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Alfred P. Pseudonym
May 29, 2006

And when you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss goes 8-8

bawfuls posted:

I doubt it. That rule was implemented in 1894 at a time when rules were changing every year in response to play. They had only settled on 4 balls to a walk in 1889 (it was as high as 9 a decade earlier). Guys started foul bunting indefinitely and people thought "this is dumb, we need a rule against it" so they made one.

Just look at how significant some of the rule added/modified around that time were:

1893:
Pitching distance increased from 50 feet to 60 feet 6 inches.
The pitching box was eliminated and a rubber slab 12 inches by 4 inches was substituted.
The pitcher was required to place his rear foot against the slab.
The rule allowing a flat side to a bat was rescinded and the requirement that the bat be round and wholly of hard wood was substituted.

1895:
Pitching slab was enlarged to 24 inches by 6 inches.
Bats were permitted to be 2 3/4 inches in diameter and not to exceed 42 inches.
Infield-fly rule was adopted.
A held foul tip was classified as a strike.

Imagining a bunch of guys using cricket bats to bunt like 30 pitches foul until they accumulate 9 balls for a walk and having a good chuckle

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Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Alfred P. Pseudonym posted:

Imagining a bunch of guys using cricket bats to bunt like 30 pitches foul until they accumulate 9 balls for a walk and having a good chuckle

who knew the Dilscoop was over a century old

The Pussy Boss
Nov 2, 2004

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1359528543810707460

KLaw's annual farm system rankings. This is just an overview, he says he's doing detailed writeups on every team over the next few weeks. Here's his top and bottom 5:

1. Tampa Bay
2. Cleveland
3. Toronto
4. Miami
5. Arizona

26. Chicago Cubs
27. Philadelphia
28. Milwaukee
29. Oakland
30. Washington

Law has the Giants at 9th. He likes their 2020 draft and thinks this could be a top 5 system if the minor league season happens and Luciano/Ramos/Bishop actually get to play this year

Salvor_Hardin
Sep 13, 2005

I want to go protest.
Nap Ghost

Sydin posted:

The Cubs have officially broken PECOTA, they're so goddamn middling and full of guys who are a coinflip between good or terrible that PECOTA couldn't even project a proper confidence interval for them. It's more like a confidence... mesa?



I don't know what math/logic goes into those distributions but that could be a bimodal distribution which could be case if a single decision point had an outsized effect. Like, you could imagine the Angels having something like that if Mike Trout was currently being checked for an ACL injury. One distribution would be "tests are negative" and one would be "tests are positive". Since Mike Trout is worth like 8-10 wins, summing them up would give you a double-peaked histogram like that.

But there's no way to know which one is real until you check out that ACL.

Schroedinger's Trout.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

bawfuls posted:

that Braun quote sure reads like a guy who wants to play but no one wants him

The full context in the article sounds to me like he really only wants to go back to play for Milwaukee but they're uninterested without the DH in the NL.

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Sydin posted:

The full context in the article sounds to me like he really only wants to go back to play for Milwaukee but they're uninterested without the DH in the NL.
that makes sense, any other city would boo the poo poo out of him at this point

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k

The Pussy Boss posted:

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1359528543810707460

KLaw's annual farm system rankings. This is just an overview, he says he's doing detailed writeups on every team over the next few weeks. Here's his top and bottom 5:

1. Tampa Bay
2. Cleveland
3. Toronto
4. Miami
5. Arizona

26. Chicago Cubs
27. Philadelphia
28. Milwaukee
29. Oakland
30. Washington

Law has the Giants at 9th. He likes their 2020 draft and thinks this could be a top 5 system if the minor league season happens and Luciano/Ramos/Bishop actually get to play this year

shocking to see the Rangers not at the very bottom

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
Law is worthless

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Dog Faced JoJo posted:

I genuinely wonder if the 3rd strike on a foul bunt rule caused as much consternation as the runner on second when it got put in. It seems just as arbitrary and was implemented for what I assume are very similar reasons, and now it's just accepted.

Ikr

This is behind the points I’ve been trying to make

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



I'm extremely confused why Law has Cleveland that high

Their main guys are Nolan Jones/Tyler Freeman/Triston McKenzie which, while they're OK, aren't amazing or anything

Ammat The Ankh
Sep 7, 2010

Now, attempt to defeat me!
And I shall become a living legend!
Considering the last minor league season was in 2019, this year's prospect rankings are more based around a shrug and a feeling.

Take anything with a grain of salt.

Though Is till wonder how the A's ended up dipping that low.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



I mean I agree but I have never heard of anyone being high on their system

They traded away a bunch of stars but I don't recall them getting back any 'can't miss' guys

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
No minor league season means every prospect is rated as "slap dick"

KICK BAMA KICK
Mar 2, 2009

https://mobile.twitter.com/BizballMaury/status/1359537381313892353
everyone sing a song about popcorn!

Chamale
Jul 11, 2010

I'm helping!



Dog Faced JoJo posted:

I genuinely wonder if the 3rd strike on a foul bunt rule caused as much consternation as the runner on second when it got put in. It seems just as arbitrary and was implemented for what I assume are very similar reasons, and now it's just accepted.

I'm reading the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract and it talks about the early history of the game. Curveballs and stolen bases were controversial at one point, but quickly accepted as a clever way for a team to try to win. Bunting foul forever to draw a walk was immediately seen as obvious bullshit by everyone except the players who relied on it.

howe_sam
Mar 7, 2013

Creepy little garbage eaters

https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1359683946330673153
Sure, gently caress it, fine why not? Benintendi's development has stalled and if the Sox can get back any vaguely potentially useful arms I'll take it.

alpha_destroy
Mar 23, 2010

Billy Butler: Fat Guy by Day, Doubles Machine by Night
Can't remember if it was one of my OOTP saves or one of my MLB saves. But some save had Benintendi to the Royals. Saying as I can't remember, I'd hazard a guess a guess it didn't end well.

Edit: somehow both my recent OOTPs and MLB franchises ended up with Eduardo Rodriguez on the Royals. That's been mostly disappointing in both cases. So I guess I need to stop trading with the Red Sox.

alpha_destroy fucked around with this message at 03:18 on Feb 11, 2021

uggy
Aug 6, 2006

Posting is SERIOUS BUSINESS
and I am completely joyless

Don't make me judge you

alpha_destroy posted:

Can't remember if it was one of my OOTP saves or one of my MLB saves. But some save had Benintendi to the Royals. Saying as I can't remember, I'd hazard a guess a guess it didn't end well.

Edit: somehow both my recent OOTPs and MLB franchises ended up with Eduardo Rodriguez on the Royals. That's been mostly disappointing in both cases. So I guess I need to stop trading with the Red Sox.

Be Nintendo is always either worthless in ootp or a contact god

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
I was pretty high on Khalil Lee, my initial impression is that's too much to give up for 2 years of possibly declining benintendi

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
Seems like a good move for the Mets, kind of a wash for everybody else. I’m not a big Benintendi believer at all but it’s not like he’ll be a black hole in the lineup or anything

alpha_destroy
Mar 23, 2010

Billy Butler: Fat Guy by Day, Doubles Machine by Night

bewbies posted:

I was pretty high on Khalil Lee, my initial impression is that's too much to give up for 2 years of possibly declining benintendi

Same... most likely result i think is still that this is moving a bunch of inconsequential people around. But yeah, i think Lee is probably an overpay anyway.

howe_sam
Mar 7, 2013

Creepy little garbage eaters

It's been all downhill from here for Benny
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsQmZ9B9Oe8

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves
The Astros were about to go up 2-0 in the series with two road wins and then Cole let JBJ destroy him lol

Christe Eleison
Feb 1, 2010

Chamale posted:

I'm reading the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract and it talks about the early history of the game. Curveballs and stolen bases were controversial at one point, but quickly accepted as a clever way for a team to try to win. Bunting foul forever to draw a walk was immediately seen as obvious bullshit by everyone except the players who relied on it.

Garrison Keillor tells a good story about a fictional old baseball player who doesn’t hit that well but teaches himself to foul the ball off anywhere he wants to and so just hits it anywhere or at the opponents’ dugout just to stay at the plate. He gets banned from the league after he intentionally hits the umpire with foul tips two dozen times in a row.

more falafel please
Feb 26, 2005

forums poster

Cup of Hemlock posted:

Garrison Keillor tells a good story about a fictional old baseball player who doesn’t hit that well but teaches himself to foul the ball off anywhere he wants to and so just hits it anywhere or at the opponents’ dugout just to stay at the plate. He gets banned from the league after he intentionally hits the umpire with foul tips two dozen times in a row.

https://www.theringer.com/2017/2/3/16042314/baseball-mlb-npb-ham-fighters-shohei-otani-takuya-nakashima-6a0e7d22d39f

Career .233/.310/.266 hitter, but he can foul off just about anything

Chamale
Jul 11, 2010

I'm helping!



I wonder if you can quantify the value of taking longer at-bats (other than the impact of more walks and strikeouts). We know that tired pitchers perform worse, although that has to be untangled from the times-through-order penalty.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


Watch out, NL Central the cubs have signed jake marisnick.

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
A player ive long hated on the team I hate the most, good fit

El Gallinero Gros
Mar 17, 2010

Chamale posted:

I wonder if you can quantify the value of taking longer at-bats (other than the impact of more walks and strikeouts). We know that tired pitchers perform worse, although that has to be untangled from the times-through-order penalty.

If they did Tony Fernandez would be in the HOF, he was great at fighting off 2 strike counts

rickiep00h
Aug 16, 2010

BATDANCE


Chamale posted:

I wonder if you can quantify the value of taking longer at-bats (other than the impact of more walks and strikeouts). We know that tired pitchers perform worse, although that has to be untangled from the times-through-order penalty.

The value of an individual high-pitch-count PA is probably effectively meaningless unless the batter has a higher good-outcome rate with longer PAs. I think it would be something akin to RBIs where it's less of an individual predictor stat but an indicator of the team's, I dunno, "effectiveness?"

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
I like this move

https://twitter.com/jmackeypg/status/1359896173943873537?s=21

Also signed Tony Wolters on a minor league deal, which is fine

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
i was always surprised goodwin never really stuck as an MLB regular. seems like his bat is good enough to stick around a lot of MLB outfields but here he is as a ST invitee for some reason

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
His defense is pretty terrible is my understanding.

habeasdorkus
Nov 3, 2013

Royalty is a continuous shitposting motion.
Seems like a good deal for the Mets and possibly the Royals. Benny was hurt almost all of last season, but he's at least an average corner OF and possibly a very good one who's only 26.

Free Xander and Devers from the poo poo pile that is the Red Sox.

Johnny Bravo
Jan 19, 2011
Goodwin isn't great defensively but he got the job done with the Angels and his bat can be sneaky good. I would have liked to see him back in the outfield instead of trading for Fowler in all honesty

Johnny Bravo fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Feb 11, 2021

UZR IS BULLSHIT
Jan 25, 2004

Chamale posted:

I wonder if you can quantify the value of taking longer at-bats (other than the impact of more walks and strikeouts). We know that tired pitchers perform worse, although that has to be untangled from the times-through-order penalty.

Pitches per plate appearance was definitely a hot poo poo stat back when analytics was called sabermetrics

Good Dog
Oct 16, 2008

Who threw this cat at me?
Clapping Larry

Popete posted:

His defense is pretty terrible is my understanding.

When he is the replacement for Kole Calhoun in RF his defense looks bad. When he is the replacement for Justin Upton in LF he looks like a God.



PECOTA projections look hilariously off. How are the Angels an 87 win team slated for the WC-1 slot?

Tweezer Reprise
Aug 6, 2013

It hasn't got six strings, but it's a lot of fun.

UZR IS BULLSHIT posted:

Pitches per plate appearance was definitely a hot poo poo stat back when analytics was called sabermetrics

i will never stop using that cool rear end word

seiferguy
Jun 9, 2005

FLAWED
INTUITION



Toilet Rascal

FlamingLiberal posted:

I'm extremely confused why Law has Cleveland that high

Their main guys are Nolan Jones/Tyler Freeman/Triston McKenzie which, while they're OK, aren't amazing or anything

Baseball America ranked the Mariners' system #2, Law has them at #13. I could take the argument that the system is top heavy but I suppose it's a gut feeling given there weren't really any minor leagues last year.

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Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/status/1359877598646464514

lmao Kershaw hard calling out the Cubs for trading Yu for lottery tickets and I'm here for it.

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