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Discendo Vox posted:I am one of those goons. DnD does not currently have the moderation necessary to handle discussion of this subject. It will go very bad, very fast. I don't want to derail too hard, but I'm curious what you mean by this.
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Dec 29, 2020 14:23
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DTurtle posted:https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1343193423889772544 The states vote totals aren't disputed. Standing outside the court house and writing some numbers on a piece of paper doesn't make for a disputed count. That 70% of less than 50% of the voters don't like the outcome is also not a disputed count. The opposite is true, the states have provided undisputed slates of electors, there is no 'alternate' slate for Pence to read. edit: Also, an appeal to "Stalin Logic' is really just the cherry on top of the 'gently caress Democracy' theme. Murgos fucked around with this message at 14:49 on Dec 29, 2020 |
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Dec 29, 2020 14:47
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Murgos posted:The states vote totals aren't disputed. Standing outside the court house and writing some numbers on a piece of paper doesn't make for a disputed count. That 70% of less than 50% of the voters don't like the outcome is also not a disputed count. The opposite is true, the states have provided undisputed slates of electors, there is no 'alternate' slate for Pence to read. Yeah, if that's sufficient to be considered a dispute, then okay - every state Trump "won" is disputed, so he gets zero votes. Checkmate, Ras!
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Dec 29, 2020 15:31
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DTurtle posted:https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1343193423889772544 motherfuckers can't even count numbers smaller than the number of fingers they have: is it six or seven disputed states?
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Dec 29, 2020 15:51
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Blue Footed Booby posted:I don't want to derail too hard, but I'm curious what you mean by this. I don't know what he means, but here would be my take: the discussion would be dominated by people who cannot grasp that just repeating the things they believe - and thus personally find very convincing - are not magic words that will convince everyone else. This happens pretty much anytime messaging comes up. It then usually gets added onto by the argument that because these magic words (which are self-evidently obvious) have not been used by political candidates, magic words that if uttered would unleash the dawn of socialism, then all political candidates must actually be traitors and the only thing to do is replace them with people who will say the magic words. Being able to understand how someone else views the world differently than you, and how to persuade them to change their mind, is not as common a skill as people think it is and many people are convinced they have it who definitely do not.
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Dec 29, 2020 15:53
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evilweasel posted:Polls have shown that nonvoters tend to be more democratic-leaning than voters. There are two problems with this: I agree, however, I think number one is the key. There are plenty of minority communities who culturally align with conservative politics more than liberal politics, however it's a simple calculus: the GOP is racist. Jesse Jackson was pro life and wanted the GOP to court the black vote for two reasons: he felt they were a natural constituency given the cultural politics, and he didn't want Democrats to take the black vote for granted. What is a Democratic voter anyway? They are not necessarily the characture of a liberal and certainly not a leftist. This is something the very online left can't seem to get past. Raenir Salazar posted:I think polling shows that this is true but only in a vague way, like the way M4A polls well until you talk about needing to pay for it with taxes and so on. The nominally left leaning poorer electorate is very shy when it comes to the supposed risks associated with leftist policies. It's shocking to me how many people have internalized the idea that M4A is actually very popular (as it would actually exist) and that most people actually support all of these leftist ideas if you explain the ideas to them very precisely. It is/was true that if you break out the components of the ACA it polls higher than "Obamacare" but I don't even know how true that still is, as the ACA has grown more and more popular over time, and in any case, M4A wherein your taxes are raised and you lose your private insurance is NOT popular; that's just how it is, and if you want M4A to happen you have to persuade people that it's beneficial to their lives. Pick posted:Anyway, I post that because I find it very interesting, because one thing I like about Biden--a lot--that I don't think a lot of people do, at least not here, is that I think Biden is first and foremost a salesman. He sells the product that is the party. Yessir. Politics is about persuasion, and "bend the knee" politics and brow beating condescension is not very persuasive. Andrew Yang nailed when he said that Joe Biden's superpower is make anything seem conventional. Discendo Vox posted:I am one of those goons. DnD does not currently have the moderation necessary to handle discussion of this subject. It will go very bad, very fast. Curious if you can give a quick snapshot of how you think the thread would go down and why?
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Dec 29, 2020 16:18
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evilweasel posted:motherfuckers can't even count numbers smaller than the number of fingers they have: is it six or seven disputed states? They've started counting NM because their state GOP voted a slate of sham electors
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Dec 29, 2020 16:20
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zoux posted:They've started counting NM because their state GOP voted a slate of sham electors between tweet 2 and 3? awfully precise timing 
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Dec 29, 2020 16:31
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They’re uncovering fraud left and right! https://twitter.com/perduesenate/status/1343943989804867585?s=21 Feel like that tells us as much about GA as any poll
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Dec 29, 2020 16:52
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paternity suitor posted:Curious if you can give a quick snapshot of how you think the thread would go down and why? "Propaganda is good actually" "Well I only consume non-propaganda media like NPR"
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Dec 29, 2020 17:52
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i say swears online posted:"Propaganda is good actually" "I get my news from my trusted sources and comrades on Twitter."
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Dec 29, 2020 18:47
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That's pretty much what I figured he meant as well, I guess I'll just leave it at that.zoux posted:https://twitter.com/perduesenate/status/1343943989804867585?s=21 This is the weirdest political realignment. I mean, it's a good thing, but I don't know what to make of it yet. Is this the beginning of a socially conservative fiscally liberal wing? Mittens, Hawley, Rubio and now Perdue?
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Dec 29, 2020 20:02
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No. They want this one check because they saw how useful $1,200 was for Donald Trump. These are also piddly amounts compared to what they seek to cut or prevent spending for, per citizen, in services etc.
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Dec 29, 2020 20:07
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paternity suitor posted:This is the weirdest political realignment. I mean, it's a good thing, but I don't know what to make of it yet. Is this the beginning of a socially conservative fiscally liberal wing? Mittens, Hawley, Rubio and now Perdue? No, it's just expediency. Trump has just shown that he can throw a 2 month temper tantrum in the face of all evidence and his base will still fervently defend his every action. If you are an R and you are not doing thy lord and masters will then the base will hound you with death threats and sabotage.
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Dec 29, 2020 20:10
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paternity suitor posted:This is the weirdest political realignment. I mean, it's a good thing, but I don't know what to make of it yet. Is this the beginning of a socially conservative fiscally liberal wing? Mittens, Hawley, Rubio and now Perdue? Pretty sure it's mostly cynicism. Hawley and Rubio want to run for president in 2024, Perdue's runoff is in a week, and Mitt is a (relative) moderate. I mean doing the right thing for the wrong reason is still better than what the Republicans usually do, but I think they're trying more to be Trump-like than to accomplish anything in particular.
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Dec 29, 2020 20:29
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And also, Perdue and Loeffler can be "for" the $2K checks without any actual cost because Mitch will block it coming to a vote. It's the "I was TOTALLY going to get you this awesome gift but they stopped making them!" *shrugs*
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Dec 29, 2020 20:30
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Discendo Vox posted:I am one of those goons. DnD does not currently have the moderation necessary to handle discussion of this subject. It will go very bad, very fast. Heh. What the "communications goons" were the IKs?
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Dec 29, 2020 20:42
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paternity suitor posted:That's pretty much what I figured he meant as well, I guess I'll just leave it at that. Purdue is on record opposing the stimulus checks in CARES, so what happened was Trump tweeted about the 2k checks, and now both Purdue and Loeffler are supporting 2k checks because they have to pander to Trump voters. Once the election is over, they'll go right back to being massive deficit hawks. I think probably the only R senator who is seriously trying to do the populist conservative thing is Hawley. Trump is doing it by accident because he's trying to gently caress over, well everything, but congressional Republicans who didn't fight hard enough to illegally steal the election for him. Every Republican in the House and Senate supporting the $2k checks is only doing that because they want to be in Trump's good graces rather than some road to Damascus moment on public finance. James Garfield posted:Pretty sure it's mostly cynicism. Hawley and Rubio want to run for president in 2024, Perdue's runoff is in a week, and Mitt is a (relative) moderate. Hawley is a little Eichmann but he's been consistent on this popular conservative stuff, unlike every other GOP senator ever. Whether he sees that as an actual viable path for the party going forward or just as a springboard to his own career advancement, well who knows. zoux fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Dec 29, 2020 |
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Dec 29, 2020 20:52
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evilweasel posted:I don't know what he means, but here would be my take: the discussion would be dominated by people who cannot grasp that just repeating the things they believe - and thus personally find very convincing - are not magic words that will convince everyone else. This happens pretty much anytime messaging comes up. It then usually gets added onto by the argument that because these magic words (which are self-evidently obvious) have not been used by political candidates, magic words that if uttered would unleash the dawn of socialism, then all political candidates must actually be traitors and the only thing to do is replace them with people who will say the magic words. Along with this good point, I also think there's a moral nuance to talking about communications and marketing in politics and culture. Bad, terrible, inhumane ideas can have fantastic marketing, and you can think something is really well designed without also thinking it's a good idea (and vice versa, good ideas with crappy comms). It's a layer of abstraction that we're not great at handling here, IMO. (Reference: I work in executive communications. All of the responsibility with none of the decision-making power, woo!) Grooglon fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Dec 29, 2020 |
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Dec 29, 2020 21:26
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Raenir Salazar posted:I think polling shows that this is true but only in a vague way, like the way M4A polls well until you talk about needing to pay for it with taxes and so on. The nominally left leaning poorer electorate is very shy when it comes to the supposed risks associated with leftist policies. I don't want to make this a big thing because the vast majority of this I agree with but the bolded part is more complicated. There are tons of examples of situations where older folks who aren't the traditional Facebook/Google/Amazon techbor hire go out, get those skills but still never get hired because they aren't the wet behind the ears college grad who can spout out algorithms on a whiteboard from memory (that others in the real world would just look up) or already have years of experience after being said college grad. Those companies are huge about having the proper culture and starting out as a blue collar worker doesn't fit. Neither does being a minority for that matter.
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Dec 29, 2020 21:30
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to the other responses and concerns which is entirely inextricable.
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Its a short hand that I think that retraining to a non-manual labour intensive job is not something that'd widely desirable for those who created an identity around coal/lumber/oil rigging/etc. I'm not even sure if a targeted UBI would really make much headway.
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Dec 29, 2020 23:18
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DTurtle posted:https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1343193423889772544 I mean it seems like a pretty open fascist outlet at this point
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Dec 29, 2020 23:48
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lol @ training people to do jobs that don't exist where they live
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Dec 30, 2020 00:29
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Greg12 posted:lol @ training people to do jobs that don't exist where they live Yeah this. There was an article a while back about the high rates of people on disability in middle of nowhere small towns. What it came down to was that there are a lot of people who were physically unable to do manual labour, who could do office jobs, but there just aren't any office jobs. So they get allowed to go on disability. https://www.denverpost.com/2017/04/02/rural-americans-disability-jobs-disappear/amp/
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Dec 30, 2020 01:29
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Coal is a weird example given how the Republicans use it as basically a culture war issue. The entire coal mining industry employs 50,000 people, about half of whom are coal miners. If the war on coal message is convincing any significant number of people to vote Republican, they aren't coal miners. The broader question is legitimate, and coal mining areas were probably more prosperous several decades ago when coal mining was bigger, but as far as politics are concerned the research on 2016 found that "economic anxiety" predicted support for Clinton. I think it's important to separate the political issue (what to do for people trained to do jobs that don't exist anymore) from the Republican framing (Hollywood liberals are taking coal mining jobs from
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Dec 30, 2020 02:13
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The fact that "leave your dying middle of nowhere resource extraction industry town and live somewhere else," is part and parcel to training people for jobs that don't exist in those places is not some kind of stroke of ivory tower ignorance, its an intended feature. The fact that people would literally rather die than leave their lovely coal town is not noble. When Eisenhower built the interstate highway system it killed thousands of small towns, but guess what those people packed the gently caress up and moved. If you think that the mentality behind telling people "We will retrain you for jobs that aren't here (ergo get the gently caress out of here)," deserves criticism, fine, but I don't think "People should be able to live literally anywhere they want regardless of economic reality and no matter the disproportionate amount of resources and attention their choice demands of society," is all that laudable an ethos either.
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Dec 30, 2020 05:51
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Some time ago we had a discussion in this thread about the Biden admin's coming difficulties with nominations. Not the "Mitch will stop everything" kind, the less sticky widget that comes from nominating a bunch of House members when the Democratic majority in the House is rather thin. The solution was to do the nominations in batches--nominate a batch, get special elections done and get new members seated, nominate the next batch, and so on. That process just got a little easier: Luke Letlow (R, LA-5) just died, so one R seat in the House will also be unfilled pending a special election. This should mean one additional Biden admin nominee can be added to the first batch. LA-5 is solidly Republican (Cook R+15), and Letlow won his jungle primary by 20 points in a runoff against a fellow Republican. I doubt a flip is in the cards for the Dems. Epinephrine fucked around with this message at 16:17 on Dec 30, 2020 |
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Dec 30, 2020 16:15
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Numbers for Georgia: https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1344303001582727172 Black turnout is also higher than during the general election, leading to a greater share of Democratic voters during the early vote so far: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1344299378744446977
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Dec 30, 2020 16:34
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Sanguinia posted:The fact that "leave your dying middle of nowhere resource extraction industry town and live somewhere else," is part and parcel to training people for jobs that don't exist in those places is not some kind of stroke of ivory tower ignorance, its an intended feature. The fact that people would literally rather die than leave their lovely coal town is not noble. When Eisenhower built the interstate highway system it killed thousands of small towns, but guess what those people packed the gently caress up and moved. It's tangential and anecdotal, but I've seen many a person who bitches about their small town dying yet refusing to leave also bitching about (for example) Syrian refugees not "staying in their country and working to fix it" without realizing the intense irony. Also the same kind of person who says things like "why don't the blacks just leave the inner city if it's that bad!?!"
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Dec 30, 2020 16:41
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Sanguinia posted:The fact that "leave your dying middle of nowhere resource extraction industry town and live somewhere else," is part and parcel to training people for jobs that don't exist in those places is not some kind of stroke of ivory tower ignorance, its an intended feature. The fact that people would literally rather die than leave their lovely coal town is not noble. When Eisenhower built the interstate highway system it killed thousands of small towns, but guess what those people packed the gently caress up and moved. I hate to use this cop out term but its complicated. People are attached their towns/homes because they build their identity around it and to a degree there is history in these towns and generations of people who grew up in these small towns. Now sure yes, in a fully functioning society you would pay people to move away from these places or you invest in these places to make them modern. The problem of course is that neither solution is on the table either by the government or its voters. Hillary Clinton basically told these voters, I will invest in your communities and fight the opioid epidemic and because it came from HRC and because part of the caveat is that you have to accept women and minorities also deserve some rights, they reject that premise. They don't want things to change, they want their town to be viable via coal because thats the way its been. Generally speaking, i am sure some towns have adapted. The other part of this is this culture of not trusting any form of government. I can't find it but there was a New York times article about some small town in Washington State that flat out would not spend on anything to improve their town, including paying their librarians more because $12/hour is sacrilegious when I know people who are struggling/government doesn't work so why should i pay for it. We are stuck in a cycle in these places where the culture is both toxic and unwilling to do anything to save themselves, so what can we do to get to them as political people? What policies will they actually go for? And maybe the solution is to say fine, let them bankrupt themselves and then see what happens but it doesn't seem humane or good to let poverty run rampant.
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Dec 30, 2020 17:40
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is black turnout actually higher than the general or is its share greater? if it's the former, wow
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Dec 30, 2020 18:31
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did you know that moving is not free
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Dec 30, 2020 18:34
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Greg12 posted:did you know that moving is not free it's still government will. it can accomplish things! remember when chinese ghost cities were all the rage to mock in 2011? why don't we hear about those any more? one guess
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Dec 30, 2020 18:47
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i say swears online posted:it's still government will. it can accomplish things! remember when chinese ghost cities were all the rage to mock in 2011? why don't we hear about those any more? one guess Well, I mean - my husband was transferred from one part of a company to a bigger part, and as a result he moved 2000 miles away from his family, about ten months before we got married. I met him online, so when I moved to join him, I moved 2000 miles away from my family. (But from a different direction.) It's hard not having immediate family around us, and it was especially hard for him because he has tons of cousins and was used to giant family gatherings - and we both chose to do this, on our timeline, for our own reasons, no governmental involvement. So let's say we summon up the government will to just move people, and we find somebody whose skillset is "something to do with coal in $doomed_town" and we retrain him to "something that can be done in $other_place" and we move him and his household to $other_place. Do we move his parents and grandparents too? What if he buried his first wife in $doomed_town and doesn't want to leave her grave? Do we require him to stay in $other_place for a certain number of years? What if he gets laid off, or fired, or quits? All of these questions have possible answers; none of them mean "oh welp guess better things aren't possible after all"; but they're all things to consider if we're going to propose "just moving people". Sanguinia posted:The fact that "leave your dying middle of nowhere resource extraction industry town and live somewhere else," is part and parcel to training people for jobs that don't exist in those places is not some kind of stroke of ivory tower ignorance, its an intended feature. The fact that people would literally rather die than leave their lovely coal town is not noble. When Eisenhower built the interstate highway system it killed thousands of small towns, but guess what those people packed the gently caress up and moved. Mooseontheloose posted:Now sure yes, in a fully functioning society you would pay people to move away from these places or you invest in these places to make them modern. The problem of course is that neither solution is on the table either by the government or its voters. Hillary Clinton basically told these voters, I will invest in your communities and fight the opioid epidemic and because it came from HRC and because part of the caveat is that you have to accept women and minorities also deserve some rights, they reject that premise. "sure my house is underwater but I can live in a manufactured home right next to the lake!!! I'm not takin' no gov'ment handout!!!!"
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Dec 30, 2020 19:19
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i say swears online posted:is black turnout actually higher than the general or is its share greater? if it's the former, wow It's share of the vote, but it's theoretically possible for overall turnout to rise as well. One of Stacey Abrams's winning GOTV revelations has been convincing people that they don't live in a red state, because she understands that telling someone they live in a red or a blue state affects their likelihood to jump through all the hoops to get their vote cast and counted. It's a lot easier to motivate yourself to do that if you think your vote is actually going to matter, but that's been an uphill battle in Georgia because it's been deep red for decades now. Except two months ago Georgia had the biggest confirmation possible that it's not a red state and that jumping through those hoops to have your vote cast and counted actually does matter and actually can make a difference, so anyone who previously didn't bother voting because they lived in a "red state" might all of a sudden have a newfound motivation to go cast a ballot.
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Dec 30, 2020 19:44
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zonohedron posted:Even if we wanted to just let them starve, if we're going to go "okay if you don't want to get relocated and retrained, suffer!" we also have to make sure they're not, you know, still mining coal, right? The problem isn't "these people live a way I don't like", it's "these people are doing a thing that's not great for our entire planet", you have to somehow, while not retraining, relocating, or resupplying them, prevent them from doing the ecologically catastrophic things, prevent anybody from paying them money to do the things, that sort of thing. I mean, there's K-12 schools in Montana that have fewer people in those thirteen grades than my younger son's kindergarten class contains, because there's people who don't want to live somewhere else. The only time literally everybody did pack up and go was when their town was about to become a lake or the interstate was literally destroying the physical infrastructure of the town, and at this point I'm not convinced that would still work, because I don’t think there’s a danger of wildcat coal miners in West Virginia - the whole reason they’re so mad is because it’s no longer worth it to actually mine coal and so all the mining companies are going bankrupt. The number of actual people employed in coal mining has continued to decline during the Trump administration despite what they’ve tried to do to support it. A super basic clean power plan from the Biden administration and a few more years of renewable tax credits will do a lot to stop the mining. The retraining that was being provided during the Obama administration wasn’t a proactive effort to peel people away from the thriving coal industry, it was to give people in danger of losing their jobs (or who had already lost them) some other way to get a job.
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Dec 30, 2020 19:52
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DTurtle posted:Numbers for Georgia: Georgia was like one of the only states where the polls didn't gently caress up right? These numbers look too good... 
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Dec 30, 2020 20:11
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I think Georgia polling is more within the MoE?
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Dec 30, 2020 20:51
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The numbers look good, but bear the general election pattern of polling error and also bear in mind that pollster's rep is mixed.
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Dec 30, 2020 20:55
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Those numbers, for what it's worth, line up with SurveyUSA's runoffs poll. https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1341405448067575812 SurveyUSA had Biden +2 as the final result in the GA general election, and a history of being a generally good pollster, so make of this what you will.
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Dec 30, 2020 21:01
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