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Sinteres posted:That Shia-dominated group of countries are exactly why Israel's linked with a number of Sunni countries, so China might not prefer Israel over all those What Hezbollah did was prevent Israel from achieving its goals. Which, in a defensive war is a win. If you look at the casualty figures you of course can see why Hezbollah is hesitant to have a do-over.
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May 15, 2021 19:24
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Count Roland posted:What Hezbollah did was prevent Israel from achieving its goals. Which, in a defensive war is a win. If you look at the casualty figures you of course can see why Hezbollah is hesitant to have a do-over. Hesbollah has lost ~10x that many fighting in the syrian civil war (which they've been doing in large part explicitly in exchange for rockets and missiles and promises of support in the event of a future showdown with Israel) so idk what you're really basing this off of at all. Like 4 or 5 years ago there was concern that they were losing a significant amount of man power, but consensus is now much more that they've gained a lot of experience and materiel as a result of it.
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May 15, 2021 19:30
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Hesbollah has lost ~10x that many fighting in the syrian civil war (which they've been doing in large part explicitly in exchange for rockets and missiles and promises of support in the event of a future showdown with Israel) so idk what you're really basing this off of at all. Like 4 or 5 years ago there was concern that they were losing a significant amount of man power, but consensus is now much more that they've gained a lot of experience and materiel as a result of it. Firstly, I'd love for you to link to anything about this consensus. I haven't read anything reliable about Hezbollah's strength after the Syrian war. Secondly, I'm only implying that Hezbollah hasn't been keen on getting into an open confrontation v Israel again. I'm basing this off the fact they haven't done so despite numerous attacks by Israel. This was in reply to Sinteres' complaint that some people think Hezbollah kicked Israel's rear end in 2006 and could do so again, which isn't really what happened.
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May 15, 2021 19:38
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PittTheElder posted:It's happened a lot, Israel would not have survived the rounds of post-Independence wars without first European, and later American support. They haven’t needed help in my lifetime
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May 15, 2021 19:39
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Sinteres posted:If Hezbollah saw it as such a victory, they would have started another war by now instead of carefully avoiding any provocation even when Israel bombs them. this is a little disingenuous considering hezbollah's has been majorly committed in syria for most of the last decade. even if hezbollah internally viewed 2006 as a major military victory, they and their backers may simply have political goals that aren't served by a war with israel, even if they thought they would win another military victory
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May 15, 2021 19:39
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Sinteres posted:That Shia-dominated group of countries are exactly why Israel's linked with a number of Sunni countries, so China might not prefer Israel over all those countries, but once you throw in KSA and the UAE it could be different story. Of course the US loving off could cause all sorts of realignments, so who knows where everyone would land, but if Russia can so far balance its interests in Turkey, Syria and Israel, I don't see why the US de-emphasizing its role in the region would suddenly make the Russian position more rather than less difficult. Because currently both China and Russia can hide behind U.S. as a "hey, what ya gonna do?" If they're suddenly loving up a chance for changing the status quo, the eye is on them being the deciding factors. There is just nothing to gain from that position, especially when it has been the biggest stone in U.S's shoe in the region for ages. Why would they pick it up? Israel does not provide anything economically or strategically that other countries don't provide. Saudis still don't have official diplomatic relations, there is a shell game of intelligence cooperation behind all of that because of the Shia threat but the same fanatics pushing for that aren't going to be happy with overt support either. quote:I think you're underestimating Europe's attachment to Israel. Just look at how much trouble Corbyn's position on Israel caused. Even if it's 100% manufactured smear machine poo poo, it still worked. I don't think it was really that big of a factor in Corbyn's loss (Starmer is faring arguably worse), and that stuff is more WWII guilt then love for Israel either way, and that guilt is dying off too. I mean I am European and I've never met a pro-Israeli person that wasn't an Evangelical kook. Most are just ambivalent, and the left identifies with Palestine to a frankly oversized degree. Support for Palestinian statehood is increasing. https://www.inquisitr.com/1601482/more-european-nations-united-kingdom-sweden-recognizing-palestinian-statehood/ https://www.vox.com/2014/7/29/5948255/israel-world-opinion Adding them to the long list of countries under some type of sanctions won't really be that controversial if the U.S. won't go ballistic. quote:And the far right in Europe seem to be developing an attachment to Israel as they focus their hatred against Muslims. Far right in Europe isn't really in power except in few non-entities like Hungary, Slovakia and Poland and holy poo poo do those guys love their actual antisemitism. See Poland's recent spat with Israel or Hungary having made Soros the Great Satan or the far-right still being responsible for most anti-semitic attacks. The same group of countries aren't making any friends with the rest of the EU either. Nobody is going to go to bat for Israel if sanctions are talked if they didn't do that for Russia. Especially if they can win some sort of concession from rest of the EU in the process in the approximately three hundred intra-Europe issues that mean more to them than Israel. quote:'China and Russia only persecute/commit genocide against some of their minorities to protect their sovereignty so maybe they will care about Palestinians' seems like a stretch to me. Care about Palestinians themselves? No. Care more about the strategic and cash money opportunities given by Arabs/Muslims? Yep. Neither Russia nor China are motivated by some sort of burning hate for Muslims. Frankly, it is hard to make any determinate claims because the geopolitical situation where U.S. has hosed off from Israel and presumably the Middle East as a whole is hard to predict because that poo poo is so far off to the future that the world is very different. But the indicators are not going in Israel's favor. The sheer demographic and economic heft of the Muslim world, growing instead of decreasing, means that ultimately Israel is going to lose. The only way it can win is if the Muslim world stops entirely giving a poo poo about Palestine, which I don't see likely either. quote:If you mean Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in the first place, that's one thing, but the internet dramatically overstates Hezbollah's "win" over Israel in 2006. If Hezbollah saw it as such a victory, they would have started another war by now instead of carefully avoiding any provocation even when Israel bombs them. Considering Israel's aims in both times it was sent back from Lebanon, they got beat. Also just because you win a defensive war doesn't mean there isn't a cost that discourages you from driving for new one. Hezbollah has been a bit distracted by internal and Syrian issues for close to a decade now, they don't want a third front. DarkCrawler fucked around with this message at 19:51 on May 15, 2021 |
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May 15, 2021 19:48
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:this is a little disingenuous considering hezbollah's has been majorly committed in syria for most of the last decade. even if hezbollah internally viewed 2006 as a major military victory, they and their backers may simply have political goals that aren't served by a war with israel, even if they thought they would win another military victory DarkCrawler posted:Considering Israel's aims in both times it was sent back from Lebanon, they got beat. Also just because you win a defensive war doesn't mean there isn't a cost that discourages you from driving for new one. I think it's totally fair to acknowledge that Israel didn't win, and maybe even lost by their own objectives, but it's hard to see what Hezbollah actually won beyond their continued survival. They certainly didn't provide Israel with the kind of stinging losses that would reduce their capabilities in a future conflict, while their own capabilities almost certainly were at least temporarily degraded. There were still almost five years before the Syrian Civil War kicked off, and Hezbollah didn't launch any more cross border raids like the one that presaged the 2006 war in that time frame. While the agreement may not have been comprehensively implemented, Hezbollah did give up things in the cease fire too, like handing over control of border positions to the Lebanese Army. And it's not just a matter of Hezbollah failing to initiate conflict via cross border raids or shows of solidarity with the Palestinians during the various conflicts since (including now, when their involvement in Syria has dropped off considerably), but that Israel feels free to bomb Hezbollah's supply lines and Iranian patrons in Syria (I did some more research and found out Israel mostly tries not to hit Hezbollah themselves, though it does happen) with impunity. Of course there's a threshold beyond which I think Hezbollah would act again, but I don't think Hezbollah likes their odds in a second conflict, because they know how costly the first one was. Maybe not even directly to Hezbollah themselves, but to Lebanon as a country, which will 100% be held hostage in any future conflict. Plus their recent experience in the Syrian Civil War showed them just how much better off the side with air power ultimately does in a prolonged conflict than the side without.
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May 15, 2021 20:11
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The number of Gaza dead up to 139, including 39 children and 22 women, and the wounded 1000
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May 15, 2021 20:19
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Count Roland posted:Firstly, I'd love for you to link to anything about this consensus. I haven't read anything reliable about Hezbollah's strength after the Syrian war. Eh no one publicly is sharing really good data on hesbullah's capabilities, but what we know is that they've remained able to have thousands of fighters in syria indefinitely for almost a decade so the earlier concerns that perhaps attrition would limit their capabilities clearly have not come to pass. They remain very well funded and well armed and now they have an additional 8 years of combat experience spread throughout their members. Significantly wrt Israel, Iran has been continually sending them missiles the entire time. The main hesbullah assets Israel has targeted have been missile shipments to them from Iran, which have been constant throughout the conflict. As to the second part, yeah I'd agree with the factual statement that they haven't been in a rush to end up fighting on two fronts, but I'd urge a ton of caution in interpreting that as the result of some particular fear of the idf. If anything the fear is on the civilian toll when Israel starts blowing up lebanese apartment buildings again.
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May 15, 2021 20:40
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I think one additional factor that might concern Hezbollah about a repeat is the possibility that nobody would put a stop to it this time. Bush was pretty clearly dragging his feet on pushing Israel to end the offensive until it got bogged down, but what if it got bogged down again and Israel just kept bombing them indefinitely? As I said in another context earlier, the region is pretty used to devastating aerial bombardments now, with Russia and the US pasting cities in just the last few years, and Saudi Arabia's massive starvation campaign in Yemen, so what if nobody bothered to tell Israel to cut it out? I guess Russia would probably like Hezbollah to maintain its ability to prop up the Syrian regime, so that's one voice, but Hezbollah made a lot of enemies who'd be happy to see them fall for that same reason. Remember when Saudi Arabia kidnapped the prime minister of Lebanon and everyone kind of shrugged for a while until they released him and then even he sort of pretended it never happened?
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May 15, 2021 20:55
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Presumably regional war given their very close ties to Iran and Syria. Sympathy for the lebanese and palestinians would almost definitely draw others like egypt and jordan in in some capacity as well. Plus they'd probably shoot their 100,000+ rockets and missiles (or whatever number they're up to now, it's a staggeringly large number of missiles) back at Israel. And those are proper munitions and not mostly crude homemade stuff.
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May 15, 2021 21:24
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While Israel bombs Gaza... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpltW8vbuCg
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May 15, 2021 22:17
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https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1393672450928480262?s=19
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May 15, 2021 22:23
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A jargogle posted:Wait who in israel is even authorising and pushing for this? Is there a decent article for background info to cover the month of political activity, because the confusing info I can find seems to imply that the election in march this year led to a failure to form a government for netanyahu and that the coalition formation fighting was rolling on as recent as last week? The very simple version is that for more than two years, Israeli politics have been deadlocked. On one side is Prime Minister Netanyahu's right-wing coalition, and on the other side is an awkward left-right alliance who've temporarily come together under the common cause of unseating him. They've had several elections in a row with no conclusive result. Every time, either both sides fall short of a majority, or the opposition alliance barely scrapes together an advantageous position only for Netanyahu to manage to destabilize their alliance long enough to cause them to blow their shot at victory. Because the opposition is divided ideologically, and half the parties in it are driven by personal ambition to take the PM slot themselves, it's very unstable and has so far consistently managed to fumble the ball whenever it really counts. This time, having engineered a split in the Arab parties, Netanyahu is hitting the opposition where it really hurts: racism. Half the parties in the anti-Netanyahu alliance are already anti-Arab enough that they refuse to officially ally with the Arab parties, and the Arab parties themselves are suspicious of how much they can really expect to get from the opposition. Dragging Palestine issues to the forefront with a war is a good way to highlight the backroom deals that they've had to draw up to get around that. It's effectively caused a couple of the farther-right parties to distance themselves from the opposition.
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May 15, 2021 22:28
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Yeah this couldn't have really worked out better for Bibi He's going to end up running the country again in a permanent status (not just temporarily) after it was looking a year or two ago like he might be done. I have no idea if he'll have enough power to quash that extremely slow prosecution he's dealing with though. Maybe someone else knows better than me.
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May 15, 2021 22:30
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He really seems more and more like the Israeli Putin. Assassinations (in the Occupied Territories and Iran), fomenting conflict and making territorial claims to strengthen his position, and somehow always managing to engineer the situation to his own benefit.
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May 15, 2021 22:39
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Part of the problem is that there hasn't been a major opposition to him in a long time Even a few years back, his main opposition was actually to the right of him on some issues.
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May 15, 2021 22:43
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Bibi can assassinate anyone in the Occupation Zones including long occupied Tel Aviv.
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May 15, 2021 22:58
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I know folks love repeating the whole "lol nothing matters" meme, but more Democrats than ever are coming out to support the Palestinian cause. Their being junior members now and unable to immediately flip decades of US policy overnight doesn't mean that that their outspokenness is insignificant. The more attention the Palestinian story gets in the public eye, the better. For that reason, contact your loving representatives. Assuming you're not stuck with a CHUD, politicians listen to the way the wind is blowing and may shift their positions in line with their constituents. It may not be a lot and it probably won't be enough, but it's still better than doing nothing. For that matter, get out to a local protest. https://twitter.com/szrzh2/status/1393606753321988102
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May 15, 2021 23:11
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Presumably regional war given their very close ties to Iran and Syria. Sympathy for the lebanese and palestinians would almost definitely draw others like egypt and jordan in in some capacity as well. Hezbollah made itself enemies backing Assad in Syria. There's no chance of Egypt or Jordan going against Israel in favour of Hezbollah, if anything they'd be discreetly aiding Israel, while publically condemning attacks on civilians.
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May 16, 2021 00:26
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Count Roland posted:Hezbollah made itself enemies backing Assad in Syria. There's no chance of Egypt or Jordan going against Israel in favour of Hezbollah, if anything they'd be discreetly aiding Israel, while publically condemning attacks on civilians. US aid certainly buys a lot of favor, but so far it has only ever really bought neutrality. Jordan and Egypt both have sizable palestinian populations as well as a ton of popular sympathy for the palestinians and neither is particularly enmeshed in the hardline sunni world that hesbullah has been at odds with. Jordan perhaps a bit, but Egypt has really nothing to do with it. If Israel is all out waging war against lebanon and palestine, at best their neighbors will be neutral.
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May 16, 2021 00:39
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Al-Ghoul wants it to be known that the status quo continues. https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1393707042771283969 Judakel fucked around with this message at 00:56 on May 16, 2021 |
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May 16, 2021 00:51
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Judakel posted:Al-Ghoul wants it to be known that the status quo continues. you may be interested to discover that there is a second tweet in that very thread https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1393707044251881472?s=20
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May 16, 2021 01:15
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That tweet also sucks
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May 16, 2021 01:19
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GreyjoyBastard posted:you may be interested to discover that there is a second tweet in that very thread 2nd tweet makes the first one worse.
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May 16, 2021 01:20
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The rhetorical blathering of "of course we support both sides achieving an equitable peace" is exactly what led to the events unfolding now. The United States has shat out identical statements for decades while directly funding the side that's already vastly more powerful than the other, even as it unabashedly commits ethnic cleansing to further destroy any possibility that peace will be equitable. At this point, BDS isn't enough. Bomb Israel.
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May 16, 2021 01:22
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I hope Netanyahu shits himself inside out and dies to be totally honest with everyone. And also for everyone defending and cheerleading the bombing of free press because "DURR BROWN PEEPL TERRORISMS" to be beaten with lead pipes.
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May 16, 2021 01:24
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Cugel the Clever posted:Bomb Israel. I disagree, and propose that bombing places is in fact bad and not cool.
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May 16, 2021 01:24
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Tweet one is approving of Israel bombing civilians and tweet two is asking Palestinians to just "cmon man" and not be so mad.
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May 16, 2021 01:25
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Yeah, I think the liberal Washington consensus is that if they support Abbas' security cooperation policy, that Israel will be kind enough to give concessions and that this would further the peace process, making resistance and outright violence unattractive. Of course this makes no sense, but if your priors are that you're never going to put any kind of pressure on Israel in the first place, this is the kind of blather that they get.
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May 16, 2021 01:26
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GreyjoyBastard posted:you may be interested to discover that there is a second tweet in that very thread We seek peaceful coexistence.
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May 16, 2021 01:34
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Count Roland posted:I disagree, and propose that bombing places is in fact bad and not cool. But (more) seriously, US support for these crimes is heinous and at this point I'm just going to stake out the maximalist position and maybe everyone can compromise on BDS.
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May 16, 2021 01:36
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Judakel posted:Al-Ghoul wants it to be known that the status quo continues. This brain dead rapist can go gently caress himself forever.
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May 16, 2021 01:43
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Tweet 1: We support your right to wage war. Tweet 2: If only we could have peace! That would be nice. If only the US had some sort of international power to do something.
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May 16, 2021 01:43
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Carew posted:https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1393577210964058115?s=20 https://twitter.com/besf0rt/status/1393583343523016706?s=20 ah, cool, cool
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May 16, 2021 01:46
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*vetoed a UN Resolution calling for a cease fire* The WH: “We are working with both sides to achieve a cease fire”
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May 16, 2021 01:52
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GreyjoyBastard posted:you may be interested to discover that there is a second tweet in that very thread It modifies nothing about the tweet I posted. Yes, it is the usual, untenable position of liberal zionists. He gave a carte blache to Israeli aggression towards Gaza.
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May 16, 2021 01:57
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GreyjoyBastard posted:you may be interested to discover that there is a second tweet in that very thread This is absolute birdbrain poo poo and you should be embarrassed for posting it
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May 16, 2021 02:19
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Cugel the Clever posted:At this point, BDS isn't enough. Bomb Israel. Bomb, dismantle, salt.
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May 16, 2021 02:24
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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GreyjoyBastard posted:you may be interested to discover that there is a second tweet in that very thread lmao that you thought this made biden look good
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May 16, 2021 02:32
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