Baskov and Shakuta. This one can be dated to some time after Roman's death. Once again, the two say they handed Roman over to the police alive and well, and say that OMON people are trying to pin his death on them. The call is interrupted when Shakuta hangs up to jump on a call with Eismont. Nothing new here, but it might hint at some internal conflicts among Lukashenko's closest allies.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Hey, thanks! I guess the most amazing thing here is someone’s recording all this and cherry-picking what to release.

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8rOZttE4dI

Colin Mockery
Jun 24, 2007
Rawr



edit: wrong thread sorry!

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

So for our latest on Bellingcat we've exposed the FSB's involvement in the attempted assassination of Navalny, including detailed phone records, travel records, and other documents that showed the team, made up of medical and chemical weapons experts, followed him on over 30 trips since he announced he was running for president in 2017. It also shows they were in contact with scientists involved with Russia's formerly secretive nerve agent programme, which was also connected to the Skripal assassination attempt.

Here's Navalny talking about it, the video has English subtitles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Brown Moses posted:

So for our latest on Bellingcat we've exposed the FSB's involvement in the attempted assassination of Navalny, including detailed phone records, travel records, and other documents that showed the team, made up of medical and chemical weapons experts, followed him on over 30 trips since he announced he was running for president in 2017. It also shows they were in contact with scientists involved with Russia's formerly secretive nerve agent programme, which was also connected to the Skripal assassination attempt.

Here's Navalny talking about it, the video has English subtitles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I

Caught this on Twitter this morning. It's interesting the Russian government continues to off their opponents this way when everyone knows it's their way of dealing with political enemies.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Caught this on Twitter this morning. It's interesting the Russian government continues to off their opponents this way when everyone knows it's their way of dealing with political enemies.

At this point it is just leaving calling cards to pretend that they can get rid of anyone anywhere.

(would help if assassinations were succesful so it is less Joker leaving people with rigor mortis smile and more uhh 60s tv series Joker)

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Caught this on Twitter this morning. It's interesting the Russian government continues to off their opponents this way when everyone knows it's their way of dealing with political enemies.

The level of deniability in a poisoning by a military grade nerve agent is very high, if Navalny died on the plane that would be it, the state propaganda apparatus would blame it on a heart attack or diabetes and kill the investigation. If he wasn't then transferred to Germany no Novichok would be found, and if not for the Skripal fuckup previously the Germans possibly wouldn't have known what to look for before it degraded to the point of being undetectable. A whole chain of very lucky events, or gently caress ups on the side of the security services, lead to this that we know about it. It's several levels above the previous Kremlin MO of having some rando Chechens murder people which is messy and has to be investigated as a murder, here they can pretend nothing happened and all the "where's your proofs" style trolling. The fact that they got so cocky to use that stuff on the Skripals on the UK's soil makes me think that they got away with it before and were confident with getting away with it there too.

Great job Brown Moses, thanks for working on exposing the deranged mafia state and its crimes.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Navalny was so incredibly lucky in how everything turned after he became poisoned. If the plane hadn't made an emergency landing he'd be dead now. If doctors at hospital hadn't administered him atropine he'd be dead now (possibly of two poisoning attempts).

For that matter, Skripals were lucky too.

Dawn Sturgess was incredibly unlucky. What are the chances that your dumpster diving boyfriend finds a perfume bottle filled with nerve agent? And then hospital figures that you just injected yourself with some impure drugs because you're an addict.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
The CNN crew came to one of the fed organizers to ask him how he's doing

https://mobile.twitter.com/navalny/status/1338498164828073984

There's something very sad about a guy commiting horrible crimes for the state protecting billionaires living in fancy penthouses and villas, while he himself lives in a dumpy commieblock with the painfully eastern european noxious green painted stairway.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The full Navalny piece from CNN is here

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/12/14/russia-alexey-navalny-bellingcat-investigation-clarissa-ward-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn

Navalny watching himself on CNN covering the investigation about him that's on the pinboard behind him

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1338503605809270785

Erulisse
Feb 12, 2019

A bad poster trying to get better.

Somaen posted:

There's something very sad about a guy commiting horrible crimes for the state protecting billionaires living in fancy penthouses and villas, while he himself lives in a dumpy commieblock with the painfully eastern european noxious green painted stairway.

These people are defending their country and their leader from "rotting pro-western liberal propagandists" that are paid by USA.
It's a religion, not work anymore.

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Well, the new Belarus sanctions package is a joke. The list looks carefully curated to hurt Luka (and Luka-related EU businesses) as little as possible, to the point of no impact whatsoever. Most of them are military related, thus did not trade with any NATO country in the first place, some were under US sanctions already, making this action moot, the only ones who could concievably be hurt are Synesis (face recognition software) and Dana Holdings (land developer)maybe?

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

Sekenr posted:

Well, the new Belarus sanctions package is a joke. The list looks carefully curated to hurt Luka (and Luka-related EU businesses) as little as possible, to the point of no impact whatsoever. Most of them are military related, thus did not trade with any NATO country in the first place, some were under US sanctions already, making this action moot, the only ones who could concievably be hurt are Synesis (face recognition software) and Dana Holdings (land developer)maybe?

Who would you want to see on the list? As I understand the EU has the "hurt the specific oligarchs, not the people" to avoid being seen as destroying people's livehoods for regime change, which is why the package has a bunch of Luka related people and potash unrelated companies. Luka is also making good on his promise to stop some Belarussian state companies using Klaipeda's port, which is going to have some interesting consequences

The Insider, (the Russian independent investigative journal that acquired the call databases and released the info on the FSB agents following Navalny) posted an interview with the former ambassador to Russia McFaul and it has some interesting points that Biden and secretary of state Blinken are very familiar with Eastern Europe and look like they're going to come back as a significant influence, including Belarus:

https://theins.ru/en/other-languages/237836

quote:


Number three: Biden really knows the region – more than any previous president. He's been many times to Ukraine, to Moldova (there I was with him). So it will change the balance of interest and attention from Moscow to the rest of the region.

Number four: the new Administration will follow a strategy of containment of Putin's belligerent behavior abroad and at the same time, when it is in America's interests to do so, I think we will have concrete engagement on issues that Russia and the United States share.
........
The last time Biden was in the government back in 2009, it was a different era in Russia and different president. President Medvedev had a very different worldview. And the ‘reset’ between Obama was with Medvedev – not with Putin. Once Putin came back in 2012, the ‘reset’ was over. He didn't want to cooperate with the United States. That didn't change – he is still in power. I think that the Biden`s team doesn't want to escalate the confrontation. Nobody wants to go to war with Russia. Avoiding a war case scenario is an important part of diplomacy. Sometimes diplomacy is most important with your adversaries not your allies.
.........
– It's difficult for outside powers including even the United States to have influence with respect to human rights when the respective country’s leadership doesn't want to do it. So I think we need to be humble in what outsiders can achieve and realise that at the end of the day things will only change inside Russia if the Russians themselves change things, not outsiders. But there is something that the USA can and should do. First, to speak truthfully about violations of human rights. When I was ambassador, or when I lived in Soviet Union many-many decades ago, that was what human rights activists wanted. They wanted the West not to help them but to speak the truth about those who were hurting them. That's the most important thing to do.

Independent media is important. That's why I`m now talking to you, The Insider. I think Russia has fantastic independent journalists, many of them are living in exile. The United States should help improve an infrastructure of a global independent media.

And when there are gross violations of human rights, the USA should use the Magnitsky Act to continue to sanction people. Some people would argue: sanctions don't work, the wrongful behaviour still continues. But I think you have to do something. And I also can witness that when I was the ambassador to Russia Magnitsky Act had a very big effect on economic elites not wanting to be associated with Russian government for fear that they may be not able to go for vacation in Italy and France, that they may not be able to go to the Carribean because sanctions will be chasing them around the world. So I think it's important to continue to use that mechanism as well.
....

But not just Ukraine. In Georgia, Armenia, Belarus too. There are some very important things happening right now in Uzbekistan. And I think just showing up will be a good signal both to those governments and societies, but also to Putin that we are not giving up this part of the world.


– Svetlana Tikhanovskaya said she was ready to come to Biden's inauguration. Do you think she will be a welcome guest? And how the USA can help the Belarusian people in this situation, which may turn into a humanitarian catastrophe?
– I think Biden should meet with her. And I believe the United States and Europe should be more engaged in trying to resolve the stand-off in Belarus because the situation there is as dire as you said. It would be difficult but not impossible to try to help find a way forward in Belarus.


– But Tikhanovskaya and other Belorussian opposition leaders say that they hear many words of support from the West which do not turn into concrete deeds …
– I agree with that, tragically. I think there needs to be more pressure including sanctions. There are lots of companies that will not do well inside Belarus with new sanctions. But one also needs diplomatic engagement – to try to involve Europe, and maybe even Russia to resolve a transition forward that allows a new government to form without Lukashenko. There is no going back. Lukashenko will never rule with any legitimacy inside Belarus. The sooner they can get on with that the better. I think the negative possibility of worser outcomes should also be remembered. It still may go for a longer period of time. People can suffer, maybe people get killed. We know from experience of other countries that it sometimes happens. So it is better to be engage now than wait for more negative consequences later.


Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




I'd rather see sanctions that make an impact. This list was straight up disappointing, Even Dana Holdings, there are 3 subsidiaries - Dana Astra, Dana Blue Sky and Dubai Waterfronts. The EU document only list VAT number of Dana Astra. Knowing previous sanctions that are very precise and very clear this was not a clerical mistake, rather a backdoor for continuing to do business.

But back to your previous question, yeah should have attacked oil and gas, rather than businesses who are like "welp, nothing changed whatsoever"

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




And honestly, people are already destroying their livelihoods by joining strikes. Outright refusal to do business with bloodied arms regime will only stimulate, even cops will get it

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Caught this on Twitter this morning. It's interesting the Russian government continues to off their opponents this way when everyone knows it's their way of dealing with political enemies.

I think we must realize they want you to know. Russia assassinated all the post soviet exiled oligarchs operating in Britain in the 90s. Again. They want you to know they can loving drop you at any time anywhere in the world in plain daylight and the British government (or american govt) won't do poo poo. The reality is that sanctions aren't going to do anything against the assassination program.

Remember Scott Young.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

Sekenr posted:

I'd rather see sanctions that make an impact. This list was straight up disappointing, Even Dana Holdings, there are 3 subsidiaries - Dana Astra, Dana Blue Sky and Dubai Waterfronts. The EU document only list VAT number of Dana Astra. Knowing previous sanctions that are very precise and very clear this was not a clerical mistake, rather a backdoor for continuing to do business.

But back to your previous question, yeah should have attacked oil and gas, rather than businesses who are like "welp, nothing changed whatsoever"

quote:

And honestly, people are already destroying their livelihoods by joining strikes. Outright refusal to do business with bloodied arms regime will only stimulate, even cops will get it

Agreed, I wish our governments were more aggressive and supportive of belarussians :( Good luck in the fight

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Somaen posted:

Agreed, I wish our governments were more aggressive and supportive of belarussians :( Good luck in the fight

Maybe not aggressive but rather more steadfast or something. Coordination council in exile do not say anything outright but there are rumours that original list was much more vast, and that list already went through all the procedures, vetted and approved by EU commission lawyers etc. However literally days before the vote and announcement suddenly started shrinking to the point of one entity being crossed out with a pen on a printout. Which means it happened maybe minutes before official proceedings. The regime has their own lobbyists and people in EU who profit by doing business with Luka.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1340990981328519168

The continuing revelation for my adult life that the real spies and government assassins are absolute morons

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Apparently if you pretend you're working for someone senior enough in Russia even an FSB officer will just spill their guts.

Here's the full audio with English transcript

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwvA49ZXnf8

Here's Navalny's video showing them filming it and trying not to freak out or laugh loud enough for the guy to hear

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibqiet6Bg38

Nitrox
Jul 5, 2002
Holy poo poo, it's insane.

Erulisse
Feb 12, 2019

A bad poster trying to get better.
Soon™:

-Kydryavcev was fired two weeks before Navalny's poisoning
-He hung himself up yesterday due to non-work related depression, left death note saying that he blames Navalny for destabilizing politics in russia

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
I see two spin options:
- it was an actor, the real guy says in an interview with Simonyan he never had this call, and only visited Tomsk as a tourist
- the guy knew it was Navalnyi and epically trolled him with a bunch of fake intel (no, we're not going to address why he knew so much real information)

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
Social Engineering works both ways, folks. That's a masterstroke.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I've had to sit quiet about this for a week, what they pulled off was incredible, Navalny not only maintaining his composure but also badgering him into confessing was quite a feat. We're planning to turn all the Russian spy stuff into a podcast and then work on making it a TV documentary.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Brown Moses posted:

I've had to sit quiet about this for a week, what they pulled off was incredible, Navalny not only maintaining his composure but also badgering him into confessing was quite a feat. We're planning to turn all the Russian spy stuff into a podcast and then work on making it a TV documentary.

Not only did they fail to kill him, but he then social engineers them into spilling their guts on the phone. It really is an over the top achievement.

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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
This is some Ocean's Eleven level social engineering, have you guys already talked about which Hollywood actor will be playing who in the eventual filmatization?

e: also I'm not sure if Navalny is any better a man than Putin, tormenting and publically humiliating (and Bog knows what other consequences will follow) a sick man is eeeeevil!

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 16:59 on Dec 21, 2020

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