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Tzen
Sep 11, 2001

Paradoxish posted:

Nowhere in the US even attempted a real lockdown and you know it. There was never any hope that NY's restrictions would achieve the same results as the lockdowns in New Zealand, Victoria, or Wuhan. I'm not even convinced that US restrictions outside of school closures accomplished anything at all since there's plenty of data showing that restaurant traffic remained solidly suppressed long after restrictions were lifted in most places.

No one in this thread is delusional enough to think that there's going to be a real national lockdown to crush this. Everyone posting is just frustrated because it's existentially terrifying to witness a public policy failure at this scale.
Yeah. It loving sucks badly. Oh cool a recent example of this,
lol

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Happy Thread
Jul 10, 2005

by Fluffdaddy
Plaster Town Cop

Gunshow Poophole posted:

no it didn’t cam we stop with this fuckin pcr cycle nonsense lol you dipshits falling for CHUD memes never ceases to amaze

Thank you for this informative point by point rebuttal, very compelling stuff

Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

Happy Thread posted:

Thank you for this informative point by point rebuttal, very compelling stuff

I cannot for the life of me find any og source material for the PCR claim. I looked high, I looked low, and came away frustrated because it is otherwise a nice clean explanation. Have you seen something specific?

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

SchnorkIes posted:

Aren't they not really following the case curve?

they are on the national level yeah.

peak 1 wk avg deaths was 24 days ago, and deaths have decreased about 40% in that time.

peak cases was about 40 days ago. 24 days since then, cases decreased about 40%

now that vaccines have already rolled out at least one dose to those most likely to die, I'm expecting deaths to out pace the case fall. a good thing!

I'm also expecting the unvaccinated school kids to infect their unvaccinated parents more and more as in person school continues, and we will start seeing proportional increases in every demo below 65+ year olds. this is already happening at least in Florida.

Tzen
Sep 11, 2001

Epic High Five posted:

Trump was definitely a dumpster fire but if you're living in a solid blue that that did a 180 overnight on COVID measures because now opening up helps one of Their Guys, you're in a whole lot more danger than if Trump had won and they still had to performatively resist lmao

at least here in red america I'm at the same baseline level of hosed as I've always been
Yeah it loving sucks badly to be in this situation in a blue state. I had just went grocery shopping before the store closed and on my way home saw a bar with outdoor seating. The tables themselves are six feet apart, but not the chairs and patrons. LOL LIKE SIX FEET loving MATTERS gently caress And I see a table with 4 people drinking beers, no masks on. 4-6 feet away, another table with 4 people drinking laughing talking maskless, etcetera etcetera for the entire length of the building. Of course this is patio seating which is directly next to the sidewalk. A sidewalk that in that moment had people walking by that were maskless, as well as a few people smoking cigs. It's just maddening.

SplitSoul
Dec 31, 2000

13 kids from a single kindergarten brought B.1.1.7. home. All the schools are still open without any precautions except attempts at distancing and using sanitiser.

Vim Fuego
Jun 1, 2000

Ultra Carp

smoobles posted:

sadly there's no vaccine against reading you're posts

:sbahj:

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Tell me about PCR cycle

Vim Fuego
Jun 1, 2000

Ultra Carp

The Saddest Rhino posted:

after i get slutted up and america stops being the international centre of pandemics i'm going to come stay in your clown hotels

https://twitter.com/thegallowboob/status/1362977251474685952

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QBJaTtF7XI

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Happy Thread posted:

1. Vastly less testing. Testing centers have almost all been converted to vaccination centers, which did not become a scandal because people are distracted by vaccines

2. Less demand for testing. A lot of asymptomatics popped positive for the holidays because they all wanted tests to validate their holiday decisions. Those came and went and so did the demand surge.

3. The big one: After inauguration the ruling party pulled out their secret weapon for neutralizing this political crisis on day one: Change the national definition of what a positive is. The PCR threshold was reduced nationally from 40 cycles to 30. Each cycle is exponential, so if you let it reproduce 10 more times you catch thousands of times more things. This was a calculated decision to artificially deflate the amount of mild/asymptomatics who pass the bar. Those people will continue spreading it unaware that the meaningfulness of their test result got shoved under a rug. This one reduced cases, and also hospitalizations and deaths, because if you have no positive test you can lose one of each of those. ICU's are still as full as they were during the big December scare, on average, but to game that metric hospitals have just added tons of ICU beds in the past few months, without actually increasing the number of qualified personnel to staff them. Also, it helps that ICU fullness I guess is spread out at the moment so nowhere in particular is getting hit hard enough to make headlines.


Yeah, p much all of this is wrong.


I think it's more that we're returning to the already very high baseline from a holiday spike. The story shouldn't be "cases are dropping like a rock", but rather "holy gently caress gently caress gently caress what did we do? Christmas was a disaster!"

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Tzen posted:

Yeah. It loving sucks badly. Oh cool a recent example of this,
lol

Yeah, the total destruction of the few public institutions that seemed to still be trustworthy is just... something else. The CDC is politicized. White House messaging on a loving pandemic can't be trusted. The fed has all but admitted that BLS employment numbers are total bullshit.

You don't need conspiracy theories about case numbers because the government is literally openly admitting that it can't be trusted.

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Judakel posted:

Tell me about PCR cycle

I hear if we're all in quarantine long enough the PCR cycles sync up

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

Judakel posted:

Tell me about PCR cycle
When you do PCR you replicate the DNA(?) in each cycle. There's also a threshold for how much virus is deemed to be positive. So basically the more cycles you do, the more chance you have of reaching the threshold and being declared positive. Of course the tests take longer if you do more cycles.

The WHO said something last month about checking the manufacturers instructions for how to set thresholds and number of cycles, but I don't know anything about the cycle number being reduced to 30 or whatever.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
I believe in PCR

Posting
Constantly about
RUSSIAGATE

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

When you do PCR you replicate the DNA(?) in each cycle. There's also a threshold for how much virus is deemed to be positive. So basically the more cycles you do, the more chance you have of reaching the threshold and being declared positive. Of course the tests take longer if you do more cycles.

The WHO said something last month about checking the manufacturers instructions for how to set thresholds and number of cycles, but I don't know anything about the cycle number being reduced to 30 or whatever.


This is a good breakdown of the controversy and it does a good job debunking the conspiracy interpretation

tuyop
Sep 15, 2006

Every second that we're not growing BASIL is a second wasted

Fun Shoe
reading the op right now is certainly a trip, let me tell you

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

This conspiracy poo poo is dumb as hell if Joe Biden wanted to make the numbers smaller he'd just be like "listen here jack, we changed the PCRs because schools have to open and we're reclaiming the soul of the nation from malarkey" and no one would care. If you gave a single hot gently caress what would happen if you did this in full view of the public would you loving hire this guy?

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1363132264541020160?s=20

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

my best theories for case plummets imo:

* Reset to baseline from holiday explosion

* Fewer national superspreader events happening in January (see above)

* cases spike and fall and we're in a statistical trough right now but can expect them to shoot right back up in a few weeks especially with the new variant gassing up


Weak poo poo that maybe contributes to slowing but not as much as people say it does:

* More immune folks (via vaccines or natural immunity.)
* Seasonality
* Federal policy or leadership changes (loool, trumbo deplatforming probably had a greater effect than anything else if you ask me)

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster
"selling-advice process" is a god damned amazing term. absolutely incredible

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

El Mero Mero posted:

my best theories for case plummets imo:

* Reset to baseline from holiday explosion

* Fewer national superspreader events happening in January (see above)

* cases spike and fall and we're in a statistical trough right now but can expect them to shoot right back up in a few weeks especially with the new variant gassing up


Weak poo poo that maybe contributes to slowing but not as much as people say it does:

* More immune folks (via vaccines or natural immunity.)
* Seasonality
* Federal policy or leadership changes (loool, trumbo deplatforming probably had a greater effect than anything else if you ask me)

I agree with this

I'd add that we should start seeing an even more extreme rapid decline in deaths and hospitalizations in the next week or two, regardless of what daily cases do, and something would be extremely wrong if we didn't

Shipon
Nov 7, 2005
people are voluntarily staying home in big enough numbers to actually make a difference, the problem is that not enough people are doing so for long enough so it keeps lingering around because people do need to keep going to work to survive thanks to our government refusing to do anything otherwise

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Actually covid is over now, hence why the decline in cases started when Biden took over. Science is in charge now

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

Thanks. Should also be noted that chuds also believe the conspiracy since they think it was proof all along that the numbers were inflated.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Shipon posted:

people are voluntarily staying home in big enough numbers to actually make a difference, the problem is that not enough people are doing so for long enough so it keeps lingering around because people do need to keep going to work to survive thanks to our government refusing to do anything otherwise

This is what's happened in the Philippines since about October*. The thing to watch out for is if the cases level off and never go back further down beyond a lower level.

* but is in danger of getting overturned because thr govt is gonna OPEN ER UP further in March

silicone thrills
Jan 9, 2008

I paint things
So I'm in Washington which just apparently decided the virus isn't a thing anymore since Biden.

My company had managed to somehow never have an official covid case till now. Our accounts payable person casually mentioned her covid brain fog and her husband being super sick. "hey sorry don't trust my numbers! The covid brain fog has me" lmaooo

Now I'm seeing everyone chattering about going to restaurants and my coworkers are telling me their kids are back at school in person and already getting emails that their kids classmates have covid.

I started always wearing the Honeywell p100 half respirator like 2 months ago and I'm so loving happy about it. People have been like "wow you look so serious!" yeah gently caress you nose dicker.


Living in a state that was doing OK keeping the infection rate low and now suddenly isn't sucks poo poo.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Yeah if you're in a deep blue state and/or work with a bunch of bruncher libs this is an incredibly dangerous time for you and nobody will ever point this out to you except insane broke brains here lol

I'm in a blue dot in a red sea and mask compliance has gone to poo poo in the last month. Still pretty good strictly indoors but that's the extent of it, and people are back to socializing more or less like normal

silicone thrills
Jan 9, 2008

I paint things
A coworker I follow on Instagram due to their cool car projects (I work with industrial designers) posted a picture at a brunch spot this morning, seriously.

I had forgotten that indoor seating was being allowed again and it broke my brain.

Happy Thread
Jul 10, 2005

by Fluffdaddy
Plaster Town Cop
I didn't keep the link for the PCR thing but I do remember seeing this thread go from challenging the claim to going "wait oh poo poo there's something to it", and I trust this thread.


Here's a tweet thread that their debunking cites about how PCR works.

https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1345203080732635136

I honestly can't make sense of the argument they're trying to make. It isn't made very well, so it comes of as making an empty excuse for why something doesn't matter.

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

silicone thrills posted:

A coworker I follow on Instagram due to their cool car projects (I work with industrial designers) posted a picture at a brunch spot this morning, seriously.

I had forgotten that indoor seating was being allowed again and it broke my brain.

The spin gym down the block from me is free trials and discounted memberships

We're going to be so hosed as soon as there's a variant cluster here

silicone thrills
Jan 9, 2008

I paint things
I thought there already has been b117 detected in Seattle


Hahaha gently caress it has about 2. 5 weeks ago. No wonder everyone's showing up sick now in my life. gently caress


https://publichealthinsider.com/2021/01/23/the-new-variant-covid-19-strain-is-here-heres-what-you-need-to-know/

fischtick
Jul 9, 2001

CORGO, THE DESTROYER

Fun Shoe
A friend of mine is supposed to start a new job soon, but her paperwork is gonna be a little late because the small company's HR person went to Honduras. Not on a fact-finding mission or for humanitarian aid; for a week's vacation.

Steve Yun
Aug 7, 2003
I'm a parasitic landlord that needs to get a job instead of stealing worker's money. Make sure to remind me when I post.
Soiled Meat
no big deal just wear a respirator and goggles

Shiroc
May 16, 2009

Sorry I'm late

silicone thrills posted:

I thought there already has been b117 detected in Seattle


Hahaha gently caress it has about 2. 5 weeks ago. No wonder everyone's showing up sick now in my life. gently caress


https://publichealthinsider.com/2021/01/23/the-new-variant-covid-19-strain-is-here-heres-what-you-need-to-know/

lol every bar and restaurant I saw when I went for a walk was packed tonight

Google Butt
Oct 4, 2005

Xenology is an unnatural mixture of science fiction and formal logic. At its core is a flawed assumption...

that an alien race would be psychologically human.

its really insane how the switch flipped overnight lol

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

Shiroc posted:

lol every bar and restaurant I saw when I went for a walk was packed tonight

gently caress it's a good thing covid is over

Tzen
Sep 11, 2001

silicone thrills posted:

So I'm in Washington which just apparently decided the virus isn't a thing anymore since Biden.

My company had managed to somehow never have an official covid case till now. Our accounts payable person casually mentioned her covid brain fog and her husband being super sick. "hey sorry don't trust my numbers! The covid brain fog has me" lmaooo

Now I'm seeing everyone chattering about going to restaurants and my coworkers are telling me their kids are back at school in person and already getting emails that their kids classmates have covid.

I started always wearing the Honeywell p100 half respirator like 2 months ago and I'm so loving happy about it. People have been like "wow you look so serious!" yeah gently caress you nose dicker.


Living in a state that was doing OK keeping the infection rate low and now suddenly isn't sucks poo poo.
As a fellow WA and half respirator wearer, I am feeling very much the same.

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster
https://twitter.com/reese_shapiro/status/1363406703673360384?s=19

how could this go wrong??????

nomad2020
Jan 30, 2007

Google Butt posted:

its really insane how the switch flipped overnight lol

The science says Open er up!

Steve Yun
Aug 7, 2003
I'm a parasitic landlord that needs to get a job instead of stealing worker's money. Make sure to remind me when I post.
Soiled Meat
Guys I have some GREAT news

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antho...1wrZnAVpATwkhOg

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gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
"The timeline is a shift from previous comments"

HE'S loving LYING

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