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Taiko
Jul 13, 2006
Is the Georgia SOS not posting county data? Would like to have real numbers rather than having to hunt and peck on the NYTimes map.

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Thom12255
Feb 23, 2013
WHERE THE FUCK IS MY MONEY
Erm did 10,000 democratic voters only vote for one of the candidates?

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver

Thom12255 posted:

Erm did 10,000 democratic voters only vote for one of the candidates?


Knowing the state of Georgia it's entirely possible some Warnock voters specifically didn't vote for Ossoff because his get out the vote campaign was pretty obnoxiously in-your-face

1337JiveTurkey
Feb 17, 2005

Also there's probably the sweet sweet mercy of never hearing the words Jon Ossoff again demographic after the last few years.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice
It would be a shame I think since Ossoff seemed to have campaigned well from what I saw.

Taiko
Jul 13, 2006
Live results via GA's Scytl site:

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/detail/10000

Rea
Apr 5, 2011

Komi-san won.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346618878592483328

Small county, but this looks better than what Webster indicated.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice
There are things I want to say, but I won't for fear of the thing from on high.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
From the 538 live blog

NATHANIEL RAKICH
7:34 PM
And we also just got about 96,000 absentee votes in Gwinnett County (the Atlanta suburbs). Ossoff won this batch 70 percent to 30 percent, and Warnock won them 71 percent to 29 percent. Biden won Gwinnett absentee ballots just 66 percent to 33 percent, so that’s a pretty good sign for Democrats.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



I've seen enough

Seph
Jul 12, 2004

Please look at this photo every time you support or defend war crimes. Thank you.

Rea posted:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346618878592483328

Small county, but this looks better than what Webster indicated.

So less relative turnout than DeKalb, and at a tighter margin than the general election. Definitely a good sign but obviously it's just one small county.

Crows Turn Off
Jan 7, 2008


Rea posted:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346618878592483328

Small county, but this looks better than what Webster indicated.
It's just going to be this all night, like that Simpsons bit.

"Ooh, that's bad."
"That's good."
"That's bad."
"That's good."

"Can I go now?"

Crows Turn Off fucked around with this message at 01:51 on Jan 6, 2021

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

cr0y posted:

I've seen enough

Don't anger the thing from on high!

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo
Gonna be in for a long night or two! After freaking the gently caress out on election night I have learned to wait though, hopefully the normal doom posters can do the same and not Kramer around every single thread.

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346620180223422465It took Wasserman like 2 whole days to say anything even close to this optimistic during the Presidential race.

Rea
Apr 5, 2011

Komi-san won.
At least we have the general election results to let us know that things were gonna be incredibly tight no matter what this time, rather than the Big Nothing we had going into the general.

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

I have learned nothing from Nov and will freak out at maximum level until the result is in even if it takes a week

Alctel
Jan 16, 2004

I love snails


If you click on the needle page and click on the results, Dems are slightly overperforming and R underperforming on everything that's come in so far on the estimates

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...election_recirc

Rea
Apr 5, 2011

Komi-san won.

Alctel posted:

If you click on the needle page and click on the results, Dems are slightly overperforming and R underperforming on everything that's come in so far on the estimates

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...election_recirc

As noted by Cohn on the sidebar, this is because Dems are faring better than expected in the early vote. However, we still don't know how day-of voting turned out, which is what the GOP is banking on.

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo

smoobles posted:

I have learned nothing from Nov and will freak out at maximum level until the result is in even if it takes a week

I mean same but I am gonna keep it inside

Rea
Apr 5, 2011

Komi-san won.
The needles keep barely inching towards the Dems every time I check it.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346621330947452928

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


The good guys might win. Again. :ohdear:

Rea
Apr 5, 2011

Komi-san won.

quote:

Text from a progressive strategist involved in Democratic efforts in Georgia: “Ugh. Here we go. That feeling I hate is back: hope.”

Really feeling this entry in the NYT needle sidebar. :v:

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Rea posted:

Really feeling this entry in the NYT needle sidebar. :v:

Mood. I'm basically just sipping my rum and coke glancing at the needle and not saying anything hopeful for fear of angering the thing from on high and the needle, we live under the rule of capricious gods.

Rea
Apr 5, 2011

Komi-san won.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346622642967769090

It should be illegal for US counties to share the same name, in my opinion.

Slightly good news keeps piling up, but I'm bracing for some urban area catastrophe on the level of Miami-Dade.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Say the line Dave!

What is the line he's supposed to say?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Gabriel S. posted:

Say the line Dave!

What is the line he's supposed to say?

I've seen enough

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice
One thing I'm not understanding that's making me nervous is why is Loeffler and Perdue ~+1 in their Remaining (est.) sections but its a different result for who the race is so far tilting towards?

Rea
Apr 5, 2011

Komi-san won.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346623826197704707

Again, I'm still bracing for something on the line of the Miami-Dade catastrophe that triggered the physical symptoms of my 2016 PTSD.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346624596804513797

Stop it with this hope poo poo

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346626163540635648

H...hope?

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

TBF I was guessing this too.

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo
So is it people hating Ossof that much or hating the annoying lady more than the black pastor? (Potentially)

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Wait people are split ticketing in a runoff between a dem and a republican? Wtf lmao

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Derpies posted:

So is it people hating Ossof that much or hating the annoying lady more than the black pastor? (Potentially)

Currently on Fox News as that has a more convenient vote tally up than the NYT needle page does, Warnock is leading Ossof by only 5k votes, so not by a lot either way. Likewise Perdue and Loeffler is an approximate 6-7k difference. A blip currently in a race I imagine that will have a 50k vote difference hopefully?

Rea
Apr 5, 2011

Komi-san won.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346627520205115398

Hey, that's not bad.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually

cr0y posted:

Wait people are split ticketing in a runoff between a dem and a republican? Wtf lmao
There is literally no figuring voters.

Lots of people "vote for the person, not the party", or they let their racism or sexism be the determinative factor, or they imagine themselves wise and above politics by splitting their vote (to "send a message" about "the importance of cooperating and getting along")

The higher the turnout, the more people who don't usually vote (and aren't particularly plugged in to the day-to-day political landscape) and whose voting behavior is idiosyncratic show up to vote.

FMguru fucked around with this message at 02:29 on Jan 6, 2021

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Raenir Salazar posted:

One thing I'm not understanding that's making me nervous is why is Loeffler and Perdue ~+1 in their Remaining (est.) sections but its a different result for who the race is so far tilting towards?

The dems have like a 10 point lead in the votes already counted, but what's left includes a lot of rural election day votes so the end result won't be D+10.

cr0y posted:

Wait people are split ticketing in a runoff between a dem and a republican? Wtf lmao

I mean it's not many of them, I don't think it's that weird if there are a few thousand people in Georgia who voted randomly.

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

MSNBC has a Kornacki Cam during commercials where we are literally just watching him stare at his computer and write notes. This is amazing.

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Fill Baptismal
Dec 15, 2008

FMguru posted:

There is literally no figuring voters.

Lots of people "vote for the person, not the party", or they let their racism or sexism be the determinative factor, or they imagine themselves wise and above politics by splitting their vote (to "send a message" about "the importance of cooperating and getting along")

The higher the turnout, the more people who don't usually vote (and aren't particularly plugged in to the day-to-day political landscape) and whose voting behavior is...idiosyncratic.

The key thing to realize is that “swing voters” actually do exist, in quantities that can sometimes decide elections, but they aren’t principled moderates or centrists or whatever, they’re stupid and/or insane.

Youth Decay posted:

MSNBC has a Kornacki Cam during commercials where we are literally just watching him stare at his computer and write notes. This is amazing.

Id actually be genuinely curious to know what software/tools he uses. The model itself is probably secret sauce the specifics of which they wouldn’t disclose but I wonder if he uses like R or Stata or whatever.

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