The 2021 NFL Draft Thread - there's no way to be Surtain

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Silly Burrito: Nov 27, 2007; SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Amy Pole Her posted:

Atlanta what the hell are you gonna do you bastards

I'm guessing they try to get a haul for #4, otherwise they get the QB of the future.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 02:10

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 21:45

Truther Vandross: Jun 17, 2008

https://twitter.com/jbook37/status/1382114269211201538?s=21

Lol they�re out here making up anything to poo poo on Fields

# ? Apr 15, 2021 02:17

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

Silly Burrito posted:

I'm guessing they try to get a haul for #4, otherwise they get the QB of the future.

I can�t decide if they have Fields and Trey Lance on the same level

# ? Apr 15, 2021 02:18

Professor Funk: Aug 4, 2008; WE ALL KNOW WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN

sportsgenius86 posted:

https://twitter.com/jbook37/status/1382114269211201538?s=21

Lol they�re out here making up anything to poo poo on Fields

I�m excited about Zach Wilson on the Jets but lmao at how many times we�ve heard �Zach Wilson sometimes throws more like a middle infielder than a quarterback!!� from draft pundits

# ? Apr 15, 2021 02:20

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

It's just them running out of things to actually talk about after spending the past 3 months talking about the draft.

The Packers blog I follow posted this interesting article: https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...wn-jacob-harris Basically using RAS + WROPS to try to dig up overlooked prospects who are not just elite athletes but produced well in college.

Quoting a couple blurbs on the players mentioned in the article...

quote:

Nico Collins - Michigan
There are some stone-age offenses in the Big Ten, but some still recruit well. Such is Michigan, where the lack of production that comes with Jim Harbaugh can serve to hide truly great prospects, and make no mistake, Nico Collins is one of them. Collins has been mocked anywhere from the 3rd to the 5th round, and he is an absolute steal in that range.

Collins is hurt by Michigan�s despicably terrible offensive philosophy and the fact that he opted out of the 2020 season. While his raw totals in 2019 don�t look terribly impressive, on a play-by-play basis he was one of the most explosive performers in college football, finishing 21st overall in WROPS. The only flaw in Collins� game was his Catch%, but given the state of Michigan�s offense and quarterbacks, that�s not terribly surprising. Collins was outstanding as a deep threat and in winning contested catches, but he also occasionally showed his potential on the route tree and he�s not as poor on medium and short routes as he is made out to be. With an accurate thrower, that catch percentage would soar pretty quickly.

What makes Collins all the more intriguing is his truly elite athleticism. Collins is a 6-4 monster with 4.43 straight line speed, but his 6.71 3-cone, in addition to an elite explosion grade make him a truly standout prospect.

He ranks 3rd overall in WRAPS behind only Chase and Kyle Pitts.

https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1375531388385042435

quote:

Jacob Harris - UCF
Harris is extremely raw, having barely played football before joining Central Florida. While he had a cup of coffee as a high school safety, he had more experience as a soccer player than a football player before attending college. Raw prospects are nothing new, but it�s unusual for them to be as productive as Harris was, ranking 69th in WROPS as a senior. Harris has been a starter for two years working out of the slot, and you�d like to see a better Catch% from your slot receiver, but you can�t argue with his production once he had the ball in his hands, as he averaged over 18 yards per reception.

That production could still just be a fluke of a good UCF offensive system that knows how to use its personnel. What makes Harris extremely interesting is his athletic profile, which is almost unbelievably good. Harris produced the 12th best RAS of any receiver since 1987, and it�s not an exaggeration to say that he has no physical weaknesses.

https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1377686988879491075

# ? Apr 15, 2021 02:28

Diva Cupcake: Aug 15, 2005

YOLOsubmarine posted:

You must really be crediting those Mac Jones to the 49ers rumors.

It makes no sense at all but you can�t ignore that literally every in-the-know insider is calling it for McCorkle.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 02:30

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

I like Nico collins a lot. I rate him higher than Dynami Brown.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 02:33

Silly Burrito: Nov 27, 2007; SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Amy Pole Her posted:

I can�t decide if they have Fields and Trey Lance on the same level

I'd say it's the Falcons and who the hell knows, but with them getting their GM from the Saints, they may start to make good decisions. :ohdear:

# ? Apr 15, 2021 03:01

Ches Neckbeard: Dec 3, 2005; You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

sportsgenius86 posted:

https://twitter.com/jbook37/status/1382114269211201538?s=21

Lol they’re out here making up anything to poo poo on Fields

Kyler and Mahomes being baseball players good but bad with Fields? This is getting Lamar Jackson levels of stupid commentary.

Ches Neckbeard fucked around with this message at 04:55 on Apr 15, 2021

# ? Apr 15, 2021 03:15

Rectal Placenta: Feb 25, 2011

Sad King Billy posted:

Come across some more good names that deserve success

Isaiahh Loudermilk

It's even better because he played for Wisconsin.

The Most Wisconsin Name on the team has now been taken over by Cam Large.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 04:10

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

https://www.thedraftscout.com/p/matt-millers-scouting-notebook-team?r=bv70f&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

Im very happy for Flores. I just hope Parsons said it back.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 13:22

Rad Valtar: May 31, 2011; Someday coach Im going to throw for 6 TDs in the Super Bowl.

Sit your ass down Steve.

sportsgenius86 posted:

https://twitter.com/jbook37/status/1382114269211201538?s=21

Lol they�re out here making up anything to poo poo on Fields

Fields hasn�t played baseball in over two years. This whole narrative is starting to piss me off because we all know why all of these �concerns� are creeping up.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 13:25

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

Rad Valtar posted:

Fields hasn�t played baseball in over two years. This whole narrative is starting to piss me off because we all know why all of these �concerns� are creeping up.

Can't believe Rhule is spreading these rumors in the press to make him drop

smdh

Also Panthers sent their OC and QB coach to his 2nd pro day

https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/1382288587547414530?s=20

FizFashizzle fucked around with this message at 13:46 on Apr 15, 2021

# ? Apr 15, 2021 13:42

Diva Cupcake: Aug 15, 2005

Posting some bits from the Kiper/McShay QA

quote:

What percentage chance would you assign to Mac Jones, Trey Lance and Justin Fields going No. 3 to the 49ers? (via @EvanStrothers)
Kiper: This is a really interesting question, and the answer could evolve over the next two weeks. But right now, there's no denying the way it's trending. All the buzz I've heard is that 49ers general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan traded up nine spots because they covet Jones. They see him as the perfect fit in Shanahan's system and the quarterback to put them over the top. This is the way it works sometimes with quarterbacks -- teams find their guy, and they pull out all the stops to get him. Jones is my fourth-ranked quarterback and is No. 12 on my Big Board. I don't see superstar potential from him, but he could be a very solid starter.

So to answer the question directly, here's how I'd lay out the percentages as of today: 80% to Jones, 15% to Lance, 5% to Fields.

What's a pick you could see happening that would break most mocks? (via @CheeseSando)
McShay: Well, following up on what Mel just said, it'd be the Niners taking either Trey Lance or Justin Fields. Those early picks going a different direction are the most likely ones to "break a mock" because of how many picks it could mix up afterward, and right now, a change in the wind direction for San Francisco is the most likely thing that could happen in that regard.

Everything we're hearing right now indicates Shanahan is targeting Mac Jones at No. 3, and it makes sense in a lot of ways. I can't shake this feeling that it's just going to play out a different way, though, and I don't think he's as talented as Lance or Fields. There will be plenty of intrigue when the 49ers are on the clock.

Another one to watch, albeit a little further down the board: What do Bill Belichick and the Patriots do at No. 15? New England spent, spent and spent some more in free agency, and it brought back Cam Newton on a one-year deal. It was an un-Patriot-like approach, so is it now possible we see an un-Patriot-like first round and a trade up for a QB? It might not be what Belichick is used to, but it's a different time in the post-Tom Brady era, and New England is adjusting. Keep a close eye on the Pats.

Which team is most likely to move up in this draft if one of the top QBs slides? (via @mattcoop_13)
Kiper: Let's rank them. Here's how I'd put four teams, with the most likely at the top:

New England: The Patriots don't usually have a pick as high as No. 15. Can Bill Belichick & Co. really afford to wait for a franchise quarterback? The 2022 class is not nearly as good as this one.

Denver: Are the Broncos sold on Drew Lock? They have the No. 9 pick and wouldn't have to move up as many spots. They could also pick the best player available and give Lock one more year to prove he's a legit NFL starter.

Washington: These next two teams rank here because of where they are in Round 1. At No. 19, Washington would have to give up a lot to move a few spots. It does have an extra third-round pick from the Trent Williams trade last year.

Chicago: The Bears gave Andy Dalton a one-year deal, but at No. 20, they'd have to really love a quarterback to trade up. General manager Ryan Pace, though, could be desperate to get his guy.

Who has the most exciting/interesting pick in the draft? (via @KBbrewhaha)
Kiper: I'll go with the Bengals, who have the No. 5 pick and must love the way this draft is playing out. Because we'll see at least three quarterbacks in the top four picks -- and potentially a fourth, depending on what Atlanta does at No. 4 -- Cincinnati could have its pick of the top non-quarterback in this draft. That's rare.

The Bengals' debate should come down to wideout Ja'Marr Chase, who was Joe Burrow's teammate at LSU and caught 20 touchdown passes from Burrow in 2019; tight end Kyle Pitts, who is my second-ranked prospect and is one of the best tight ends I've ever graded; or offensive tackle Penei Sewell, who would plug a significant weakness along the Bengals' O-line. They're also in position to trade back a few spots and pick up prime capital if they want. They can't go wrong here, but this is a pick that will cause dominoes to fall in the rest of the top 10.

Is there a player and team that you think are an absolutely perfect fit together? (via @kyledc202)
McShay: Northwestern offensive tackle Rashawn Slater and the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 13. Slater is not as long as Penei Sewell, but he's a classic left tackle in terms of his footwork, balance and technique.

He can get to the second level, which helps with the run game. He can pass protect on the edge, which is crucial now that the Chargers have a young franchise QB in Justin Herbert. And he brings mobility, which fits perfectly with the run-pass options and screen stuff that the Chargers' offense runs with Herbert. Los Angeles has been looking for an elite OT for a while, and Slater fits the bill.

Who could be the surprise first-round pick this year? (via @DRAFTPLEX)
Kiper: This is fun, and @DRAFTPLEX mentioned linebacker Jordyn Brooks last year and safety Darnell Savage in 2019 as past "surprise" picks. I have three options here -- all from the ACC -- and again these are just guys who could be surprising first-round picks, not that I'm projecting them to be:

Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina: He's my third-ranked back, but it wouldn't be shocking if a team at the end of Round 1 liked him a little more than Najee Harris and Travis Etienne. There's not much separating the top three. Williams is a really good pass-catcher.

Hunter Long, TE, Boston College: He might end up as the second tight end off the board, and he's a better blocker than Kyle Pitts. Long led led all FBS tight ends with 57 catches last season. He's a complete tight end, and we know NFL teams covet those players.

Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina: Yes, another Tar Heel here. Brown is a big-time deep threat -- he put up more than 1,000 yards and averaged 20 yards per catch in each of the last two seasons -- with great hands.

Who's the most undervalued WR in this draft, and why is it Shi Smith? (via @mackbellamy6783)
McShay: I do love Smith -- I wrote about him earlier this week -- and he certainly helped himself out with a strong Senior Bowl week. He accelerates to top speed quickly and can go up to get some passes despite being 5-foot-10. But he struggles a little when he's pushed around by physical corners, and I think he is probably a Day 3 pick. So I'm sorry, @mackbellamy6783, but this has to be Minnesota's Rashod Bateman.

Bateman might be the best route runner not named DeVonta Smith in the draft class, and he has very strong hands in traffic. He knows how to use his body to box out defenders on contested throws, and he's a strong runner after the catch. He also ran faster than we expected at his pro day, clocking his 40-yard dash at 4.39. I like the JuJu Smith-Schuster comp for Bateman, and I think he could be a very talented starter either outside or in the slot in the NFL.

Will Kwity Paye or Jaelan Phillips be the first edge rusher selected? (via @vikings_cg)
Kiper: Paye. He has 10-sack-a-year potential if he can improve his technique. He has tremendous potential, and that's what teams draft for. He should be off the board by Arizona at No. 16.

Phillips has upside as a pure pass-rusher, but his injury history -- he dealt with concussions at UCLA before he transferred to Miami -- means he's not likely to be the first edge defender off the board.

The big thing today is versatility, but which prospects seem extremely scheme-restricted? (via @CD3_allday)
McShay: Instead of painting these guys as restricted, I'm looking at their fits as a positive. NFL teams know exactly what they are getting with players who excel in a particular scheme. If you're a team looking for a player to fill a certain role, you're thrilled to land a player who, while not ultra-versatile, is excellent within the confines of your specific offense or defense. And those teams will value those players higher. So with that in mind, here are three guys who could really stand out in a particular system and role at the next level:

Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: If you play a lot of press-man coverage and are looking for a long, physical cornerback, Horn is the guy. He makes it really tough for receivers to get off the line and into their routes, and he's competitive on 50-50 balls. But if you are looking for a corner to play more in space, he might not be as effective as Patrick Surtain II or Caleb Farley.

Azeez Ojulari, OLB, Georgia: I'm not saying that 3-4 OLB is the only role that Ojulari can play, but it's certainly the one that makes the most sense. I just don't see a good fit as a true defensive end in a 4-3. He's 6-foot-4 and 249 pounds, and he ran a 4.61 in the 40. He is a menace as an edge rusher, and he can drop and cover. Look at what the Steelers and Ravens do on defense, for instance. He'd be a great fit there.

Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington: Not many NFL teams would ask Onwuzurike to anchor blockers. He's 6-foot-3 and 290 pounds, and he has 4.86 speed. Onwuzurike is at his best when he's turned loose to get upfield and disrupt, and that's why I think he's the perfect 3-technique in a 4-3 scheme.

Is Penei Sewell sliding? (via @MarkN1ssen)
Kiper: It's possible Sewell is being undervalued because of two reasons. For one, the quarterback class is in such demand that we could see five picked in the top 10, which means other prospects could drop. And Sewell didn't play in 2020, which means he was sort of out of sight, out of mind. But if you turn on his 2019 tape at Oregon, you see a dominant left tackle and instant NFL starter.

So maybe Sewell won't go in the top three, but I don't see him sliding out of the top 10. Cincinnati at No. 5 or Carolina at No. 8 are his most likely landing spots as it stands.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 14:28

Grittybeard: Mar 29, 2010; Bad, very bad!

I still don't believe all the Mac Jones stuff because, well, it seems utterly insane. But I have to salute the 49ers for running one hell of a misinformation campaign on every draft guy in the world if they aren't actually interested.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 14:44

The Big Jesus: Oct 29, 2007; #essereFerrari

I think the Falcons aren't going to trade back until draft night (if at all) because most of their partners would be very interested in fields are wary of the Mac Jones thing being a smokescreen. They probably have their deal worked out with whatever partner already, but we won't know until 45 minutes into the draft.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 15:00

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

I'm going to cry if the Pats manage to trade up over the Broncos

# ? Apr 15, 2021 15:00

Cavauro: Jan 9, 2008

i won't let them

# ? Apr 15, 2021 15:03

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Cavauro posted:

i won't let them

you're the bestest friend i never knew i had

# ? Apr 15, 2021 15:04

Cavauro: Jan 9, 2008

[sweating, thinking if my team trades with them i won't be able to come to this place any longer!]

# ? Apr 15, 2021 15:05

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Cavauro posted:

[sweating, thinking if my team trades with them i won't be able to come to this place any longer!]

i will forgive you. no one can control the mighty bengals.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 15:06

Pain of Mind: Jul 10, 2004; You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t

Was looking up old drafts and got very confused that Josh Allen was drafted #7 2 years in a row.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 15:12

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

The Bengals would be absolutely stupid not to trade down with Carolina if they made an offer. Carolina trading would pretty much only be for fields and that means two picks for three guys.

That said the Bengals are absolutely stupid so, you know.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 15:21

GOOD TIMES ON METH: Mar 17, 2006; Fun Shoe

No, the Bengals shouldn't trade down if it means they miss on all of Sewell/Pitts/Chase without getting an unfair amount of picks in return. Trading back 3 spots gets them maybe a late 2nd or a 3rd+4th? Who cares

# ? Apr 15, 2021 15:25

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

GOOD TIMES ON METH posted:

No, the Bengals shouldn't trade down if it means they miss on all of Sewell/Pitts/Chase without getting an unfair amount of picks in return. Trading back 3 spots gets them maybe a late 2nd or a 3rd+4th? Who cares

I'm picturing a scenario where four quarterbacks go and Carolina's trading up for the fifth. I think that scenario is probably unlikely, but the only second Carolina has is equivalent in value to ours, from memory it's actually the pick after ours.

To me all three of Chase Pitts and Sewell would be great additions, and even if Carolina actually traded up for one of them I'd be perfectly fine with Slater and an extra early second. If the only guy left at 8 is a receiver It gives you the option to double down on offensive line, if it's Sewell or Slater it gives you the option to either address the defense and receiver, double dip at o-line, etc. I would love to have an extra pick in the top 50 of this draft class, It's stacked at Bengals positions of need.

Eifert Posting fucked around with this message at 15:46 on Apr 15, 2021

# ? Apr 15, 2021 15:43

GOOD TIMES ON METH: Mar 17, 2006; Fun Shoe

Ok, sure I guess would be fine with the Bengals trading 5 for 8 + 39. I don't know why you think this is realistic or something worth talking about because it would be stupid for Carolina to do but maybe they really really hate second round picks or something.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 16:10

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

That's just what I'd take. I likely wouldn't for anything else. I could see them doing it if they are afraid of Miami or the Lions but I do think it's unlikely.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 16:14

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

Panthers won�t be doing anything that makes it harder to draft Richie Grant.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 16:20

mastershakeman: Oct 28, 2008; by vyelkin

why does it feel like every pick after about 15 is sifting through the scrap heap, is it because there's no dominant edge rushers this year moving everyone else down?

# ? Apr 15, 2021 16:25

Ches Neckbeard: Dec 3, 2005; You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

All the edge rushers this year are back half of the 1st/early 2nds in a normal draft.

Back half of the first is where they chaos really begins every year. It doesn't really feel that abnormal to me honestly.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 16:29

Grittybeard: Mar 29, 2010; Bad, very bad!

mastershakeman posted:

why does it feel like every pick after about 15 is sifting through the scrap heap, is it because there's no dominant edge rushers this year moving everyone else down?

It probably feels like that most years I'd guess? I have a couple of lottery tickets I'm partial to at least that have no chance to go early, so there are still guys to look forward to seeing how they turn out at least.

Aside from the reality that plenty of guys you've never heard of unless you're really into this stuff are going to be awesome.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 16:34

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

My opinion is there are plenty of defensive players worth a late first round pick in this draft class, but there's no real clear top 10 pick. Your best arguments are probably Parsons who's got the character concerns and the corner with a bum back. My impression at least is that picks 16 through 32 are going to be pretty heavy on the defense.

I might be forgetting an obvious example but this feels like the first draft class in a while where there wasn't an obvious number one edge or interior defensive lineman who merrited at a top 10/5 pick.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 16:45

mastershakeman: Oct 28, 2008; by vyelkin

Eifert Posting posted:

My opinion is there are plenty of defensive players worth a late first round pick in this draft class, but there's no real clear top 10 pick. Your best arguments are probably Parsons who's got the character concerns and the corner with a bum back. My impression at least is that picks 16 through 32 are going to be pretty heavy on the defense.

I might be forgetting an obvious example but this feels like the first draft class in a while where there wasn't an obvious number one edge or interior defensive lineman who merrited at a top 10/5 pick.

2020: 2 line/edge top 10, including #2
2019: 4 line/edge top 10, including #2-4
2018: 1 line/edge top 10, #5
2017: 2 line/edge top 10, including #1&3
2016: 3 line/edge top 10, including #3

2012 is the last time this happened: luck, rg3, trent richardson (lmbo), kalil (who didnt pan out but was a sure thing), blackmon, claiborne, barron, tannehill, kuechly, gillmore . so 4 off ball defensive players.

2021 is weird as hell! even 2018 had chubb&roquan at edge/ilb. this draft may well have parsons and a couple corners high though

mastershakeman fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Apr 15, 2021

# ? Apr 15, 2021 16:52

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Ches Neckbeard posted:

Kyler and Mahomes being baseball players good but bad with Fields? This is getting Lamar Jackson levels of stupid commentary.

Don't forget Russell Wilson

# ? Apr 15, 2021 17:24

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Already assembling Mac Jones bad takes to replicate the Justin Herbert call out post

# ? Apr 15, 2021 17:53

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

I've still got two years for Josh Herbert to turn into a pumpkin before anyone can call me out.

I'm sure it'll happen, any day now. :ohdear:

# ? Apr 15, 2021 17:55

YOLOsubmarine: Oct 19, 2004; When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Doltos posted:

Already assembling Mac Jones bad takes to replicate the Justin Herbert call out post

You don�t have to think Jones sucks to think it�s wild that he�d go above Fields.

He�s basically the anti-Herbert, an extremely polished prospect that�s limited physically. Those aren�t the types of guys that are in style right now.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 20:01

Ort: Jul 3, 2005; Proud graduate of the Andy Reid coaching clinic.

It�s kind of funny since Sir Thomas Brady would not fit that style despite his many super bowl victories. Cognitive dissonance among all coaches.

# ? Apr 15, 2021 20:07

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

I'm going to post the draft game thread tonight and I'm making my picks and it's loving hard. The linemen dry up a lot faster than you'd expect.

Eifert Posting fucked around with this message at 20:14 on Apr 15, 2021

# ? Apr 15, 2021 20:10

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 21:45

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

This is my shocked face

https://twitter.com/allbrightnfl/status/1382773472141578240?s=21

# ? Apr 15, 2021 20:11

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > The 2021 NFL Draft Thread - there's no way to be Surtain

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