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Blitter
Mar 16, 2011

Intellectual
AI Enthusiast

Lolie posted:

The idea that I could incubate novel mutations is horrifying.

I remember reading that paper It's horrifying, and tragic, and the clinical progression of mutation after mutation is just creepy AF.

Anyone hosting the virus will be likely seeing some amount of mutations, and doing this with huge numbers of people with varying selection pressure and variant-variant exposures is the more serious public health issue.

quote:

The infecting strain was assigned to lineage 20B bearing the spike(D614G) variant. Environmental sampling showed evidence of virus on surfaces such as the telephone and call bell. Sequencing of these surface viruses showed clustering with those derived from the respiratory tract. All samples were consistent with having arisen from a single underlying viral population.

We were able to follow the dynamics of virus populations during the entire period. After treatment with remdesivir on day 41, the low frequency variant analysis showed mutation in orf7a reaching 79% on day 45.

Sequences revealed dynamic population changes after day 65.

We found that an additional substitution had emerged from undetectable at day 54 to almost 100% frequency on day 66. Notably, spike(N501Y) — which can increase the affinity for the ACE2 receptor6 and which is present in the UK B1.1.7 lineage7 — was observed on day 55 at a frequency of 33%, but was eliminated.

In contrast to the early period of infection, between days 66 and 82, after the first two administrations of convalescent sera, a shift in the virus population was observed, with a variant in the (NTD) of the spike becoming the dominant population at day 82. This was identified in a nose and throat swab sample with high viral load.

On days 86 and 89, viruses obtained from upper respiratory tract samples were characterized by the spike double mutant, with the mutation–deletion pair observed on day 82 having decreased to frequencies of 10% or less. Both of these were also previously observed at a frequency of more than 98% in the sample on day 66, suggesting that this new lineage emerged out of a population that existed previously.

Sequencing of a nose and throat swab sample on day 93 identified viruses characterized by spike mutation at the edge of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and spike mutation in the NTD at close to 100% abundance.

Viruses with the spike mutation were detected in two independent samples from different sampling sites, arguing against the possibility of contamination. The divergence of these samples from the remainder of the population suggests the possibility that they represent a compartmentalized subpopulation.

Patterns in the variant frequencies suggest competition between virus populations carrying different mutations; viruses with the mutation–deletion pair rose to high frequency during convalescent plasma therapy, but were then outcompeted by another population in the absence of therapy.

With the lapse in therapy, the original strain — which had acquired the spike mutation regained dominance, followed by the emergence of a separate population with the double spike variant. In a final attempt to reduce the viral load, a third course of remdesivir (day 93) and a third dose of convalescent plasma (day 95) were administered.

We observed the re-emergence of the spike and deletion viral population. The inferred linkage was maintained as evidenced by the highly similar frequencies of the two variants, suggesting that the third unit of convalescent plasma led to the re-emergence of this population under renewed positive selection.

Viral load values remained low throughout this period with hyperinflammation, which eventually led to multi-organ failure and death on day 102.

Do not want.

I am glad you are in a safe place Lolie and I hope you get big titers from your vaxx and remain well.

Blitter fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Jun 22, 2021

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Spazzle
Jul 5, 2003

Deep Glove Bruno posted:

Dunno if that's a skeptical LOL or not but Cuba does one thing very well: literacy and public health. Two things. Literacy, public health and cucurucho de coco. Three thi...Well there's probably more. But Cuba's vaccine efforts are worth a read about at any rate. When you are embargoed by the world's most powerful state 80 miles from your border, you have to learn to do this kind of thing yourself I guess.

They have five different vaccines in development, all using a novel pipeline technique they pioneered two or three years ago with their lung cancer vaccine - remember that? The one that has a bunch of dying Americans flying via Mexico to obtain in Cuba? Two of the five are intranasal, needle-free vaccines. Abdala is one of two that are wrapping up Phase III trials.

They're also developing a "Pan-corona" vaccine aimed particularly at novel variants by targeting parts of the virus that are least prone to variation.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2021/03/31/cubas-five-covid-19-vaccines-the-full-story-on-soberana-01-02-plus-abdala-and-mambisa/ This is just a blog but summarizes and has some links for more.

Basically, Cuba bet big on biotech in the early 80s and make the most of a very limited economic situation in order to shame the gently caress out of the rest of us medically.
I'm lolling over 4 digits of precision.

Deep Glove Bruno
Sep 4, 2015

yung swamp thang

Spazzle posted:

I'm lolling over 4 digits of precision.

a very specific LOL

Spazzle
Jul 5, 2003

Deep Glove Bruno posted:

a very specific LOL

The curse of fighting statistics wars

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum

Blitter posted:

I am glad you are in a safe place Lolie and I hope you get big titers from your vaxx and remain well.

Thank you.

Despite our government trying to sell the vaccination rollout as the pathway back to normal, I won't be changing my own behaviour in the foreseeable future. That should help protect both myself and others.

And I am definitely fortunate to live in a place where community transmission is very low, although I remain mindful of how quickly that can change.

MarcusSA
Sep 23, 2007

Laughing at the tiny rear end (and relatively poor) island doing better than China lol

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum
Our current cluster continues to grow larger and the list of exposure sites grows longer. Most worrying is that CCTV has confirmed that merely walking past an infectious person in a shopping centre is enough for transmission to occur.

Our mask mandate has been extended for another week and now includes shopping centres and hospitality venues. It's recommended that people wear masks in carparks.

I hope we manage to avoid a lockdown, but I'm not confident that we will.

Pyrtanis
Jun 30, 2007

The ghosts of our glories are gray-bearded guides
Fun Shoe
I just got my text saying I can schedule an appointment for the mRNA 2nd dose! :woop:

Castaign
Apr 4, 2011

And now I knew that while my body sat safe in the cheerful little church, he had been hunting my soul in the Court of the Dragon.

Pyrtanis posted:

I just got my text saying I can schedule an appointment for the mRNA 2nd dose! :woop:

Thrilled on your behalf. Get that jab juice friend!

Another Bill
Sep 27, 2018

Born on the bayou
died in a cave
bbq and posting
is all I crave

Pyrtanis posted:

I just got my text saying I can schedule an appointment for the mRNA 2nd dose! :woop:

I've got my appointment tomorrow for an mRNA after getting Astra Zeneca in April and I couldn't be more thrilled.

Meanwhile in Canada, we have apparently have a good number of people walking out on Moderna shots because they want to wait for Pfizer.

Just in case anyone is wondering who the most spoiled brats on the planet are.

WhiteHowler
Apr 3, 2001

I'M HUGE!
Weird. I get why some people might want to skip J&J or AZ to wait for an mRNA vaccine, but the Moderna is basically just as good as Pfizer, isn't it?

The small variation in efficacy numbers seems to come from different testing criteria during the trials.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
People choosing Pfizer over Moderna is a consequence of the authorities pretending that all vaccines are the same.

Not everyone is credulous enough to believe that there’s no difference. They know that Pfizer’s vaccine posted excellent numbers in trials and ever since and that that’s the one that the fat cats in Washington got. They’re not knowledgeable enough to know that Moderna’s vaccine is so similar in structure and performance that it makes a fine substitute, but they’re more knowledgeable than most.

Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 10, 2009

WhiteHowler posted:

Weird. I get why some people might want to skip J&J or AZ to wait for an mRNA vaccine, but the Moderna is basically just as good as Pfizer, isn't it?

The small variation in efficacy numbers seems to come from different testing criteria during the trials.

yeah you're talking about really splitting hairs between the two of them. whether they hold up long-term to delta, who knows, but a lot of unvaccinated idiots are running around here maskless and moderna's made me not dead yet!

LanceHunter
Nov 12, 2016

Beautiful People Club


Platystemon posted:

People choosing Pfizer over Moderna is a consequence of the authorities pretending that all vaccines are the same.

Not everyone is credulous enough to believe that there’s no difference. They know that Pfizer’s vaccine posted excellent numbers in trials and ever since and that that’s the one that the fat cats in Washington got. They’re not knowledgeable enough to know that Moderna’s vaccine is so similar in structure and performance that it makes a fine substitute, but they’re more knowledgeable than most.

Moderna, the "Is Pepsi okay?" of covid vaccines.

WhiteHowler
Apr 3, 2001

I'M HUGE!

Fluffy Bunnies posted:

yeah you're talking about really splitting hairs between the two of them. whether they hold up long-term to delta, who knows, but a lot of unvaccinated idiots are running around here maskless and moderna's made me not dead yet!

I ended up with Pfizer, just because that's what my local CVS was using in early April. I would have happily taken Moderna.

My state (the reddest of the red) is at an incredible 31% vaccinated. :sigh:

A Fancy Hat
Nov 18, 2016

Always remember that the former President was dumber than the dumbest person you've ever met by a wide margin

My wife and I are both about a 6 weeks out from our 2nd dose of Moderna. In that time we've:

Gone to the movies
Gone to the zoo
Seen my parents multiple times
Started realistically planning a vacation for 2022
Visited a friend for the first time who had a baby that's now almost 2 years old

I'll gladly stick with my Moderna, I would have taken Pfizer at the time, I am just so happy to have that protection.

Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 10, 2009

WhiteHowler posted:

I ended up with Pfizer, just because that's what my local CVS was using in early April. I would have happily taken Moderna.

My state (the reddest of the red) is at an incredible 31% vaccinated. :sigh:

drat, you're worse than GA's 34.8%. I'm sorry. Alabama?

hot cocoa on the couch
Dec 8, 2009

Platystemon posted:

People choosing Pfizer over Moderna is a consequence of the authorities pretending that all vaccines are the same.

Not everyone is credulous enough to believe that there’s no difference. They know that Pfizer’s vaccine posted excellent numbers in trials and ever since and that that’s the one that the fat cats in Washington got. They’re not knowledgeable enough to know that Moderna’s vaccine is so similar in structure and performance that it makes a fine substitute, but they’re more knowledgeable than most.

Here in Ontario/Canada, I think the extremely high vaccination rate is affording people the comfort of feeling picky. They want the best one and feel like they can wait to get it because the vaccination pace is so high, it won't take long until they can get what they want. I'll take whatever they want to give me when they pull my number for my second shot (should be soon I guess), but I can't blame people for being choosey. I've gone from being the informed and knowledgeable one in my social circle to everyone I know having more up to date information on covid infection rates, variants, hospitalization numbers, vaccination efficacy rates and all that poo poo than me. Before I was begging people to do some independent research and source multiple viewpoints and opinions on all sorts of things in their lives rather than letting one "expert" (or worse, the loudest family member they have) inform their total outlook on something. Now they are, so I can't complain that they're making the "wrong" decision.

This reminds me of when a firebrand political coworker of mine at an old job tried to whip up a bunch of non-political Liberal-voting people into action by getting them to really examine their beliefs and the party policies and accidentally flipped most of them to voting PC instead of NDP like he'd wished at the last provincial election. Like, yeah, they're informed now, and they've made their decision based on the information in front of them. He (and I) think that decision is going to actively hurt them and society (they helped vote in Doug Ford lmao), but our goal was to inform them rather than let propaganda or complacency decide their vote, and whoops, they're actually racist, nationalist idiots who like conservatism.

WhiteHowler
Apr 3, 2001

I'M HUGE!

Fluffy Bunnies posted:

drat, you're worse than GA's 34.8%. I'm sorry. Alabama?

Yeah. Lucky me!

It's a combination of deeply ingrained (inbred?) stupidity, and intense politicization (if Biden says you should get vaccinated, then we definitely won't do it!).

Working against your own best interest is even more popular here than Jesus, guns, and Crimson Tide football. I probably have those three backwards in order of actual priorities.

WhiteHowler fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Jun 22, 2021

Another Bill
Sep 27, 2018

Born on the bayou
died in a cave
bbq and posting
is all I crave



This map of Toronto is blowing my mind right now. It's data from the last 2 weeks. About 3 million people live in the area depicted and we're only at ~20% fully vaccinated, but I think ~80% with one dose.

nunsexmonkrock
Apr 13, 2008

hot cocoa on the couch posted:

Here in Ontario/Canada, ... I'll take whatever they want to give me when they pull my number for my second shot (should be soon I guess), but I can't blame people for being choosey.

Wait Canada is mixing and matching vaccinations? I'd wait too just so I could get the same thing as my first shot

Scarodactyl
Oct 22, 2015


nunsexmonkrock posted:

Wait Canada is mixing and matching vaccinations? I'd wait too just so I could get the same thing as my first shot
If I had a first dose of AZ I'd want an mrna boost. It seems to give better results that way.

Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 10, 2009

WhiteHowler posted:

Yeah. Lucky me!

It's a combination of deeply ingrained (inbred?) stupidity, and intense politicization (if Biden says you should get vaccinated, than we definitely won't do it!).

Working against your own best interest is even more popular here than Jesus, guns, and Crimson Tide football. I probably have those three backwards in order of actual priorities.

I grew up primarily in AL. You definitely have some of those backwards in actual priorities.


nunsexmonkrock posted:

Wait Canada is mixing and matching vaccinations? I'd wait too just so I could get the same thing as my first shot

so far it seems like mix and match works just as good as this.

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh
PHE for the actual stats, expect more to trickle out over the next few weeks.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-effective-against-variants-found-india-2021-06-22/

Pfizer and AZ found to be more than 90% effective at preventing hospitalisations

DrPlump
Oct 5, 2004

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
So what's the REAL breakdown on this new covid strain. Do I actually need to get vaccinated this time or is it like the old one unless you super old/young?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Space Camp fuckup
Aug 2, 2003

Get your vaccine you moron

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh
The Delta/Indian variant is nasty because it will kick you in the balls no matter your age - Uk got something like 92% of over 65s fully vaccinated and it’s all unvaccinated younger people in the hospital now.

KakerMix
Apr 8, 2004

8.2 M.P.G.
:byetankie:

Space Camp fuckup posted:

Get your vaccine you moron

:hmmyes:

Imagine not getting vaccinated lmao

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

hot cocoa on the couch posted:

Here in Ontario/Canada, I think the extremely high vaccination rate is affording people the comfort of feeling picky. They want the best one and feel like they can wait to get it because the vaccination pace is so high, it won't take long until they can get what they want. I'll take whatever they want to give me when they pull my number for my second shot (should be soon I guess), but I can't blame people for being choosey. I've gone from being the informed and knowledgeable one in my social circle to everyone I know having more up to date information on covid infection rates, variants, hospitalization numbers, vaccination efficacy rates and all that poo poo than me. Before I was begging people to do some independent research and source multiple viewpoints and opinions on all sorts of things in their lives rather than letting one "expert" (or worse, the loudest family member they have) inform their total outlook on something. Now they are, so I can't complain that they're making the "wrong" decision.

This reminds me of when a firebrand political coworker of mine at an old job tried to whip up a bunch of non-political Liberal-voting people into action by getting them to really examine their beliefs and the party policies and accidentally flipped most of them to voting PC instead of NDP like he'd wished at the last provincial election. Like, yeah, they're informed now, and they've made their decision based on the information in front of them. He (and I) think that decision is going to actively hurt them and society (they helped vote in Doug Ford lmao), but our goal was to inform them rather than let propaganda or complacency decide their vote, and whoops, they're actually racist, nationalist idiots who like conservatism.

You'd think it's just those that can be picky are the ones doing it. Read on CBC news site that Brazil, which has record cases and is second to the US in deaths while only having 2/3rds their population, is turning their noses up at Astrazeneca. In Brazil they have 96% of their vaccines from a Chinese vaccine and Astrazeneca, while 4% is pfizer. Clinics with pfizer have lineups around the block while clinics with the others are having people pop their head in, ask if they have pfizer, then leave. All while the country is getting hammered. Canada is starting to turn its nose up to non pfizer but we took AZ when that's all we had.

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh
UK if they only have the AZ in stock then you get a choice of AZ or walking out on the sweet old woman who does the jabs after you are sat in the chair with your arm out.

NHS played a master stroke in recruiting the army of retired nurse grandmas to do the jabs IMO.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

DrPlump posted:

So what's the REAL breakdown on this new covid strain. Do I actually need to get vaccinated this time or is it like the old one unless you super old/young?

Lol what. Even if all we still had was the "old one" it didn't just gently caress up the super old people so you'd be insane not to get vaccinated.

The delta strain is way more contagious but so far it appears as though the vaccines provide pretty decent protection against it.

Get vaccinated you moron.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Delta is also about twice as likely to land the unvaccinated in hospital.

NotJustANumber99
Feb 15, 2012

somehow that last av was even worse than your posting
bloody footballers hugging and kissing each other then acting like someone popped their balloon when they're told, actually boys, you're staying in now for ten days. I can't even blame them though when you look at everyone else involved over the age of 20 acting like nothing matters. loving idiots.

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo
Delta and the other variants are leading to a nice rise in Chudland Utah now. Seeing as Chuds are who keep perculating COVID around and spreading it to the only small Blue areas in Utah hopefully they stay the hell out of Salt Lake County!!!!

NotJustANumber99
Feb 15, 2012

somehow that last av was even worse than your posting
i have friends that live in saltlake city. do you know them?

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum
Delta is now coming into Australia from all parts of the world and there's no doubt it's going to be the dominant strain until something worse comes along.

Queensland chief health officer said this morning that 10-15 seconds of contact is sufficient to transmit Delta, compared to 15 minutes for the strains which were around a year ago.

Sydney should be in lockdown, but we're not.

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo

NotJustANumber99 posted:

i have friends that live in saltlake city. do you know them?

more than likely i know someone they know

Helith
Nov 5, 2009

Basket of Adorables


Lolie posted:

Delta is now coming into Australia from all parts of the world and there's no doubt it's going to be the dominant strain until something worse comes along.

Queensland chief health officer said this morning that 10-15 seconds of contact is sufficient to transmit Delta, compared to 15 minutes for the strains which were around a year ago.

Sydney should be in lockdown, but we're not.

Yes we should be in lockdown. I wonder if Gladys will want to try a local lockdown of just the eastern suburbs, but I'm not sure how you would even manage that as they are not as easy to isolate as the Northern Beaches were back in Dec.
We'll see how the numbers are today when they get released in just over an hour. We know there's a baseline of 7 cases as they were announced yesterday, so we'll see how many more were reported in that period.

SulfurMonoxideCute
Feb 9, 2008

I was under direct orders not to die
🐵❌💀

We're planning on lifting all our restrictions so the city can party and drink and gently caress for a week right as the Delta variant is taking off. This should be interesting.

The province is a bit over 30% fully vaxxed, 71% have had their first dose. I feel like we're going to end up a case study.

I never like Stampede anyway so I'm not ripping to go and join them even as a fully vaxxed person. If poo poo goes down, I'll at least feel comfort in not contributing to it.

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pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007


nunsexmonkrock posted:

Wait Canada is mixing and matching vaccinations? I'd wait too just so I could get the same thing as my first shot

AZ first shots have a choice of AZ or mRNA for the pit second.

Which mRNA you get is mostly random so it’s a little hard to plan around.. Most of the gov clinics here just say Pfizer or Moderna and you get whatever they are giving out that day. When I got my first shot, the person next to me in line started making a big stink about getting Moderna but luckily for the poor volunteer, there was a last minute change and they were doing Pfizer that day. The lady who was giving me all my disclaimers and waivers said it happened all the time because the shipments keep changing and no one tells the front line people anything.

The smaller pop up clinics will say specifically what they are using since they actually know what supplies they have.

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