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Gort posted:Bashing Cuba seems to have worked out in his favour as far as Cuban voters are concerned I am curious about Texas, though. Cubans are a foregone conclusion.
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Jan 8, 2021 23:55
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Judakel posted:I am curious about Texas, though. Cubans are a foregone conclusion. From what I've read ITT, lots of Mexican-Americans in the Rio Grande valley have been there for many generations and have a FYGM attitude towards immigration (and he wasn't mentioning it much compared to 2016 anyway). Also the economy was good for most of Trump's term. And then there's the machismo factor. Pretty sure Trump did way better with Latino men than women, as with most other ethnic groups.
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Jan 9, 2021 00:27
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The Haitian posted:From what I've read ITT, lots of Mexican-Americans in the Rio Grande valley have been there for many generations and have a FYGM attitude towards immigration (and he wasn't mentioning it much compared to 2016 anyway). Also the economy was good for most of Trump's term. And then there's the machismo factor. Pretty sure Trump did way better with Latino men than women, as with most other ethnic groups. The machismo stuff that borders on racism notwithstanding, I think the FYGM makes a lot of sense. At the very least, their attitude is essentially one that all conservatives share and don't mind putting up with racism if it means they get to keep part of what they have. If they think they're downwardly mobile, this can be very persuasive.
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Jan 9, 2021 00:37
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There was also reporting on a surge of conspiracy social media material targeted at those populations.
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Jan 9, 2021 00:37
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The Haitian posted:From what I've read ITT, lots of Mexican-Americans in the Rio Grande valley have been there for many generations and have a FYGM attitude towards immigration (and he wasn't mentioning it much compared to 2016 anyway). Also the economy was good for most of Trump's term. And then there's the machismo factor. Pretty sure Trump did way better with Latino men than women, as with most other ethnic groups. My understanding is also that CBP (and other related agencies) in that area disproportionately employ Hispanic people, which means they and their families have a material interest in cracking down on immigration and pumping money into border security.
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Jan 9, 2021 00:39
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Edit : And there's also the fact that social media may well de-platform Trump permantly. Once he isnt the president, I feel it may well be game on. I really didnt expect a sitting President to actually be de-platformed. Well. Guess I was wrong?
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Jan 9, 2021 00:44
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Discendo Vox posted:There was also reporting on a surge of conspiracy social media material targeted at those populations. Can you link me to some of that? I would love to read this.
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Jan 9, 2021 00:44
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Latest PBS/ Marist poll suggest only 8% of AMERICANS and 18% of REPUBLICANS support Trump in attack on Capitol Jesus christ he's hosed https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1347674222194253825?s=20 TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 00:55 on Jan 9, 2021 |
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Jan 9, 2021 00:52
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TulliusCicero posted:Latest PBS/ Marist poll suggest only 8% of AMERICANS and 18% of REPUBLICANS support Trump in attack on Capitol But what about all the one day snap polls that said 99% of republicans were for it and that proved Trumpism wasn't going away? He's been permanently suspended from twitter, which imo, puts the final nail in any 2024 run.
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Jan 9, 2021 01:00
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Pick posted:It was a success because they won all three of those things, which was thought incredibly improbable to nearly impossible in 2019. It's time for a reevaluation of November: it was a sound success. i think it's a success that should give one pause though this set of elections had so many incredibly unique factors that i'm not sure it can ever be fully quantified, but the margins in the key races were all together too close for comfort i'm not smart enough to say what we can take away and apply to 2022, but it is clear there needs to be some kind of rebuilding and retrenchment on a national level
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Jan 9, 2021 01:01
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Did they lose a single non-Trump district seat? I think the 40 seat ‘18 majority was a mirage, and this was a market recorrection, so to speak. They won the Senate vs a real bad map, won the presidency by 7+ million votes, and maintained a House majority for a trifecta. I think the real issue was unreasonable expectations set by bad polling and the ‘18 over performance Here's an unrelated question I'd like to pose: without Twitter, does Trump become president? zoux fucked around with this message at 01:10 on Jan 9, 2021 |
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Jan 9, 2021 01:07
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zoux posted:But what about all the one day snap polls that said 99% of republicans were for it and that proved Trumpism wasn't going away? I think because it's now clear that the attempted coup was a failure, perpetrated by losers, and people generally don't want to be associated with that even if they might ideologically agree with the protests that happened just before.
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Jan 9, 2021 01:16
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zoux posted:Did they lose a single non-Trump district seat? I think the 40 seat ‘18 majority was a mirage, and this was a market recorrection, so to speak. They won the Senate vs a real bad map, won the presidency by 7+ million votes, and maintained a House majority for a trifecta. They lost Donna Shalala's seat and four Biden districts in California (counting the seat they lost when Katie Hill resigned). All of them were Republican in 2016.
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Jan 9, 2021 01:30
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TulliusCicero posted:Latest PBS/ Marist poll suggest only 8% of AMERICANS and 18% of REPUBLICANS support Trump in attack on Capitol 3% of Democrats?
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Jan 9, 2021 01:40
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Leon Sumbitches posted:I think because it's now clear that the attempted coup was a failure, perpetrated by losers, and people generally don't want to be associated with that even if they might ideologically agree with the protests that happened just before. The results of this poll, besides the toplines quoted in that tweet, are also interesting: (from here) Trump approval/disapproval: Overall: 38/58 (down from 43/52 in December) Democrats: 5/94 Republicans: 77/21 Independents: 37/57 Of that, Republicans break down 64/13/5/15 for strongly approve/approve/disapprove/strongly disapprove. Do you trust that the results of the 2020 election were accurate, or not? Yes/no Overall: 64/35 (up from 61/34 in December) Democrats: 97/2 Republicans: 25/72 Independents: 63/36 Trump supporters broke into the U.S. Capitol to disrupt the process of certifying the results of the presidential election that showed Joe Biden won. From what you´ve read or heard, do you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose the actions of the Trump supporters who broke into the U.S. Capitol? Strongly approve/approve/disapprove/strongly disapprove Overall: 3/5/20/69 Democrats: 1/3/8/88 Republicans: 7/10/36/45 Independents: 3/4/18/68 Trump supporters broke into the U.S. Capitol to disrupt the process of certifying the results of the presidential election that showed Joe Biden won. From what you´ve read or heard, do you think what happened was: Mostly a legitimate protest/mostly people acting unlawfully Overall: 23/72 Democrats: 3/96 Republicans: 47/47 Independents: 25/65 How much do you think President Trump is to blame for what happened at the U.S. Capitol: A great deal/a good amount/not very much/not at all Overall: 51/13/10/25 Democrats: 85/11/1/3 Republicans: 22/7/17/51 Independents: 45/17/11/24 When thinking about the issues that divide the nation, do you think: There is a serious threat to the future of our democracy/There is not a serious threat to the future of our democracy Overall: 81/15 Democrats: 86/12 Republicans: 85/12 Independents: 77/20 When thinking about the issues that divide the nation, do you think: Our democracy is likely to survive/Our democracy is not likely to survive Overall: 72/21 Democrats: 85/11 Republicans: 63/28 Independents: 69/24 I'm not fully sure what to make of this, and it's only one poll after all. But I'd say it's more complex than just "hey only 18% of Republicans approve of storming the Capitol, Trumpism is over." The majority of Republicans still strongly approve of Trump's presidency, three quarters of them don't trust the results of the election, they're split over whether storming the Capitol was legitimate protest, and most of them don't think Trump deserves any blame for it at all. A couple days later when it's clear the storming didn't accomplish anything and now people are dead and other people are getting arrested, most of them say "yeah I don't support it, but on the other hand Biden stole the election and storming the Capitol was legitimate protest and it isn't Trump's fault." Maybe the most interesting question are the last two, though. Vast majorities of Americans of all political persuasions think there's a serious threat to democracy, but less than two thirds of Republicans think democracy is going to survive and independents aren't that far off either. I would have liked it if they had asked what they thought was the big threat to democracy, because my bet is there would be a huge divide between Democrats saying the threat is Trump and his followers, and Republicans saying the threat is Democrats stealing elections. vyelkin fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Jan 9, 2021 |
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Jan 9, 2021 01:40
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:3% of Democrats? I think that's the infamous 3% who will say literally anything to a pollster
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Jan 9, 2021 01:53
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Judakel posted:The machismo stuff that borders on racism notwithstanding, I think the FYGM makes a lot of sense. At the very least, their attitude is essentially one that all conservatives share and don't mind putting up with racism if it means they get to keep part of what they have. If they think they're downwardly mobile, this can be very persuasive. I knew that was dicey, as I did say it was similar to other ethnic groups including everyone
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Jan 9, 2021 02:26
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Trump has officially been permabanned from Twitter
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Jan 9, 2021 02:26
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quote:How much do you think President Trump is to blame for what happened at the U.S. Capitol: I think this is probably the critical poll, as everything else is just Republicans muddying the water and blaming antifa/bad apples/misunderstandings. This is half of Republicans standing by Trump regardless of what he has done, and maybe a quarter opposing him in principle, and if this poll is representative then those are the important statistics moving forward.
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Jan 9, 2021 02:30
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The Haitian posted:Trump has officially been permabanned from Twitter I absolutely hate to say this but this does actually probably change everything. lol 
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Jan 9, 2021 02:31
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Mediterranean cultures and their New World Offspring really do have some complex cultural relationships with the machismo thing. But it's one of those things to be talked about carefully, and best by someone from those cultures in the first place. All too easily turned into some racist stereotype otherwise.
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Jan 9, 2021 03:04
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vyelkin posted:Maybe the most interesting question are the last two, though. Vast majorities of Americans of all political persuasions think there's a serious threat to democracy, but less than two thirds of Republicans think democracy is going to survive and independents aren't that far off either. I would have liked it if they had asked what they thought was the big threat to democracy, because my bet is there would be a huge divide between Democrats saying the threat is Trump and his followers, and Republicans saying the threat is Democrats stealing elections. There may also be a contingent of Republicans that see it as a threat to democracy but see that as a positive, in that they want to end democracy and establish a tyranny that enforces property rights and looks out for the rich.
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Jan 9, 2021 03:13
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Grape posted:Mediterranean cultures and their New World Offspring really do have some complex cultural relationships with the machismo thing. I'm not really in a position to speak to that and I'm just gonna leave it at that it may have been a factor in Trump's unexpected appeal. I'm not saying it's unique to certain cultures either, more of a general toxic masculinity thing. If I had to guess I'd expect it to have more to do with class than race, but I'd be interested to read your thoughts since you seem to have some knowledge.
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Jan 9, 2021 03:34
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The shift among the Hispanic electorate was quite large, too large to have a single cause probably, and notably it's a swing from 2016 and 2018. You can't explain that with "Mediterranean cultures and their New World Offspring", whatever that means.
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Jan 9, 2021 03:41
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Dante posted:The shift among the Hispanic electorate was quite large, too large to have a single cause probably, and notably it's a swing from 2016 and 2018. You can't explain that with "Mediterranean cultures and their New World Offspring", whatever that means. I didn't say that and I cited multiple likely causes. Those were another poster's words that they put in my mouth.
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Jan 9, 2021 03:47
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I thinks some folks here need to quantify what they mean by significant or large. I don't have it offhand but last I checked the Hispanic vote for Republicans on the Generic 2020 Ballot was 1-3% after consistently dropping over a decade.
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Jan 9, 2021 03:51
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Pick posted:I absolutely hate to say this but this does actually probably change everything. lol It might change things. That was a huge part of his platform and while a bunch of his online supporters will follow him to Parler or Gab or whatever, the majority won't. It gives him a far smaller audience and decreases his relevance. E: A lot of people will also just watch him on OANN or Newsmax, or the shittier segments of Fox. It's still a blow however. L. Ron DeSantis fucked around with this message at 04:30 on Jan 9, 2021 |
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Jan 9, 2021 04:28
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Anything that diminishes Trump's supporters from being able to easily segregate themselves in an echo chamber and forces them to engage with non-Trump supporters regularly is a good thing in the long run and is a necessary part of any broad de-radicalization strategy.
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Jan 9, 2021 04:37
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Dante posted:"Mediterranean cultures and their New World Offspring", whatever that means. I wasn't claiming that lol. Spanish, Portuguese (by extension Latino) Italian, and Greek cultures do have some notion of "machismo" in their cultures. People are also right to say that there's something like that everywhere of course. It's complicated, and my point was unless someone has intimate familiarity to speak on it, they really shouldn't casually ascribe it to influencing major things like elections.
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Jan 9, 2021 04:40
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:3% of Democrats? that's lower than the 6% of Democrats who told the PPP pollsters that they believed Obama was the Anti-Christ (crosstabs on page 21) that one is just so fun to visualize. Imagine being that voter. On one hand, he is the Seed of Satan, the Abomination of Desolation, the Beast who will speak great blasphemies and make war on the saints. On the other hand, I really like his healthcare plan... (realistically some amount of respondents are just noise) ronya fucked around with this message at 12:36 on Jan 9, 2021 |
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Jan 9, 2021 07:43
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ronya posted:(realistically some amount of respondents are just noise) More realistically they're old enough to have registered before the Southern Strategy and never bothered to switch it.
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Jan 9, 2021 07:56
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A significant portion of voters have no coherent politics, ask anyone who works on campaigns. These people couldn't describe their ideology to you if you asked them, and are tremendously misinformed. This will lead to people who describe themselves as Democrats but pulled the lever twice for Trump.
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Jan 9, 2021 09:38
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The more I look at the specific seats which flipped red in the House the more they seem to be traditionally Republican seats, or are verifiably swing districts that have either regularly been held by both parties, or where margins are victory are regularly in the single digits. They were mostly won by very thin margins in 2018, and were mostly LOST by very thin margins this year. The only big exception was the Minnesota 7th, where the Republicans overthrew a 30 year Democrat incumbent, but its worth noting that that district is extremely rural and that Congressman is a giant Blue Dog who voted against Trump's First Impeachment, presumably in a desperate attempt to keep that seat. Its a bummer to think a permanent Blue Seat is now almost certainly a permanent Red Seat, but that's how it goes with realignment. I think the conclusion one has to come to with the results of the House races was the same thing we've seen across the board: that when both parties are maximally energized their electorates look largely the same as they do with lesser voter turnouts, and therefore neither party has an advantage in True Battlegrounds, and Pink and Teal seats, just with Pink and Teal states like North Carolina and Michigan, tend to hold their color by thin margins rather than flip. It also brings into sharp relief what an accomplishment Georgia was to overcome that pattern. Arizona also, although I think Arizona needs more investigation to figure out exactly what went so right there, especially considering how far Mark Kelly outpaced Biden by and how they BOTH outpaced Sinema's 2018 win.
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Jan 9, 2021 12:23
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Sanguinia posted:It also brings into sharp relief what an accomplishment Georgia was to overcome that pattern. Arizona also, although I think Arizona needs more investigation to figure out exactly what went so right there, especially considering how far Mark Kelly outpaced Biden by and how they BOTH outpaced Sinema's 2018 win. I think it's as simple as this: Mark Kelly is an astronaut whose wife was shot in the head by a crazy person and was running against McSally, an electoral dumpster fire foisted upon Arizona voters.
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Jan 9, 2021 12:31
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I think it's as simple as this: Mark Kelly is an astronaut whose wife was shot in the head by a crazy person and was running against McSally, an electoral dumpster fire foisted upon Arizona voters. Kelly also seems just pretty cool generally. And I could see some votes for him punishing the GOP for not listening to the rejection of McSally the first time.
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Jan 9, 2021 13:19
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zoux posted:
I'm not going to say there would have been no chance, but I do think it would have been a very small one but for Twitter.
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Jan 9, 2021 14:45
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Pick posted:Kelly also seems just pretty cool generally. And I could see some votes for him punishing the GOP for not listening to the rejection of McSally the first time. Yeah, it was really brazen for them to appoint her to a seat that the voters had just rejected her from, and I find it really unsurprising that she lost when the voters were given a chance to reject her again, especially when the alternative was an astronaut.
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Jan 9, 2021 15:17
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Sodomy Hussein posted:A significant portion of voters have no coherent politics, ask anyone who works on campaigns. These people couldn't describe their ideology to you if you asked them, and are tremendously misinformed. This will lead to people who describe themselves as Democrats but pulled the lever twice for Trump. Some anecdotes from the campaign I ran this summer: "My dad used to be a Democrat but he has seen where this party has gone and I know how the real world works." It should be noted this is a white guy, who has a government job, in the city union, who would constantly refer to how he was related to famous Boston gangsters of yesteryear. Also, Trump might of been elected without social media because at least in 2016 the traditional media outlets gave him coverage and that acted as free advertising to him. Add that the media's misogyny to Clinton and you would get a perfect storm.
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Jan 9, 2021 15:46
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I think it's as simple as this: Mark Kelly is an astronaut whose wife was shot in the head by a crazy person and was running against McSally, an electoral dumpster fire foisted upon Arizona voters. vyelkin posted:Yeah, it was really brazen for them to appoint her to a seat that the voters had just rejected her from, and I find it really unsurprising that she lost when the voters were given a chance to reject her again, especially when the alternative was an astronaut.
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Jan 9, 2021 19:17
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