Castaign posted:

Something I've been curious about and can't find any conclusive science on is how the efficacy of a vaccine as measured in a population translates to efficacy on an individual level. When people discuss how effective the vaccines are, it seems like the assumption is that a vaccine that is 90% effective means that any single person who is vaccinated has a 10% chance of still catching the disease. Is that actually an accurate assessment of how immunity works, or is it the case that 90% of the people who get the vaccine are fully immune, and 10% of people who get the vaccine end up with no protection?

The numbers play out the same on the population level of course, but I still find the question interesting. Anyone have any insight?

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

When they say that a study shows that a vaccine has 90% efficacy it means that out of all the people who caught the virus during the trials, 90% were in the control group (got the placebo) and the other 10% were people who got the vax. Assuming that both groups were roughly the same and were exposed to the virus at roughly the same levels that means the vaccine confers immunity on 90% of people and 10% are still vulnerable.

However, if you get the jab there's no way of knowing whether you're one of the 90% of people who got immunity or one of the 10% who didn't (apart from getting a lab to analyse your blood for titers etc.) so you have to assume that there's still a 10% probability you're not immune. It does seem to offer protection from severe symptoms though, so you'd almost certainly only develop a mild case.

(There's also questions about how long the immunity lasts, and whether the scary new strains of the virus are vaccine resistant. We'll just have to wait and see on those, but if poo poo heads south then everyone might have to get booster shots at some point.)

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

When they say that a study shows that a vaccine has 90% efficacy it means that out of all the people who caught the virus during the trials, 90% were in the control group (got the placebo) and the other 10% were people who got the vax.

Platystemon posted:

Also, the trials for each of the currently available vaccines counted efficacy for “came down with the disease”, not “caught the virus”. Most infections do seem to be quickly halted, but the trials didn’t tell us that was going to happen e.g. ninety percent of the time.

AnnoyBot posted:

Once teachers are vaccinated, I expect a big in person push. I have two kids in distance school and I'm not looking forward to getting infected 18 months into this bullshit because the district said "hey you can (must?) go back now, teachers are safe and we bought a bunch of (ineffective) ionizers!".

JonathonSpectre posted:

Good news, though, the worst governor in the history of the stupidest state is going to lower the vaccine age to 50!

Alan Smithee posted:

Do Walgreens first then cvs. Check as early as you can, 4-7am

Fluffy Bunnies posted:

there is no reason that the majority of workers and the majority of school children (with a parent at home) cannot stay the hell at home and do their work in 2021. imagine the emissions we'd cut down on.

Pale Ale posted:

Wasn’t CSL meant to be making a million doses a week of AZ vaccine in Australia by now? That’s gone awful quiet.

Lolie posted:

The government keeps saying CSL is still on target.

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

LOL LOL of course they are. On February 25 the gov announced that they were still on track to meet all of the targets they'd set for the lead up into March, three days later it turns out they'd managed way less than half.

Bape Culture posted:

Is there photos of what the vaccine facilities look like? I’d love to see how this stuff is made.

Zeriel posted:

busalover posted:

What the gently caress is this? This sounds bad. (thread)

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1373501475805102082

quote:

Australia's Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has granted approval to AstraZeneca for its COVID-19 vaccine to be manufactured in Australia.

The TGA approved the local manufacture of the vaccine today, following weeks of frustration over the slow rollout of imported doses.

The regulatory agency allowed the local use of overseas-manufactured AstraZeneca jabs on February 16.

quote:

Bolsonaro Appoints Fourth Health Minister as Pandemic Rages

President Jair Bolsonaro replaced General Eduardo Pazuello at the helm of the health ministry as daily records of infections and deaths add pressure on Brazil to get the coronavirus pandemic under control.

Cardiologist Marcelo Queiroga accepted an offer to become the country’s new health chief, the president told supporters in front of the residential palace on Monday.

“I had an excellent conversation with him this afternoon,” Bolsonaro said. “In my understanding he has everything to do a good job, continuing everything that Pazuello has done so far.”

Queiroga will be the fourth person in charge of the health ministry since the coronavirus arrived in the country a little over a year ago. Luiz Henrique Mandetta and Nelson Teich, who both had medical background, left after disagreements with Bolsonaro over social distancing and unproven treatments against Covid-19. Pazuello had been in the post since May.

Pressure to replace Pazuello, a logistics expert in the Army, grew in the past few weeks as Brazil succumbs to a new wave of the virus. The country has consistently reported more than 75,000 cases and 2,000 deaths a day, overtaking India -- which has a population over six times larger -- in total infections.

Several hospitals across the country have no room for more patients as the nation’s health system finds itself on the brink of collapse. The surge in cases has been made worse by lax social distancing orders and a new, more contagious variant that originated in the Amazonian capital of Manaus.

Earlier this year, patients died in Manaus as oxygen ran out, a crisis that sparked a Supreme Court investigation into Pazuello’s actions and dented his reputation. The General had already faced harsh criticism over a data blackout when he first took over the job, as well as for promotion of chloroquine and other unproven medication against Covid also touted by Bolsonaro.

“It is as simple as that: one commands and the other obeys,” Pazuello said in October, when Bolsonaro disallowed his minister to buy Sinovac Biotech Ltd’s vaccine because of its Chinese origin.

A lack of vaccines -- which Pazuello is largely blamed for -- has added to concerns about the recovery of Latin America’s largest economy. Conversations with pharmaceutical companies including Pfizer Inc have dragged on for months, leaving the country with few shots at hand. The health ministry has repeatedly reduced the amount of doses it expects to have at hand in March, pushing congress to ask for a formal response and leaving states and cities trying to buy their own.

Mulaney Power Move posted:

spring breakers behaving exceptionally bad this year. i say use nausea gas on them like they did to protesters in the 60s.

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

https://twitter.com/JordanUhl/status/1240382998253572098

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Could someone just confirm something for me - are the stated efficacy rates for the vaccines the reduction in likelihood of getting severe (i.e. requiring hospitalisation) disease, the likelihood of getting any kind of symptomatic infection, or the likelihood of getting any kind of measurable infection? Or is the reduction for all three actually around the same? And what does this actually do to the chances of a given individual who's exposed? The reason I ask is that non-expert sources will occasionally throw out a "no deaths or hospitalisations" headline about one or the other of the vaccines (particularly the AZ one) but they never seem to back that up with actual proof.

7of7 posted:

All of the vaccines went through phase 3 trials where the efficacy numbers were calculated based on slightly different primary endpoints. For Pfizer it was laboratory confirmed infection, for Moderna it was symptomatic disease. For J&J it was laboratory confirmed moderate to severe disease.

There are tons of documents out there on clinicaltrials.gov and in NEJM where the trial results were published. They aren't hard to read either so you can get all the information you want about what symptoms were counted, how efficacy was calculated etc.

Regarding the no deaths or hospitalizations thing I think some experts have tried to steer conversations towards that because like I said all the trials were different. They had different endpoints and took place with different types of variants being common. People have been trying to compare efficacy numbers but that's not really appropriate given how different the trials were so the only thing you can really say is that all the vaccines are great at keeping you out of the hospital and out of the ground.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Could someone just confirm something for me - are the stated efficacy rates for the vaccines the reduction in likelihood of getting severe (i.e. requiring hospitalisation) disease, the likelihood of getting any kind of symptomatic infection, or the likelihood of getting any kind of measurable infection? Or is the reduction for all three actually around the same? And what does this actually do to the chances of a given individual who's exposed? The reason I ask is that non-expert sources will occasionally throw out a "no deaths or hospitalisations" headline about one or the other of the vaccines (particularly the AZ one) but they never seem to back that up with actual proof.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

I suppose there's a bit of bet-hedging going on though, nobody particularly wants to be saying "Get this jab and you definitely won't die" even if for the vast majority of people this is absolutely true, because then having to explain to the family of the first person to die after being vaccinated (and with billions of people that's going to happen almost no matter how good the vaccine is) gets much harder and probably does more harm in the long term than the more wonkish approach.

Mulaney Power Move posted:

if the vaccines dont work why does the government really want you to get one. no one thinks for themselves anymore. they all go to college and get brainwashed.