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Craig K
Nov 10, 2016

puck

Pobrecito posted:

I'm a Texan and we have an even more insane legislative session that is a 140 day session every two years, which is just utterly hilarious for trying to run a government in the modern era (or it would be if it didn't lead to such horrifying results). It also conveniently makes it next to impossible to be in the legislature if you aren't already independently wealthy.

that poo poo feels like a relic back from when it was 140 days every two years because getting everybody together in 1830 involved horse drawn carriages and two-weeks round trip travel time

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Owlspiracy
Nov 4, 2020


yea there are issues in va but its also better today than any time in decades and im not sure wheres better in the US right now, sadly

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Rockit posted:

How is “our words were lengthy and from a lot of people ” a good rebuttal to “I can’t take your guys word it.”

That’s not pointing to y’alls crentials and why we can inherently take your word for it that’s just fallacious shitposting.

I looked at every post you made in the thread. It took no time, because you didn't post anything of substance. It boils down to just you saying "you haven't convinced me." Numerous details and explanations have been posted that are not simply "take my word for it". Your response is "nuh-uh!" Nobody cares what you believe. Post some explanation of why you disagree with it. Not just for other people: for yourself. You're going to find your position is not great when you try to actually explain it in response, the way friendbot and everyone else have been.

Why is it plain that Carter's idiot stunt was solely to be an rear end in a top hat and raise his profile, not anything about the bill? Because he didn't talk to any of the other people supporting the bill. He didn't gently caress with the meanies who were on the fence. He hosed with the people actually doing the work pushing the bill.

Why what he did is irreversible is an issue of procedure people have cogently explained and you've just decided you don't believe. Not by doing any work, research, trying to find a reason why it's not true: just declaring you don't believe it, other people have to try harder.

mandatory lesbian posted:

Im not ragging on you fwiw, im ragging on the legislators who decided petty personal beefs were more important then voting for a bill that would have helped people.

What was described is the people who were actually pushing for this bill being put by surprise, with no warning in a situation where they had to make a quick call about what path forward would be most likely to help people on all of the things they're trying to do. The details of the procedural limitations of the VA legislature (which are absurd) make it clear this is entirely 100% on lee being a dumbass.

Pobrecito
Jun 16, 2020

hasta que la muerte nos separe

Craig K posted:

that poo poo feels like a relic back from when it was 140 days every two years because getting everybody together in 1830 involved horse drawn carriages and two-weeks round trip travel time

You'd think so, wouldn't you?

But no, the current Texas Constitution was passed in 1876. Why is that significant? Oh no reason other that's when the Southern Democrats were able to take the state back over after Reconstruction ended and just about everything in the Constitution is formulated as a response to that time.

Craig K
Nov 10, 2016

puck

Pobrecito posted:

You'd think so, wouldn't you?

But no, the current Texas Constitution was passed in 1876. Why is that significant? Oh no reason other that's when the Southern Democrats were able to take the state back over after Reconstruction ended and just about everything in the Constitution is formulated as a response to that time.

extremely fair point. fucks sake at least trains existed at that point

Rockit
Feb 2, 2017

evilweasel posted:

I looked at every post you made in the thread. It took no time, because you didn't post anything of substance. It boils down to just you saying "you haven't convinced me." Numerous details and explanations have been posted that are not simply "take my word for it". Your response is "nuh-uh!" Nobody cares what you believe. Post some explanation of why you disagree with it. Not just for other people: for yourself. You're going to find your position is not great when you try to actually explain it in response, the way friendbot and everyone else have been.

Why is it plain that Carter's idiot stunt was solely to be an rear end in a top hat and raise his profile, not anything about the bill? Because he didn't talk to any of the other people supporting the bill. He didn't gently caress with the meanies who were on the fence. He hosed with the people actually doing the work pushing the bill.

Why what he did is irreversible is an issue of procedure people have cogently explained and you've just decided you don't believe. Not by doing any work, research, trying to find a reason why it's not true: just declaring you don't believe it, other people have to try harder.


What was described is the people who were actually pushing for this bill being put by surprise, with no warning in a situation where they had to make a quick call about what path forward would be most likely to help people on all of the things they're trying to do. The details of the procedural limitations of the VA legislature (which are absurd) make it clear this is entirely 100% on lee being a dumbass.
While it's fair to dunk on my posting for being lacking it's not like people properly dealt with the better ones. Even if we should just take DV and FB 100% at their word as the facts of the matter when people in good faith don't the response really shouldn't be just "Nuh-uh look at how many people agree and how long they are" at them. Like that's not saying "Here's why you see our take our opinion as 100% the facts of this issue." it's "What's wrong with you for not immediately agreeing?" Like i am hearing y'all out on some of these points....i even accept he's an prick to the DSA (even i don't take that to mean they agree with y'all on this or that inherently means you're right) and that the procedural nonsense meant a new bill couldn't be made.

Why are you focusing on Lee's being a dick when that's not what we're disputing. Like I'd called him a prick on multiple times and others advocated he be punished for it. We're just not convinced procedural limitations made it so the bill being removed was the only possible solution. FB at best only implicitly asserted this particular claim without proof if they mentioned that at all talking more about it was too late to make anything new once he hosed up.

To cut to the chase "Carter's line cutting was disruptive and poo poo" and "It was so disruptive and time consuming that throwing the bill over was the only option." are two separate claims with two separate standards of proof in my mind. I can generally believe the former just from an good faith witness but the latter needs an explanation.

Rockit fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Feb 19, 2021

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
The most obvious explanation for why he would choose the strategy he did is that he did not believe they would give it a vote. the most obvious explanation for why a bunch of people voted against it is that they would have never voted for it in the first place. The point of contention is the claim that this is all his fault.

PerniciousKnid
Sep 13, 2006

Discendo Vox posted:

Again, the order of votes allows deliberation and vote trading. An item being later in the docket gives its supporters more leverage through earlier votes. This is what legislative deliberation is. We can't prove the bill would've passed because Carter sabotaged it.

We are pissed about Carter because, yes, him doing this was loving insane, burned his remaining bridges, and has no sensical explanation other than self-promotion to people who don't understand how the legislature works.

This doesn't really make any sense to me. If you're debating a bill about which district gets the money and jobs for a new government building or power plant or something, then sure, you need to do some horse-trading. But RTW is strictly about the power relationship between union workers and the wealthy, so the only reason you would need to be persuaded is that you naturally lean toward screwing workers for the wealthy. It seems ridiculous to look at this situation, where the majority of Democrats need to be pulled over to the side of supporting workers, and say that Lee Carter deserves all the blame for not persuading them correctly. Even if you think he muffed the tactics.

Rockit
Feb 2, 2017

Harold Fjord posted:

The most obvious explanation for why he would choose the strategy he did is that he did not believe they would give it a vote. the most obvious explanation for why a bunch of people voted against it is that they would have never voted for it in the first place. The point of contention is the claim that this is all his fault.
Forgive me for being presumptuous but their confidence in their expertise probably means they don't want to think and deal with a co-worker who is just misguided cynical rather the selfish kind.

"It's clear to us that congress could be convinced so it can't be he thinks they're aren't." Even if you're right being an fellow leftist isn't an path to always read the room or be free from non-government doomer influences.

Also as someone who's supposed to be on your side gets their flaws and dickness highlighted and gets judged irrationally(But not nesscirly incorrectly) based on that.
Hence the posts going "You're just denying he did anything wrong and people aren't mad at him." even if they have other evidence the past history in itself is a big factor.

Maybe he's just dumb enough to piss off a bad system when it's wrong to do so rather than trying to stabback others for his own glory.

Rockit fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Feb 19, 2021

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Harold Fjord posted:

The most obvious explanation for why he would choose the strategy he did is that he did not believe they would give it a vote. the most obvious explanation for why a bunch of people voted against it is that they would have never voted for it in the first place. The point of contention is the claim that this is all his fault.

that's not the most obvious explanation why he chose the strategy he did. the obvious explanation is he's a dumb terminally online jackass who doesn't care about the issue and just wants to get attention

had he actually believed they would not give it a vote and this was part of a strategy, it would not be done by surprise. he'd say "i want a vote by x day, or i'm going to pull this stunt". people in favor of repealing right to work, his co-sponsors, would be aware this was going to happen, and would be able to plan ahead. people who might have been on the fence and perhaps leaning towards burying it in committee without a vote would need to consider how they wanted to vote when forced, and been open to persuasion and/or considered that if it was properly brought to a vote they would be hard-pressed to vote against even if they wanted to.

if there is a strategy behind it - which given that lee's a fuckin moron is a real assumption here - try to explain it coming by surprise to everyone as anything but a strategy to maximize the chance it failed with the largest number of people to run against as traitors. i'll wait.

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



Yeah man, occam's razor says that he's stupid, and dumb, and a poopy head, and that's why my extremely bad faith take has to be taken seriously as the only possible explanation.

Rockit
Feb 2, 2017

evilweasel posted:

that's not the most obvious explanation why he chose the strategy he did. the obvious explanation is he's a dumb terminally online jackass who doesn't care about the issue and just wants to get attention

had he actually believed they would not give it a vote and this was part of a strategy, it would not be done by surprise. he'd say "i want a vote by x day, or i'm going to pull this stunt". people in favor of repealing right to work, his co-sponsors, would be aware this was going to happen, and would be able to plan ahead. people who might have been on the fence and perhaps leaning towards burying it in committee without a vote would need to consider how they wanted to vote when forced, and been open to persuasion and/or considered that if it was properly brought to a vote they would be hard-pressed to vote against even if they wanted to.

if there is a strategy behind it - which given that lee's a fuckin moron is a real assumption here - try to explain it coming by surprise to everyone as anything but a strategy to maximize the chance it failed with the largest number of people to run against as traitors. i'll wait.

"Only people who do things the right way actually care about things" is Dore-tier sophistry. People can put a hole lot of effort and good intetions into bad and counter-productive strategies.

He's not selfish you're just offended at his stupidity and thinks it's better to counter-cancel him than actually take him aside and talk to him.

To be fair maybe that already happened. While it's possible that people may need to try harder it's just as likely he's an stubborn rear end in a top hat who wouldn't listen. But going to the most malicious framing of his actions isn't the way to combat him even if his fuckups hurt like a bitch IMHO.

Rockit fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Feb 19, 2021

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Rockit posted:

"Only people who do things the right way actually care about things" is Dore-tier sophistry. People can put a hole lot of effort and good intetions into bad and counter-productive strategies.

He's not selfish you're just offended at his stupidity and thinks it's better to counter-cancel him than actually take him aside and talk to him.

To be fair maybe that already happened. While it's possible that people may need to try harder it's just as likely he's an stubborn rear end in a top hat. But going to the most malicious framing of his actions isn't the way to combat him even if his fuckups hurt like a bitch IMHO.

try to come up with even a stupid but well-meaning rationale for doing it by surprise

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
you'll note that I already did that. I didn't claim he's a political genius. What's the source on this being a surprise to everyone but him by the way? The locals have been surprisingly recalcitrant to share anything but their personal statements on this, and stuff about the legislative structure. But you seem very sure of this so I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

Harold Fjord fucked around with this message at 04:32 on Feb 19, 2021

Rockit
Feb 2, 2017

evilweasel posted:

try to come up with even a stupid but well-meaning rationale for doing it by surprise

He being an IT guy and not a lawyer underestimated how big a shake up it is.

He apparently summitted a bill that would have made the "Frivolous lawsuit" strawman real. It's clear just because you're on the left doesn't mean you actually know how lawmaking works....given that FB admits that a lot of people are unprofessional i don't see why Lee can't be one of them.

Also i do count "having terminal online-based cynicism on his co-workers" as an rationale too.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Rockit posted:

He being an IT guy and not a lawyer underestimated how big a shake up it is.


He's been an elected official for a few years now. I think it is reasonable to expect him to understand some of the in's and out's of Virginia's legislative process. Or, at the very least, have staff and/or advisors who can put actions like this into context and allow him to not make uninformed, unforced errors.

e: or, to put it another way: I don't find "he means well, but he just doesn't understand the system" to be a compelling argument in his favor.

Rockit
Feb 2, 2017

How are u posted:

He's been an elected official for a few years now. I think it is reasonable to expect him to understand some of the in's and out's of Virginia's legislative process. Or, at the very least, have staff and/or advisors who can put actions like this into context and allow him to not make uninformed, unforced errors.

e: or, to put it another way: I don't find "he means well, but he just doesn't understand the system" to be a compelling argument in his favor.

Forgive for being cynical enough to believe a politician can stay stupid for 2 years especially if his stubbornness alienates nay-sayers.

Pobrecito
Jun 16, 2020

hasta que la muerte nos separe

evilweasel posted:

that's not the most obvious explanation why he chose the strategy he did. the obvious explanation is he's a dumb terminally online jackass who doesn't care about the issue and just wants to get attention

had he actually believed they would not give it a vote and this was part of a strategy, it would not be done by surprise. he'd say "i want a vote by x day, or i'm going to pull this stunt". people in favor of repealing right to work, his co-sponsors, would be aware this was going to happen, and would be able to plan ahead. people who might have been on the fence and perhaps leaning towards burying it in committee without a vote would need to consider how they wanted to vote when forced, and been open to persuasion and/or considered that if it was properly brought to a vote they would be hard-pressed to vote against even if they wanted to.

if there is a strategy behind it - which given that lee's a fuckin moron is a real assumption here - try to explain it coming by surprise to everyone as anything but a strategy to maximize the chance it failed with the largest number of people to run against as traitors. i'll wait.

Carter, a self-described socialist running an anti-corporate, pro-worker campaign for governor, asked the Democratic-led House to allow his bill to be released from the House Labor and Commerce Committee and brought to the floor for a vote, initiating a direct confrontation with party leaders who seem content to allow the bill to die another silent death.

“I’ve introduced this bill for the last three years running and its fate in both of the previous years has been to die at crossover without a recorded vote,” Carter said.

https://www.virginiamercury.com/blog-va/va-house-leaders-block-lee-carters-effort-to-force-vote-on-right-to-work-repeal/

Seems pretty clear that his though process is "they refuse to even bring this to a recorded committee vote every time I file the bill" and he devised a strategy to force a vote to try and get it to the floor for a full vote on the bill.

Seems like a pretty valid strategy to me. Is your counterargument to this strategy that it possibly catching them off guard (which has yet to be documented anywhere in the thread other than poster's conjecture) forced them to vote against the bill?

"Oops I didn't realize this bill was coming to a vote. I'm actually for repealing right to work legislation, but egads I had no idea you were going to ask for this vote, Lee, so I must vote against it even though I totally do want to repeal RTW. Pinky promise."

Pobrecito fucked around with this message at 06:54 on Feb 19, 2021

Dett Rite
Oct 24, 2019

by Fluffdaddy

evilweasel posted:

try to come up with even a stupid but well-meaning rationale for doing it by surprise

"The last several times this happened, the legislature killed the idea in committee out of fear of having to be on record voting it down. Perhaps if they have to be on record, they will be more reticent."

It's stupid, in that it assumes a Democratic legislature feels any pangs of fear or conscience on proclaiming themselves in support of Right To Work legislation. But it is a strategy with a more realistic route to success than hoping that this time, the people whose campaigns are funded by their support of Right to Work will decide to let it pass, because Lee Carter is being such a well-behaved boy this year.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

evilweasel posted:

What was described is the people who were actually pushing for this bill being put by surprise, with no warning in a situation where they had to make a quick call about what path forward would be most likely to help people on all of the things they're trying to do. The details of the procedural limitations of the VA legislature (which are absurd) make it clear this is entirely 100% on lee being a dumbass.

Well no, the original explanation was this

friendbot2000 posted:

They won't and I will tell you why. Lee Carter hosed it. He has poo poo on every single one of his allies and made zero friends in the statehouse. He pulled some performative bullshit to get his Right to Work Repeal put at the head of the line in committee without getting cosigners and allies to sign on to it. It says "gently caress YOU" to your colleagues and caucus leadership and wins you no loving votes. He told some of his cosigners to basically gently caress themselves by doing this procedural committee wank-off. And guess what? That bill is dead now just so Lee Carter can say "YOU SEE, THEY ARE BAD SUCCLIBS".

axeil posted:

Personal relationships actually matter at this level and being an absolute rear end in a top hat to everyone is why poo poo doesn't happen. This is being an absolute rear end in a top hat to your friends and allies in the Legislature for no goddamn reason not "so and so didn't get invited to a Congressional party so they'll spike your legislation". This is actual stuff that matters in the Legislature. Why would you stick your neck out and take a tough vote for a guy who acts like that?


That Carter made people mad and that they very reasonably killed the bill to spite him and teach him a lesson. It was only after pages of discussion over how this makes no sense and is absurd, that people realized how bonkers they sounded insisting that it's totally normal to toss their principles and side with businesses against millions of working people because they're mad about some office politics slight.

That's when this new vague handwavey explanation appeared on the fly, that somehow once someone does a parliamentary no-no, that you can't vote to repeal RTW or other people will kill your Puppies for Orphans bill out of spite. There's nothing really to back this up besides "trust me" and a healthy dose of smugness, and I'm skeptical of a new explanation concocted after the old one fell apart, so I don't think it's unreasonable to want something besides someone's word that the Puppies For Orphans bill would die if Democrats didn't vote for RTW. And this new explanation doesn't seem to solve the problem either. Even if Carter was a dumb rear end in a top hat, if the obstacle is leadership getting so angry about parliamentary procedure that they demand everyone not only gently caress workers but also threaten to gently caress over puppies and orphans and every other important bill if you don't help them gently caress workers, they sound like the way bigger assholes. How is any of that an acceptable response.

Especially when the bill was killed in committee twice before, idk maybe if you don't want people to force a vote on important issues, don't purposely refuse to vote on them for years? That seems like an obvious slight and a stupid politics move too if you want people to like and trust you with their legislation (unless, of course, killing it was the goal, and people are angry that they were forced to vote to kill on record it rather than letting it die quietly and acting like they have no idea why it never came up)

Idk I'm inherently skeptical of reasons that politicians just have to coincidentally side with big business, when they clearly are able to choose otherwise. This discussion reminds me of when California got a Dem trifecta a few years ago and it looked like all those healthcare bills Schwarzenegger kept vetoing would finally pass, but magically it instantly became impossible to ever get healthcare out of committee for very serious and vital procedural reasons that no one could explain but were confident existed. And it was similar too because when some legislators did force a floor vote, they instantly became the scapegoats for the whole thing. The leadership and all the legislators actually killing the bills in committee were blameless, they can't help it, bills are impossible to pass, procedure! But the people actually trying were labeled as bad and rude and not team players, and of course it would have passed if they had been patient but they weren't so it's all their fault. Of course years later, no healthcare bill ever passed, so patience obviously didn't work, and now millions of Californians lost their jobs and healthcare in a pandemic, so maybe waiting until half-past-never to get healthcare out of committee wasn't wise, almost makes you wonder if the leadership ever really wanted one to pass in the first place...

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Feb 19, 2021

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.
This sounds basically like a microcosm of what people figured out about Obama and why leftists have no patience for Biden's bullshit.

It's a false economy: it's very clear that no matter how well-behaved leftists are and how much they adhere to :decorum: and kiss the asses of ancient centrist ghouls, they're never actually going to get anything in return for it when the donors start throwing tantrums. 'Political capital' isn't real.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

I'd be a lot more willing to believe he's just a stupid jerk if the bill hadn't been quietly killed in committee twice already. Trying to kick the football the second time Lucy pulls it away is already dumb, how dumb do you have to be to believe her a third time.

Seems like a Catch-22: sit quietly so we can put working people at the bottom of the schedule and then "fail to get to them" yet again, or demand they get a hearing this time and we call you rude and tsk tsk now we have to spitefully side with business against workers because you couldn't sit still.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006
For the people still trying to argue Lee is innocent in all this:

why do you do this without even informing the co-sponsors of your bill?

Owlspiracy
Nov 4, 2020


VitalSigns posted:

I'd be a lot more willing to believe he's just a stupid jerk if the bill hadn't been quietly killed in committee twice already. Trying to kick the football the second time Lucy pulls it away is already dumb, how dumb do you have to be to believe her a third time.

Seems like a Catch-22: sit quietly so we can put working people at the bottom of the schedule and then "fail to get to them" yet again, or demand they get a hearing this time and we call you rude and tsk tsk now we have to spitefully side with business against workers because you couldn't sit still.

well 2 of those years the committees were controlled by Republicans, so lets look at 2020: it made it through two committees but died in appropriations after the Virginia Economic Development Partnership provided some data about fiscal implications here: https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/legp604.exe?201+oth+HB153F122+PDF&201+oth+HB153F122+PDF in the Impact Statement and was tabled without holding a vote

Specifically:

quote:

The proposed legislation repeals the “right to work” law in Virginia.
The Virginia Economic Development Partnership (VEDP) has raised concerns related to the
impact this may have on its capacity to attract future business deals to the Commonwealth.
According to VEDP, the “right to work” status of states represents an important site-selection
factor for corporate executives and site-selection consultants who advise companies on
selecting sites for new economic development projects. Area Development annually surveys
corporate executives and site consultants on factors that impact location decisions. In their
most recent survey published in 2019, more than 70% of corporate executives and more than
78% of site-selection consultants indicated it is “important” or “very important” for a state to
have “right to work” for location decisions.
Site-selection consultants and businesses have communicated to VEDP that this change in
policy would impact Virginia's competitiveness for economic development projects,
primarily in the manufacturing and supply chain sectors. Prospects and site consultants
typically want to know Virginia’s position on “right to work” early in the selection process.
Many manufacturing prospects only will consider new locations in “right to work” states.
Over the previous 18 months, Virginia announced nearly 60 projects in the manufacturing
and supply chain sectors that represented 8,400 jobs and $6 billion in capital investment.
VEDP believes many of these announcements would not have occurred if Virginia were not a
“right to work” state at the time the companies made their location decisions.
VEDP is currently working on 349 potential projects in the manufacturing and supply chain
sectors with more than 37,000 total jobs and more than $11 billion in capital investment.
Many manufacturing and supply chain companies and the site-selection consultants who
serve them will only consider “right to work” states for new investments. That reality plus
the long-held “right to work” status of Virginia means that, even in cases where VEDP may
not be explicitly asked about “right to work,” companies and site consultants often have
“right to work” status as a location requirement. In some cases, it also is explicitly stated
during the selection process. Based on the feedback of site-selection consultants, VEDP's
position is that Virginia's competitiveness for these potential projects will be materially
compromised if an outright repeal of “right to work” were to advance.
Virginia is the northern most “right to work” state on the East Coast. States to our southern
border represent the state's primary competition for economic development projects. This is
especially true for manufacturers the state has attracted to smaller metro and rural areas.
“Right to work” states include North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee and
Alabama.
VEDP conservatively estimates that repeal of Virginia’s “right to work” status would result
in the loss of new project announcements representing thousands of manufacturing and
supply chain jobs, particularly in rural and small metro areas, and that the Commonwealth
would lose approximately $9-25 million in state general fund revenue per year from our
current prospect pipeline, a loss of revenue that would grow over time as Virginia is not
considered for future projects or is not selected due to changes in its “right to work” status.
Finally, it is not certain what impact elimination of the “right to work” law may have on the
cost of services procured by the Commonwealth. Changes in employee/employer
relationships may result in changes to labor costs that would be passed to customers like the
Commonwealth in contracts for services especially as it relates to capital construction
projects and road building projects. Any cost impacts to the Commonwealth are
indeterminate at this time.

the real question is 'was the 2021 effort similarly going to die and instead Lee was ok to do some performative bullshit since it wouldn't matter anyway' or was there a chance he and his cosponsors could've lobbied the rest of the caucus for support. the latter seems to get less clicks on twitter so :welp: we'll never know.

its the same with his stupid vanity run for governor which is going to end in a brutal defeat: either he truly believes he could win and he's hopelessly naive, or he cares more about scoring points than building relationships and bridges. and lol at the number of people donating to him, like, come on.

Owlspiracy fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Feb 19, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

OK so you posted a report that said repealing RTW is bad and would cost jobs and drive manufacturing out of Virginia, and that this excuses killing it in committee.

Kinda supports my suspicion that they didn't want it to pass if they believed it is bad and would cost jobs and would drive manufacturing out of Virginia, no? That sounds bad I sure don't want to kill jobs and drive away manufacturing gosh!

:rolleyes:
Apr 2, 2002
For a certain forum contingent, it's very convenient that Lee Carter is the only good guy railing against the entrenched Dem machine, because it establishes that nothing good can practically be done - after all, Lee's bill got killed by 4:1 margins, so what's the point of depending on Dems to do anything? - and raging about it online while pointing at the succlibs as the problem was the correct answer all along.

It can't be that the activists who got Lee elected to begin with are right. It can't be that the DSA is right. It can't possibly be that being a jackass to your colleagues is bad (that would really put a dent in posting being praxis). No, it's extremely important that Lee, the epitome of personal and professional life trainwreck, is entirely correct and it is everyone else who is wrong. PrincipalSkinner.jpg must obviously be the right answer, never mind any self reflection.

Meanwhile, VA has passed enough bills that are both important and unequivocally Good that the state government can be said to be reforming faster than almost any other state jurisdiction. Progressives have likely won more outright wins in VA than everywhere else in 2020-21, including places 20 points bluer than VA. The list of wins posted earlier ITT would have been genuinely impressive for California, never mind a state with a 1-2 vote state legislative majority. But they didn't back a bill that would have destroyed the legislative calendar with a truly ridiculous set of procedural hurdles, so everyone involved is a succlib except for Lee Carter, who is Cool and Good because he forced a losing vote.

When Lee goes on to finish fifth in the primary, the same people will donate money to his podcast because at the end of the day, the entire role of Principal Skinner as a character is to never change.

Owlspiracy
Nov 4, 2020


VitalSigns posted:

OK so you posted a report that said repealing RTW is bad and would cost jobs and drive manufacturing out of Virginia, and that this excuses killing it in committee.

Kinda supports my suspicion that they didn't want it to pass if they believed it is bad and would cost jobs and would drive manufacturing out of Virginia, no? That sounds bad I sure don't want to kill jobs and drive away manufacturing gosh!

no, i posted an explanation of why the bill died in committee in 2020, which was the only year that it had a realistic chance of passing. it died because of a report which spoke to fiscal concerns. the question then is "has lee carter lobbied and horsetraded enough over the last year to overcome the concerns the less progressive democrats on the appropriations committee that led to the bill being tabled in 2020" and it seems that we'll never know because he instead decided to give up on passing the bill to score some sort of symbolic victory. or he was stupid enough to think forcing a vote would work.

(btw i would say he definitely could've overcome those concerns, considering the huge slate of other progressive legislation that has passed, despite Virginia democrats being ostensibly centrist)

Owlspiracy fucked around with this message at 17:04 on Feb 19, 2021

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

:rolleyes: posted:

For a certain forum contingent, it's very convenient that Lee Carter is the only good guy railing against the entrenched Dem machine, because it establishes that nothing good can practically be done - after all, Lee's bill got killed by 4:1 margins, so what's the point of depending on Dems to do anything? - and raging about it online while pointing at the succlibs as the problem was the correct answer all along.

It can't be that the activists who got Lee elected to begin with are right. It can't be that the DSA is right. It can't possibly be that being a jackass to your colleagues is bad (that would really put a dent in posting being praxis). No, it's extremely important that Lee, the epitome of personal and professional life trainwreck, is entirely correct and it is everyone else who is wrong. PrincipalSkinner.jpg must obviously be the right answer, never mind any self reflection.

Meanwhile, VA has passed enough bills that are both important and unequivocally Good that the state government can be said to be reforming faster than almost any other state jurisdiction. Progressives have likely won more outright wins in VA than everywhere else in 2020-21, including places 20 points bluer than VA. The list of wins posted earlier ITT would have been genuinely impressive for California, never mind a state with a 1-2 vote state legislative majority. But they didn't back a bill that would have destroyed the legislative calendar with a truly ridiculous set of procedural hurdles, so everyone involved is a succlib except for Lee Carter, who is Cool and Good because he forced a losing vote.

When Lee goes on to finish fifth in the primary, the same people will donate money to his podcast because at the end of the day, the entire role of Principal Skinner as a character is to never change.

Speaking of the primary, a poll came out today for the VA Gov primary. Shocking no one, T-Mac is way out in front.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1362781652892712968?s=19

A bit sad to see Foy only at 4% though as she'd be my natural choice without T-Mac in the race.

Owlspiracy
Nov 4, 2020


axeil posted:

Speaking of the primary, a poll came out today for the VA Gov primary. Shocking no one, T-Mac is way out in front.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1362781652892712968?s=19

A bit sad to see Foy only at 4% though as she'd be my natural choice without T-Mac in the race.

that 49% undecided will break 99:1 for lee carter, therefore he'll easily win :smug:

also this entire thing hinges on multiple people, including myself, saying that when it comes to local politics, ideological positions are much more fluid, and its less the case of someone being ideologically consistent and more the case of someone having 1 or 2 pet issues and trading support to get their issues to the floor. there isn't some writ in stone opposition to repealing RTW - an effective legislator in VA's current legislative environment could very likely have gotten it repealed by forming relationships with their colleagues, similar to many other quite progressive bills that have passed, including minimum wage increases, criminal justice reform, marijuana legalization, etc. etc.

Owlspiracy fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Feb 19, 2021

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Aruan posted:

that 49% undecided will break 99:1 for lee carter, therefore he'll easily win :smug:

also this entire thing hinges on multiple people, including myself, saying that when it comes to local politics, ideologically positions are much more fluid, and its less the case of someone being ideologically consistent and more the case of someone having 1 or 2 pet issues and trading support to get their issues to the floor. there isn't some writ in stone opposition to repealing RTW - an effective legislator in VA's current legislative environment could very likely have gotten it repealed by forming relationships with their colleagues, similar to many other quite progressive bills that have passed, including minimum wage increases, criminal justice reform, marijuana legalization, etc. etc.

Speaking of ideological consistency, here's a great example:

https://twitter.com/vaplan2018/status/1362756157195104258?s=19

McClellan (the same one that's running for Gov) has a bill in the house to allow mental health-related testimony in criminal trials without an insanity plea. It got killed when an otherwise progressive Dem voted with the GOP to table it.

I have no idea why he voted to table this but these are the kinds of weird, idiosyncratic, orthogonal-to-ideology things that happen in state and local government.

Dett Rite
Oct 24, 2019

by Fluffdaddy

axeil posted:

Speaking of ideological consistency, here's a great example:

https://twitter.com/vaplan2018/status/1362756157195104258?s=19

McClellan (the same one that's running for Gov) has a bill in the house to allow mental health-related testimony in criminal trials without an insanity plea. It got killed when an otherwise progressive Dem voted with the GOP to table it.

I have no idea why he voted to table this but these are the kinds of weird, idiosyncratic, orthogonal-to-ideology things that happen in state and local government.

Wow, Virginia Democrats voting with Republicans in order to prevent progressive legislation from getting a public vote?

How weird, idiosyncratic, and orthagonal to ideology.

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VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Aruan posted:

no, i posted an explanation of why the bill died in committee in 2020, which was the only year that it had a realistic chance of passing. it died because of a report which spoke to fiscal concerns. the question then is "has lee carter lobbied and horsetraded enough over the last year to overcome the concerns the less progressive democrats on the appropriations committee that led to the bill being tabled in 2020" and it seems that we'll never know because he instead decided to give up on passing the bill to score some sort of symbolic victory. or he was stupid enough to think forcing a vote would work.

(btw i would say he definitely could've overcome those concerns, considering the huge slate of other progressive legislation that has passed, despite Virginia democrats being ostensibly centrist)

so Lee Carter is a politics genius who convinced everyone to change their minds on the bill but also an incompetent moron who tricked them into changing their minds back again at the last second

mk, sure let's go with that why not

Owlspiracy
Nov 4, 2020


VitalSigns posted:

so Lee Carter is a politics genius who convinced everyone to change their minds on the bill but also an incompetent moron who tricked them into changing their minds back again at the last second

mk

did you even read my post. we have no idea if lee carter convinced anyone of anything because he took the bill behind the proverbial woodshed and shot it in the head before it even had a chance. I think he could’ve convinced people because someone convinced a lot of tobacco district Dems to support marijuana legalization but well never know will we.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

or maybe he didn't succeed in convincing him and they were never planning to bring it up for a vote in the first place, and the reason they voted it down when he forced a vote is because that's what they wanted all along

Owlspiracy
Nov 4, 2020


then why was it a surprise to his co sponsors who presumably were also lobbying for the bill?

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Dett Rite posted:

Wow, Virginia Democrats voting with Republicans in order to prevent progressive legislation from getting a public vote?

How weird, idiosyncratic, and orthagonal to ideology.

Considering this guy wrote the bail reform bill with Creigh Deeds (that just passed), is onboard with paid family leave bills, and is the guy who wrote the death penalty abolition bill your framing is incorrect.

https://twitter.com/LegalAidJustice/status/1362761489589936131?s=20

https://twitter.com/mikemullin4VA/status/1362507957754298378?s=20

https://twitter.com/vaplan2018/status/1362155244478746624?s=20

Owlspiracy
Nov 4, 2020


like, this isn't that complicated. lee carter doesn't like the rest of what is ostensibly his party (cept not really, he just caucuses with them) and enjoys talking poo poo about them on twitter. so be it, he's not wrong, but the price of him pursuing that means he has no means to pass his legislative agenda, which sucks

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Aruan posted:

then why was it a surprise to his co sponsors who presumably were also lobbying for the bill?

idk, maybe poor strategy

people also cosponsor bills they don't support all the time in order to get votes and fundraising. Kamala Harris cosponsored Medicare For All.

that's why I asked for more details rather than blaming everything on one guy because that narrative seems off and so far we only have on guy's word that it was all Carter taking everyone by surprise and forcing them to vote against working people.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Ballz posted:

With Lee running for governor, does that mean he's abdicating re-election to his House district? Or can he run for both and once his gubernatorial campaign inevitably flames out he focuses back on his House race?

I ask because I feel like he's still vulnerable from a halfway decent GOP challenger, and I don't know how a Dem primary would swing. I worry that some typical corporate Dem will primary him from the right, when ideally another solid progressive would be the best choice. But I can only imagine a non-Lee progressive would run if he himself is not running for re-election.


This got lost in all the Lee Carter discord, I am just curious what his quixotic gubernatorial run means for House seat. Is he still able to run for re-election? Does the GOP stand a chance of winning it back after losing it four years ago? Is there anyone aiming to primary Lee again?

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Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.
Also seems like there's an extremely obvious agenda in framing the one progressive firebrand as obviously unreasonable and stupid.

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