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Gatts posted:Can the court be stacked before they vote on it? Congress can do whatever they want so long as they declare it constitutional. Something important to remember when considering judicial reform.
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May 17, 2021 16:37
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What bothers me the most is that people will just accept it. There will be some big marches but abortion will be gone and people will forget that it was ever something they had a right to. I don't know if this is an appropriate comment for the SCOTUS thread.
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May 17, 2021 16:48
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Why are these always written up as against Roe? Isn't Casey the controlling case now?
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May 17, 2021 17:17
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Casey is the controlling case but Roe is the milestone culturally so media just goes with that
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May 17, 2021 17:33
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So if they overturn Roe there’s another case that can save things? Edit: or would the solution be that from now till they decide on Roe v Wade that Congress pass like a bunch of laws to fix things or muddy the waters Gatts fucked around with this message at 17:56 on May 17, 2021 |
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May 17, 2021 17:47
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Realistically the Republicans are only taking this up so they can reduce women's civil rights, and they won't take up a case to challenge that unless there's a change in court composition.
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May 17, 2021 17:55
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No. They'd be overturning Roe and Casey at the same time or effectively doing so without saying it. I'm expecting either "the state has a compelling interest in unborn life so outright bans are a state choice, Casey (and Roe) are overturned" or "Casey and Roe are still technically good law but viability is so early now and those evil evil women are choosing to terminate pregnancies for no reason so state regulations (unsaid: that effectively ban abortions for everyone) to ensure there is no discriminating against black, disabled, female, etc etc fetuses are going on. So feel free to make women do steps A-ZZ, verifying it's medically necessary and not just to discriminate, before week 18 to get an abortion. Oops, you didn't realize you were pregnant until week 17? Guess you're stuck with the baby then lol"
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May 17, 2021 17:59
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This ruling is pretty lovely considering how the Court had previously struck down non-unanimous juries https://twitter.com/radleybalko/status/1394295807936012289?s=21
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May 17, 2021 18:03
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It's going to be freaking wild midterm elections if the Mississippi case is decided next Summer.
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May 17, 2021 18:18
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:What bothers me the most is that people will just accept it. There will be some big marches but abortion will be gone and people will forget that it was ever something they had a right to. I don't know if this is an appropriate comment for the SCOTUS thread. https://vimeo.com/77839995
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May 17, 2021 19:00
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If the legality of abortion reverts to the states, I would expect people in blue states to not care that much and not risk anything to help those in red states, because Americans are profoundly selfish and tribal enough to write off the red states as having made their own bed to lie in, as seen with the perennial "let's cut off all the red states and let them die without out tax money" articles whenever a republican becomes president. I hope I'm wrong, but unless it is explicitly stated as "abortion is now illegal in the United States," we'll get some big marches and angry interviews, but if the mechanisms to restore it don't exist in the government as it is constituted now, people will accept it as they have accepted every other supreme court decision.
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May 17, 2021 19:13
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aware of dog posted:https://twitter.com/scotusblog/status/1394284425224114176?s=21 I hope RBG burns in hell forever for her arrogance and she should probably save a spot for Breyer who seems inclined to follow suit for equally idiotic reasons. FlamingLiberal posted:This ruling is pretty lovely considering how the Court had previously struck down non-unanimous juries Jettison the SCOTUS into a volcano and start over. Antifa Turkeesian posted:I hope I'm wrong, but unless it is explicitly stated as "abortion is now illegal in the United States," we'll get some big marches and angry interviews, but if the mechanisms to restore it don't exist in the government as it is constituted now, people will accept it as they have accepted every other supreme court decision. At the very least you should expect Alito, Barret, and Thomas to write that abortion should be outlawed in its entirety. Beer might sign on to that as well but he's a definite vote for ending abortion in some way. Roberts probably wants to end it but knows the GOP loses a massive wedge issue if/when that happens and Gorsuch is Gorsuch. At the very least, Abortion rights are about to take a big hit. The only question is how big a hit Roberts and/or Gorsuch want to deliver to it.
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May 17, 2021 19:44
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Gorsuch is such a bad loving writer. Also "the court didn't do the right thing in a bunch of previous instances" as a defense to not do the right thing is incredible. Kagan correctly points out that even that reasoning doesn't hold. https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1394293954024198144?s=20 Groovelord Neato fucked around with this message at 20:27 on May 17, 2021 |
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May 17, 2021 20:22
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:What bothers me the most is that people will just accept it. There will be some big marches but abortion will be gone and people will forget that it was ever something they had a right to. I don't know if this is an appropriate comment for the SCOTUS thread. I suspect you're going to get a status quo where people with means can go to blue states for a long enough time to get their abortion or some people will just outright move there. You'll have long stretches of states where reproductive rights are very limited, but people will be racing out to the coasts or Illinois or Colorado or something like that. Rights will still exist, but you have to be in the right place and you'll see some really messy case scenarios of desperate women running away from abusive partners/spouses and those partners/spouses bringing law enforcement into it so you get horrible extradition disputes. It's depressing, but in a lot of ways I think many people have been dealing with that dynamic in terms of economic sustainability anyways. Many people my generation (Gen X) and younger have been barreling away from red states as fast as they can for their own sanity and prospects and leaving many of their home states to just go deeper red.
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May 17, 2021 21:39
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Some Guy TT posted:It's wild how the thousand years of conservative Supreme Court darkness appear to be on hold because the three Trump appointees come from completely different wings of the party and don't really like each other very much. In general I think it ia crazy that the rules governing our lives are basically up to how a handful of people feel about things. Cool that Elena Kagan decided to be nice and have a dinner party for Kavanaugh resulting in better rulings maybe. Not cool that the personal relationships of two people who are beholden to nobody should have so much impact on the wellbeing of hundreds of millions of people.
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May 17, 2021 22:30
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https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1394406874322198531?s=21
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May 17, 2021 22:39
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jfc Breyer what rock have you been living under
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May 17, 2021 22:49
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vyelkin posted:jfc Breyer what rock have you been living under Some pretty nice ones, I'm guessing. They wouldn't build the roof of that ivory tower out of just anything.
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May 17, 2021 23:24
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My one hope for the Supreme Court hearing the Mississippi abortion case is that the decision comes in right before the midterms and leads to massive wave of blue anger votes, which in turn could lead to better federal legislation on abortion. That's a lot of 'ifs', though. Things are looking grim. 
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May 18, 2021 01:39
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vyelkin posted:jfc Breyer what rock have you been living under Hopefully one that curshes him in the next year so that Biden can pick a replacement. ...please ignore that Manchin and Sinema will block a 2022 appointee "to let the people decide" since both of them are selfish assholes who, if the Dems get to 52+ seats by some miracle next year, will hopefully fall into a sinkhole full of fire ants.
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May 18, 2021 01:42
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Evil Fluffy posted:Hopefully one that curshes him in the next year so that Biden can pick a replacement. Good news! You probably don't have to worry about Dems getting 52+!
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May 18, 2021 02:04
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SCOTUS is a Super Senate with lifetime appointments. Stop dissembling and acknowledge what we all know to be true.
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May 18, 2021 02:29
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JordanKai posted:My one hope for the Supreme Court hearing the Mississippi abortion case is that the decision comes in right before the midterms and leads to massive wave of blue anger votes, which in turn could lead to better federal legislation on abortion. That's a lot of 'ifs', though. You know that if this happens then the GOP are hopelessly hosed right? They would win the battle but lose the entire war; Biden's gone on record and made it clear that if Roe vs Wade was overturned he'd have no choice but to make it the permanent law of the land, by any means necessary. They're already setting up a committee to see if the SC has political bias behind their agenda, what do you think's gonna happen if they spike the volley like that? Not only would the Republicans get absolutely spanked, but it would all but assure an expansion of the Supreme Court to 13 justices to reverse that decision and keep it that way. The majority voting demo just shifted to young Gen X and Millennials who identify as progressive or democrat by a whopping 60% bare-minimum. Doesn't matter how many voter suppression laws they would pass, you flat can't stop a voting force that large, it would be complete Red Ticket suicide. White Light fucked around with this message at 02:34 on May 18, 2021 |
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May 18, 2021 02:31
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Polling is dire for the GOP on this issue https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1394451432779177984
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May 18, 2021 02:35
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Charlz Guybon posted:Polling is dire for the GOP on this issue Why would GOP care about polls? They almost got Trump re-elected by everyone holding their nose and voting R even after four years... of Trump.
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May 18, 2021 03:25
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Charlz Guybon posted:Polling is dire for the GOP on this issue Polls are irrelevant. The GOP routinely kills things with massive approval and they suffer zero repercussions for it while also making sure to use their time in power to further remove the ability to actually be voted out (via targeted suppression like the recent GA bill) and to ensure even if they get voted out they still have control over the nation for decades (via rigging the courts) to buy them time as they weasel their way back in to power.
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May 18, 2021 04:25
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Parrotine posted:You know that if this happens then the GOP are hopelessly hosed right? They would win the battle but lose the entire war; Biden's gone on record and made it clear that if Roe vs Wade was overturned he'd have no choice but to make it the permanent law of the land, by any means necessary. Given the likely timing of when that decision comes out, Biden likely won't have the time to do anything before the GOP probably retakes the House and brings any actual governing (let alone anything progressive) to a screeching halt. If the decision comes out in June 2022, that leaves a bit over four months to convince Manchin, Sinema, and the other "decorum!" Democrats to pass a bill radically overhauling SCOTUS in some form, or pass a bill making Roe v Wade some kind of law, both of which would almost certainly require killing the filibuster to get passed, and none of that is likely to happen in that timeframe.
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May 18, 2021 06:10
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In the case abortion gets permabanned, I wish the EU or UN or somebody would put the screws to the US the way the US does to everyone else
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May 18, 2021 06:18
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azflyboy posted:Given the likely timing of when that decision comes out, Biden likely won't have the time to do anything before the GOP probably retakes the House and brings any actual governing (let alone anything progressive) to a screeching halt. I get what you're saying but I was talking more of how much it would effect midterm elections and most definitely the 2024 presidential election. It would be one of the rare times where democrats would retain the house, senate and probably pick up some more seats in Congress to brute force their way to killing the Filibuster. The GOP has always used Roe vs Wade as a way to drive out voters; take that away and you've killed a lot of motivation for many of those single-issue GOP voters while spiking turnout for progressives like nothing else. To be honest I don't see them pulling the trigger on it, because if they do it's gonna be a baaaaaaaaad time for Republicans.
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May 18, 2021 07:52
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Parrotine posted:I get what you're saying but I was talking more of how much it would effect midterm elections and most definitely the 2024 presidential election. It would be one of the rare times where democrats would retain the house, senate and probably pick up some more seats in Congress to brute force their way to killing the Filibuster. The GOP has always used Roe vs Wade as a way to drive out voters; take that away and you've killed a lot of motivation for many of those single-issue GOP voters while spiking turnout for progressives like nothing else. I don’t think there are single-issue republicans any more. The way politics functions as identity for republicans means they’ll stay because they have nothing else and nowhere to go. Gun control has been a dead issue for 20 years, but gun nuts have continued to vote republican.
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May 18, 2021 12:28
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:In the case abortion gets permabanned, I wish the EU or UN or somebody would put the screws to the US the way the US does to everyone else having the global reserve currency means that no one can "put the screws" to you without blowing their own heads half off in the process
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May 18, 2021 12:45
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azflyboy posted:Given the likely timing of when that decision comes out, Biden likely won't have the time to do anything before the GOP probably retakes the House and brings any actual governing (let alone anything progressive) to a screeching halt. Manchin also isn't going to put up a fight over abortion because he cares first and foremost about getting reelected in a blood red state where going to the mat to defend abortion will guarantee he loses his seat.
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May 18, 2021 12:52
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Breyer has dissented in some of the most blatantly partisan decisions in the Court's modern history and is still this much of a dupe.
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May 18, 2021 13:51
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:I don’t think there are single-issue republicans any more. The way politics functions as identity for republicans means they’ll stay because they have nothing else and nowhere to go. Gun control has been a dead issue for 20 years, but gun nuts have continued to vote republican. Although I do know there are still quite a few single issue Republican voters out there (both my parents and a chunk of people in my state of Texas), I do agree with that 'nowhere to go' assessment. At this point the primary motivation for what I've seen over here is Own The Libs over all else, that may be enough given the tribalism that's cultivated over the past decades. I guess every election is gonna boil down to a Right To Fight mentality, and that flat sucks
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May 18, 2021 14:47
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:In the case abortion gets permabanned, I wish the EU or UN or somebody would put the screws to the US the way the US does to everyone else
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May 18, 2021 15:06
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And after someone died horribly, so let's hope the US moves a little faster (but it probably won't)
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May 18, 2021 15:10
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There are no more single-issue Republican voters, unless "whatever Fox News tells them to do" is considered a single issue. The propaganda is out of loving control in this culture and I have no idea how it is fixed without some serious crackdown on the media, which would never happen due to the media being owned by the only citizens of this country that matter: billionaires. Also, for those of you hoping Democrats grow a spine before 2022 and take drastic matters like nuking filibusters: you should read up on the paradox of tolerance of the intolerant. Democrats will always be tolerant because they care more about polls or poo poo and are hanging onto power currently by a loving thread. Republicans can now always be intolerant to anything besides what the aforementioned billionaires owners/handlers desire them to do.
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May 18, 2021 20:10
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Yeah, the right has become so insular that they might as well be living in a completely different reality. They only consume news from sources that feed their worldview, and anything that contradicts that no matter how provably factual is "fake news". As a result you can't even really sit down and debate with modern conservatives in good faith - even if they themselves think they also want that good faith. Even a clampdown on traditional media like Fox News couldn't really reverse that at this point: conservatives will just blame the deep state for censoring the inconvenient truth and flock to Facebook, Twitter, Parler, etc for their delusions. You'd need to undertake PRC levels of societal information and media control. As for the filibuster, the Dems need every last (D) vote to nuke it and Manchin, Sinema, etc almost certainly won't play ball. Back to the actual topic of the thread, my guess is at a minimum Kav and Roberts recognize how monumentally stupid it would be to overturn Casey or Roe v Wade in their entirety at this point in time. If they go full Theocracy and declare abortions illegal baby murder, the outrage will absolutely be at a level that the Dems could very well pickup seats in the midterm and have enough non-shithead senators to start actually governing. Better to take a death by a thousand cuts approach - at least for now - and just rule that it's legal to throw up more bullshit barriers to abortion such that it is functionally unavailable in red states.
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May 18, 2021 21:13
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DTurtle posted:I expect the opposite to happen. This is something that could easily be a humongous Pyrrhic victory for Republicans and really motivate people to come out and vote them out. A post-Roe world is one in which the horror of not having easy access to abortion services will become front and center again - to an extent not seen in fifty years. Visiting the "Letters to The Army of Three" exhibition by Andrea Bowers in a museum in Bremen, Germany really drove that home to me. It consists of tons and tons and tons of letters written to one group of three women who had a list of doctors who could provide abortion services. So many heart-breaking stories in just a few lines of text every time. Andrea Bowers also made a video of people reading some of those letters here: It's interesting seeing liberals give up and just redefine losing as winning. "Once the Republicans take away all our civil rights, then people will finally have to vote for us and we'll win by default forever, right guys? Right?" E: Antifa Turkeesian posted:If the legality of abortion reverts to the states, I would expect people in blue states to not care that much and not risk anything to help those in red states, because Americans are profoundly selfish and tribal enough to write off the red states as having made their own bed to lie in, as seen with the perennial "let's cut off all the red states and let them die without out tax money" articles whenever a republican becomes president. Like those Michael Moore posts about how red states shouldn't get any vaccines as punishment for voting wrong. Remember how long liberals were mad when RBG died and got replaced lol VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 21:53 on May 18, 2021 |
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May 18, 2021 21:50
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VitalSigns posted:It's interesting seeing liberals give up and just redefine losing as winning. Most of them just don't care because deep down they know they're rich enough to be perfectly fine (Pelosi and co) in a Republican hellscape or that we're truly lost if we abandon any pretense of  (Breyer and co).
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May 18, 2021 21:54
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