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"Just pay property tax, and strata/HOA, and maintenance/upkeep/reno, and mortgage interest"
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Mar 16, 2021 22:21
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Got linked to an interesting report on twitter via a discussion of "percentage of first-time buyers with parental help", 2019 numbers in all these charts (though 2020 expected "real soon"). Bunch of mortgage brokers seemed to think 50%ish for 2020 was a reasonable guess (responding to someone saying 90%).    Note the contrast between those last two in particular. In 2015-2019, 40% of first-time buyers got help from their parents ... but it was only 15% of actual down payment funds... Although perhaps one should go 15 / 0.4 = 37.5 for those buyers?
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Mar 16, 2021 23:36
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Would love to be one of those people who had wealthy enough parents that they could not only help out in a jam, but literally fund an entire home for their children. I was recently giving my partner advice on how risky she should get on wealthsimple, unfortunately she doesn't have much of an emergency fund (due to mortgage sucking up all her monthly after-tax income) and she's a bit risk averse generally, so I recommended go very conservative (3/10 on their risk scale, 66% fixed income). But actually, she could 100% go waaay more risky (like 100% equities even) if she wanted because her parents are not short on wealth at all and can definitely bail her out of anything she gets into without her needing to liquidate. Unfortunately this is not the case for others, including me, who actually need that six-month emergency fund incase poo poo hits the fan. It cannot be overstated just how much having wealthy parents will affect your overall financial picture, you can actually take risk without needing to worry about going destitute.
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Mar 17, 2021 00:13
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The average down payment amount has gone from 18% value of the home to 24% (table 3-12).
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Mar 17, 2021 00:18
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Also hold the phone, 25%~ of first-time buyers are getting a loan from a financial institution... for a downpayment on a loan from a financial institution? How the gently caress does that work? Are they pulling on an unsecured line of credit or something?
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Mar 17, 2021 00:23
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Crow Buddy posted:Not buying a lovely house for more than I could afford in 2003 has turned out to be the worst financial decision I will ever make.  tagesschau posted:Not being born five years earlier has turned out to be the worst financial decision I will ever make. but also this.
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Mar 17, 2021 00:40
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qhat posted:Also hold the phone, 25%~ of first-time buyers are getting a loan from a financial institution... for a downpayment on a loan from a financial institution? How the gently caress does that work? Are they pulling on an unsecured line of credit or something? I remember reading something to the effect of lenders only really cracking down on this in 2020 - not sure offhand if it was new OSFI/CMHC rules or just risk management. But putting together 50k or whatever of your down payment by tapping credit cards apparently isn't allowed now, need to show a few months' history on the source of funds and CCs tapped would show up on credit file. (Fair game for closing costs?) Sassafras fucked around with this message at 00:55 on Mar 17, 2021 |
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Mar 17, 2021 00:52
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Saw a condo tonight that we really like and asked if we can get status cert in advance. Selling agent says no, put it as a condition and seller will order and pay for it. Great I’ll just give you 30k deposit to hold and fight me over once I (and/or my lawyer) decide I don’t like the building financials or rules I guess. I hate this loving market. Last time we were looking at condos every seller had the status ready to go the second it was asked for.
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Mar 17, 2021 02:30
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These days in the GTA it would be very tough to put a condition on a condo sale, weather it be on a status cert or inspection. And yeah it's dumb, I would be super nervous without one.
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Mar 17, 2021 03:27
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Nunavut looking really loving attractive....
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Mar 17, 2021 03:33
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Global warming gonna gently caress up the GTA in a decade... Home prices cheaper than a car .. cost of living still cheaper than living in a condo downtown.... Nice cushy government sponsored jobs and tax incentives...
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Mar 17, 2021 03:35
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Well we are looking at a house in Calgary tomorrow to buy because gently caress it yolo. Prices never dropped even while we are in a massive recession and then covid, my planned relo to Toronto got put on hold and even with a raise I wouldn't be able to afford a house there, I'm tired of living above a basement suite where they're always yelling, my wife has all of her friends buying and moving to that stage so theres full fomo, and mortgage rates keep dropping anyway Looking forward to my pride of ownership and getting to pay property taxes
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Mar 17, 2021 04:03
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A progressive think tank crunched the numbers, and even in the best case, non-profit scenario, "affordable" housing is still really loving hard to make happen. https://twitter.com/MarcLeeCCPA/status/1371848550183809025?s=20 quote:Key findings: So to get to $1273, you need a not for profit, free land, no parking, and no fees. lol. So maybe Swanson, Condon and the rest of the NIMBY left that whines about inclusive zoning affordable MIRHPP units being "too expensive" should shut the gently caress up a bit and recognize that brand new construction is actually expensive even when it's not big bad developers. Effectively though this report says what we've known all along, which is that public, not for profit investment in housing is the only way that we're going to be able to create affordable housing. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 05:40 on Mar 17, 2021 |
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Mar 17, 2021 05:30
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Defenistrator posted:Global warming gonna gently caress up the GTA in a decade... Home prices cheaper than a car .. cost of living still cheaper than living in a condo downtown.... Nice cushy government sponsored jobs and tax incentives... Because I assume it's still bannable to just post "what" in response: where do you get the idea that home Toronto homes will be cheaper than cars? What nigh-impossible series of events is required to get to this scenario?
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Mar 17, 2021 05:30
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I'm guessing people fleeing the oven-like conditions of asphalt and cement town while some people are willing to put up with it?
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Mar 17, 2021 10:53
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Femtosecond posted:So to get to $1273, you need a not for profit, free land, no parking, and no fees. lol. Well, they didn't consider the effects of forced labor on construction costs - a surprising omission! They do allude to slightly lower costs achievable through long-term salaried trades vs their projection using market rates without putting a number on it. Sassafras fucked around with this message at 11:07 on Mar 17, 2021 |
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Mar 17, 2021 11:05
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qhat posted:"Just pay property tax, and strata/HOA, and maintenance/upkeep/reno, and mortgage interest" This reminds me, does anyone have a good rent vs buy calculator that applies to Ontario specifically and lets you account for things like investing the down payment vs using it for a house purchase, maintenance fees, closing costs if you sell, inflation, rent resetting to market rate when you have to move, etc. I know that at the end of the day the main thing that matters is "will price appreciation outstrip inflation and will rates stay low" but it's still nice to pretend I'm putting at least some analytical thought into possibly buying right now. I have a calculator I made myself but it only really looks at year 1 numbers to see how tax+strata+maintenance+interest compares to just renting and saving the difference. Edit: Finally found one that I mostly like. Takes a bit of work to estimate strata + maintenance for a condo (in the end I just went with 2%) but at the end of the day it just shows how much higher recent property gains have outstripped historical averages in the GTA. If you put in historical values for growth rate and std deviation then renting tends to come out. Start putting in numbers that look more like the last decade though and owning puts you far, far ahead. So, rent vs buy seems to come down to - do you believe house NUMBER go UP forever? If so, buy a condo. Also love the url: https://bondsareforlosers.com/rent-versus-buy-calculator/ The main thing it's missing is sheltering in TFSA. I'm not too worried about the lack of RRSP tax deferral because as established in this thread before that's not as big of a plus as people think it is. Cold on a Cob fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Mar 17, 2021 |
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Mar 17, 2021 16:01
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Cold on a Cob posted:This reminds me, does anyone have a good rent vs buy calculator that applies to Ontario specifically and lets you account for things like investing the down payment vs using it for a house purchase, maintenance fees, closing costs if you sell, inflation, rent resetting to market rate when you have to move, etc. Posted last June: Sassafras posted:Anyway, punching my numbers into this rent vs buy calculator certainly tells me to BUY BUY BUY at these rates. Other than very slightly due to an inability to input full closing costs (BC PTT), it doesn't seem like it's biased that way, either! Someone else tried it and had much more of a breakeven scenario, unfortunately no matter how scientific/thorough you try to be, it all boils down to very small adjustments in the rent increase, property appreciation, and investment return sliders. Rent resetting to market from some sort of protection is another unhandled wildcard though.
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Mar 17, 2021 16:19
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tagesschau posted:Because I assume it's still bannable to just post "what" in response: where do you get the idea that home Toronto homes will be cheaper than cars? What nigh-impossible series of events is required to get to this scenario? He meant up North, house prices are cheaper than cars right now apparently
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Mar 17, 2021 16:20
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Sassafras posted:Someone else tried it and had much more of a breakeven scenario, unfortunately no matter how scientific/thorough you try to be, it all boils down to very small adjustments in the rent increase, property appreciation, and investment return sliders. Rent resetting to market from some sort of protection is another unhandled wildcard though. Yeah that's basically what I'm seeing. If you plug in historical returns that precede the incredible 2010-2020 bull run it sure makes renting look a lot better. The calculator posted in June doesn't really let you estimate potential interest rate increases. If I start at 3% I break even in 4 years, but if I push to 5% then I never break even. Makes me feel better about loving around and finding out by renting since 2016 at least. 
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Mar 17, 2021 16:33
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Woo, strata living: https://twitter.com/JodyJodyWhite/status/1372228884847079424
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Mar 17, 2021 19:00
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Sassafras posted:Woo, strata living: Holy crap. I'm going to guess that a lot of the owners filed a lawsuit? 
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Mar 17, 2021 19:07
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Wtf. That is actually crazy, you can't even do that in BC, it's literally illegal to use reserves to invest in anything except A+ bonds.
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Mar 17, 2021 19:08
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Can I get a ruling just how much of an understatement "experts say such cryptocurrency investments come with risks" is?
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Mar 17, 2021 19:19
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Unless I'm mistaken, apparently in Saskatchewan there doesn't appear to be clear regulations on what a strata board can and can't use the funds for. They can basically use the funds for anything pursuant to the Trustee Act 2009, which basically just says yeah sure do whatever just don't be stupid, without stating explicitly what stupid is defined as.
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Mar 17, 2021 19:33
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I generally have been pretty satisfied with our strata board, but the upcoming AGM has apparently pulled every complex weirdo out to run for council and there is *drama* this year. (I suspect Covid restriction boredom is teeing off some mental health issues.) I cannot even imagine how insane it would be if someone was trying to invest the contingency fund into Bitcoin.
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Mar 17, 2021 19:48
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qhat posted:Wtf. That is actually crazy, you can't even do that in BC, it's literally illegal to use reserves to invest in anything except A+ bonds. apparently, it is legal in saskatchewan https://twitter.com/JodyJodyWhite/status/1372254931168661504
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Mar 17, 2021 20:03
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Cold on a Cob posted:Holy crap. I'm going to guess that a lot of the owners filed a lawsuit? Very conveniently, the guy who convinced them to do it is a cryptocurrency lawyer, an area which you'd think would be 100% about crypto-related fraud and swindles, but to infinite and beyond I guess! quote:Eric [...] articled at a small firm in Regina in 2010 after graduating from law school and joined our office in 2014. He became a partner in 2017.
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Mar 17, 2021 20:07
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Welp goon (me) wrong again. Watch them cash out $100M in a decade I guess.
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Mar 17, 2021 20:11
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The original Bitcoin thread is what convinced me to join the forums and I associate the icon with buffoonery, clownery, and dumbassery. I start smiling every time I see it!
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Mar 17, 2021 20:34
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Cold on a Cob posted:This reminds me, does anyone have a good rent vs buy calculator that applies to Ontario specifically and lets you account for things like investing the down payment vs using it for a house purchase, maintenance fees, closing costs if you sell, inflation, rent resetting to market rate when you have to move, etc. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html I find this one by the NYT is very comprehensive. Not Ontario-specific, obviously, but you punch in your numbers.
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Mar 17, 2021 20:36
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So I have to ask, is there really a housing bubble or have we all been deluding ourselves when we gleefully made fun of everyone buying (then overpriced) homes during the Harper years? By my count, home prices are rising so fast that even living rent-free with your parents and saving money this way will not outpace the rate at which the house prices are rising each year. You'd have to convince a high equity family member to HELOC their poo poo to help you lock in a price and then pray to the financial gods that the house won't depreciate in value. Are we all just experiencing sour grapes at this point or will the market crash some day?
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Mar 17, 2021 21:26
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Million dollar houses are the new normal, money has no value and if you're not already on the property ladder you're priced out forever and destined to pay ever higher rents until you're destitute and living in a tent or van
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Mar 17, 2021 21:34
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large hands posted:Million dollar houses are the new normal, money has no value and if you're not already on the property ladder you're priced out forever and destined to pay ever higher rents until you're destitute and living in a tent or van I understand that sentiment, I really do. But it doesn't really make sense to me. In the 1990s Japan had an asset price bubble that was so large that the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo had the same dollar value as all the land in the entire state of California... You could literally trade California for the Imperial Palace! Not long after that Japan's economy went kaput and they've been living with bailed out zombie banks for 20 years. Do we have any hard data that this is strictly a supply-demand issue? Are there actually more people buying houses/looking to rent than there are houses/condos on the market? Sooner or later people will run out of creative ways to get into debt to buy property and when they do the bottom will fall out.
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Mar 17, 2021 21:43
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Asset prices are being stoked by mania and low interest rates. It's not just Canada, it's happening everywhere in the western world.
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Mar 17, 2021 21:53
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Surely this time things are different and will never ever change
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Mar 17, 2021 21:56
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We are currently entering the death spiral. More and more of our (stagnating) wages are going to be spent on housing costs (Mortgages, Rent, Food, Heat, Upkeep) and less and less of our wages are going to go to discretionary spending All service industries and the market that services that discretionary spending will shrink and shrink and shrink Our GDP will exist solely of Real Estate transactions, food, and plumbing
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Mar 17, 2021 22:06
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Yeah I thought it was a bubble and it would pop, back when I was an optimist. 
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Mar 17, 2021 22:25
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Kraftwerk posted:Do we have any hard data that this is strictly a supply-demand issue? Are there actually more people buying houses/looking to rent than there are houses/condos on the market? Sooner or later people will run out of creative ways to get into debt to buy property and when they do the bottom will fall out. Housing scarcity is real. Vacancy is stubbornly low, and if yimbys are to be believed even the sky high amount of condo construction taking place still isn't enough to move that number. Meanwhile immigration is only going to increase. There was a while there where there was a reasonable question that speculation related empty homes and pied a terre growth was causing some % of new homes to be left off the market, but since the foreign/spec tax brought foreign buying to zero, injected several thousand empty homes onto the market overnight, and vaporized the pied a terre condo market, this is really not something we can point to any more. The demand siders that are still talking about money laundering and empty homes on twitter are pretty much a handful of tin foil hat wearing racists that can be ignored. In real concrete numbers there's less than 50,000 single family homes in City of Vancouver proper and only a handful of that number are available for sale at any given time. That number of single family homes will only continue to shrink as the CoV runs out of politically safe brownfield land to redevelop, more and more areas of SFH are intensified, and more SFHs disappear and are replaced by townhouses or denser. Demographically millennials are now approaching their fourties and those amongst them that are lucky enough to have asset wealth either from parents or an appreciated condo or both are better positioned than they'll ever be to grab that brass ring of that oh so desired SFH. All this put together and it is quite conceivable of why SFH prices are spiking so dramatically. The global pandemic which made everyone realize how valuable physical space was was the catalyst and of course the decrease in interest rates from the pandemic provided the lubrication to make these housing deals happen. Even if there's some legit demographic reasons for this housing excitement, it doesn't mean that there's not gonna be a hangover. What we're seeing is a bunch of expected purchasing being crushed into a tiny time of this year. This will mean reduced sales in following years.
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Mar 17, 2021 22:43
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The government should be making people who are borrowing over X amount get stress tested further or something. Cause they have wedged themselves into a situation where people have giant mortgage that will bury them in a rate increase. At least force the people who will be genuinely be loving themselves to get into the market who cannot afford an increase in rate. I wish they'd just jack up the rates though.
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Mar 17, 2021 23:13
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