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Shammypants
May 25, 2004

Let me tell you about true luxury.

UnfurledSails posted:

Oh god it's a long weekend isn't it? And we're already at bitcoin chat on Saturday. gently caress

The only reason a small part of my portfolio is crypto is so I can have some number changing on the weekend

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AHH F/UGH
May 25, 2002

Shammypants posted:

The only reason a small part of my portfolio is crypto is so I can have some number changing on the weekend

me rn:

Tetramin
Apr 1, 2006

I'ma buck you up.

crazypeltast52 posted:

It is just a question of throwing resources at tracking it. The number of bitcoin transactions per second is a fixed quantity and tracking it gets cheaper as processing capability improves. That no one has done the work to connect the dots yet doesn't mean that no one will or that the problem is unsolvable, especially as the dollar amounts increase.

I would not be surprised if China isn't already working on this as a way to shake down people evading capital controls.

Sure I can see that, with an extreme amount of resources you could for sure draw connections, but you’d probably need at least one known wallet address of whoever someone is sending coin to in order to trace it to like, whatever drug dealer or like an actual person. The transactions themselves are obviously traceable but figuring out the real world owner of any given wallet would require another piece of information, in my mind.

But yeah whoever posted about the ridiculous transaction processing time that will only increase the longer the transaction history gets is correct in how that alone will prevent it from being anything other than a commodity you can use to buy drugs or gamble online.

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.
So say if I purchased a stock at $100 per share and it rose to $120.

If I put in a 10% stop limit then it is impossible for me not to make money correct? Like even if there was an economic collapse, ala 2008, the share price wouldn't drop $20 in one second. Or am I missing something here?

Cacafuego
Jul 22, 2007

I wonder if this is why ARKG has been buying RHHBY lately:

Genentech Could Regain the Blindness-Related Disease Market with New Treatment | BioSpace

cosmic gumbo
Mar 26, 2005

IMA
  1. GRIP
  2. N
  3. SIP

punk rebel ecks posted:

So say if I purchased a stock at $100 per share and it rose to $120.

If I put in a 10% stop limit then it is impossible for me not to make money correct? Like even if there was an economic collapse, ala 2008, the share price wouldn't drop $20 in one second. Or am I missing something here?

It very easily can drop that much that fast.

ohnobugs
Feb 22, 2003


punk rebel ecks posted:

So say if I purchased a stock at $100 per share and it rose to $120.

If I put in a 10% stop limit then it is impossible for me not to make money correct? Like even if there was an economic collapse, ala 2008, the share price wouldn't drop $20 in one second. Or am I missing something here?

In theory yes. The stock can rip down past your limit order. You also need a buyer on the other side.

Shammypants
May 25, 2004

Let me tell you about true luxury.

Everyone is right but even Lehman Bros took a few days to drop.

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


punk rebel ecks posted:

So say if I purchased a stock at $100 per share and it rose to $120.

If I put in a 10% stop limit then it is impossible for me not to make money correct? Like even if there was an economic collapse, ala 2008, the share price wouldn't drop $20 in one second. Or am I missing something here?

What others have said, plus limit is specific only to the price you set. Even a reasonable stop limit might not execute at all. Stop order is the more pragmatic "just sell after a certain point for whatever's available" ability.

(I hesitate to use the word "option" in a stock trading thread)

The Polish Pirate
Apr 4, 2005

How many Polacks does it take to captain a pirate ship? One.
Back on stocks chat, I'm absolutely furious at Robinhood. I had some $1.50 calls on SNDL expiring on 2/12. I didn't sell the options because Robinhood TOS says they'll either sell an hour before close or they'll exercise automatically.

Come close of market, RH marked them as expiring worthlessly. I emailed support and they said the calls closed Out of The Money. WTF? SNDL was never below $1.95 all day. Also I had enough cash in my account to exercise all the contracts so I have no clue what happened.

Any suggestions other than switch from RH to another broker?

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Baddog posted:

We are lucky to live in a country where "ink on paper" is relatively strong. Most people do not. Bitcoin was created to take governments and banks out of the equation, and it does it kind of brilliantly.

Bitcoin may be "expensive" to maintain, but it's also really loving expensive to pay a government (and banks) every time you make a transaction. And that doesn't "generate any wealth" either.

I see you already brought up mixers. There's plenty of ways to hide your identity, or at least make it really hard to prove. A lot of people have spent a lot of resources trying to figure out where all those mtgox coins went, and haven't been able to recover many yet. Sure, if you don't spend *any effort* trying to hide, it's pretty easy to trace back to someone.

Bitcoin does not take government or banks out of the equation in any way, shape or form. If you think that, you don't understand government, banks or currency. Or power.

Bitcoin does not make agreements and obligations stronger than ink on paper, it just makes them more permanently recorded on computers. It doesn't help the delivering party to deliver and it doesn't help the receiving party chase the non-deliverer down. It all smacks of typical libertarian chatter which doesn't really understand how much the society they despise really helps them. If the seller doesn't deliver, then what? Is there a court of arbitration upon the summit of Mt Gox? It's either Mad Max rule of violence or it's sue them in Normal Society. I like the latter, it's a well evolved form of organization that beats anything else, even though it sucks.

About mixers, the ledger is completely deterministic but hidden, so the destination of the coins is knowable as fast as the mixer can mix. The problem is finding out who the person behind it is. Bitcoin isn't so open that it just tells you the name, but it's permanent and deterministic enough that you can put the pieces together, sooner or later.

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G

punk rebel ecks posted:

So say if I purchased a stock at $100 per share and it rose to $120.

If I put in a 10% stop limit then it is impossible for me not to make money correct? Like even if there was an economic collapse, ala 2008, the share price wouldn't drop $20 in one second. Or am I missing something here?

Lol where are you finding these? WSB right?

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

Space Fish posted:

What others have said, plus limit is specific only to the price you set. Even a reasonable stop limit might not execute at all. Stop order is the more pragmatic "just sell after a certain point for whatever's available" ability.

(I hesitate to use the word "option" in a stock trading thread)

ohnobugs posted:

In theory yes. The stock can rip down past your limit order. You also need a buyer on the other side.

Sorry, I meant to use Stop Order instead of Stop Limit in my example.

So if that $100 turned into $200, and I put a stop order for say $150, the stock could rip past the $150 and go to say $80 and I can still lose money?

Yomofo717
Nov 1, 2020
I'm really tempted to triple down on CCIV on Tuesday. I heard a lot of big investment companies just hopped on board on Friday. Like 23 bought in, 2 left according to one of the investors I watch on Youtube. Google isn't helping me confirm this though. Is there a website where you can see the stats of what the hedge funds are buying?

mightygerm
Jun 29, 2002



Yomofo717 posted:

I'm really tempted to triple down on CCIV on Tuesday. I heard a lot of big investment companies just hopped on board on Friday. Like 23 bought in, 2 left according to one of the investors I watch on Youtube. Google isn't helping me confirm this though. Is there a website where you can see the stats of what the hedge funds are buying?

Does this help? https://fintel.io/so/us/cciv

Joink
Jan 8, 2004

What if I told you cod is no longer a fish :coolfish:

punk rebel ecks posted:

Sorry, I meant to use Stop Order instead of Stop Limit in my example.

So if that $100 turned into $200, and I put a stop order for say $150, the stock could rip past the $150 and go to say $80 and I can still lose money?

You should learn the difference between a trailing stop market order and trailing stop limit order. TLDR: If the stock in question is very liquid I'd just use a trailing stop limit order.

In your example once you hit $200 and it starting falling to $150, your going to get a sell at best $150, at worst $80 IF you have a limit order set and the stock is illiquid. Also anything going from $200 down to $80 in a very quick fashion will probably be halted along the way slowing the descent. Good example why shorting is important in the stock market. It injects liquidity into socks on the way down slowing the descent due to buying to cover.

Joink fucked around with this message at 03:30 on Feb 14, 2021

Yomofo717
Nov 1, 2020

Thank you sir. You nailed it. I think this was the exact website he used in his video.

Wifi Toilet
Oct 1, 2004

Toilet Rascal

Oh God, at least 2 pension funds bought into this on Friday. Really hoping they don't get burned.

UnfurledSails
Sep 1, 2011

Any pension funds bought bitcoin yet?

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

Joink posted:

You should learn the difference between a trailing stop market order and trailing stop limit order. TLDR: If the stock in question is very liquid I'd just use a trailing stop limit order.

In your example once you hit $200 and it starting falling to $150, your going to get a sell at best $150, at worst $80 IF you have a limit order set and the stock is illiquid. Also anything going from $200 down to $80 in a very quick fashion will probably be halted along the way slowing the descent. Good example why shorting is important in the stock market. It injects liquidity into socks on the way down slowing the descent due to buying to cover.

I see. So it's unlikely that the stock will fall down that fast due to halts?

Also is this just as likely to occur with something less volatile like ETFs?

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

punk rebel ecks posted:

So say if I purchased a stock at $100 per share and it rose to $120.

If I put in a 10% stop limit then it is impossible for me not to make money correct? Like even if there was an economic collapse, ala 2008, the share price wouldn't drop $20 in one second. Or am I missing something here?
it's possible but not likely. for instance, stop orders can't execute outside of normal market hours. if the stock is at $120 and has a horrible earnings report or there's some kind of government investigation into the company that's announced when the market is closed, the stock could open below the price where your stop limit would execute. again, not likely... but technically possible

Joink
Jan 8, 2004

What if I told you cod is no longer a fish :coolfish:

punk rebel ecks posted:

I see. So it's unlikely that the stock will fall down that fast due to halts?

Also is this just as likely to occur with something less volatile like ETFs?

Index funds are not going from $200 to $80 in a few minutes. Stocks the see very high dumps....your not looking at. I'm talking stocks with a float under 5million, day traders dream.

A stop limit market order at $150 with an index fund, at worst you sell at maybe $149.50.

paternity suitor
Aug 2, 2016

Uranium 235 posted:

yeah i think the groupthink about bitcoin on SA has just never really updated. the "you can't get your money out" thing used to be true about bitcoin but it hasn't been true since 2017 at the latest

when Tesla is buying hundreds of millions of bitcoin, i think it's safe to say that there's enough liquidity in BTC to cash out a lot of money if you want

That’s true of just about every topic on SA these days, dead gay forums etc

paternity suitor
Aug 2, 2016

Supposing you’re optimistic about COVID vaccines being available to the gen pop by April what trades do you like? Think I’m rolling out of my REITs that are up 100%+ and into AAL and CCL for a reopening trade

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

Uranium 235 posted:

it's possible but not likely. for instance, stop orders can't execute outside of normal market hours. if the stock is at $120 and has a horrible earnings report or there's some kind of government investigation into the company that's announced when the market is closed, the stock could open below the price where your stop limit would execute. again, not likely... but technically possible

This is a good point. Thank you.

Joink posted:

Index funds are not going from $200 to $80 in a few minutes. Stocks the see very high dumps....your not looking at. I'm talking stocks with a float under 5million, day traders dream.

A stop limit market order at $150 with an index fund, at worst you sell at maybe $149.50.

I see. When I refer to ETFs I'm referring to stuff like ARKK, YOLO, or BETZ.

java
May 7, 2005

paternity suitor posted:

Supposing you’re optimistic about COVID vaccines being available to the gen pop by April what trades do you like? Think I’m rolling out of my REITs that are up 100%+ and into AAL and CCL for a reopening trade

I think we probably won’t see a majority of the population vaccinated until at least August. That being said, I bought a bunch of SAVE this last week and am still sitting on AAL from about three months ago. I think that honestly casinos and booze are going to do very well on the rebound, but I’ve not researched enough to be confident in any picks yet.

UnfurledSails
Sep 1, 2011

What happened to the goon who was shorting casinos last year? I recall he made a bunch of other goons happy by predicting a CZR crash to 3$ (it's now 80$ lol)

java
May 7, 2005

UnfurledSails posted:

What happened to the goon who was shorting casinos last year? I recall he made a bunch of other goons happy by predicting a CZR crash to 3$ (it's now 80$ lol)

CZR and PENN both have done ridiculously. Wish I had bought back then, but hindsight etc. MGM is the only thing I’ve got my eyes on right now.

Idiot Doom Spiral
Jan 2, 2020

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

Ephedrine rules and I strongly suggest everyone take it with a big ol cup of coffee every morning

It makes me irrationally angry. I have both pseudo and actual ephedrine on hand, and I prefer the pseudo.

MrOnBicycle
Jan 18, 2008
Wait wat?
https://www.iflscience.com/technology/bitcoin-mining-now-uses-more-electricity-than-argentina/

Man...

CompeAnansi
Feb 1, 2011

I respectfully decline
the invitation to join
your hallucination

Tetramin posted:

Bitcoin is insane, but the stuff I see goons who still like to post in bitcoin mock threads think their critiques from 2011 are still true. Don’t get me wrong it’s stupid as hell but a weird thing to fixate on

Yeah, crypto is stupid as hell, but that GBS thread is even worse. They literally just post there to hate on it and don't really have any interest in discussing it at all.

paternity suitor
Aug 2, 2016

java posted:

I think we probably won’t see a majority of the population vaccinated until at least August. That being said, I bought a bunch of SAVE this last week and am still sitting on AAL from about three months ago. I think that honestly casinos and booze are going to do very well on the rebound, but I’ve not researched enough to be confident in any picks yet.

I may just go with the JETS ETF

If Fauci and Gottlieb are more or less accurate and those who want the vaccine all have it by April, then the game becomes convincing those who are skeptical. I think summer vacations and vaccine passports will go a long way to convincing those types to get it early enough to be able to travel and attend events

bollig
Apr 7, 2006

Never Forget.
I have a lot of issues with Bitcoin but one of the main ones is that it's really hard to get any sort of reasonable analysis on it that isn't just psycho-nonsense. It's kind of like trying to read about gold but all you get are gold-bugs. At its core, Bitcoin was meant to be a political statement and it's pretty hard to get past that. Like the whole point was that fractional reserve banking was too volitile which I find to be a really astounding lack of understanding of the history of monetary economics. But I'll get back to my greater point you have to basically wade through the Dunning-Kruger version of the Venture Capitalists congratulating themselves twitter feed in order to find anything useful and even then the sample size as far as our time series is concerned is extremely small, even by contemporary standards. And even then it's all just ones and zeros. The only thing it can claim to be is just a manifestation of wasted energy.

I hope I've made my point that I find the whole exercise in theory and practice to be morally and practically loathesome. However, there are very clear patterns that can be exploited, in my opinion. I think that over the next year or so the price of bitcoin will rise to roughly 100-120k. Basically companies will have boardrooms of people shrieking about how other companies are buying bitcoin and they should too. And there will probably be a bitcoin ETF. Then I think there will be some sort of exogenous event (like Mt. Gox getting hacked) and the price will drop by two orders of magnitude over 6 months or so. I imagine this will almost certainly have something to do with Tether. I think it's easy to joke about Bitcoin being a scam or whatever, but Tether is either an insane fraud or one of the craziest money-laundering situations out there. And it is basically backing up the bulk of Bitcoin's price at this point.

Anyway, I am long MSTR/RIOT/MARA and I decided I'm giving the profits of whatever happens to some sort of climate change action funds.

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"
Nothing is going to do more for the legitimacy of Bitcoin than when a bunch of S&P companies buy at $120,000 and hold $5 billion each in their treasury, then it crashes back to $12,000, so either the Fed has to set up a special purpose pog buying vehicle to prop up the price so no one has to take the loss or regulators will have to tell companies to mark it at 10 times the market price. Maybe both!

Shammypants
May 25, 2004

Let me tell you about true luxury.

CompeAnansi posted:

Yeah, crypto is stupid as hell, but that GBS thread is even worse. They literally just post there to hate on it and don't really have any interest in discussing it at all.

I don’t understand most of it, I just throw some profits into it each year and it doubles my money. If people hate free money than they can hate. I threw several hundred into VET, a coin I know nothing about and don’t care about and I am 20% up now. Probably will be 5x by the time I exit. Maybe I lose it all. Not much different than gambling on NAK.

There are probably two camps of frothing at the mouth crypto haters.. those who focus on the use cases of coins and think it’s overblown (or unsafe, and easy to hack or manipulate) and those that just missed out making money. There’s probably some crossover too but two camps seems fair.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Anyone have a Charles Schwab offer/referral code? I’m about to open an account and someone might as well benefit from it.

tesilential
Nov 22, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

java posted:

CZR and PENN both have done ridiculously. Wish I had bought back then, but hindsight etc. MGM is the only thing I’ve got my eyes on right now.


I bought the dip on 3/18/20 and loaded up on cruises, casinos, airlines, banks, spy, Disney, etc. the worst performers are carnival and Norwegian, up 26% and 30.7%, respectively. My MGM holdings are up 85% but the stock is already higher than it was trading just before covid. The cruises are still down 50% or more from pre covid levels and I feel they have way more upside. Hell they haven’t even starting cruising again in the US. Soon as it opens they’ll pop. Also lol, just realized my best performer is Ally which is up 120% since March/April. I simply bought blue chips that were down huge from the covid crash with no real long term risk from covid except the cruise and airlines. Up 93% overall since the crash.

flowinprose
Sep 11, 2001

Where were you? .... when they built that ladder to heaven...

RCarr posted:

Anyone have a Charles Schwab offer/referral code? I’m about to open an account and someone might as well benefit from it.

I have one, but as far as I know the benefits go to the person initiating the new account. I do not believe they have any rewards for the person giving the referral.

In any case you're welcome to use mine.
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/refer-prospect.html?refrid=REFERK6A4ZTMN

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

flowinprose posted:

I have one, but as far as I know the benefits go to the person initiating the new account. I do not believe they have any rewards for the person giving the referral.

In any case you're welcome to use mine.
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/refer-prospect.html?refrid=REFERK6A4ZTMN

Alright, I’ll give it a try, thanks!

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Harminoff
Oct 24, 2005

👽

Shammypants posted:

I don’t understand most of it, I just throw some profits into it each year and it doubles my money. If people hate free money than they can hate. I threw several hundred into VET, a coin I know nothing about and don’t care about and I am 20% up now. Probably will be 5x by the time I exit. Maybe I lose it all. Not much different than gambling on NAK.

There are probably two camps of frothing at the mouth crypto haters.. those who focus on the use cases of coins and think it’s overblown (or unsafe, and easy to hack or manipulate) and those that just missed out making money. There’s probably some crossover too but two camps seems fair.

You are missing out on the people that hate it because of the insane amount of energy it uses.

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