Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
jokes
Dec 20, 2012

Uh... Kupo?

FistEnergy posted:

I don't care how high TSLA goes, it's a house of cards and a joke and if I put any money into it, it will immediately collapse as it should have 2 years ago

Put some money in so we can begin to restore sanity in the stock market.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Rolo
Nov 16, 2005

Hmm, what have we here?
2k stim is looking like it has a chance. Given that I’m always wrong when trying to predict the market...

Red tomorrow?

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe
This kind of got missed on the last page, so I'll repost it.


https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kr5ewm/meet_perspecta_prsp_a_boomer_palantir_that_might/

Is this guy full of poo poo, or does this look like a winner to you guys?

quote:

Thesis: a buyout of PRSP is imminent. January options are where the UOA is placed at. Price target for buyout: $32-33. My position: https://imgur.com/gallery/4DTgF2J

Hey [edited out slur] long time no see I’ve been here for a while and I see no really quality plays out there so here’s one where it involves some good ol’ fashioned DD, some massive unusual options activity and some massive whales that are in a stock that most of you have never heard about, waiting for a buyout that is imminent by January 15 according to the whales’ calls.

Perspecta is a boomer version of Palantir that has a backlog of military and government IT contracts. Spun out of DXC technologies, the company is massively undervalued at 23 bucks a share where it is currently trading. PRSP has been a target of merger and acquisition in the past but there have only been rumors until Jana partners (the massive whale) took a heavy position. Now who tf is Jana?

Jana partners specializes in special-situation strategies (aka they park their money in a company and force them to get bought out). One of their successful plays was none other than Computer Sciences corporation, a company that was merged with HP enterprise to make DXC technologies (you see where I’m going with this? They’ve done this before in the same exact sector with the same exact company that was the parent of Perspecta).

Now, the timing here is key. You wanna buy FD's with the maximum likelihood of making it. This is where the unusual options kick in. A massive whale has taken a 5500 call position on the January 22.5 strike. More speculative plays have been placed on the 25 strike at 0.7 avg cost (averaging around 200k in premium total in 3-4 sweeps, by my estimate one person has placed 100k of premium). This stock has next to 0 retail interest so I think these options are bought by more sophisticated traders (less than 1000 watchers on stocktwits).

To make things more interesting, Perspecta has leaked that they're in the process of a potential buyout: https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekin...al-sale-shares.

That news "leak" was right after insiders loaded 90 million dollars worth of shares at 18.87 average. To top it all off, all of the major funds that are heavily invested in PRSP (Point72, DE Shaw, Maverick Capital etc) have added heavily to their stakes in the past quarter. This, along with the UOA on options and the heavy coiling of the chart, points to a January buyout.

Perspecta is trading at around 8.2 EBITDA, but average company in this sector is trading at 11.5-12. Given the fact that the CEO has said that shares are undervalued at 25 and that these whales have increased their stakes with an average cost of 23 or so per share, we’re looking at a price target of 32-33 for the potential buyout. The 30 FD’s are currently trading at just 0.1, making this a high reward to risk scenario.

Last but not least, just look at the chart. The amount of coiling resembles all of the buyouts that we’ve seen (such as FLIR as the most recent example). Heavy blocks have been bought everyday at MOC so someone has been building a large stake.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Rolo posted:

2k stim is looking like it has a chance. Given that I’m always wrong when trying to predict the market...

Red tomorrow?

Our market shat itself today because apparently investors think stimulus is bad and would prefer 4 years of deadlock

Brass Hand
Feb 27, 2020

FistEnergy posted:

I don't care how high TSLA goes, it's a house of cards and a joke and if I put any money into it, it will immediately collapse as it should have 2 years ago

Please do for all our sakes

paternity suitor
Aug 2, 2016

Rolo posted:

2k stim is looking like it has a chance. Given that I’m always wrong when trying to predict the market...

Red tomorrow?

Rotation out of tech and into "regular" stocks

FreelanceSocialist
Nov 19, 2002

Rolo posted:

2k stim is looking like it has a chance. Given that I’m always wrong when trying to predict the market...

Red tomorrow?

Considering how much money I lost yesterday on a poorly timed UVXY play, I fully expect a red day because the market loves to rub my failures in my face.

DoubleT2172
Sep 24, 2007

Bored As gently caress posted:

This kind of got missed on the last page, so I'll repost it.


https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kr5ewm/meet_perspecta_prsp_a_boomer_palantir_that_might/

Is this guy full of poo poo, or does this look like a winner to you guys?

All I know is the pre the post the guy was supposedly holding 1/15 30C that he had paid $.70/contract for that were worth $.10 at the time of the post. I checked after he had got the interest drummed up and they were $.40/bid&$.50/ask. Real convenient way to get out without as much loss

Lord_Hambrose
Nov 21, 2008

*a foul hooting fills the air*



drat, just realized my gambling account did 30 percent this year. Thanks thread!

Shoutouts of course to the oil fiasco earlier this year, but my warmest wishes go out to DFS.

Lieutenant Dan
Oct 27, 2009

Weedlord Bonerhitler
cashed out all most of my weed ETFs yesterday and they're all mysteriously up 9% this morning :saddowns:

flowinprose
Sep 11, 2001

Where were you? .... when they built that ladder to heaven...

pmchem posted:

I tilted heavy into value at the start of last month. My retirement stuff is currently in a mix of ETFs because not all my accounts have the same choices:

~60% US:

VTV, ~20%
RSP, ~20%
VXF-equivalent, ~30%
VOO-equivalent, ~20%
VFH, ~10%

those numbers are ballpark, I'd have to check my spreadsheet for details

~40% int'l:

VEA and IEFA-equivalent, equal amounts


sometime in 2021 I'll rotate out of US value and tilt from total int'l to a factor int'l such as momentum or growth

I was in emerging mkts for a while but will revisit those in 2021. If you want heavy Taiwan exposure without going to a Taiwan-specific ETF, check out EMXC or FRDM. They're both broad EM funds heavy in TSMC (and no China).


Curious whether you plan any changes on the above based on what looks like a dem sweep in the Georgia senate races?

Mineaiki
Nov 20, 2013

Is there really anything to the fears that Dem wins in Georgia will change anything? I thought Biden was the signal that nothing is going to move far in any direction for at least 4 years.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


flowinprose posted:

Curious whether you plan any changes on the above based on what looks like a dem sweep in the Georgia senate races?

Well, the simple version of the ideas behind the allocation were that: (a) pandemic megatech stocks would underperform compared to US value, small caps and developed markets due to vaccine/re-opening rebound, and (b) that big banks and financials (captured in VFH) would outperform due to bond yields rising and yield curve steepening.

Both ideas were generally supported by the post-GFC recession recovery, too. At least for a short period (e.g. look at that collection from mid-'09 to mid-'10 -- only dev mkts underperformed SPY).

I think the ideas behind (a) and (b) still hold given a dem sweep. How long? I don't know. I can't see staying in this through all of 2021. I'll take it one day at a time. So far, it has worked out quite well compared to the S&P as benchmark since early/mid-November when I made the change: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,VEA,VXF,VTV,RSP,VFH&n=36&O=011000

FWIW, the market today likes how I've tilted the allocation. At time of this post:

VFH +3.0%
VTV +1.3%
RSP +1.3%
VXF +1.1%
VEA +0.7%
..
SPY +0.2%

Brass Hand
Feb 27, 2020

Woodchip posted:

Hello TLRY, we meet again, in at 9.2,

Same here. May take the easy money today

Rolo
Nov 16, 2005

Hmm, what have we here?
Holding GIK. What are your targets you’re trying to hit pre merger?

Sand Monster
Apr 13, 2008

Rolo posted:

Holding GIK. What are your targets you’re trying to hit pre merger?

Not sure on PT but some good news for GIK holders: https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...ssions-Vehicles

Lieutenant Dan posted:

cashed out all most of my weed ETFs yesterday and they're all mysteriously up 9% this morning :saddowns:

It may not be much of a mystery and just going by the possible Democrat controlled Senate based on the GA results (I think).

Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010

Brass Hand posted:

Same here. May take the easy money today

Just cashed out. I’ll get back in if it dips in the next few days.

Lieutenant Dan
Oct 27, 2009

Weedlord Bonerhitler

Sand Monster posted:

It may not be much of a mystery and just going by the possible Democrat controlled Senate based on the GA results (I think).

This is kinda what I was thinking, I was planning to go long on them over time while it legalized but changed my mind at the last minute (welp!)

Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010
RUT/Iwm must be full of weed stocks, pushing 3%

Inept
Jul 8, 2003

Bored As gently caress posted:

This kind of got missed on the last page, so I'll repost it.


https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kr5ewm/meet_perspecta_prsp_a_boomer_palantir_that_might/

Is this guy full of poo poo, or does this look like a winner to you guys?

I didn't read it but it's on wsb and it uses slurs, so you should definitely listen to whoever the gently caress that is.

thats not candy
Mar 10, 2010

Hell Gem

Rolo posted:

Holding GIK. What are your targets you’re trying to hit pre merger?

I don't know if this is going to keep going or is just a blip like the two peaks before. I'm not sure what to do honestly, but I'm holding april calls not shares. I might sell a few if it breaks 15 today in case this is just another bubble, while I hold the rest.

Cramer is going to interview NGA tonight so if anyone bought into to that you'll see probably another bump on top of this mornings. I imagine he will plug Lightning as we get closer to merger. I think gik saw its last two bubbles when he interviewed XL, so tomorrow might be green so maybe I won't take any profit today. :rolldice:

thats not candy fucked around with this message at 16:35 on Jan 6, 2021

Arzakon
Nov 24, 2002

"I hereby retire from Mafia"
Please turbo me if you catch me in a game.

Rolo posted:

Holding GIK. What are your targets you’re trying to hit pre merger?

I wanted some out today at 15 but was wishy washy and didn't set a limit order until it was back below.

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

man, yesterday was not a great time to buy a bunch of tmf lol

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


fart simpson posted:

man, yesterday was not a great time to buy a bunch of tmf lol

yeah, that would suck. 10-year notes have blown through 1% yields. Really bad day to be holding bonds of pretty much any type; ETF prices for corporates, long TIPS, MBS, even interest-rate hedged corporates are also down. But it may rebound tomorrow, who knows. At least munis are flat.

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G
Sold PLTR puts Jan 22 expiration 22.50 strike price at $0.90.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

ON TO THE NEXT PAGE!
Followed some rando comment on wsb two weeks ago about buying MS March 75c. Only bought one as a gamble but gently caress it I’ll take a 150% return of a couple hundred bucks.

Never go broke taking profits. Thanks, Dems!

HamsterPolice
Apr 17, 2016

We need to make a goon index

Brass Hand
Feb 27, 2020

HamsterPolice posted:

We need to make a goon index

JEFFK

jokes
Dec 20, 2012

Uh... Kupo?

Goons with Doubloons

Sand Monster
Apr 13, 2008

Oscar Wild posted:

Sold PLTR puts Jan 22 expiration 22.50 strike price at $0.90.

When is that lockup expiration period that I keep hearing about?

numberoneposter
Feb 19, 2014

How much do I cum? The answer might surprise you!

i think the weed stocks probably bottomed out a few months ago and now might be a good time to make some cash on the up, but im hesitant to add more than my $100 to TLRY

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G

Sand Monster posted:

When is that lockup expiration period that I keep hearing about?

Generally 90 to 120 days post IPO, not sure with PLTR but if I was an insider I wouldn't be selling large blocks.

I am thinking its February, most stocks don't correct massively after lockup, but tech stocks are different.

Oscar Wild fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Jan 6, 2021

pixaal
Jan 8, 2004

All ice cream is now for all beings, no matter how many legs.


numberoneposter posted:

i think the weed stocks probably bottomed out a few months ago and now might be a good time to make some cash on the up, but im hesitant to add more than my $100 to TLRY

My weed stocks are +15% compared to yesterday and I'm buying more. We have a pro-weed government going into this year. You think +15% was all that was between floor and ceiling?

Nitramster
Mar 10, 2006
THERE'S NO TIME!!!

pixaal posted:

My weed stocks are +15% compared to yesterday and I'm buying more. We have a pro-weed government going into this year. You think +15% was all that was between floor and ceiling?

What are some good weed stocks? I'd like to drop a benji here and there.

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe
GIK, CRHC, and FUSE hasn't done anything for me. They've been flat for so long. Anyone staying in on these?

thats not candy
Mar 10, 2010

Hell Gem

Bored As gently caress posted:

GIK, CRHC, and FUSE hasn't done anything for me. They've been flat for so long. Anyone staying in on these?

I'm holding GIK cause I'm fairly confident it will hit at least $20 before merger, but we've got a couple months to go and I'll probably keep trying to at least play it's swings until it starts ramping up.

Sand Monster
Apr 13, 2008

Bored As gently caress posted:

GIK, CRHC, and FUSE hasn't done anything for me. They've been flat for so long. Anyone staying in on these?

Has FUSE even announced a target? They went public in June which is still kind of "young" for SPAC world, right?

thats not candy
Mar 10, 2010

Hell Gem
people taking today's profits now cause capitol getting overrun

thats not candy
Mar 10, 2010

Hell Gem
lmao i should have sold everything today

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Artonos
Dec 3, 2018

Nitramster posted:

What are some good weed stocks? I'd like to drop a benji here and there.

I've brought IIPR up once or twice in this thread. They're a company that owns warehouses used for weed growing. They often buy properties, improve them for grow operations and then lease them out. They're going to sell some stock soon because they're overbought, when they do that it'll probably be an entry point.

There's always the MJ ETF or anything it holds if you're looking for ideas.

There's also some weed SPAC that grows medicinal marijuana in central America and got approved by the EU to sell to companies. If you want to get in on a SPAC. It looked interesting but kinda small, definitely a gamble and I didn't really research it.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply