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Cygni posted:That’s not really how this works. The market segment for $1k GPUs is firmly established at this point. If anything, the market will continue to stretch up, not down. That's not really how pricing bubbles interact with market segmentation. If there is a supply squeeze that causes 1/5 the supply of a GPU, and you can sell those GPUs at double the price, it doesn't mean you've established a new market at the new price. A simple supply-demand curve already tells you that you can sell anything at a higher price if you're willing to sell less of it, that's just moving along the curve, not shifting the curve. Companies already know in any given market a large number of their customers will pay a higher price, that's why price discrimination strategies are a thing.
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Jun 3, 2021 19:00
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Dr. Video Games 0031 posted:After the previous crypto spike that caused card shortages (when was that, 2018?), card prices did rebound, but only partially. Nvidia and AMD took the opportunity to instate permanent MSRP increases across the board. And I fully expect the same to happen here. Yeah the 2060 was $150 more RRP than the 1060, this was meant to be the generation where RRP came down again (3060 RRP down $20 but lol) but they're going to keep pushing prices up as long as people will pay them. I also don't see AMD or Intel putting any effort into stopping that, AMD only undercut Nvidia very slightly this gen and Intel will never want to be seen as the cheap option ever.
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Jun 3, 2021 19:12
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njsykora posted:Yeah the 2060 was $150 more RRP than the 1060, this was meant to be the generation where RRP came down again (3060 RRP down $20 but lol) but they're going to keep pushing prices up as long as people will pay them. I also don't see AMD or Intel putting any effort into stopping that, AMD only undercut Nvidia very slightly this gen and Intel will never want to be seen as the cheap option ever. There's a big difference between the price going up $100 for the next gen and the price staying double of what it should be. As more performance and features get added prices go up. It's happening with CPUs and everything else. Prices will go up but I doubt the 4060 will be $1,000.
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Jun 3, 2021 19:28
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Even though I had sticker shock buying my Zotac 3080 for $1000 from them, I'm so loving glad I'm now out of the game for GPU acquisition for another 5-6 years.
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Jun 3, 2021 19:29
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njsykora posted:Yeah the 2060 was $150 more RRP than the 1060, this was meant to be the generation where RRP came down again (3060 RRP down $20 but lol) but they're going to keep pushing prices up as long as people will pay them. I also don't see AMD or Intel putting any effort into stopping that, AMD only undercut Nvidia very slightly this gen and Intel will never want to be seen as the cheap option ever. AMD has no motivation to undercut if they don't have the production capacity to actually capture the demand they'd generate by doing so. Typical you'd try to price a product to maximize profit at a given price times sales at a given price. If you're constrained by capacity you're just going to price things up until the lowered demand intersects with your diminished capacity. In non-jargon: AMD/NVIDIA could always sell cards at these prices and always knew this, but they can make more money by selling more cards at a lower price. The supply crunch means they can't sell more cards at lower prices because they don't have them to sell, so their next best option is to price the cards as high as they can while still selling out. That doesn't mean that once supply returns to normal the prices stay.
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Jun 3, 2021 19:31
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SourKraut posted:I only tried to get early on the notify because I have the 40% off code. Can you give those to other people?
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Jun 3, 2021 19:36
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FlamingLiberal posted:So did anybody get a card from this launch? 
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Jun 3, 2021 19:37
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There'll never be another 80 series launch for $699 ever again. Betting that the new floor for 80 FE cards from here on out will be $899 and the 80Tis will be $1199. There'll never be another 90 FE for under $17-1999. Probably the only good thing to say about the 30 series is that it'll probably have a similar usage life to the 900 series. I can't see Lovelace coming anytime soon.
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Jun 3, 2021 19:37
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Heard of paper launches but this is ridiculous.
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Jun 3, 2021 19:39
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Zil posted:Heard of paper launches but this is ridiculous.
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Jun 3, 2021 19:49
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Zil posted:Heard of paper launches but this is ridiculous. 
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Jun 3, 2021 19:56
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Zil posted:Heard of paper launches but this is ridiculous. Very good.
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Jun 3, 2021 20:06
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Zil posted:Heard of paper launches but this is ridiculous. 
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Jun 3, 2021 20:20
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SpartanIvy posted:There's a big difference between the price going up $100 for the next gen and the price staying double of what it should be. As more performance and features get added prices go up. It's happening with CPUs and everything else. This is not as normal of a thing as you're making it sound. MSRPs were very stable for like 15 years until crypto became popular. edit: I'm just saying that I have my doubts we'll ever see an 80ti card below a thousand bucks again. Dr. Video Games 0031 fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Jun 3, 2021 |
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Jun 3, 2021 20:35
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FlamingLiberal posted:So did anybody get a card from this launch? I received several, for MSRP no less.
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Jun 3, 2021 20:39
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Smythe posted:I received several, for MSRP no less. Hallmark doesn't count
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Jun 3, 2021 20:45
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So if I want to get a 3070ti from Best Buy on launch day (in san diego, CA) what would I be looking to do. Like how early would I need to be camping out etc. Also what's the launch date of that again. June 10th, right?
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Jun 3, 2021 21:15
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Jarmak posted:How long do you guys think the market is going to remain utter insanity? My honest opinion is that it'll remain insane forever. The tools people use to snap up stock have gotten way too sophisticated, and covid has caused permanent changes to people's lifestyle habits (even if the outside world opens up, certain things will have changed for good for most people). We're also seeing scalping to this degree going on with other in-demand items, even those that don't rely on ultra-sophisticated manufacturing processes, like trading cards. I really do think we're just at that point of late capitalism, which has been accelerated in certain ways by the pandemic. Hope I'm wrong tho!
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Jun 3, 2021 21:19
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Spacedad posted:So if I want to get a 3070ti from Best Buy on launch day (in san diego, CA) what would I be looking to do. Like how early would I need to be camping out etc. multiple days of camping if you want to be guaranteed one
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Jun 3, 2021 21:20
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SourKraut posted:Hallmark doesn't count building a huge fort in my living room out of graphics cards, plugging them in to mine *coin and cooking myself alive while reading cyoa books inside the fort and drinking yoohoo like a boss
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Jun 3, 2021 21:36
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The Grumbles posted:My honest opinion is that it'll remain insane forever. The tools people use to snap up stock have gotten way too sophisticated, and covid has caused permanent changes to people's lifestyle habits (even if the outside world opens up, certain things will have changed for good for most people). We're also seeing scalping to this degree going on with other in-demand items, even those that don't rely on ultra-sophisticated manufacturing processes, like trading cards. I really do think we're just at that point of late capitalism, which has been accelerated in certain ways by the pandemic. Hope I'm wrong tho! While I think there have been some permanent changes, I also believe in chip manufacturer's ability to adapt in the long term. They're already building more new factories to increase supply, and they'll keep building more if they think there's more demand to meet. What I'm mostly skeptical of is 1) that card manufacturers won't find some way to take advantage of the increased demand to raise prices on a permanent basis, and 2) that the crypto currency threat will ever go away. At this point I'm of the belief that the only thing that will remove them as a factor is if governments around the world start outright banning them, which I doubt will happen anytime soon. So basically, I believe that supply will eventually meet demand, but at a higher price, and with periodic shortages remaining a regular occurrence as various crypto currencies surge and crash, as they do. Dr. Video Games 0031 fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Jun 3, 2021 |
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Jun 3, 2021 21:45
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Smythe posted:building a huge fort in my living room out of graphics cards, plugging them in to mine *coin and cooking myself alive while reading cyoa books inside the fort and drinking yoohoo like a boss Can I have your stuff when you die?
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Jun 3, 2021 21:50
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Spacedad posted:So if I want to get a 3070ti from Best Buy on launch day (in san diego, CA) what would I be looking to do. Like how early would I need to be camping out etc. Well, there was that report of the last person in line for a 3080ti showing up at 4pm the previous day (at a NY store I think?). So if I were crazy enough to camp out for a graphics card, I'd show up a few hours before then to be sure.
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Jun 3, 2021 22:00
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I'm in discords with a few folks who said they got one even though they got in line at, like, 9am, so it sounds like it was pretty localized as to what people's chances were.
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Jun 3, 2021 22:01
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The Grumbles posted:My honest opinion is that it'll remain insane forever. The tools people use to snap up stock have gotten way too sophisticated, and covid has caused permanent changes to people's lifestyle habits (even if the outside world opens up, certain things will have changed for good for most people). We're also seeing scalping to this degree going on with other in-demand items, even those that don't rely on ultra-sophisticated manufacturing processes, like trading cards. I really do think we're just at that point of late capitalism, which has been accelerated in certain ways by the pandemic. Hope I'm wrong tho! The boom and bust cycle of crypto will also dictate this. Whatever is the next Ethereum in 5 years, will make getting the 5000 series cards sparse even if we are "recovered" from the pandemic.
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Jun 3, 2021 22:03
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Zil posted:Can I have your stuff when you die? yes
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Jun 3, 2021 22:07
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mutata posted:I'm in discords with a few folks who said they got one even though they got in line at, like, 9am, so it sounds like it was pretty localized as to what people's chances were. I imagine any bay area store is going to be a shitshow, though. edit: Oh, san diego, not san jose. Dunno, then. Still probably gonna be busy.
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Jun 3, 2021 22:16
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Dr. Video Games 0031 posted:While I think there have been some permanent changes, I also believe in chip manufacturer's ability to adapt in the long term. They're already building more new factories to increase supply, and they'll keep building more if they think there's more demand to meet. What I'm mostly skeptical of is 1) that card manufacturers won't find some way to take advantage of the increased demand to raise prices on a permanent basis, and 2) that the crypto currency threat will ever go away. At this point I'm of the belief that the only thing that will remove them as a factor is if governments around the world start outright banning them, which I doubt will happen anytime soon. Yeah I wouldn't count out the prices going up a little permanently if crypto has actually pushed the demand curve. Right now we're dealing with a supply shock in addition to crypto, so the market is totally hosed and there's really no way to tell how much of it is a shift and how much of it is just moving along the curve because of the shortage. The $1200 3080 ti is evidence of this, but it could also be them trying to cash in a little on the shortage. The Grumbles posted:My honest opinion is that it'll remain insane forever. The tools people use to snap up stock have gotten way too sophisticated, and covid has caused permanent changes to people's lifestyle habits (even if the outside world opens up, certain things will have changed for good for most people). We're also seeing scalping to this degree going on with other in-demand items, even those that don't rely on ultra-sophisticated manufacturing processes, like trading cards. I really do think we're just at that point of late capitalism, which has been accelerated in certain ways by the pandemic. Hope I'm wrong tho! That's not really how any of this works, speculating/scalping is occurring because the manufacturers are leaving money on the table maintaining the normal price despite the supply shock. This is the case regardless of how sophisticated the manufacturing process is. Scalping does not make prices go up, people being willing to pay those prices makes prices go up. Better scalping tools are not going to increase prices, they're just going to make the process more efficient. If the scalping prices were permanent then NVIDIA et al would just be selling them at those prices. They're not doing that because the portion of the market willing to bear these prices is comparatively tiny and they know they can make more money selling a poo poo ton more cards at/near the prices we are nominally used to, and don't want to gently caress that up by making some short term profit by gouging. Jarmak fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Jun 3, 2021 |
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Jun 3, 2021 22:17
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Smythe posted:yes How are we gonna play on 4k projector if you don’t get a card biatch
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Jun 3, 2021 22:37
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Alan Smithee posted:How are we gonna play on 4k projector if you don’t get a card biatch i got a 2060 eyesterday so rthat will have to do
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Jun 3, 2021 22:45
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Jarmak posted:The $1200 3080 ti is evidence of this, but it could also be them trying to cash in a little on the shortage. I think it’s a combo of knowing the gouging is going to happen so they might as well get some of the cash, and then they can reduce prices at some future date to a level that’s lower than 1200 but still makes people feel like they’re getting a deal - the old store “sale” price trick.
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Jun 3, 2021 23:07
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setting aside the crypto and WFH demand drivers, i don't think nvidia is going to launch the next gen of cards at Ampere RRP prices. the narrative a year ago was that Turing had been overpriced and Ampere (launch) prices were a return to "sanity" but I suspect all that's overboard now
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Jun 3, 2021 23:20
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Extremely zip code dependent and for Costco members only https://www.costco.com/cyberpowerpc....100775422.html
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Jun 3, 2021 23:30
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shrike82 posted:setting aside the crypto and WFH demand drivers, i don't think nvidia is going to launch the next gen of cards at Ampere RRP prices.
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Jun 3, 2021 23:31
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I was hoping Nvidia took the time to make a 3080 that was easier to produce. "available only in select best buys at lunch day" lol? After months of delays that's all the inventory you have? gently caress
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Jun 3, 2021 23:36
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maybe intel graphics cards will be good  save us raja
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Jun 3, 2021 23:40
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I for one appreciate Nvidia encouraging games to use raytracing and other things that require DLSS to be remotely playable, as someone who owns a Pascal card.
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Jun 3, 2021 23:42
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repiv posted:maybe intel graphics cards will be good Buy Xe Graphics Cards, Collect ShroudPointz!
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Jun 3, 2021 23:50
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Lurikeenrock posted:the amount of ex mining cards that will be hitting the market will be so high that you should really wait wait buy when it happens I think Linus really oversold this point tbvh. Before mining you could buy a RX 480 8GB for about $175 on the regular, $150 for a good deal on a lightly used card. RX 480 4GB was about $125-150 by the same metric. A GTX 1080 was about $400-450, a 1080 Ti was about $650. After the crash, those numbers roughly became $100-125, $100, $325, and $450 respectively. Basically it knocked off around 30% of what prices were before mining took off... in return for a used card with potentially no warranty, run in unknown circumstances, with most of the generation wasted and a new generation of cards about to be released (when there are typically discounts on used cards anyway). I think the mining "discounts" were really not worth it at all when you consider how long the market was hosed up, the compromises you make on the cards in terms of use/warranty, and the amount of the useful lifespan of the card that was lost. Yes, Pascal was an absolute champ of an architecture, but basically within months after the mining crash everything slid down a tier anyway. I realize everyone's got priorities but is really it worth waiting 2 years on a piece of hardware to save a couple hundred bucks? (just like Ryzen 1000 was lol compared to having bought a 5820K 18 months earlier and before DDR4 prices spiked, or how waiting for Zen2/Zen3 was lol compared to just buying an 8700K or 9900K.) I would far far rather have a $1000 3080 right now than a $700 3080 in another year (which, again, will be coming into the countdown for 40-series launch). I think that's kinda how it's gonna be - that's 30% under where prices were before mining hit. Obviously it will depend on just how long the mining shortage goes on - the longer it goes on the more GPUs they'll suck up, but it sucks worse for everyone in the meantime. But I don't think the fantasy of "3080s too cheap to meter" that linus sold everyone is realistic. that's why I think the mining limiter is a good thing. I'd much rather have acceptable prices today than a good but not amazing price in 18 months. And mining in your spare time is only possible if miners can mine too, so the ability to "mine in your spare time" is inseparable from the massive price increases we've seen. It's better to have a $1000 GPU now than to pay $2600 and be able to mine in your spare time. also tangentially related but the mining boom and crash also hosed up what used to be the norm of GPUs getting cheaper over time. Aftermarket 1080s started at $750 and by the time 1080 Ti launched they were well under $500 - the MSRP adjustment was just a recognition of the reality at that point. They bottomed out at $400 before the crash, historical low was something like $390 (for a Gigabyte windforce card iirc). RX 480 8GB went from $240 to $175 over the same time period. That is not something that happens anymore - the way reviewers absolutely roasted Turing by comparing it to used mining cards pretty much galvanized NVIDIA to maintain an iron control over MSRPs going forward (and of course AMD is happy to go along, see: RDNA1 pricing during the Turing generation). No more price reductions over the course of the generation, no more clearance sales at the end, cards will now be compared MSRP vs MSRP because you will be paying MSRP for them for the lifespan of the product. if mining crashes and the used market suddenly way undercuts the 3080 Ti / etc then sure you'll see them adjust MSRP to where it needs to be, but you're not going to see new cards going for 60% of official MSRP the way you used to. Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Jun 4, 2021 |
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Jun 3, 2021 23:52
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How do I sign up for the evga elite thing? I can probably still this 3070 for now than I paid. And if not I can always return it to evga.
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Jun 4, 2021 00:01
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