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CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

pmchem posted:

I'm glad you like the Early Retirement Now link. I haven't read much from that blog -- I ran across the mortgage bit while doing mortgage reading -- but I guess I should check out more of it.


pmchem posted:

I don't think this has been answered yet.

In theory, it's very attractive to manage your assets as a whole portfolio. There are interesting arguments to be made in favor of, say, tilting heavy in stocks and away from bonds if you have a mortgage:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/11/02/why-would-anyone-have-a-mortgage-and-a-bond-portfolio/

It is conventional wisdom to take advantage of tax-efficient fund placement when possible (IRAs vs taxable accounts),
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-efficient_fund_placement

However, in reality, it's not so simple. Bonds come in tax-exempt flavors, some popular bond yields are lower than stock index dividends these days, you might sell the house, rebalancing is much more advantageous within an account than across accounts, different accounts may have different investment options available (e.g. your 401k vs. IRA), etc. There's no clean answer to your question, which is probably why nobody answered it yet.

Personally, I track my investments as a whole and make sure the whole picture reflects my desired allocation, but within each investable account I try to make it so that I can benefit from rebalancing if one asset outperforms another (cash is also an asset in this scenario). Not sure if I'd recommend that to someone else, though. Highly individual situation.

ERN is great and has put some thought into the Asset Location question, with interesting results (essentially, there is no clear strictly best decision) - https://www.google.com/amp/s/earlyretirementnow.com/2020/02/05/asset-location-do-bonds-belong-in-retirement-accounts-swr-series-35/amp/

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spwrozek
Sep 4, 2006

Sail when it's windy

I just look at the vanguard target date fund and match that more or less. Those guys are plenty smart.

doingitwrong
Jul 27, 2013

moana posted:

I like Early Retirement Now because, like in the article you linked, a lot of his ideas are 1. Supported by not just theory, but also backtesting in real world conditions and 2. Able to be implemented. So I guess the question for me is: what specific changes have you made in your long term investing strategy due to Peters' work and why?

I am trying to figure out if anything Peters has written leads to actionable advice. I’ve been reading some of his papers with my limited mathematical ability which makes it hard for me to evaluate them. After all, the market isn’t a single time series bet, it’s an ensemble of bets (you buy all the companies).

This paper is the clearest working out of actionable consequences. https://sfi-edu.s3.amazonaws.com/sf...d/09-02-004.pdf

It ends up concluding that the optimal leverage for the market is probably…1. This is not a particularly revolutionary result but it’s a counter to the claim made by the time diversification guys who argue that a young person should have greater than 1 leverage early in life. So it’s a claim that argues against another somewhat fringe claim. But I’ve heard the time diversification guys get taken seriously by some evidence based investment people so having a counter argument seems worthwhile to consider.

If anything, his work has made me more suspicious of glide path asset allocations.

doingitwrong fucked around with this message at 03:44 on Dec 27, 2020

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


helping out a bit, a revised version of that article was later published in a finance journal and is freely available open access, here:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14697688.2010.513338?needAccess=true

moana
Jun 18, 2005

one of the more intellectual satire communities on the web

doingitwrong posted:

I am trying to figure out if anything Peters has written leads to actionable advice. I’ve been reading some of his papers with my limited mathematical ability which makes it hard for me to evaluate them. After all, the market isn’t a single time series bet, it’s an ensemble of bets
That shouldn't matter since he's using geometric brownian motion as a model; that's pretty easy to glob together separate correlated assets just using covariance.

quote:

It ends up concluding that the optimal leverage for the market is probably…1.
His reasoning in this part of the paper is really loving weird, can someone try to explain what the hell he's saying when he says that this is "a reasonable guess"? It sounds like some sort of efficient market type explanation but honestly seems handwavy considering he says the equations give you a different leverage solution that he dismisses.

Threadkiller Dog
Jun 9, 2010
How I understood it, leverage is one way to up your risk level to counter the dampening effect of diversification?

The best index fund i own (AP7 equity) leverages itself about 20% and its been outperforming its index for 10 years now. Possible because of the extra risk obviously, but it is still super diversified so the nature of the risk has shifted from equities in a way. Sadly its only cheap as hell because it is locked in a public pension plan but i wish i could put more money in it as it is.

E: now that i read about it the fund sounds a bit hedgy. But the allocation basically mirror msci world index.

Threadkiller Dog fucked around with this message at 13:24 on Dec 27, 2020

dexter6
Sep 22, 2003

pmchem posted:

edit: I love how this thread has come full circle from dismissing Kelly as a gambling strategy to saying it's been used for decades in economics and is basically obvious
hey there - it seems like you post a lot in this thread and it seems like a lot of those posts are kind of argumentative / making fun of people in this thread. 🤷🏻‍♂️ What sort of reactions are you hoping for?

doingitwrong
Jul 27, 2013

moana posted:

His reasoning in this part of the paper is really loving weird, can someone try to explain what the hell he's saying when he says that this is "a reasonable guess"? It sounds like some sort of efficient market type explanation but honestly seems handwavy considering he says the equations give you a different leverage solution that he dismisses.

Here’s my best understanding of that part. He’s writing in the wake of 2009 and is more concerned with systemic risk taking then individuals. So he calculates an optimal leverage of 1.54 but then worries that the model doesn’t really account for all the cost of borrowing, rebalancing etc which will tend to overstate the optimal leverage. This connected with the length of time needed for the time average to dominate the noise, means that the feedback loop for learning that you are over leveraged is long and gives room for misapplied risk models to allow highly leveraged entities to take on systemic risk and crash the economy.

In other words. This isn’t really a paper for individual investors but an attempt to argue that institutional investing that uses leverage has been based on bad assumptions.

It kind of demands a follow up.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


doingitwrong posted:

It kind of demands a follow up.

It appears he took a stab at that here: https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.4548

"It was hypothesized that this optimal leverage is attracted to 1, such that, e.g., leveraging an investment in the market portfolio cannot yield long-term outperformance. This places a strong constraint on the stochastic properties of prices of traded assets, which we call "leverage efficiency." Market conditions that deviate from leverage efficiency are unstable and may create leverage-driven bubbles. Here we expand on the hypothesis and its implications."

In the discussion, there's a big disclaimer buried about how their analysis does not recommend a particular investment strategy: "We emphasize that our work is in no way meant to advocate or evaluate constant-leverage or any other investment strategies." Section 4 covers actual applications. Amusingly, he shows how their theory could be used to detect fraud in the Madoff case.

Code and data for the paper is here: https://github.com/LMLhub/leverage_efficiency_codes

Flawless Victory
Dec 28, 2020

by Cyrano4747
Business, Finance, and Careers › Long Term Investing & Retirement: Empty my entire IRA and invest in Bitcoin, stat!

:hmmyes:

thalweg
Aug 26, 2019

i have a couple of kind of dumb questions that I haven't been able to figure out by reading/searching. Stuff is mostly in money market since I moved over to Vanguard out of expensive Raymond James funds halfway through this year and was too nervous to buy (i know, in hindsight that was bad, but I'm just gonna set it and forget it now)

1. I have a Roth IRA and taxable account at Vanguard. What is the best way to allocate fund placement between each account? I have ~12,000 in taxable and ~34,000 in the Roth. I'm planning on moving 6,000 over from the taxable at the start of 2021 to max the contribution. I'm planning on just using VTSAX/VTIAX or the ETF equivalent; I'm 33 and don't see the need for bonds yet. Is there some reason I wouldn't want to hold total market in both accounts? I've read a bit about how holding international in taxable can get you some foreign tax credit thing, but I'm not sure if I have any reason to worry about that.

2. Does share price matter for index ETFs? Looking at VOO/VTI, my understanding is they should have broadly similar performance, but VOO is $339 a share while VTI is $193 - is it better to own more shares (if that even makes sense?) or does it not really matter?

thalweg fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Dec 28, 2020

moana
Jun 18, 2005

one of the more intellectual satire communities on the web
1. You may want to slice and dice a bit more in your taxable account as it can give you more flexibility on withdrawal if you are invested in small/mid/large cap, developed, emerging, etc. You can pick which lots to sell and control your tax liability more than if you just had one or two large funds. This is kind of nitpicky until you have tons more money. The foreign tax credit will be like, a dollar for you and even with a million in investments it really won't matter that much.

2. No.

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut
Fund choices in my 401ks are reasonable (S&P500 index funds at not-awful expense ratios), but I'd prefer broader market exposure. I see a few routes:
1) Use taxable accounts to buy mid- and small-cap funds in proportion to balance things out. This is probably a little imperfect and might require periodic rebalancing.
2) Short an S&P index and use the proceeds to buy a long broader-based index.
3) Ignore the minor differences and wait until I eventually Roth ladder the money out of the 401ks.

Any issues with #2 I might be missing?

Capt. Awesome
Jun 17, 2005
¡orale vato!
Trying to figure out what to do with an old nondeductible traditional IRA I've got floating right now. Originally put in $5500 back in 2016, stuck it in VSTAX or whatever, and then promptly forgot about it. I had planned on backdooring it or something, but never figured it out and didn't do it. Fast forward 5 years, and it's worth ~$10500 or so. Looks like I have about ~$500 or so in dividends, and another $4.5k or so in capital gains.

Now, if I wanted to roll this to a Roth, so I can start doing a backdoor Roth on a yearly basis, I'm not sure what I need to do from a tax filing perspective, since it's not the same tax year. I'm not sure if the regular 8606 form works as it's from so many tax years ago, or if it requires amending previous returns, etc. Also not sure if it makes a difference if I do it this year before year end, or do it next year. I know I'll need to pay ordinary income tax (22%) on the $5000 it's grown, which would cost me somewhere around ~$1100.

The other thing I'm considering, is just taking an "early withdrawal" on the whole thing under the CARES act. The initial $5500 is all nondeductible, so that's covered. The other $5k can be pulled out without penalty due to CARES act, and just treated as regular income, which would end up costing me the same as if I rolled it, but seemingly without the headache of rolling it over and figuring out the tax situation. This money is all going right back into retirement accounts, so it's not really a matter of lost future gains or anything like that, it's really just trying to figure out the simplest way to move forward with doing backdoor Roth's, and starting from scratch sounds the most appealing.

Just wondering if anyone has any thoughts or opinions on the above.. thanks!

Small White Dragon
Nov 23, 2007

No relation.

Capt. Awesome posted:

Trying to figure out what to do with an old nondeductible traditional IRA I've got floating right now. Originally put in $5500 back in 2016, stuck it in VSTAX or whatever, and then promptly forgot about it. I had planned on backdooring it or something, but never figured it out and didn't do it. Fast forward 5 years, and it's worth ~$10500 or so. Looks like I have about ~$500 or so in dividends, and another $4.5k or so in capital gains.

Now, if I wanted to roll this to a Roth, so I can start doing a backdoor Roth on a yearly basis, I'm not sure what I need to do from a tax filing perspective, since it's not the same tax year. I'm not sure if the regular 8606 form works as it's from so many tax years ago, or if it requires amending previous returns, etc. Also not sure if it makes a difference if I do it this year before year end, or do it next year. I know I'll need to pay ordinary income tax (22%) on the $5000 it's grown, which would cost me somewhere around ~$1100.

IIRC, you'd file an 8606 this year and basically subtract the prior basis from years back from the amount you converted to Roth, and that amount would be taxable.

Keep in mind if you have any other non-Roth IRAs, this becomes more complicated.




On another note, does anyone here have any suggestions for/against Solo 401(k) providers, or have they done Solo 401(k)s that permit voluntarily post-tax (not Roth) contributions?

A few friends of mine and I have 401k(s) at work and have been talking about this as a way to increase retirement contributions from our individual respective side-gigs. SIMPLE/SEP IRAs are not desirable due to lower limits and since they complicate backdoor IRAs.

Small White Dragon fucked around with this message at 06:55 on Dec 29, 2020

Neurostorm
Sep 2, 2011
Is this the thread to ask for advice on which work fund to choose from? My wife recently started a new job and their retirement is managed by fidelity. There's 36 different funds to choose from, but I'm a little lost. When she first started, we defaulted her into the T Rowe Price Retirement 2055 fund, but that was mostly because it was the only target retirement fund in the vicinity of when she'll retire (and as someone who uses vanguard for my Roth IRA, my strategy has been to just take the target retirement date fund). I'm looking over it a bit closely now and it looks like the expense ratio is .71%, which seems high?

She has a total of 36 different funds to choose from, and the one's with lower expense ratios are one's like fidelity index 500 fund (FXAIX, .015% ER), Fidelity Total Market index fund (FSKAX, .015% ER), Fidelity extended market index fund (FSMAX, .036% ER), and Vanguard Small-cap index fund admiral shares, .05% ER). Aside from the foreign index fund, everything else has ER > .31%. We're not retiring for a while (and by the time where we need to start making more conservative allocations she will probably have left this job and rolled it over to vanguard funds, we don't expect to be here more than another year or two), so should I just take the 500 or the total market fund?

Thanks thread, let me know if there's other information that would be helpful.

gvibes
Jan 18, 2010

Leading us to the promised land (i.e., one tournament win in five years)

Neurostorm posted:

Is this the thread to ask for advice on which work fund to choose from? My wife recently started a new job and their retirement is managed by fidelity. There's 36 different funds to choose from, but I'm a little lost. When she first started, we defaulted her into the T Rowe Price Retirement 2055 fund, but that was mostly because it was the only target retirement fund in the vicinity of when she'll retire (and as someone who uses vanguard for my Roth IRA, my strategy has been to just take the target retirement date fund). I'm looking over it a bit closely now and it looks like the expense ratio is .71%, which seems high?

She has a total of 36 different funds to choose from, and the one's with lower expense ratios are one's like fidelity index 500 fund (FXAIX, .015% ER), Fidelity Total Market index fund (FSKAX, .015% ER), Fidelity extended market index fund (FSMAX, .036% ER), and Vanguard Small-cap index fund admiral shares, .05% ER). Aside from the foreign index fund, everything else has ER > .31%. We're not retiring for a while (and by the time where we need to start making more conservative allocations she will probably have left this job and rolled it over to vanguard funds, we don't expect to be here more than another year or two), so should I just take the 500 or the total market fund?

Thanks thread, let me know if there's other information that would be helpful.
Yeah, this is the thread.

You can try to mix your own to emulate the target fund. The target fund is at:

quote:

Category % of Total Net Assets Market Value (USD)
International & High Yield Bonds 2.25% $101,119,002.89
International Equities 30.43% $1,367,561,552.30
Investment Grade Bonds 3.05% $137,279,960.92
Reserves 2.82% $126,850,098.67
US Equities 61.45% $2,761,986,619.58
https://www.troweprice.com/financia...sset-allocation
So you could go like 63% Fidelity total market index, 32% in the foreign index fund, and find a bond fund for the other 5%. That would have a lower effective expense ratio than the 2055 fund.

Or you could just stick with the 2055 and roll it over to Vanguard when you leave. .7% for a handful of years isn't the end of the world.

gvibes fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Dec 29, 2020

Neurostorm
Sep 2, 2011

gvibes posted:

Yeah, this is the thread.

You can try to mix your own to emulate the target fund. The target fund is at:

So you could go like 63% Fidelity total market index, 32% in the foreign index fund, and find a bond fund for the other 5%. That would have a lower effective expense ratio than the 2055 fund.

Or you could just stick with the 2055 and roll it over to Vanguard when you leave. .7% for a handful of years isn't the end of the world.

Awesome, thanks for this! And yeah after I posted that I was thinking that .7% for a year and a half might end up being like $20 max so maybe not something to worry too much about.

zaurg
Mar 1, 2004
Is it really better to put the max Roth IRA contribution in as early as possible in January? Even if January is the peak of the year and market goes sideways/down Feb-Dec? Would it be better in the long run to auto-transfer $500 each month for the year?

*Sorry I'm sure this is the 50th time this question has been asked in this thread, please bear with me, my elevator doesn't go to the top floor.

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog
You might be able to buy more shares at a lower price in February than you could in January but that's a bad habit to get into that will have a net downward effect on your returns over time. "Time in the market beats timing the market" is a statistically valid claim.

If you've got jitters just pick a random day of the month and have an automated purchase of $500 every month. This also has a minor downward effect but it's trivial and you can think of it as insurance against becoming a market timer.

gvibes
Jan 18, 2010

Leading us to the promised land (i.e., one tournament win in five years)

zaurg posted:

Is it really better to put the max Roth IRA contribution in as early as possible in January? Even if January is the peak of the year and market goes sideways/down Feb-Dec? Would it be better in the long run to auto-transfer $500 each month for the year?

*Sorry I'm sure this is the 50th time this question has been asked in this thread, please bear with me, my elevator doesn't go to the top floor.
Obviously, if you know the markets are going to go down Feb-Dec, then yeah, wait, but you don't know that.

You are investing because you expect the market to go up, so you want to be in the market as long as possible - that means investing as soon as possible.

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing

zaurg posted:

Is it really better to put the max Roth IRA contribution in as early as possible in January? Even if January is the peak of the year and market goes sideways/down Feb-Dec? Would it be better in the long run to auto-transfer $500 each month for the year?

*Sorry I'm sure this is the 50th time this question has been asked in this thread, please bear with me, my elevator doesn't go to the top floor.

A Roth IRA is for long term investing so you should be looking at the long term trends. If you max your IRA contribution in January in 2021, then you may get beat by someone who dollar cost averages throughout the whole year if the market goes sideways afterwards. But if you max your IRA contribution in January 20 times over 20 straight years, then the odds of outperforming the DCA guy over that stretch are greater than even because time in the market beats timing.

totalnewbie
Nov 13, 2005

I was born and raised in China, lived in Japan, and now hold a US passport.

I am wrong in every way, all the damn time.

Ask me about my tattoos.

zaurg posted:

Is it really better to put the max Roth IRA contribution in as early as possible in January? Even if January is the peak of the year and market goes sideways/down Feb-Dec? Would it be better in the long run to auto-transfer $500 each month for the year?

*Sorry I'm sure this is the 50th time this question has been asked in this thread, please bear with me, my elevator doesn't go to the top floor.

It's really better to be a perfect investor but failing that, yes.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/does-market-timing-work

theratking
Jan 18, 2012
I have a few questions about asset allocation and tax efficient fund placement.

1. Is there a simple "rule of thumb" for how to treat early payoff of mortgage principal as part of an overall AA? I have heard the saying that mortgages are like "negative bonds", so could I consider early payments of principal as equivalent to buying a bond with my mortgage interest rate? I need to rebalance a bit into bonds and wondering if these are at least somewhat equivalent. I do understand that bonds and debt payoff are not identical (liquidity, etc).

2. Which account should hold bonds / bond funds? I have a taxable, Roth IRA and a 401k all with reasonable options. My understanding is that because bonds are not tax efficient they ideally should not go in a taxable account. Additionally, because Roth IRAs can be withdrawn tax-free they should be funded with the highest growth investments (e.g. stocks). Does that leave the 401k as the place where all / most of my bonds should live?

asur
Dec 28, 2012
There's a lot of complexity with asset location, but the general rule of thumb of bonds in pretax, e.g. 401k, is generally going to be good.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
i'm trying to determine the best tax advantage account setup for my personal situation

my employer doesn't offer a 401k or similar benefits, but i do have access to a roth ira through the state of california's calsavers program. the investment options for the fund are rather limited, but they offer a total market fund, the fees are low, and i appreciate the program having a pretty seamless experience of changing my contribution rate on the state website and my employer automatically changing the amount they directly deposit into the account without any extraneous paperwork

next year i anticipate earning about 37.5k pre-tax and maxing out my roth ira for the first time in my life. this comes out of some pretty strict personal budgeting, so i don't expect this amount to increase outside of annual raises going forward. i'm not carrying any debt. based on the low earning potential of my chosen field, i expect to be working past 65

recently i've become aware of the potential benefits of an hsa, and i do have a hdhp that would qualify me

i'm considering opening an hsa through a brokerage, maxing it out, and then putting the tax savings and the remaining money into the roth. i'd plan to hold off on taking withdrawals from the hsa until 65, with the plan to essentially treat it as a traditional ira with the additional benefits the hsa offers for medical expenses acting as a sweetener. am i correct that the setup most likely to yield the best long term returns? i know i'm in a low tax bracket now, and i pray that i'll be in a higher bracket later in life, so the roth has some advantages, but my understanding is that a traditional ira is generally superior if you're re-investing all of the tax savings. also is the roughly 5 year delay for when penalty free withdrawals can begin with an hsa vs a roth something i should be concerned about?

grenada
Apr 20, 2013
Relax.

theratking posted:

I have a few questions about asset allocation and tax efficient fund placement.

1. Is there a simple "rule of thumb" for how to treat early payoff of mortgage principal as part of an overall AA? I have heard the saying that mortgages are like "negative bonds", so could I consider early payments of principal as equivalent to buying a bond with my mortgage interest rate? I need to rebalance a bit into bonds and wondering if these are at least somewhat equivalent. I do understand that bonds and debt payoff are not identical (liquidity, etc).

2. Which account should hold bonds / bond funds? I have a taxable, Roth IRA and a 401k all with reasonable options. My understanding is that because bonds are not tax efficient they ideally should not go in a taxable account. Additionally, because Roth IRAs can be withdrawn tax-free they should be funded with the highest growth investments (e.g. stocks). Does that leave the 401k as the place where all / most of my bonds should live?

1. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=305147

2. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-efficient_fund_placement


Just as an FYI to you and others - you can google "Bogleheads (+ any retirement topic)" and you will get links to a detailed wiki and/or a dozen threads where a ton of smart people weigh in on these questions. This thread has a lot of good information and smart people but Bogleheads has a ton of traffic and pretty much every question about retirement has already been answered - usually several times over.

zaurg
Mar 1, 2004

totalnewbie posted:

It's really better to be a perfect investor but failing that, yes.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/does-market-timing-work

Thank you for the link. That's exactly what I was looking for.
Another reason I was considering switching to the dollar cost averaging method for my Roth IRA this year was to build in the $500 monthly contribution into a monthly budget.
I can still do that after putting 6k in, then just put 500 per month into a savings account, being set aside for 2022.

Small White Dragon
Nov 23, 2007

No relation.

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

i'm trying to determine the best tax advantage account setup for my personal situation

my employer doesn't offer a 401k or similar benefits, but i do have access to a roth ira through the state of california's calsavers program. the investment options for the fund are rather limited, but they offer a total market fund, the fees are low, and i appreciate the program having a pretty seamless experience of changing my contribution rate on the state website and my employer automatically changing the amount they directly deposit into the account without any extraneous paperwork

next year i anticipate earning about 37.5k pre-tax and maxing out my roth ira for the first time in my life. this comes out of some pretty strict personal budgeting, so i don't expect this amount to increase outside of annual raises going forward. i'm not carrying any debt. based on the low earning potential of my chosen field, i expect to be working past 65

First off, congratulations, you are way ahead of the game for most people in your situation.

That said, I am not familiar with CalSavers (although I also worked at a place in CA without any sort of retirement benefits offered) but if that doesn't work for you, you can generally open an IRA somewhere else and have it auto-debit your account on a certain day.

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

recently i've become aware of the potential benefits of an hsa, and i do have a hdhp that would qualify me

i'm considering opening an hsa through a brokerage, maxing it out, and then putting the tax savings and the remaining money into the roth. i'd plan to hold off on taking withdrawals from the hsa until 65, with the plan to essentially treat it as a traditional ira with the additional benefits the hsa offers for medical expenses acting as a sweetener. am i correct that the setup most likely to yield the best long term returns?

This is a great setup if you're healthy enough to benefit from it. You can take money out now for medical expenses and it's totally tax free.

Two things of note:
1. Does your employer allow direction contributions to an HSA? Because these may be exempt from FICA (social security and medicare tax) if so.
2. California does not adhere to federal tax law for HSAs, so those contributions (and any growth) are not tax exempt on your state return.

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

i know i'm in a low tax bracket now, and i pray that i'll be in a higher bracket later in life, so the roth has some advantages, but my understanding is that a traditional ira is generally superior if you're re-investing all of the tax savings. also is the roughly 5 year delay for when penalty free withdrawals can begin with an hsa vs a roth something i should be concerned about?

I think the tax bracket that would matter is when you retire, and do you really expect that to be higher when you retire?

Opinions will vary, but I think if the tax rebate of the traditional IRA enables you to put more away, then you should pursue that.

As another sidenote, you might be able to claim the retirement savers credit. (I think you can subtract out HSA and traditional IRA contributions and some other things when calculating income subject to it.). Probably worth looking into, might net you a free couple hundred bucks.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Small White Dragon posted:

First off, congratulations, you are way ahead of the game for most people in your situation.

That said, I am not familiar with CalSavers (although I also worked at a place in CA without any sort of retirement benefits offered) but if that doesn't work for you, you can generally open an IRA somewhere else and have it auto-debit your account on a certain day.

thanks for the advice! i do know that there are other workable options out there, and honestly the idea of opening something with vanguard or fidelity and setting up an auto-debit is tempting, but it generally takes me quite a bit of energy to work myself up to research, plan, and do the paperwork, which makes the next bit of your advice a little sad to hear

quote:

This is a great setup if you're healthy enough to benefit from it. You can take money out now for medical expenses and it's totally tax free.

Two things of note:
1. Does your employer allow direction contributions to an HSA? Because these may be exempt from FICA (social security and medicare tax) if so.
2. California does not adhere to federal tax law for HSAs, so those contributions (and any growth) are not tax exempt on your state return.

i had completely overlooked california's tax laws regarding hsas, and it's taking some wind out of my sails. i suppose since the roth i'm currently contributing to isn't pre-tax anyway, i could set up the hsa, reinvest the federal tax saving, and still come out ahead

since i'm already planning on holding everything till retirement, then if i'm understanding correctly, i would only need to track and report any dividends for state taxes. i would just have to hope that california ends up changing their tax laws regarding these accounts sometime in the next 35 years so i won't have to worry about the eventual capital gains. i'm in general good health, and my emergency savings are already larger than my annual out of pocket caps, so i don't anticipate needing to use the account any time soon outside of completely catastrophic circumstances

as far as i know my employer doesn't allow direct contributions to an hsa or any other tax advantaged accounts outside of the state mandated one. they're a small non-profit and our bookkeeper has a hard enough time handling our regular payroll. i suppose i'll have to sit down with her, explain what i'm trying to do, and have them decrease my federal withholdings based on the amount i'm planning to contribute to the hsa, and then just keep an eye on everything throughout the year to make sure it's all lining up

it sounds like a pain, but 12% of $3,600 is about $432 to reinvest, which is about a 7% increase on what i'm otherwise capable of investing

thanks again for the help, you saved me a major surprise somewhere down the line

smackfu
Jun 7, 2004

I own some Vanguard Star fund (VGSTX) in my Roth IRA because I bought it ten years ago and never bothered selling it. It seems like I just got 5% of my holding as capital gains and the price went down 5% to accommodate. Anyone know what’s up with that? If it was in a taxable account this would be an unpleasant surprise.

Space Gopher
Jul 31, 2006

BLITHERING IDIOT AND HARDCORE DURIAN APOLOGIST. LET ME TELL YOU WHY THIS SHIT DON'T STINK EVEN THOUGH WE ALL KNOW IT DOES BECAUSE I'M SUPER CULTURED.

smackfu posted:

I own some Vanguard Star fund (VGSTX) in my Roth IRA because I bought it ten years ago and never bothered selling it. It seems like I just got 5% of my holding as capital gains and the price went down 5% to accommodate. Anyone know what’s up with that? If it was in a taxable account this would be an unpleasant surprise.

Some of the stocks in the fund paid out a dividend.

Can you go into more detail about what you mean by “I just got 5% of my holding as capital gains?” If you just saw some cash land in hour settlement fund, you probably need to turn on reinvestment somewhere.

smackfu
Jun 7, 2004

Yeah, 5% capital gains that got reinvested so since it is a non-taxable account it was basically meaningless.

Gazpacho
Jun 18, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Slippery Tilde
Mutual funds distribute their income and gains to all investors to create an accounting record for tax purposes. It's then the investor's responsibility to pay tax appropriately. Gains in a Roth IRA are tax-advantaged so you should be OK.

theratking
Jan 18, 2012

laxbro posted:

1. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=305147

2. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-efficient_fund_placement


Just as an FYI to you and others - you can google "Bogleheads (+ any retirement topic)" and you will get links to a detailed wiki and/or a dozen threads where a ton of smart people weigh in on these questions. This thread has a lot of good information and smart people but Bogleheads has a ton of traffic and pretty much every question about retirement has already been answered - usually several times over.

Thanks! Looks like:
1. The approach with treating extra mortgage payments as a bond purchase is not unanimous but seems somewhat reasonable, with caveats
2. Indeed the Roth should be filled with highest growing assets, all else equal

Boot and Rally
Apr 21, 2006

8===D
Nap Ghost

moana posted:

1. You may want to slice and dice a bit more in your taxable account as it can give you more flexibility on withdrawal if you are invested in small/mid/large cap, developed, emerging, etc. You can pick which lots to sell and control your tax liability more than if you just had one or two large funds. This is kind of nitpicky until you have tons more money. The foreign tax credit will be like, a dollar for you and even with a million in investments it really won't matter that much.


How much is 'tons more money'? I'm trying to figure out when I should start paying attention after dumping everything in target 2045 funds for a few years.

moana
Jun 18, 2005

one of the more intellectual satire communities on the web

Boot and Rally posted:

How much is 'tons more money'? I'm trying to figure out when I should start paying attention after dumping everything in target 2045 funds for a few years.
I'm lazy so I'll probably never do itty bitty slice and dice, also my tax bracket isn't high so my tax savings isn't that big. I only have VTSAX/VTIAX with a $500k taxable portfolio. I guess the answer would be "however much effort you want to put into managing your portfolio to eke out some tax savings." Remember you can only use $3k/year of tax loss harvesting against ordinary income anyway, and tax loss harvesting only shifts your tax burden to later, it doesn't mean you never pay taxes on it. If you had a $100M portfolio, it would be pretty important to slice and dice because you might not ever have to pay taxes that way (assuming you're okay with leaving a bunch of money in inheritance instead of spending it all).

But a target date fund is bad for taxable investing because it holds lots of bonds that poop out income, and you don't want income producing stuff in your taxable account because you have to pay tax on that income now. Increase your bond holdings in your IRAs/401ks, and keep only stock index funds in your taxable so that it balances out overall.

H110Hawk
Dec 28, 2006

moana posted:

I'm lazy so I'll probably never do itty bitty slice and dice, also my tax bracket isn't high so my tax savings isn't that big. I only have VTSAX/VTIAX with a $500k taxable portfolio. I guess the answer would be "however much effort you want to put into managing your portfolio to eke out some tax savings." Remember you can only use $3k/year of tax loss harvesting against ordinary income anyway, and tax loss harvesting only shifts your tax burden to later, it doesn't mean you never pay taxes on it.

I feel like this sells it short. There is a $300/$600 credit available (some restrictions apply, see website for full terms and conditions. Taxes and fees extra. May not get advertised speeds or any speed.) It's a bit min/max-y but if you're into taxable investing it seems like a pretty low effort way to save $300-600, especially since once you hit enough to cap it out you can just keep doing the no effort target date funds, eating whatever income tax you have to pay on it.

Tax loss harvesting, even at 22% marginal and $3k/year is $660. Unless you have to itemize then you're going to need to look at your taxes more closely.

If you're already itemizing this stuff adds up. Or at least my tax person has to add it up.

Edit: I went and looked, and for Fidelity's FSPSX I think I only owned like $150k of it at the end of 2019 and I got $2500 in Qualified dividends and paid ~$200 in foreign taxes. I feel like this gets to be worth it if you have a few hundred grand in there. I'll find out this year. At least compared to ordinary income you're saving something like 7%-20% compared to whatever the target date fund pukes out.

H110Hawk fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Jan 3, 2021

Virginia Slams
Nov 17, 2012
So I recently got a pretty decent job and now it's time for me to choose my benefits like 401k, life insurance etc, would this be the place to ask for advice? I'm willing to post some background info like my age, financial situation or whatever is needed if anyone is willing to help.

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H110Hawk
Dec 28, 2006

Virginia Slams posted:

So I recently got a pretty decent job and now it's time for me to choose my benefits like 401k, life insurance etc, would this be the place to ask for advice? I'm willing to post some background info like my age, financial situation or whatever is needed if anyone is willing to help.

This is it, post away. Fund choices, age, financial situation, married, children, etc.

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