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Beelzebufo posted:The first point is just occam's razor. The simplest explanation for an unkown object behaving like we know flying objects can is that the most proximate intelligent source, ie. humans, is the cause. Maybe its aliens, but again, why would they spend decades spying on us, just one the edge of our ability to detect them? Isn't the more obvious scenario the actors we know would be spying on each other? I'm more agnostic here however. Maybe some of these encounters truly are unexplainable from a human source, though I haven't seen any yet. FTL is probably impossible, though I haven't ruled out yet that our theories have some holes here and there. The reasons for interstellar expeditions coming for us are kind of obvious. What would we do if we had a bit better tech and suddenly found an alien civilization nearby? We would start sending drones. We (hopefully) wouldn't just drop by and say "Hi", as if the aliens are not as advanced as we are, that kind of sudden contact could be disastrous for their culture. So, drones. Tons of drones, spying on them for science-reasons. Not really unexplainable. Your last part I'm not really getting. Are you saying space patrol has forbidden aliens from using power plants?  If they have some tech based on physics we don't understand correctly yet, they just need to have some onboard power source to do what they have been observed doing.
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May 25, 2021 18:23
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jarlywarly posted:Are you denying fundamental maths? I am denying your ability to interpret the instrument's data. A thing even basic reading comprehension could've helped you understand. Please finish high school before continuing to post.
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May 25, 2021 18:23
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Captain Monkey posted:I am denying your ability to interpret the instrument's data. A thing even basic reading comprehension could've helped you understand. Please finish high school before continuing to post. I am also an employed computer programmer who uses basic maths everyday, I have 2 scientific publications where my code was a part of the study. But here's the thing I'm not even interpreting the instruments data, the actual experts tell me what the numbers mean on their website, so I don't have to know the instrument I am directly told the measurements and what they mean by them. Of course I checked them myself against another source. here is the handy chart, they produced: 
jarlywarly fucked around with this message at 18:32 on May 25, 2021 |
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May 25, 2021 18:29
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jarlywarly posted:I am also an employed computer programmer who uses basic maths everyday, I have 2 scientific publications where my code was a part of the study. Strange to me that the analysis you're disagreeing with is from the people whose evidence you're using. It's almost like touching computer keys to write html code or whatever and using 10th grade math may not be as relevant as you feel it should be. You're Dunning-Krugering your way into a conversation that has nothing to do with your specialty or training, and doing so in a smug and self-satisfied way, which is why you're getting called out.
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May 25, 2021 18:36
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Captain Monkey posted:Strange to me that the analysis you're disagreeing with is from the people whose evidence you're using. It's almost like touching computer keys to write html code or whatever and using 10th grade math may not be as relevant as you feel it should be. You're Dunning-Krugering your way into a conversation that has nothing to do with your specialty or training, and doing so in a smug and self-satisfied way, which is why you're getting called out. The evidence is shown on screen, which one do you think the experts are wrong on, the figures they tell us, or their interpretation of those figures? I see you have resorted to insults, I thought "I mean I'm far from the only person who feels that side is being scoffed at and made fun of" was a bad thing to do to people?
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May 25, 2021 18:44
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jarlywarly posted:The evidence is shown on screen, which one do you think the experts are wrong on, the figures they tell us, or their interpretation of those figures? You've been sneering at people this entire time - I'm sorry if cataloguing you as falling into the Dunning-Kruger trap feels like an insult. The experts disagree with you - why?
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May 25, 2021 18:49
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jarlywarly posted:The evidence is shown on screen, which one do you think the experts are wrong on, the figures they tell us, or their interpretation of those figures? He's not actually interested in discussing factual claims and evidence. We really need to purge UFO chat from this thread. This happens so often it makes actual discussion of science and space impossible.
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May 25, 2021 18:54
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Captain Monkey posted:You've been sneering at people this entire time - I'm sorry if cataloguing you as falling into the Dunning-Kruger trap feels like an insult. The experts disagree with you - why? I am sorry if you think I am sneering, I am trying to break things down to one thing at a time rather than trying to consider every facet. The experts disagree because they made a mistake, they didn't do the maths correctly or at all, they made an assumption maybe. Experts make mistakes, they make them in their field less than others, but they do make mistakes. Either these experts are demonstrably, mathematically wrong about this interpretation of the height of the object in this video. Or the figures that they provide and explain in detail are wrong.
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May 25, 2021 18:54
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US government agencies have been caught lying about this poo poo before, what's more likely? Human assholes trying to mislead you for whatever reason or aliens from another solar system crossing the vast gulf between stars via whatever means and arriving here, now? Come the gently caress on. I'd love it if we were being visited by aliens too but I'm not going to turn into a colossal pissbaby whenever somebody points what an unlikely explanation that is for unexplained phenomena. Attitudes like that are why stuff like SETI gets dismissed as bunk.
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May 25, 2021 18:55
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jarlywarly posted:I am sorry if you think I am sneering, I am trying to break things down to one thing at a time rather than trying to consider every facet. But you, a computer programmer with a 10th grade math education has spotted the error? Do you not see why maybe that doesn't scan very well and might make people doubt your interpretation?
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May 25, 2021 18:56
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Illuminti posted:What is the point of the UAP narrative from the government/military perspective? If the US gov, say, is making drones that are a technical leap above others, or even if theyr not theyr just spy drones they dont want other states to be able to identify Then naturally once they start getting spotted it is a good cover for them to do a controlled release of sources going "whoa, what are these things? i dont even think theyr man made let alone military drones! nothing to do with us wow what is that?". They can use testimony from either pilots who have seen them and arent in the know, or pilots who are also spooks intentionally releasing disinformation. its obviously more useful to lie than stay quiet, and UFOs are also a good lie cause the people talking about them look nuts. lying to people is the bulk of state intelligence didn't the US already do this with the B2 or is that apocryphal? e: didn't realise this post was kinda a way back, UFO chat is spicy Communist Thoughts fucked around with this message at 19:00 on May 25, 2021 |
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May 25, 2021 18:56
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Communist Thoughts posted:If the US gov, say, is making drones that are a technical leap above others, or even if theyr not theyr just spy drones they dont want other states to be able to identify This is actually a good point, and has some merit. It's entirely possible, but at some point it becomes kinda like denying the Moon Landing - the sheer enormity of the number of people who'd have to keep to the lie and not reveal anything - all while posting evidence for everyone to see and falsify - starts to look as iffy as 'IT'S ALIENS'.
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May 25, 2021 18:58
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Captain Monkey posted:You've been sneering at people this entire time - I'm sorry if cataloguing you as falling into the Dunning-Kruger trap feels like an insult. The experts disagree with you - why? So the conspiracy nut who has been crying the past couple of pages about people not taking the subject of UFOs seriously and demanding that others analyze these things critically instead of outright dismissing them, is now dismissing someone who analyzed one of these UFO incidents. You haven't provided a single piece of analysis yourself, and instead are appealing to authority and throwing out insults left and right. None of you have provided any kind of explanation for these supposed physics-breaking UFO phenomena You won't provide any sort of counter-analysis to the people who have debunked these videos and claims Lash out when someone posts a skeptical opinion on these videos Doesn't seem like the UFO nuts ITT are here to discuss anything, but rather to try and tone police and demand to be taken seriously.
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May 25, 2021 18:59
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Vorik posted:So the conspiracy nut who has been crying the past couple of pages about people not taking the subject of UFOs seriously and demanding that others analyze these things critically instead of outright dismissing them, is now dismissing someone who analyzed one of these UFO incidents. You haven't provided a single piece of analysis yourself, and instead are appealing to authority and throwing out insults left and right. I'm a skeptic who enjoys the conversation, and finds it annoying when it gets shut down because I enjoy reading through it. As I've stated numerous times. Asking for people to not be assholes is hardly 'tone policing'. Several people have actually participated (DrSunshine for one, jarlywarly is starting to actually engage in a meaningful way now, etc.) due to people pointing out that 'NU-UH' is hardly the defense that people like you think it is. I'm not dismissing, I'm asking questions about why the experts would disagree - calling jarlywarly's analysis into question. You're right, I don't have proof of alien life. If I did I wouldn't be posting it in the fun chat about aliens thread, I'd be collecting my Nobel.
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May 25, 2021 19:03
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Captain Monkey posted:But you, a computer programmer with a 10th grade math education has spotted the error? Do you not see why maybe that doesn't scan very well and might make people doubt your interpretation? No I am not the only one who spotted this error Mick West did and there are many others who have looked at this video and made the same conclusion. I checked my work with some of them. This error exists, there is an equation like if you see written down 2+2= the only answer can be 4 and the only answer to 25000ft - (4.2*6076)*(sin 28 degrees) is 13019.5ft (there are 6076 feet in 1 nautical mile) You don't have accept it face value or doubt it, you can try working it out yourself, there's nothing to doubt here, I've presented my working as was asked. If i'm wrong check my maths and let me know, the maths is fairly basic trigonometry
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May 25, 2021 19:05
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Captain Monkey posted:This is actually a good point, and has some merit. It's entirely possible, but at some point it becomes kinda like denying the Moon Landing - the sheer enormity of the number of people who'd have to keep to the lie and not reveal anything - all while posting evidence for everyone to see and falsify - starts to look as iffy as 'IT'S ALIENS'. It wouldnt really require many people, pretty much just the people in charge of whatever program, the mooks from however many alphabet agencies are involved are all employed to lie to the public to begin with. nothing is meant to be a permanent secret, usually just for 20 or 30 years until everyone involved is gone Sadly, I don't think aliens being real has enough evidence to be even at the credibility level of the so-called ""moon" landings" yet smh
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May 25, 2021 19:06
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Captain Monkey posted:I'm a skeptic who enjoys the conversation, and finds it annoying when it gets shut down because I enjoy reading through it. As I've stated numerous times. Asking for people to not be assholes is hardly 'tone policing'. Several people have actually participated (DrSunshine for one, jarlywarly is starting to actually engage in a meaningful way now, etc.) due to people pointing out that 'NU-UH' is hardly the defense that people like you think it is. I'm not dismissing, I'm asking questions about why the experts would disagree - calling jarlywarly's analysis into question. You're right, I don't have proof of alien life. If I did I wouldn't be posting it in the fun chat about aliens thread, I'd be collecting my Nobel. Skeptic? The only thing you're a skeptic of is science and logic. You lost your mind when someone provided their analysis of a UFO video and have yet to provide any counter claims yourself other than screeching about "experts". You need to go back to the flat earther thread you came out of.
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May 25, 2021 19:06
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jarlywarly posted:No I am not the only one who spotted this error Mick West did and there are many others who have looked at this video and made the same conclusion. I checked my work with some of them. I don't disagree that, if your interpretation of the instrument's readings is correct, then you're correct. I'm just asking you if you can think of any reasons why many layers of experts are disagreeing with two programmers (you and Mick West) who have decided to leap into the debunking game. I do not have the answer, I just find it curious that the people who work with the technology say one thing, while a couple of people who design unrelated computer software disagree. It could be related to what Communist Thoughts said, but that too stretches the bounds of believability.
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May 25, 2021 19:08
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If aliens had the capability to know we exist, I don't see why they would send physical drones into our atmosphere. If they have the capability to cross vast reaches of space, they can get whatever info they need without sending little UFO dealies into the atmosphere. In the absence of actual evidence otherwise, it's so much more likely to be secret spy balloons, sensor weirdness, or people just making mistakes that it's not worth spending time trying to justify how it might be aliens. In my opinion, which I know everybody was looking for.
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May 25, 2021 19:09
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Here’s Mick showing the math that that poster is also asserting: https://youtu.be/PLyEO0jNt6M Unless I’ve read their post wrong I’m not really sure how this shows that it’s aliens. Tldr the object is around 13000ft up and flying at wind speed more or less, and appears to be 6-8 ft based on the video and is “cold” which all matches the description of a weather balloon.
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May 25, 2021 19:13
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I don't think it does. I just don't know why the guy who programmed the Tony Hawk games is considered a powerful voice in the community, and so his word shuts down the conversation. I've even said I agree with the math, if that interpretation is correct. But the people that work with the instruments don't seem to think it is, so I'm left confused.
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May 25, 2021 19:14
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Captain Monkey you really make this thread worth reading when you post . The actually educated responses are quite enlightening its definitely not aliens, its lizard people and it always has been, duh
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May 25, 2021 19:18
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Sjs00 posted:Captain Monkey you really make this thread worth reading when you post . The actually educated responses are quite enlightening I have never claimed to be anything other than a dumb guy asking questions and trying to learn, so you're welcome.
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May 25, 2021 19:20
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Libluini posted:FTL is probably impossible, though I haven't ruled out yet that our theories have some holes here and there. I'm saying that any potential physics bending technology, like a warp shell or a gravity generator or whatever, would need to be consuming vast amounts of energy to be able to affect spacetime that way. There's also just the actual energy release from these presumably solid objects interacting with the atmosphere, which even in a warp bubble would occur. Whenever the claim is that these objects are moving in ways that seem implausible or impossible, part of that is that they aren't generating the effects of that sort of energy expenditure on the matter around them. It's not just the speed, it's also that apparently these UFOs are phazing through the atmosphere. There's no apparent exhaust, there's not apparent energy emissions, nothing. Almost like they were made of photons and it was just a mirage of some sort. And as for the drone thing, we can make high altitude drones right now that can image the surface of the earth with incredibly clarity. There's no reason at all (barring sample gathering maybe?) for beings with teh tehoretical capabilities you are ascribing to them to build machines that would approach as close as these things are apparently approaching, unless they were trying to be caught. If these aliens are so concerned with the prime directive, let's not gently caress up indigenous cultures, why would they use machines demostrably interfering with the culture they are observing, for decades, if options existed which would prevent that (which they do, we can build those right now).
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May 25, 2021 19:21
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Captain Monkey posted:I have never claimed to be anything other than a dumb guy asking questions and trying to learn, so you're welcome. Please post more stupid poo poo dumb guy thanks
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May 25, 2021 19:21
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The US doing disinformation should really not stretch credulity. I guess this isn't really space chat though but it's a historical certaint US intelligence (and it seems to be a bunch of fiefdoms) are doing psyops to yourselves and others it's just a case of what they are. So the US coming out with info about UAPs saying theyr either aliens or Chinese drones makes me think US drones as my first response coz there is a historical pattern there and accusing others of what you're doing is the simplest trick in the book. It could very well be something else though. That's just the most obvious conclusion to me if it's not a simple error. If not then someone else's drones, meteorological phenomenon then a waaaaay down the list is alien visitors hanging about in the atmosphere
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May 25, 2021 19:25
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Captain Monkey posted:I don't disagree that, if your interpretation of the instrument's readings is correct, then you're correct. I'm just asking you if you can think of any reasons why many layers of experts are disagreeing with two programmers (you and Mick West) who have decided to leap into the debunking game. I do not have the answer, I just find it curious that the people who work with the technology say one thing, while a couple of people who design unrelated computer software disagree. It could be related to what Communist Thoughts said, but that too stretches the bounds of believability. Again it's not even my interpretation of the instrument, the instrument's display is interpreted for me by them, and also again I have checked the instrument in other sources and found the figures to be accurate as shown. The math is simple, I use more complicated math as part of my work. It is around the same level of math as the level of english that allows you and I to have this conversation. And you are not doubting my use of every word. I'm just showing there is value is checking what you are being told actually matches the evidence shown, and if not to ask why that might be. There are some interesting consequences for the object being high up rather than down low, which have to do with parallax, one is that it means it's not actually going that fast, there's some more maths based on the amount the horizontal angle changes to the object which shows it's moving relatively slowly and that the apparent speed comes from an optical illusion called the parallax effect where the background moves quickly behind an object filmed from a viewpoint that's also slewing the camera to track the object giving a large apparent speed. I'd post this math here but it's a bit long winded here's a visual example https://public.earthscape.com/videos/16309 So now we have an object that's not low and not that fast.
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May 25, 2021 19:26
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jarlywarly posted:Again it's not even my interpretation of the instrument, the instrument's display is interpreted for me by them, and also again I have checked the instrument in other sources and found the figures to be accurate as shown. Sure, again, I agree with your math - and I agree with Communist Thoughts that the US government lies like a dog - but what I don't get is if it's that simple a mathematical equation, why do their users (who are, themselves, people with advanced degrees and a lot of education) not agree with you? I realize the answer is 'we don't know, maybe they're lying?' - but probing and asking you questions like this has led to an actual discussion and I've learned things from it. Like if you were going to post a lie, wouldn't you not give people the numbers necessary to debunk it with 10th grade math? Or are people simply that dumb and incurious? I'm definitely not saying it's aliens, I just don't get why the people posting the evidence disagree with a rudimentary analysis, and that makes me wonder what's missing.
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May 25, 2021 19:30
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Objurium posted:
This is the part of the speculation that just blew my mind. Of course its obvious but I never actually made the connection that UFOs behave exactly like VN probes. I guess the media sensationalism of anal probes abductions floating cows really clouds the perception of what a VN probe would actually be here to do. These 'UFOs' staying right outside our range, not appearing to be hostile, moving impossibly, presumably unmanned (because the Gs would pancake an organic being right) lines up almost 1:1 on what VN probes would in theory do. That's loving awesome edit: at least the people making the lies have made the behavior of the UFOS consistent for decades eh? they never hosed up the charade once (yet) Sjs00 fucked around with this message at 19:43 on May 25, 2021 |
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May 25, 2021 19:31
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Captain Monkey posted:But you, a computer programmer with a 10th grade math education has spotted the error? Do you not see why maybe that doesn't scan very well and might make people doubt your interpretation? It's literally high school maths, using the numbers from the article. If you disagree with his analysis, say why. Like I'm pretty open-minded and some of the stuff I find hard to credit to radar errors etc (having installed and used radar a LOT myself, as well as being a pilot I don't think you can handwave some of this stuff away so easily) but in this case the maths is super simple. Either they screwed up their numbers or their analysis. The two are not compatible.
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May 25, 2021 19:38
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Captain Monkey posted:Sure, again, I agree with your math - and I agree with Communist Thoughts that the US government lies like a dog - but what I don't get is if it's that simple a mathematical equation, why do their users (who are, themselves, people with advanced degrees and a lot of education) not agree with you? I realize the answer is 'we don't know, maybe they're lying?' - but probing and asking you questions like this has led to an actual discussion and I've learned things from it. Like if you were going to post a lie, wouldn't you not give people the numbers necessary to debunk it with 10th grade math? Or are people simply that dumb and incurious? I'm definitely not saying it's aliens, I just don't get why the people posting the evidence disagree with a rudimentary analysis, and that makes me wonder what's missing. It's worth pointing out that most of this is covered in lots of detail in the various threads over at Metabunk. There are people there that post who also have advanced degrees.
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May 25, 2021 19:52
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jarlywarly posted:It's worth pointing out that most of this is covered in lots of detail in the various threads over at Metabunk. There are people there that post who also have advanced degrees. Ah, I'm unaware of that forum! I'll have to check it out, thanks.
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May 25, 2021 19:54
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Maybe I'm just getting old, but this is my third UFO mania. It's also playing out exactly like all the others I've lived through, and all the ones from history too. It's just hard to take it seriously when it's falling into a historical cycle like that.
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May 25, 2021 20:13
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jarlywarly posted:It's worth pointing out that most of this is covered in lots of detail in the various threads over at Metabunk. There are people there that post who also have advanced degrees. Just posting again after some reading to say that Metabunk is exactly what I've been looking for, so thanks a lot for mentioning it! Bug Squash posted:Maybe I'm just getting old, but this is my third UFO mania. It's also playing out exactly like all the others I've lived through, and all the ones from history too. It's just hard to take it seriously when it's falling into a historical cycle like that. Eh, I get that, but it's fun to talk about. There's a more serious space/spaceflight thread in the SAL section of the AT subforum if you get bored of watching nerds talk about UFOs here.
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May 25, 2021 20:15
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What's it matter if they're aliens or not, if all they're interested in is buzzing about like idiot drones and not coming down to have a conversation?
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May 25, 2021 20:22
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How are u posted:What's it matter if they're aliens or not, if all they're interested in is buzzing about like idiot drones and not coming down to have a conversation? Russia doing a psyop to destabilize American society like the CIA always dreamed of doing to Argentina with a giant holographic Virgin Mary. If they're drones, they should definitely be shot down to find out where they come from. If they're instrumentation errors, it seems like the DoD wants to outsource the problem-solving to find the problem.
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May 25, 2021 21:04
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Gofast has been shown pretty conclusively to be parallax, ie the object is closer than it seems and the apparent speed is due to the jet. Mick then just shrugs and says it's a balloon, which maybe? The video was taken within a day of Gimbal so it's possible it's one of the smaller vehicles from that, but we don't know. There's nothing much else that's been released about it specifically.
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May 25, 2021 22:50
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I think an interesting thing to discuss is if we take the claims at face value about the impossible physics from the UFOs and assume aliens; just what parts of our current understanding of physics would need to be wrong and what are these implications. The thought experiment seems interesting enough to me. I'm sympathetic to the position of wanting to take the videos at face value to make interesting conversation in the Aliens and poo poo thread; true there should be some kind of reasoning and logic or evidence of some kind; this also goes for the people who want to say nuh uh. I remember asking my Light Cone / Parallel Reality thought experiment and it taking like excruciating number of pages just to be on the same page (heh) as to what I was even asking, with some posters willfully misinterpreting it. That was annoying and frustrating and this thread would be better all around if we were open minded and forgiving and actually try to know what people want to talk about and give it a chance.
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May 25, 2021 22:52
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:I don’t follow these claims about Earth being special. Aliens are unlikely to visit the Earth because it’s not special. Our civilization is not detectable even from two or three light years away, and the copernican principle would predict that the Earth is more likely to be average than not, including wrt the civilization here. Why would aliens come here and then just watch military airplanes? Luckily I'm going to be able to watch the one that's happening tonight, too!
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May 25, 2021 23:25
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cowboy
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Not just rare in space, but rare in time too. The moon used to be a lot closer and before too long it'll be too far away to block out the light so perfectly. Kind of neat. You might think it goes against the Copernican principle, but really, with all the things that can possibly be rare and special, we're bound to experience one of them, if not a specific one.
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May 25, 2021 23:32
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