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Things that should happen (now that the Dems seem to have grabbed the trifecta): 1) Biden will get all (or almost all) of his cabinet (and subcabinet) appointees through 2) Two years of Democrats filling open judgeships (and replacing Breyer on the Supreme Court, who absolutely needs to retire by the end of the year) 2a) Hey, if Alito or Thomas keel over - woo hoo! 3) An actual stimulus package (with green energy subsidies! and $2000 checks!) to get the COVID economy going again 4) McConnell not being able to sabotage the economy heading into the 2022 midterms 5) Passage of a comprehensive voting rights act 6) No debt ceiling showdowns, no sequester, something resembling a real budget process 7) Obamacare expansion and fixes should pass Two things to be wary of: 1) A 50-50 Senate means that if anything happens to a single Senator - a heart attack, a plane crash, COVID - then the whole thing is dead (Ted Kennedy dying early in 2009 almost tanked Obamacare, remember), so Biden should push through his agenda aggressively and quickly. His trifecta could last a lot less than two years. 2) Manchin and Sinema now have veto power over, well, pretty much everything. Adjust your expectations for things like M4A and court expansion and the GND and DC statehood and getting rid of the filibuster accordingly. Still, it's 1000x better than if Mitch was still holding onto his Majority Leadership, and an enormous step up from how things looked after Election Day 2020.
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Jan 6, 2021 06:37
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Potato Salad posted:Why is Joe Manchin going to be the majority leader? Did Schumer die or something? He's not the majority leader, he's considered the farthest right democrat, so he has the most potential to break ranks and vote the wrong way on stuff
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Jan 6, 2021 06:38
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Potato Salad posted:Why is Joe Manchin going to be the majority leader? Did Schumer die or something? Not actually, but he’s de facto going to be the most powerful vote.
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Jan 6, 2021 06:38
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FMguru posted:Things that should happen (now that the Dems seem to have grabbed the trifecta): HR1. If they can't pass HR1 they are doomed as a party.
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Jan 6, 2021 06:39
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The other side is that with Schumer as majority leader, the handful of gettable Republicans will have to take public votes on popular Democratic legislation instead of McConnell blocking everything, so they won't necessarily get away with 50 no votes on every bill. (Manchin and Sinema are still well to the left of Murkowski so it doesn't change too much)
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Jan 6, 2021 06:45
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346695657357250560?s=20
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Jan 6, 2021 06:57
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DDHQ has Ossoff take the lead https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1346708685503004673
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Jan 6, 2021 07:48
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MSNBC called it for Warnock. https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1346710610491408384?s=20
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Jan 6, 2021 07:50
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Delthalaz posted:DDHQ has Ossoff take the lead
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Jan 6, 2021 07:59
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Grouchio posted:Will this one need a recount? Of course it will. Maybe two or three. But this lead will probably widen a bit so a recount wont do anything.
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Jan 6, 2021 08:23
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DDHQ called it https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1346717051314966528?s=20
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Jan 6, 2021 08:26
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This year is going to kick rear end.
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Jan 6, 2021 08:31
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Cool can we force the vote soon please for fucks sake?
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Jan 6, 2021 08:40
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Radirot posted:Cool can we force the vote soon please for fucks sake? Not until Kamala Harris is sworn in.
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Jan 6, 2021 09:00
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Small update from Georgia has Ossoff lead up to 13,000 now. It seems fair to call it once he's up to 0.3% since he's already past Biden's win margin now and continuing to build momentum with each dump. e: Beaten
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Jan 6, 2021 09:04
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Kale posted:Beaten like a Republican Senate candidate in Georgia fixt
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Jan 6, 2021 09:14
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Beaten like a rented McSally in her second election
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Jan 6, 2021 09:25
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Here is my question, that will be answered with time but I think it's good discussion. Is now the time for the republican party grumbling in the background about Mitch McConnell in the republican party to finally come out? It's all but certain that going against stimulus before November elections and then the $2000 checks has been a significant factor that cost the republican party the presidency and now the majority leadership. He might be a lightning rod that gives republicans cover, but the man is a living "Scorpion and the Frog" parable. It's in his nature to pick the evil option. And that might work when the economy is doing well and there isn't a pandemic going on. And obviously Democrats are (probably) wise to the fact that he has not an iota of good faith in his bones. He'll never honor his word or any agreements. So you can't negotiate with him at all. If you're a (theoretical) republican who can see the difference between strategy and tactics, and that there is a future outside 2 to 4 years...is now the time for the republican party to start thinking about getting a new minority leader?
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Jan 6, 2021 09:33
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Here is my question, that will be answered with time but I think it's good discussion. They are probably too craven but maybe some can be picked off to get "compromise" legislation that will be woefully inadequate done. Like some have mentioned though bring back ear marks and maybe it is a go. I am a leftist in Utah that would love Romney to bring back a few billion in solar energy funds here for local governments, and that is the kind of shot that could get done if you didn't have bullshit again "pork".
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Jan 6, 2021 09:39
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Pardon me if this is a dumb question, but why did Ossoff choose to run against Perdue but not Loeffler? How do candidates decide which seat to run for?
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Jan 6, 2021 11:20
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Here is my question, that will be answered with time but I think it's good discussion. If you replaced Mitch McConnell with another Republican leader, you would just get more obvious and fractious public infighting as they block every bill, but not a different result.
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Jan 6, 2021 11:49
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cant cook creole bream posted:Of course it will. Maybe two or three. But this lead will probably widen a bit so a recount wont do anything. I don't think so. It's looking like Ossof will be comfortably outside of the 0.5% margin (probably closer to 1.0%) once all the mail in votes are counted. There's no way for a campaign to ask for a recount once the vote is outside the 0.5% margin, unless they have proof that there were material errors in the counting process (lol good luck).
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Jan 6, 2021 14:24
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Vegetable posted:Pardon me if this is a dumb question, but why did Ossoff choose to run against Perdue but not Loeffler? How do candidates decide which seat to run for? Largely because he is young and new and willing to lose races to promote the idea that those races are contestable. Back in the completely different strategic world of two months ago, the Loeffler/Isaacson seat was the potentially winnable race. Loeffler was a soft candidate and the seat had no real incumbency advantage, and Warnock was still something of a change up pitch to go after it. Ossoff took on the other race "knowing" that he almost certainly would lose, but was building a brand as a Democrat willing to fight in the hard races and lose but by less than history would lead you to expect. Now, he's in the stronger position because his seat has a full 6 year term while Warnock will only get the remainder of Isaacson's term (2 years).
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Jan 6, 2021 14:56
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Centurium posted:Largely because he is young and new and willing to lose races to promote the idea that those races are contestable. Did anyone else go against Ossoff in the primary?
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Jan 6, 2021 15:17
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He literally repeated Joe Biden's strategy for the senate seat in Delaware, running for a position that seemed impossible to win, and pulling out a victory under extremely bizarre circumstances.
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Jan 6, 2021 15:18
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Pick posted:He literally repeated Joe Biden's strategy for the senate seat in Delaware, running for a position that seemed impossible to win, and pulling out a victory under extremely bizarre circumstances. I saw last night that he's apparently the youngest democrat elected to the senate since... Joe Biden
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Jan 6, 2021 15:23
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HappyHippo posted:I saw last night that he's apparently the youngest democrat elected to the senate since... Joe Biden Eagerly awaiting President Ossoff's election in 2068, I guess.
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Jan 6, 2021 15:26
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Eric Cantonese posted:Did anyone else go against Ossoff in the primary? Six people. The best known were the mayor of Columbus, GA and a former lt. Governor candidate.
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Jan 6, 2021 15:31
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Worth noting that Ossoff worked as an intern for John Lewis and was endorsed by him.
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Jan 6, 2021 15:40
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vyelkin posted:Eagerly awaiting President Ossoff's election in 2068, I guess. Ossoff plagarizes a Jeremy Corbyn speech in 5, 4, 3...
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Jan 6, 2021 15:45
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FMguru posted:
Conversely, this also means Bernie and Warren have veto power over pretty much everything. You're not going to see some corporate giveaway happening or other things they're not cool with because lol at the GOP actually working with the Dems on anything. It's a good day folks.
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Jan 6, 2021 16:40
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1346704658249748481 This is an interesting point I haven't seen elsewhere. I know Trump has been ramming through a lot of regressive environmental stuff the last couple of weeks, but does anyone itt know what other kinds of regulatory changes might be able to be undone by a Democratic majority in the Senate?
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Jan 6, 2021 16:52
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vyelkin posted:https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1346704658249748481 not only would they be rescinded, similar regulations could never again be passed (i am unclear on exactly how broad the ban is however)
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Jan 6, 2021 16:53
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vyelkin posted:https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1346704658249748481 CRA disapprovals are also not filibusterable, IIRC. Being able to use the Congressional Review Act to simply wave a gavel and undo much of the last year of policymaking rather than needing to do the long, complicated work of making new policy to replace it (and then litigating it all constantly) is huge.
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Jan 6, 2021 16:58
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HappyHippo posted:I saw last night that he's apparently the youngest democrat elected to the senate since... Joe Biden There's a good reason for this, sort of like it seems statistically odd that a lot of longest-reigning Western monarchs were women, but it makes sense given it's normally the result of some sort of weird conflux of other factors. If the race against Perdue had thought to be competitive, better-established (older) people would have taken the time to run for it. Joe Biden got to run when he was very, very young specifically because the idea of winning that race as a Democrat was absurd, and his win remains one of the true shocker outcomes in the last century of the Senate. But yeah, literally only Biden even wanted to run for that Senate seat from the D side, so there was no one older to go "no, me, me!!" And running against Perdue also mostly seemed like something you'd do as a resume-builder or whatever if you're young, not that you had any kind of real chance. No older Democrat with a better set of credentials would throw away what they did have to run that race.
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Jan 6, 2021 16:58
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Biden's senate run was actually done very similarly to Abrams' approach in GA this time around, which goes to show that it can work, but it's a gently caress ton of effort. Sure, you might be able to win against a popular incumbent against the overall political alignment of the state, just be prepared to shake every single hand in delaware. (However, Biden's advantage--which Ossoff did not have--is that his cause looked so hopeless that he wasn't taken seriously until it was too late.)
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Jan 6, 2021 17:02
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Pick posted:Sure, you might be able to win against a popular incumbent against the overall political alignment of the state, just be prepared to shake every single hand in delaware. There's some potential for practical application of the middle out theory in small states, if we're going to try to optimize this. Does Georgia qualify as a big state for media market purposes? It's definitely larger than Delaware.
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Jan 6, 2021 17:03
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Morrow posted:There's some potential for practical application of the middle out theory in small states, if we're going to try to optimize this. You can draw a pretty direct line from Buttigieg going whole hog on this in Iowa and him now set to join the Cabinet. Not freaking bad for a young dude from a city I hadn't even heard of.
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Jan 6, 2021 17:05
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Morrow posted:There's some potential for practical application of the middle out theory in small states, if we're going to try to optimize this. In an ideal world state parties would be recruiting people and helping them organize to run on all levels of government but parties have been focused on fundraising for a long time and its hard to break them out of the cycle.
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Jan 6, 2021 17:07
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Mooseontheloose posted:In an ideal world state parties would be recruiting people and helping them organize to run on all levels of government but parties have been focused on fundraising for a long time and its hard to break them out of the cycle. One very real problem is many county-level party members are like retired people who love fussy drama. not that i'm speaking from experience or anything 
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Jan 6, 2021 17:09
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