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SubNat posted:I really wish Norway did something similar, it's incredibly frustrating to see the news about them shuffling vaccines between counties, and doing stuff like pushing 25-40 year olds to the back of the queue (because apparently it's critical that 18-24 year olds can party this summer?), all the meanwhile the amount of people with first-doses is plateauing because 80%+ of the vaccines are purely going towards second-doses. Gen X: heavy are the shoulders that carry the world.
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Jun 2, 2021 23:24
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Victoria doesn't have a sufficient supply of vaccine to meet the increased demand and people are being turned away. Requests for additional allocations have been turned down by the same federal government which tried to blame people for not being vaccinated when this outbreak started. Meanwhile, there are reports that Queensland has an over-supply. I keep wondering when we'll reach a tipping point and voters will start calling for political scalps, but I suspect that people are too exhausted to muster any meaningful outrage.
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Jun 2, 2021 23:25
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:we don't know yet and probably won't for a while, but the hope is that you won't have to. Got it thanks. I have seen at least one poster who has had something like 3 different brands of vaccine and they are good health wise (I assume) I too hope its not gonna be a thing.
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Jun 2, 2021 23:25
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Sjs00 posted:How necessary is it for me to go get another vaccine, in regards to protecting against variants Single dose efficacy against severe disease:  Second dose efficacy against severe disease:  Fully vaccinated efficacy against hospitalization:  Actually, now that I re-read your post I think I misinterpreted - you already are fully vaccinated with one type of vaccine? I guess I'll leave that in just in case it is interesting to anyone. As someone with one shot of AZ and with availability for picking and choosing a second shot soon I guess it is as good as anything to help make a decision about moderna or pfizer - I mean, they're both good, but also I like the idea of a booster (if necessary) which moderna is further along with. The more comprehensive study from the UK is still not completed, so there really isn't much data to go on, other than the spanish study which looks good but I can't read spanish and can't find much for specifics: "spanish study (translated) posted:This technique showed an increase in neutralizing antibody titers of more than 7 times after the administration of the dose of Comirnaty., said increase being even higher than that described with other homologous vaccination regimens. I guess the other issue is of variant performance - most of the published efficacy studies are still against wildtype or UK variant. From the same pre-print as above  Last week the sage working group release some preliminary efficacy numbers against B.1.617.2 that makes me thankful (as a person with only one shot of AZ..) that B.1.1.7 is the majority of cases in my healthcare region. SAGE technical breifing posted:The study estimates that both vaccines are 33% effective at preventing symptomatic B.1.617.2 infection after 1 dose (vs 51% against B.1.1.7 ("Kent")) and for Pfizer 88% effective after 2 doses (vs 93% for B.1.1.7) and for 1 AstraZeneca, 60% effective after 2 doses (vs 66% for B.1.1.7) If you're fully vaxx'd with an mRNA vaccine you're as well protected as anyone can be at this point. I think the poster that bragged about having all three was joking, at least I hope they were - perhaps they just liked this: https://twitter.com/tawareniel/status/1381713534434869248 Blitter fucked around with this message at 02:46 on Jun 3, 2021 |
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Jun 3, 2021 00:44
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Field trip from AstraZeneca: I didn't die. Arm is a bit sore. After the first hour I started to sweat a lot, lol. Got home, slept a bit and then spent like 20 minutes struggling to wake up to turn off the A/C. I dunno how to explain it, I spent a couple of hours in a very "meh" mood.
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Jun 3, 2021 02:34
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wilderthanmild posted:This line of thinking has essentially the same problem as when people were claiming that cases were only rising in the fall because tests were going up. You probably didn't notice but there's some weird stuff going on with those Johns Hopkins graphs these last few months. Their data (blue lines) pretty closely matched the graphs over at Our World In Data (red lines) for a long long time but suddenly started diverging pretty significantly :   You can see where JH started reporting a higher number of tests while simultaneously reporting lower test positivity rates in comparison to OWiD, which is a bit suss It turns out that Johns Hopkins were using The COVID Tracking Project as their source of data until that site closed down in early March and they switched over to using their own data from Johns Hopkins Centers for Civic Impact https://github.com/govex/COVID-19/tree/master/data_tables/testing_data It looks like they're trying to base their positivity rate on the number of people tested as opposed to the number of tests given but are struggling to account for repeat tests, which naturally drives the number of tests up and pushes the positivity rate down: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/differences-in-positivity-rates They're also struggling with the inconsistent reporting between states and any lag that might result from that - note that Our World In Data often delays their tests/positivity updates by several days or even a full week but JH updates every single day. tl;dr: you can't compare the current Johns Hopkins tests/positivity graph with historical data from before March 2021 and you can't assume their most recent data is accurate
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Jun 3, 2021 03:03
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I live in Boston, and one thing that has somewhat put my mind at ease with the worry about falling test rates not accurately representing the actual cases going around is that our area also tests the wastewater for Covid activity. Those stats have been steadily falling: https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm  I don't know if any other areas are doing this. People can stop getting tested, but they can't stop making GBS threads, so there's that.
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Jun 3, 2021 03:17
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:snipped for brevity Snowglobe of Doom posted:Old post quoted here for easy click. Our world in data also clearly have data problems in their reporting albeit a small and easy to recognize one. For example compare the last time you posted the same OWiD graph.(Quoted so you can click and don't have to dig for it) In that post, there is a clear spike starting in the last week or so of data in the graph. In the more recent one, that old spike is completely gone, replaced by a new one that seems to only start about a week before the data. Since that first post I've checked that graph several times and when it updates it almost always seems to show a new spike in the last few days, with the old one gone. It seems to me that despite their apparent efforts to reduce it, they have an issue with preliminary data throwing off their graph. They'd probably be better off cutting off an extra week. Other than that their data seems fine. Maybe OWiD is overall more accurate than Johns Hopkins in their data, other than their weird ever present ~5 day spike. However, the important part was trends, not 2% vs 3% and other than that seemingly imaginary spike, they both seem to agree in the overall trend even if they have had a separation since the COVID Tracking Project shut down. wilderthanmild fucked around with this message at 03:56 on Jun 3, 2021 |
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Jun 3, 2021 03:38
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CapMoron posted:I live in Boston, and one thing that has somewhat put my mind at ease with the worry about falling test rates not accurately representing the actual cases going around is that our area also tests the wastewater for Covid activity. Those stats have been steadily falling: Unless poo poo stopping is a new covid syndrome 
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Jun 3, 2021 03:52
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Charliegrs posted:Unless poo poo stopping is a new covid syndrome 
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Jun 3, 2021 03:58
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wilderthanmild posted:Our world in data also clearly have data problems in their reporting albeit a small and easy to recognize one. For example compare the last time you posted the same OWiD graph.(Quoted so you can click and don't have to dig for it) In that post, there is a clear spike starting in the last week or so of data in the graph. In the more recent one, that old spike is completely gone, replaced by a new one that seems to only start about a week before the data. Since that first post I've checked that graph several times and when it updates it almost always seems to show a new spike in the last few days, with the old one gone. It seems to me that despite their apparent efforts to reduce it, they have an issue with preliminary data throwing off their graph. They'd probably be better off cutting off an extra week. Other than that their data seems fine. Huh, that's some weeeeird poo poo. Here's the two overlaid for comparison:  WFT are you doing OWiD stop sucking so bad  E: I guess given the lovely data & lags from the state dashboards we shouldn't really trust any data from the previous 7 days on any of the graphs, none of them could possibly be accurate Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Jun 3, 2021 |
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Jun 3, 2021 04:05
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Vorik posted:https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1400063091245731843?s=20 If our models must be wrong, it’s good that reality is better than the models predict, but I’m really not happy about the models being wrong.
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Jun 3, 2021 06:51
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People need to look at what’s going on in the U.K. because it may explain what’s going on elsewhere. We got cases going through the roof, hitting the 4000s yesterday when it was in the 2000s a week ago. BUT if you look at the map it shows a really chuffing strange picture. Rates across the U.K. are not raising, One main area has been hit been with the Indian variant, and it does not look like it’s spreading because it’s looked like this for weeks now. That’s why people are still shouting about June 21st being opening up day and having this area put in a harder lockdown. They are wrong, but you can see how the logic has lead them there. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/    
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Jun 3, 2021 07:23
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learnincurve posted:People need to look at what’s going on in the U.K. because it may explain what’s going on elsewhere. We got cases going through the roof, hitting the 4000s yesterday when it was in the 2000s a week ago. BUT if you look at the map it shows a really chuffing strange picture. Rates across the U.K. are not raising, One main area has been hit been with the Indian variant, and it does not look like it’s spreading because it’s looked like this for weeks now. I don't get what's going on in the UK. Didn't they report zero deaths just the other day? How can you cases rising like that but not an increase in deaths?
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Jun 3, 2021 07:40
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Vaccinations basically. Vaccinations have mostly caught up in those areas after a huge drive, the elephant in the room is that we have had windrush and a batshit evil Home Secretary who turns up on immigration raids “because it’s something I enjoy doing”, so no poo poo a elderly British Indian population are nervous about things like turning up to vote and getting vaccinated in case they get hauled off in a van.
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Jun 3, 2021 08:08
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Charliegrs posted:I don't get what's going on in the UK. Didn't they report zero deaths just the other day? How can you cases rising like that but not an increase in deaths? When I spoke to my parents in Lancashire over the weekend they said the bulk of the cases were in the 10-19 age group. So likely spreading in schools and of course it isn’t going to kill that age group but it’s worrying for them as Covid can cause long term illness and issues.
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Jun 3, 2021 08:09
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Charliegrs posted:I don't get what's going on in the UK. Didn't they report zero deaths just the other day? How can you cases rising like that but not an increase in deaths? It takes 3 weeks+ to die of covid if you have medical care. And if UK death tracking is like the US’s then it takes another few weeks to certify those deaths as being from COVID.
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Jun 3, 2021 11:13
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Purgatory Glory posted:Australian media doesn't gently caress around... Canada's approach is to talk about how we are just around the corner from getting where we need to be. I think our approach is working somewhat, but the Australian approach seems much more satisfying. Ah, loving around is exactly what the NT Times does: https://www.ntnews.com.au/news/nort...af4d-1622717519
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Jun 3, 2021 11:53
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Vorik posted:https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1400063091245731843?s=20 It is possible though that it would have fallen even steeper with the mask mandate in place. We''ll never know.
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Jun 3, 2021 13:00
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CarlosTheDwarf posted:It is possible though that it would have fallen even steeper with the mask mandate in place. We''ll never know. So it was declining at a steady rate with the mask mandate, and continued at that exact same rate once the mandate was lifted. Are you saying that the pace of the decline would have increased on May 13th? Because that seems unlikely. Now that we are several weeks after the updated CDC mask guidance, there are a few things that are pretty clear: - The vaccinations are orders of magnitude more effective than masks at preventing both infection and the spread of the disease. - There are a lot fewer unvaccinated people going maskless than some people feared.
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Jun 3, 2021 13:10
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Fallom posted:It takes 3 weeks+ to die of covid if you have medical care. We are 2 months into the Indian variant and cases rising with hospital admissions and deaths holding steady at the lowest point till the pandemic began. Edit: our hospital data is always a week behind and no, our tracking is not like the US, it’s just about the only thing we got right learnincurve fucked around with this message at 13:25 on Jun 3, 2021 |
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Jun 3, 2021 13:23
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learnincurve posted:Edit: our hospital data is always a week behind and no, our tracking is not like the US, it’s just about the only thing we got right Well, once we fixed that spreadsheet...
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Jun 3, 2021 13:49
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Yeah, we're seeing exactly what you'd expect to see in the UK with the relaxation of restrictions combined with an extensive vaccination program: cases are rising from their low point but hospitalisations and deaths remain very low and falling. The presumption is that the vaccine rollout has broken the correlation between case numbers and hospitalisation/ death numbers and, in the UK at least, transformed Covid into an irritating but almost always non-serious illness. The numbers over the next couple of weeks will tell us whether this is correct or not, which is why everyone here's poring over them with microscopes right now.
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Jun 3, 2021 14:33
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Charliegrs posted:I don't get what's going on in the UK. Didn't they report zero deaths just the other day? How can you cases rising like that but not an increase in deaths? People got too excited over 0 deaths, it was on a bank holiday so low numbers were to be expected. Worth remarking on, sure, but not worth making it the headline. 12 deaths reported the following day, which is high for the current situation, showing we can't relax yet.
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Jun 3, 2021 14:40
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Idk, 12 deaths when we were at 2000 in January is some good job have a pay rise NHS to me.
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Jun 3, 2021 15:22
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CarlosTheDwarf posted:It is possible though that it would have fallen even steeper with the mask mandate in place. We''ll never know. Leonhardt makes the case further down in the thread that the mask mandate lifting *for fully vaccinated people* did help encourage vaccination. https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1400064946575228930 So is it worth trading a relatively small number of unvaccinated number of people going maskless in exchange for increasing the willingness to get vaccinated among the hesitant? Obviously the numbers of each side of the tradeoff matter a great deal and it's impossible to know for sure, but it seems to be working out at this point.
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Jun 3, 2021 16:16
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I'd say we're seeing the cumulative effect of the "no mask if you're vaccinated" mandate combined with the new knowledge of how effective the vaccine seems to be. The vaccine is more effective than initially thought, and I think that's what's tapered off the decrease in daily vaccinations. People become more likely to do something if it's been proven to be pretty effective and safe, which vaccines have proved to be now.
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Jun 3, 2021 16:22
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gohuskies posted:Leonhardt makes the case further down in the thread that the mask mandate lifting *for fully vaccinated people* did help encourage vaccination. Basically, the argument is that while it didn't create much of a bump, it stopped the bleeding and leveled off? This also coincides with a lot of states rolling out lotteries and other incentives to try to vaccinate. I think a lot of states also started opening age 12-15 at that point after a long period of 16+. It's hard to say what caused the decline to stop and level off.
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Jun 3, 2021 16:34
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gohuskies posted:Leonhardt makes the case further down in the thread that the mask mandate lifting *for fully vaccinated people* did help encourage vaccination. It depends on where you live. The counties I'm in most frequently are still 30% vaccinated and below and likely will forever be because these people suck. But people never gave a gently caress about masks to begin with here; the CDC has definitely empowered everyone to be maskless to the point that you're talking about maybe 10 people in crowded department stores having them on, tops. Which is worse than it was. If you're in one of these majestic areas that have like, 60+% vaccinated i'd probably be out running around maskless and hitting restaurants and stuff, too.
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Jun 3, 2021 16:37
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wilderthanmild posted:Basically, the argument is that while it didn't create much of a bump, it stopped the bleeding and leveled off? That chart is only in age 16+ so opening vaccinations to age 12-15 wouldn't make a difference, but yes it's difficult or impossible to guess how much vaccination is motivated by the "you can go mask-free" offer, how much is motivated by the other incentives like lotteries, and how much is just people finally deciding to do the right thing. This is all complicated enough that it's tough to know for sure, but the cases broadly declining as discussed up-thread suggests that while the approach taken may not have been the best possible, at least we can be reasonably sure it wasn't an actual failure either.
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Jun 3, 2021 16:48
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I’ve been going to a lot more restaurants lately and they still all have masks required except while eating. My work says they’re reopening later in the summer for desk workers but will be keeping the 6 ft and masks restrictions even if the CDC says we don’t need to. It just reminds me of the argument “lockdowns don’t work” we were hearing in the middle of the pandemic from conservatives when cases didn’t spike the moment restrictions got lifted because people decided to continue staying home regardless. People aren’t robots that snap to whatever the government says, they’re going to keep doing what they were already doing for at least a couple weeks even if the govt no longer says they have to.
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Jun 3, 2021 16:57
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:It depends on where you live. The counties I'm in most frequently are still 30% vaccinated and below and likely will forever be because these people suck. But people never gave a gently caress about masks to begin with here; the CDC has definitely empowered everyone to be maskless to the point that you're talking about maybe 10 people in crowded department stores having them on, tops. Which is worse than it was. If you are vaccinated then you are fine, live your life. Your neighbors take their lives into their own hands and that's on them, now.
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Jun 3, 2021 17:24
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How are u posted:If you are vaccinated then you are fine, live your life. Your neighbors take their lives into their own hands and that's on them, now. My county's at about 35% vaccinated, 40% of adults and the number is slowly trending upward, which is better than what I figured for a podunk redneck county. Right now my library has opened back up with masks required and limited capacity, but it's at the point where we might as well just lift all that because we're never going to have a sudden spike in vaccinations. I imagine we'll top off at maybe 45-50% in a month or so and that'll be that.
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Jun 3, 2021 17:31
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How are u posted:If you are vaccinated then you are fine, live your life. Your neighbors take their lives into their own hands and that's on them, now. You're wrong and this is why breakthrough cases are such an issue. I've been vaccinated for a month and have no intention of living my life any differently than I have been for the past year for a very long while, because every other dicknoser and non-vaxxed liar are doing the same. And I don't want to be part of that what is it, like 0.03% who get breakthrough covid? Whatever it is, I'd rather bank a few more months of being cautious and watching other idiots get covid through their vaccines than be one of those idiots getting it. Mostly because my doctor says it's got a real high chance of killing my medically hosed up rear end.
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Jun 3, 2021 18:13
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:You're wrong and this is why breakthrough cases are such an issue. I've been vaccinated for a month and have no intention of living my life any differently than I have been for the past year for a very long while, because every other dicknoser and non-vaxxed liar are doing the same. And I don't want to be part of that what is it, like 0.03% who get breakthrough covid? Whatever it is, I'd rather bank a few more months of being cautious and watching other idiots get covid through their vaccines than be one of those idiots getting it. Argh I'm more likely to hurt myself or someone else driving on the freeway now
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Jun 3, 2021 18:17
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:
Your doctor says that if you get covid, even fully vaccinated, it has "a real high chance" of killing you?
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Jun 3, 2021 18:19
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Spinz posted:Argh Considering how many times I've been hit by cars as a pedestrian (and been in car accidents), that just makes me want to sprout a permanent face mask. Also, I don't care what your reasoning is. If you want to go risk getting sick and lower the effectiveness of mask-wearing people like me trying to protect ourselves, have fun. I can't stop you. But I sure have every right in the world to listen to my doctor and continue being reasonable and not doing that poo poo. E: How are u posted:Your doctor says that if you get covid, even fully vaccinated, it has "a real high chance" of killing you? I am not what you would call a robust or healthy person and yes.
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Jun 3, 2021 18:20
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Lot of the vaccine companies are running studies on antibodies and some of the vulnerable people I work with are involved. If you are nervous about the vaccine and you can get a antibody test then I cannot recommend it highly enough. The sense of relief I’m seeing from people is a fantastic thing and probably worth 10 therapy sessions.
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Jun 3, 2021 18:22
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:Whatever it is, I'd rather bank a few more months of being cautious and watching other idiots get covid through their vaccines than be one of those idiots getting it. I don't think that you're an idiot for continuing to be cautious. I also don't think I'm an idiot for starting to be more relaxed about mask usage in many situations now that I'm fully vaxxed.
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Jun 3, 2021 18:22
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Fluffy has spent the plague doing thousands of funerals lads.
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Jun 3, 2021 18:23
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