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Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Please open up at Matt Gaetz market. Please Please Please.

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Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

As you wish

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7207/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-before-May-1

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Pillowpants posted:

before I jump into this wonderous market - have any of you made huge amounts of money?

A lot of people have made pretty good money here, 5x or 10x what they put in easily. The pros can make hundreds of thousands per year (not sure if there is anyone here in that range). There isn't a ton of great action available right now since we're about as far away from election season as possible, however.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

it's soooo boring, i want to withdraw 70% of what's in my pot and pay off my car

Merlot Brougham
Dec 16, 2004

The White Darryl Strawberry


Salad Prong
Hey now, by the time this Murkowski market actually pays out, I will have made an additonal tens of dollars.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

i do like the comment sections though

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


https://twitter.com/jeremyherb/status/1377750680136519681?s=20

And PredictIT down right when I need it. :argh:

net work error
Feb 26, 2011

Are we bidding yes?

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

I want to buy No but at 80c it hardly seems worth the risk. My gut take is that Gaetz is a complete amoral creep and cannot be shamed into doing anything, so Yes has little appeal to me either.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Vox Nihili posted:

I want to buy No but at 80c it hardly seems worth the risk. My gut take is that Gaetz is a complete amoral creep and cannot be shamed into doing anything, so Yes has little appeal to me either.

Yah, I think it's very unlikely he leaves unless he is kicked out. All of this is the new norm for the GOP.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Baddog posted:

Yah, I think it's very unlikely he leaves unless he is kicked out. All of this is the new norm for the GOP.

new norm for the GOP, which is why i'll be collecting my YES money on cuomo in office on december 31st

also i think there was a northam market too

Owlspiracy
Nov 4, 2020


so about gaetz not resigning....

https://twitter.com/MSignorile/status/1377766838386499587

greenberg has been charged with sex trafficking, and theres video evidence of him and gaetz looking through the fake ids he made for his victims together

quote:

In the meeting, which has not been previously reported, a witness provided evidence linking Gaetz to Greenberg, the former tax collector in Seminole County, Florida, who was arrested last year on charges that include sex trafficking of a minor and fabricating fake IDs.
Greenberg has pleaded not guilty and is set to go to trial later this year on the ID and sex trafficking charges, as well as charges that he stalked a former political rival.
News of the meeting offers details about the Justice Department's early awareness of the congressman's relationship with Greenberg.
According to one of the people familiar with the matter, an employee at the tax collector's office saw Greenberg and Gaetz on internal office surveillance video looking through driver licenses on a weekend evening.
In a text message exchange shared with CNN that the source said was between Greenberg and the employee, Greenberg confirmed he was in the office "showing congressman Gaetz what our operation looked like."
That witness shared the information with prosecutors from the local US attorney's office and US Secret Service agents investigating Greenberg's case in January 2020, the person familiar with the matter said.

Owlspiracy has issued a correction as of 02:28 on Apr 2, 2021

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

i say swears online posted:

new norm for the GOP, which is why i'll be collecting my YES money on cuomo in office on december 31st

also i think there was a northam market too

Yesterday I sold my Cuomo not resigning May 1 for 93 cents and rolled it all into Gaetz not resigning at 77 cents. I am still long Cuomo remaining in office until the end of the year. I just bought some DeJoy remaining postmaster general too. Basically my entire portfolio is betting arrogant, disgusting white men keep their jobs.

The Joe Man
Apr 7, 2007

Flirting With Apathetic Waitresses Since 1984
Haven't gambled for a bit so threw $20 on Gaetz resigning. Dude was planning to leave anyways, I think he might jump ship early to try and avoid prosecution. The GOP hates him too so it's not like he has any bootlickers to save his rear end.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Zeta Taskforce posted:

Yesterday I sold my Cuomo not resigning May 1 for 93 cents and rolled it all into Gaetz not resigning at 77 cents. I am still long Cuomo remaining in office until the end of the year. I just bought some DeJoy remaining postmaster general too. Basically my entire portfolio is betting arrogant, disgusting white men keep their jobs.

same lol

Owlspiracy
Nov 4, 2020


up 50% on resign - a bunch of tweets dumped that are not good him, including the fact that one of the prostitutes he sent to hotels to meet with men sharing receipts of him paying her

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


And he's been keeping photos and sharing them with his coworkers :barf:

It's gonna be a really interesting look if Gaetz gets the boot while Cuomo stays.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


https://twitter.com/PatriciaMazzei/status/1377798913885925377?s=20

:aaa: :barf: :aaa: :barf:

GenJoe
Sep 15, 2010


Rehabilitated?


That's just a bullshit word.
I'm in at NO at .73, I think this will drag out for at least a month (Gaetz is a huge rear end in a top hat), and forced removal isn't looking promising. Pelosi's hardliner stance is that he'll be removed from committee "if the allegations are true"

Merlot Brougham
Dec 16, 2004

The White Darryl Strawberry


Salad Prong
These types of markets tread a little close to pure gambling. Who knows what might surface before the end of the month.

I prefer the markets where breaking bombshell news has zero impact on the outcome - best example was a few years ago when the Republican Congressional candidate in Montana "body slammed" a reporter on the eve of the election and his shares started selling cheap, but there was no way he was ever going to lose the election.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Montana isn't a swing state and he wasn't diddling kids.

Gaetz is a massively prolific Republican figure that used to be a regular guest on Fox News but I do agree that it could maybe last month than a month - that is a tough call but I do believe this is going to be the subject of every weekend talk show. Fox New hasn't mentioned him at all in a few days which is very odd.

Owlspiracy
Nov 4, 2020


Merlot Brougham posted:

These types of markets tread a little close to pure gambling. Who knows what might surface before the end of the month.

I prefer the markets where breaking bombshell news has zero impact on the outcome - best example was a few years ago when the Republican Congressional candidate in Montana "body slammed" a reporter on the eve of the election and his shares started selling cheap, but there was no way he was ever going to lose the election.

the way to play this market was to sell when it hits 40/45

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Owlspiracy posted:

the way to play this market was to sell when it hits 40/45

That's how I've managed to make more than a few dollars off Cuomo. Following the news cycle is a fun game.

net work error
Feb 26, 2011

Some more news has been coming out on Gaetz paying over Venmo or something so this one isn't dead just yet.

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

net work error posted:

Some more news has been coming out on Gaetz paying over Venmo or something so this one isn't dead just yet.

Wasn't he already caught last week paying girls with CashApp? Venmo doesn't sound like a giant leap into new territory. I did sell some of my no at 85 cents but I just loaded up at 78 cents.

The whole thing is so weird. The drip drip drip of Gaetz scandal, the bizarre Tucker interview where he claimed his family was being extorted for 25 million and named the guy on air. Then said guy said that he wasn't extorting anything, but did say that spending $25 million to free a hostage in Iran that everyone assumes is dead would buy a lot of good will, and wouldn't all that good will come in handy right now. And the Seminole County Tax collector who went rogue, and it just so happens that they are all went clubbing with Roger Stone. Only in Florida.

Someone posted this in the PI comments section.

ArmedZombie
Jun 6, 2004

net work error posted:

Some more news has been coming out on Gaetz paying over Venmo or something so this one isn't dead just yet.

this nestor

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Zeta Taskforce posted:

Someone posted this in the PI comments section.



I thought David Dees was dead

then again, that's exactly what they would want me to think

:tinfoil:

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Dark loving times

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

i had 3k wileys before she kinda stalled in the news and i let 'em go. yang's unstoppable, he's going to insult bodega owners all the way to the mayor's office

Grandpa Palpatine
Dec 13, 2019

by vyelkin
I'm scared y'all

Grandpa Palpatine
Dec 13, 2019

by vyelkin
Any chance he goes down a bit before the election?

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

unless theres a major fuckup I think this train has no brakes

Merlot Brougham
Dec 16, 2004

The White Darryl Strawberry


Salad Prong
Since predictit's been a little slow lately, I figured I'd look to expand my portfolio. You're drat right notify when active.

Parakeet vs. Phone
Nov 6, 2009
One of the only times I've actually been happy for Predictit's emails. Picked up what felt like a free $8 on Hartlepool after they sent the last newsletter. Labour eating poo poo seemed safe. Just wish I would have caught on earlier and gotten a better price.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Welp,

I promised everyone earlier that I'd the outcome of my PredictIT adventure and well... things didn't work out as I expected. My earlier bets paid off but now it seems I'm way too optimistic - Gaetz and likely Cuomo put me in the red :smith:

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

always bet on despair

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

Zeta Taskforce posted:

Yesterday I sold my Cuomo not resigning May 1 for 93 cents and rolled it all into Gaetz not resigning at 77 cents. I am still long Cuomo remaining in office until the end of the year. I just bought some DeJoy remaining postmaster general too. Basically my entire portfolio is betting arrogant, disgusting white men keep their jobs.

From April 1. I only had about $400 in this, I'm at $621 now. I'm betting Gaetz is around 9/1 now. I might put something on him remaining on the Judiciary committee, riskier but I'm playing with house money. We live in a world where if you are a Republican the only thing that can get you in trouble is telling the truth.

comedyblissoption posted:

always bet on despair

This too.

Mola Yam
Jun 18, 2004

Kali Ma Shakti de!
is this thread just for predictit and just for politics?

because i've been going hard on "no" for 2021 olympics opening ceremony to be held on betfair every time it pokes its head up, and i'm starting to get uneasy. there's <9 weeks to go, which means like 6 or 7 before all the athletes need to be over there, which means the ioc has to blink really soon if it's not going to happen.

in my favour, the negative public, corporate, and political sentiment in japan is only getting stronger every day. might still not lose a lot of money on this.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Mola Yam posted:

is this thread just for predictit and just for politics?

because i've been going hard on "no" for 2021 olympics opening ceremony to be held on betfair every time it pokes its head up, and i'm starting to get uneasy. there's <9 weeks to go, which means like 6 or 7 before all the athletes need to be over there, which means the ioc has to blink really soon if it's not going to happen.

in my favour, the negative public, corporate, and political sentiment in japan is only getting stronger every day. might still not lose a lot of money on this.

Someone in Japan to give us the feel? I think it's gonna go. If it doesn't go this year they are just gonna cancel it, right? Must be an insane amount of pressure to hold it.

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Harry Potter on Ice
Nov 4, 2006


IF IM NOT BITCHING ABOUT HOW SHITTY MY LIFE IS, REPORT ME FOR MY ACCOUNT HAS BEEN HIJACKED

Mola Yam posted:

is this thread just for predictit and just for politics?

because i've been going hard on "no" for 2021 olympics opening ceremony to be held on betfair every time it pokes its head up, and i'm starting to get uneasy. there's <9 weeks to go, which means like 6 or 7 before all the athletes need to be over there, which means the ioc has to blink really soon if it's not going to happen.

in my favour, the negative public, corporate, and political sentiment in japan is only getting stronger every day. might still not lose a lot of money on this.

Itll happen to some capacity imo

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