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ultrafilter
Aug 23, 2007

It's okay if you have any questions.


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DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

freebooter posted:

Not sure where you're getting this from when the media is full of stories of empty vaccination hubs and GPs booking a handful of appointments in per day.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coron...6237069988f3c3a

More anecdote but after Morrison opened up AZ to everyone my GP went from having many open appointments to booked solid for two weeks. Presumably that will taper off after the vaccine-enthusiasts get the jab.

Cthulu Carl
Apr 16, 2006

Mr.Pibbleton posted:

What if it gets displaced by a virus that causes happiness as one of its symptoms?

It's like a fun version of 28 days later!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itF9asr7bsE&t=97s

Roman
Aug 8, 2002

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

The bottom line is that there's a LOT of vaccinated people coming down with covid in Israel right now

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/covid-infections-in-israel-spike-by-50-percent-1.9973150
They tested positive but are they all full disease? Symptomatic and all that? It's my understanding a PCR detects viral fragments but that doesn't always = infection, and you can still find fragments months later. You can be inoculated against measles but a test can still detect measles on you.

I don't think this is nitpicking, I want to know how many of these breakthroughs get actual sick but that is never mentioned, just test positives.

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum

freebooter posted:

Not sure where you're getting this from when the media is full of stories of empty vaccination hubs and GPs booking a handful of appointments in per day.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coron...6237069988f3c3a

It was in one of the media reports yesterday on the "wargaming". It specifically talked about blitz vaccination towards the end of the year and mentioned using paramedics as an option under consideration. I'll see if I can find the story. They seem to get rewritten hourly at the moment.

On another note, Hazzard is dismissing the vaccination of private school students as a mistake from which the media needs to move on.

Koirhor
Jan 14, 2008

by Fluffdaddy
Ligma 2 gonna slap hard

Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 10, 2009

Mr.Pibbleton posted:

What if it gets displaced by a virus that causes happiness as one of its symptoms?

It's like a fun version of 28 days later!

We Happy Few 2: We're hosed

This delta poo poo is what I was worried about and now it gets to gently caress up a bunch of people and covid sucks, y'all.

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum
AZ dose , day 2. Injection site is a bit tender and stiff and I feel a bit tired, but that's all

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Fluffy Bunnies posted:

This delta poo poo is what I was worried about and now it gets to gently caress up a bunch of people and covid sucks, y'all.

Delta is already old hat, we've already moved on to Delta Plus
https://twitter.com/phylogenomics/status/1412485090597216256

.... but even that's been surpassed and now the Peru/Lambda Variant is the new hotness

https://twitter.com/NewsBFM/status/1411938118182195201

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Roman posted:

I don't think this is nitpicking, I want to know how many of these breakthroughs get actual sick but that is never mentioned, just test positives.

Did u follow the link and read the fukken article or did you just look at the tweet

quote:

Seventy-four patients are hospitalized, 43 percent of whom were fully vaccinated. Five were added on Monday, including three who were vaccinated.

Pyrtanis
Jun 30, 2007

The ghosts of our glories are gray-bearded guides
Fun Shoe
Got Moderna for second dose, partner was not allowed a walk in as they were only doing first doses for that

Light headed after injection for a couple hours, and at 5 hours nasty headache, arm is fine but that's because I have nerve damage at the injection site from a prior injury

Some old was whining they wanted Pfizer instead, nice to see boomer entitlement is universal

Nurse told me she'd heard the side effects from first AZ is worse than second mRNA, guess I'll find out!!

ante
Apr 9, 2005

SUNSHINE AND RAINBOWS

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Delta is already old hat, we've already moved on to Delta Plus
https://twitter.com/phylogenomics/status/1412485090597216256

.... but even that's been surpassed and now the Peru/Lambda Variant is the new hotness

https://twitter.com/NewsBFM/status/1411938118182195201

Really fuckin' tired of pseudo scientific articles the really fuckin' stretch the use of the word "may"



This just in! Scientists say that there "may be an epsilon variant that also makes you rip mega farts"


prove me wrong

Centusin
Aug 5, 2009
The Jakarta governor decided to personally lead the charge on WFH enforcement in Jakarta lol

https://coconuts.co/jakarta/news/anies-baswedan-leads-enforcement-of-work-from-home-policy-by-telling-off-office-workers-in-viral-video/

quote:

“Your company is not being responsible. This isn’t about profit or loss, this is about people’s lives. People like you are so selfish,” Anies reprimanded the woman in the video, who is a human resources staff at Ray White.

The governor also reserved some harsh words for an office manager at Equity Life.

“We are burying people everyday, sir. You take responsibility. We are all stumped. Especially as there’s a pregnant woman here. Going into labor is really difficult for pregnant women during COVID-19. This morning I was told that one pregnant woman died. Why? Because she gave birth while she had COVID-19,” he said.

Things in Indonesia are pretty hosed, my partner and her extended family that live next door have been super careful the entire time, and now they all have covid. They've all been vaxxed so I'm hoping they will be alright, but the way Indonesia counts its death toll is really hiding the number of people that have actually died. There was a day this weekend where there were 392 covid protocol burials in Jakarta but only like 50 reported deaths.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

ante posted:

Really fuckin' tired of pseudo scientific articles the really fuckin' stretch the use of the word "may"



This just in! Scientists say that there "may be an epsilon variant that also makes you rip mega farts"


prove me wrong

It's actually genuinely difficult to get a handle on how bad the Lambda variant could be because Peru has been absolutely turbofucked throughout the entire pandemic and the variant hasn't made much headway in other countries yet

ante
Apr 9, 2005

SUNSHINE AND RAINBOWS

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

It's actually genuinely difficult to get a handle on how bad the Lambda variant could be because Peru has been absolutely turbofucked throughout the entire pandemic and the variant hasn't made much headway in other countries yet



Right. So an equally scientifically correct, but less attention grabbing headline would be "Scientists from the WHO say that the strain has an unusual set of mutations, and they don't know how that changes things"



I'm so loving tired of the media fear mongering because it gets them clicks

gohuskies
Oct 23, 2010

I spend a lot of time making posts to justify why I'm not a self centered shithead that just wants to act like COVID isn't a thing.

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

It's actually genuinely difficult to get a handle on how bad the Lambda variant could be because Peru has been absolutely turbofucked throughout the entire pandemic and the variant hasn't made much headway in other countries yet



How many people in Peru are vaccinated? Obviously nobody in 2020, but affecting the curve in the past few months.

gohuskies fucked around with this message at 06:27 on Jul 7, 2021

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum
Have some NSW exceptionalism.

quote:

NSW may never control its current COVID-19 outbreak, and be forced to live with the virus for good, Health Minister Brad Hazzard says.

The admission came towards the end of a long press conference and signalled, the possibility at least, of a major pandemic policy shift in Australia's most populous state.

NSW is grappling with an outbreak of the ultra-infectious Delta COVID-19 variant, which has been spreading through the community — albeit at low levels — since last month.

While it started in Sydney's eastern suburbs, the main areas of concern are now in the city's south west, in the local government areas of Liverpool, Fairfield and Canterbury-Bankstown.

The state's chief health officer, Kerry Chant, implored people to reduce their movements around the Harbour City.

On the same day the lockdown affecting Greater Sydney and its surrounds was extended for a week, Mr Hazzard was asked if the state would ever gain control of the Delta COVID-19 variant.

It was put to him that, perhaps, the state should just "give up" — something that would put NSW's strategy at odds with management strategies om other states and territories.

"If the individuals that we need don't hear Dr Chant's message and don't respond, then at some point we're going to move to a stage where we're going to have to accept that the virus has a life which will continue in the community," he said.

"Particularly for the community in south-west Sydney; Canterbury, Bankstown, Fairfield and Liverpool, [you need] to understand that your individual actions may well determine the future of this virus in our community."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Very different messaging than when the clusters were focused in the affluent eastern suburbs.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

gohuskies posted:

How many people in Peru are vaccinated? Obviously nobody in 2020, but affecting the curve in the past few months.

Currently 10.1% fully vaxxed + 4.2% first shot. They started early Feb with one million doses of Sinopharm and then about 3 million Pfizer and 300k AstraZeneca in early May.

They decided to vaxx their police, armed forces, medical staff and politcians in Phase 1 of their vaccinations and left the elderly and immunocompromised until Phase 2 which went somewhat poorly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_Peru

gohuskies
Oct 23, 2010

I spend a lot of time making posts to justify why I'm not a self centered shithead that just wants to act like COVID isn't a thing.

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Currently 10.1% fully vaxxed + 4.2% first shot. They started early Feb with one million doses of Sinopharm and then about 3 million Pfizer and 300k AstraZeneca in early May.

They decided to vaxx their police, armed forces, medical staff and politcians in Phase 1 of their vaccinations and left the elderly and immunocompromised until Phase 2 which went somewhat poorly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_Peru

I suppose it'll be several months before we have any clue how Lambda might interact with vaccines then. We don't even know much for sure about Delta yet.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

gohuskies posted:

I suppose it'll be several months before we have any clue how Lambda might interact with vaccines then. We don't even know much for sure about Delta yet.

The US should already have lots and lots of data on Delta but they're still only sequencing something like 1.4% of reported cases and the CDC isn't collecting data on breakthrough infections except for severe cases.

ante
Apr 9, 2005

SUNSHINE AND RAINBOWS

gohuskies posted:

I suppose it'll be several months before we have any clue how Lambda might interact with vaccines then. We don't even know much for sure about Delta yet.

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh
Uk had lots and lots of data about Delta, but the fact that the vaccines are very clearly working against delta does not fit the doomer narrative.


Yeh I GET the issue is the kids being super spreaders, but everyone needs to be very wary that the press are pandering to that thing in the first wave where when you told nasty bastards (their readership) that it was over 60s in hospital so they had to be careful, and they would find one kid with underlying conditions out of the thousands of olds in hospital and start screeching and throwing badly googled stats at you.

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum
It's a measure of how concerned our health department is about Delta that I just got a message from my haematology clinic saying no carers are allowed at appointments and no visitors are allowed at the hospital without an exemption.

Even during our long lockdown last year, one person was still able to accompany people to appointments and visitors were still allowed in the oncology ward in limited numbers.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

ante posted:

I'm so loving tired of the media fear mongering because it gets them clicks

I’m tired of the wishful thinking.

It’s happened for a year and a half, from “this will never leave China” to “you have thirteen cases and very soon it will be zero” to “the virus evolves slowly, reinfections are vanishingly rare, and natural immunity extremely long lasting” and now “well I may have the sniffles, but thank God I’m vaccinated so I can gently caress and suck through this cold with no concern that it’s COVID”.

The worst‐case scenario doesn’t always happen, but maybe, just maybe, people should sometimes act like something other than the best‐case scenario is possible.

You, personally, need not cower in fear of λ, but our so‐called leaders should treat it like a credible threat.

ante
Apr 9, 2005

SUNSHINE AND RAINBOWS

Platystemon posted:

I’m tired of the wishful thinking.

It’s happened for a year and a half, from “this will never leave China” to “you have thirteen cases and very soon it will be zero” to “the virus evolves slowly, reinfections are vanishingly rare, and natural immunity extremely long lasting” and now “well I may have the sniffles, but thank God I’m vaccinated so I can gently caress and suck through this cold with no concern that it’s COVID”.

The worst‐case scenario doesn’t always happen, but maybe, just maybe, people should sometimes act like something other than the best‐case scenario is possible.

You, personally, need not cower in fear of λ, but our so‐called leaders should treat it like a credible threat.

No. This isn't even "scientists have found some indications that lambda is more resistive to vaccines". It's literally just a comment that a mutation of COVID-19, surprise surprise, has a mutation.


That possibility of increased vaccine immunity was figuratively pulled out of someone's rear end. You can doomscroll all you want, but the WHO doesn't even list it as a variant of concern yet.


There are four variants of concern - Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta. Four variants of interest - Eta, Iota, Kappa, and Lambda. Lambda was first sequenced in December, only two months after Delta.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Oh. Well. If WHO says so.

e: Actual WHO document:

quote:

Lambda carries a number of mutations with suspected phenotypic implications, such as a potential increased transmissibility or possible increased resistance to neutralizing antibodies.6 It is characterised by mutations in the spike protein, including G75V, T76I, del247/253, L452Q, F490S, D614G and T859N; however, there is currently limited evidence on the full extent of the impact associated with these genomic changes, and further robust studies into the phenotypic impacts are needed to better understand the impact on countermeasures and to control the spread. Further studies are also required to validate the continued effectiveness of vaccines.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20210615_weekly_epi_update_44.pdf

That’s not saying that everything is rosy.

VOI is how they all start. Delta didn’t get upgraded to a variant of concern till May eleventh. So I suppose if there was a two month delay in sequencing, we could expect an upgrade on Sunday.

But not really because that’s not how this works. Λ is only widespread in South America. We’re going to have to gently caress around before we can find out if it warrants a higher designation.

If it warrants a higher designation. And it might not, but it might, and we shouldn’t dismiss that out‐of‐hand.

Platystemon fucked around with this message at 08:10 on Jul 7, 2021

ante
Apr 9, 2005

SUNSHINE AND RAINBOWS

Platystemon posted:

But not really because that’s not how this works. Λ is only widespread in South America. We’re going to have to gently caress around before we can find out if it warrants a higher designation.

If it warrants a higher designation. And it might not, but it might, and we shouldn’t dismiss that out‐of‐hand.

I agree


My complaint is that the media, however, is just mashing that "panic" button real hard.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Would you describe the WHO epi report’s use of“suspected”, “potential”, and/or “possible” as “pseudoscientific”?

From where I’m sitting, it’s not that different from the tweet’s “may”.

Yeah, it could be misread. So what? You and I know how to read critically and the general public knows that coronavirus is over, drop the balloons, bring in the dancing lobsters.

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Lolie posted:

Have some NSW exceptionalism.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Very different messaging than when the clusters were focused in the affluent eastern suburbs.

lmao two weeks of lockdown and they're ready to concede defeat. Wonder how they'll blame this on Andrews?

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Platystemon posted:

Λ is only widespread in South America.

There's been more confirmed cases in the US than in Peru. :ssh:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Lambda_variant#Statistics


E: just to clarify, this is because genomic sequencing in both countries is laughably inadequate and we have no real idea what the actual number of cases might possibly be

Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 08:31 on Jul 7, 2021

ante
Apr 9, 2005

SUNSHINE AND RAINBOWS

Platystemon posted:

Would you describe the WHO epi report’s use of“suspected”, “potential”, and/or “possible” as “pseudoscientific”?

From where I’m sitting, it’s not that different from the tweet’s “may”.

Yeah, it could be misread. So what? You and I know how to read critically and the general public knows that coronavirus is over, drop the balloons, bring in the dancing lobsters.

Might have to start defining words here, but I guess I'll start with a parable.


I do engineering consulting. When a client comes up to me and says, "Would it be possible to...", the answer is almost invariably, "Yes."


That implies nothing about whether it's, "yes, I'll have it done by the end of the day", or "yes, give me $3 million, 5 years, and a team of 15."


However, the client, not a technical person, assumes the former scenario if I don't elaborate.


When a WHO scientist says, "possible increased resistance to neutralizing antibodies", they mean that in a universe of a million parallel universes with every possibility, then yeah, there's totally a lambda variant that ducks vaccines. At that point, they either give a confidence level, or they say, "but we need to study this more to determine how likely that is."

For the latter sentiment, they might say something like, "Further studies are also required to validate the continued effectiveness of vaccines."

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum

DickParasite posted:

lmao two weeks of lockdown and they're ready to concede defeat. Wonder how they'll blame this on Andrews?

There's always been a strong "live with it" contingent in NSW politics. The attempt to lay the blame on migrant communities in the south western suburbs after a few cases is jaw dropping when hundreds of cases are related to the Bondi cluster and not a hint of blame has been laid.

You can hear them drafting their "your fellow citizens let you down" speeches now.

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh

ante posted:

I agree


My complaint is that the media, however, is just mashing that "panic" button real hard.

We have a whole group of fake “alternative” sage doctors who have access to information a month old who get trotted out when the media needs a doom monger. The independent’s guy predicted 400- 800% more hospital cases than there are for example, and the only thing these snake oil salesmen do is frighten people and give more ammunition to lunatic covid deniers.

In the U.K. Unless the stats you use comes from NHS England or a .gov address then treat with extreme suspicion

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh
Incidentally the NHS 119 number is absolute loving horseshit. First time I’ve used it and it took four minutes of confusing nonsense to get put through to the booking line, which was not the option I chose right at the start. Then it automatically cut me off.

And I still can’t get through to the doctors. I may try going down and staring balefully at reception through glass while I scream what needs updating on medical records so my daughter can get jabbed through the intercom.

CaptainSarcastic
Jul 6, 2013



DickParasite posted:

A sizeable portion of the American population simply won't get vaccinated. If you want to blame someone for this blame Murdoch's media for breaking conservatives' brains.

Murdoch should be tried for crimes against humanity, and I'm only partway joking.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

learnincurve posted:

Incidentally the NHS 119 number is absolute loving horseshit. First time I’ve used it and it took four minutes of confusing nonsense to get put through to the booking line, which was not the option I chose right at the start. Then it automatically cut me off.

And I still can’t get through to the doctors. I may try going down and staring balefully at reception through glass while I scream what needs updating on medical records so my daughter can get jabbed through the intercom.

I wouldn't recommend jabbing through an intercom, that's likely to damage the needle.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Lolie posted:

There's always been a strong "live with it" contingent in NSW politics. The attempt to lay the blame on migrant communities in the south western suburbs after a few cases is jaw dropping when hundreds of cases are related to the Bondi cluster and not a hint of blame has been laid.

You can hear them drafting their "your fellow citizens let you down" speeches now.

They're already saying it

quote:

NSW may never control its current COVID-19 outbreak, and be forced to live with the virus for good, Health Minister Brad Hazzard says.

The admission came towards the end of a long press conference and signalled, the possibility at least, of a major pandemic policy shift in Australia's most populous state.

NSW is grappling with an outbreak of the ultra-infectious Delta COVID-19 variant, which has been spreading through the community — albeit at low levels — since last month.

While it started in Sydney's eastern suburbs, the main areas of concern are now in the city's south west, in the local government areas of Liverpool, Fairfield and Canterbury-Bankstown.

The state's chief health officer, Kerry Chant, implored people to reduce their movements around the Harbour City.

On the same day the lockdown affecting Greater Sydney and its surrounds was extended for a week, Mr Hazzard was asked if the state would ever gain control of the Delta COVID-19 variant.

It was put to him that, perhaps, the state should just "give up" — something that would put NSW's strategy at odds with management blueprints in other states and territories.

"If the individuals that we need don't hear Dr Chant's message and don't respond, then at some point we're going to move to a stage where we're going to have to accept that the virus has a life which will continue in the community," he said.

"Particularly for the community in south-west Sydney; Canterbury, Bankstown, Fairfield and Liverpool, [you need] to understand that your individual actions may well determine the future of this virus in our community."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

E: "Governments can only do so much. At the end of the day it is about community and individual responsibility."
https://twitter.com/Qldaah/status/1412632080052195328

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh
Uk is proof positive that you can introduce insane draconian laws for 16 months and it won’t do poo poo but give government more power, because you can’t send an email from a fork lift truck.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

ante posted:

Might have to start defining words here, but I guess I'll start with a parable.


I do engineering consulting.

[…]

When a WHO scientist says, "possible increased resistance to neutralizing antibodies", they mean that in a universe of a million parallel universes with every possibility, then yeah, there's totally a lambda variant that ducks vaccines. At that point, they either give a confidence level, or they say, "but we need to study this more to determine how likely that is."

Let’s run this parable into the ground.

WHO saying “a number of mutations with suspected phenotypic implications” is something like “we need team of inspectors working overtime for a week to get a full report on the structure, but yes, that crack is concerning of interest, and that’s why I’m calling in the team”.

The mutations it has are shared with strains that we know are worse than the wild type, and for some of the mutations we have some understanding of the mechanisms behind it (e.g. binds to ACE‐2 more strongly). No, we don’t know how they interact as a whole, and maybe we’ll find better news than we expected, like that despite the I‐40 bridge in Memphis having a crack that compromised what was considered a critical member, it didn’t actually fall down in the multiple years that crack existed. But it/they are not good signs.

One of the weird things we know about genetics is that Delta (B.1.617.2) doesn’t have E484K. Its sibling Kappa (B.1.617.1) has the similar E484Q, but Delta is demonstrably outcompeting Kappa. Is it actually fitness‐neutral or positive to lack E484Q or is it an evolutionary fluke and it’s more fit in spite of missing that card? Who knows!

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Chikimiki
May 14, 2009
Goddamn we are never getting rid of this poo poo, right? We'll be stuck forever in this hellworld where everything fun is forbidden and/or highly dangerous, but on the flipside we'll still be able to work for scraps and play vidyagames in the little free time we have left!

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