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genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

indigi posted:

thanks that actually clears up a lot of my questions. does the US have a horse in the race or are they too busy trying to consolidate against China

I'm not sure how accurate that was, but when this started we had reports of UAE involvement on the government side. Edit: And the UAE is where all the US mercs hang out.

genericnick has issued a correction as of 08:21 on Jul 6, 2021

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bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

The USA was the unwitting agent behind ending the long running tension between Tajikistan and the Taliban. We couldn't have screwed up more if we tried.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
The Taliban: lower taxes, ease of business, friendly foreign policy

Fiscally liberal, socially conservative

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

gradenko_2000 posted:

The Taliban: lower taxes, ease of business, friendly foreign policy

Fiscally liberal, socially conservative

iirc, two lessons come down from the ages as to how to hold onto occupied or conquered territory:

1. Maintain and continue the local power structures, traditions, laws, and customs
2. Reduce taxes and impositions

there is an optional third lesson, establish cities and send colonies, which Alexander the Great made famous with "Alexandria," now known in Afghanistan as Kandahar. Had George W. wanted to tame Afghanistan, he would have obeyed lessons 1&2. If he wanted to also conquer Afghanistan, he should have moved himself and the government structure to Kandahar or Kabul. George W. Bush did none of these things. It is not impossible to invade and control Afghanistan. The area is a strategic crossroads and armies have poured in from the north, west, and south. And not without success. Both Babur and Alexander numbered Afghanistan as one of their many conquests.

Someone in the Taliban is paying close attention to presenting a better option than the current government. I don't know how long the Afghan state will last but it can't be long.

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011

look i get that doing things that people like is a strategy you can pursue to make people like you

but have you ever considered that doing things that people like is against our moral principles

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/_hudsonc/status/1412458295588163584?s=20

The Tigray conflict is getting more Western coverage as well
https://twitter.com/HelenClarkNZ/status/1411671871750242304?s=20

Here the TPLF spokesman says the government and Amhara forces blowing the bridges was primarily about stopping the TPLF advance.
https://twitter.com/CNNAfrica/status/1412386559702220804?s=20

PawParole
Nov 16, 2019

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1412422312394100747

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1412396283751436288

lol


meanwhile from the other side.

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1412363125203030016

https://twitter.com/markc_anderson/...%5Es1_&ref_url=

PawParole has issued a correction as of 19:39 on Jul 6, 2021

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
https://twitter.com/EllenKnickmeyer/status/1412474132760039426?s=20

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

another drone attack against US positions in Iraq
https://twitter.com/PressTV/status/1412556506021744647?s=20
https://twitter.com/OIRSpox/status/1412527521392963589?s=20

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Ethiopia's corrupt government is on the run!

PawParole
Nov 16, 2019

Nonsense posted:

Ethiopia's corrupt government is on the run!

?

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011

https://twitter.com/Jacquiecharles/status/1412489216416694272

ToxicAcne
May 25, 2014
Why is the NYT whining so hard about the Afghanistan withdrawal? I thought it was basically bipartisan consensus at this point seeing as that Trump started this. I also see alot of comparisons to Vietnam as well and it seems like the revisionist history of the Vietnam war has become dominant in US media.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

ToxicAcne posted:

Why is the NYT whining so hard about the Afghanistan withdrawal? I thought it was basically bipartisan consensus at this point seeing as that Trump started this. I also see alot of comparisons to Vietnam as well and it seems like the revisionist history of the Vietnam war has become dominant in US media.

the US establishment does not actually want to withdraw from Afghanistan. The military was basically openly disobeying Trump when he gave orders that even made noises about trying to do it

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

ToxicAcne posted:

Why is the NYT whining so hard about the Afghanistan withdrawal? I thought it was basically bipartisan consensus at this point seeing as that Trump started this. I also see alot of comparisons to Vietnam as well and it seems like the revisionist history of the Vietnam war has become dominant in US media.

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/TomtheBasedCat/status/1412740853496430603?s=20

Another rocket attack against US forces in Iraq

ToxicAcne
May 25, 2014

gradenko_2000 posted:

the US establishment does not actually want to withdraw from Afghanistan. The military was basically openly disobeying Trump when he gave orders that even made noises about trying to do it

So why is Biden insistent on it then?

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

ToxicAcne posted:

So why is Biden insistent on it then?

it does seem kind of weird combined with the full court press they’re trying to put on China to abandon territory on their border

PawParole
Nov 16, 2019

https://twitter.com/TheWarNerd/status/1412843389607976962

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?
what is he implying needs to be fixed? that there’s an ongoing war, or that they can’t get juicy pics to profit off of?

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

indigi posted:

what is he implying needs to be fixed? that there’s an ongoing war, or that they can’t get juicy pics to profit off of?

That there is a massive war and no one has the slightest idea what's happening. Ethiopia has like 120 million people and yet we had no real indication that a war was about to start, or if it started, that the TPLA would just roll up whole army formations. At least in Syria we had some clear indications of how people were lying to us.

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

genericnick posted:

That there is a massive war and no one has the slightest idea what's happening. Ethiopia has like 120 million people and yet we had no real indication that a war was about to start, or if it started, that the TPLA would just roll up whole army formations. At least in Syria we had some clear indications of how people were lying to us.

I guess I’m still not sure what problem this fixes. I’m sure it didn’t come as a surprise to anyone involved in the actual conflict

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

indigi posted:

what is he implying needs to be fixed? that there’s an ongoing war, or that they can’t get juicy pics to profit off of?

It's simple: We need an Ethiopian Caro

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

indigi posted:

I guess I’m still not sure what problem this fixes. I’m sure it didn’t come as a surprise to anyone involved in the actual conflict

The problem is that our media are poo poo op.

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

ToxicAcne posted:

Why is the NYT whining so hard about the Afghanistan withdrawal? I thought it was basically bipartisan consensus at this point seeing as that Trump started this. I also see alot of comparisons to Vietnam as well and it seems like the revisionist history of the Vietnam war has become dominant in US media.
theyre angling for canceling the withdraw and doing another "surge"

PawParole
Nov 16, 2019

indigi posted:

I guess I’m still not sure what problem this fixes. I’m sure it didn’t come as a surprise to anyone involved in the actual conflict

like 500,000 people have died in the last two years, and not a wimper from western media

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/PMBreakingNews/status/1412870132578324492

yellowcar
Feb 14, 2010

ToxicAcne posted:

Why is the NYT whining so hard about the Afghanistan withdrawal? I thought it was basically bipartisan consensus at this point seeing as that Trump started this. I also see alot of comparisons to Vietnam as well and it seems like the revisionist history of the Vietnam war has become dominant in US media.


gradenko_2000 posted:

the US establishment does not actually want to withdraw from Afghanistan. The military was basically openly disobeying Trump when he gave orders that even made noises about trying to do it

also you have people who think exactly like cia pete and have resource maps of afghanistan hung up in their homes to gaze and ponder at every morning they have their coffee

these people are always constantly hollering about why it's bad to be withdrawing

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

Didn't realize how the alliance between the UAE and Saudi Arabia has weakened. The FT has an article with a similar analysis as well.
https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/status/1412501689265950726?s=20

And speaking of the UAE
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1412866577310040067?s=20

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

comedyblissoption posted:

theyre angling for canceling the withdraw and doing another "surge"

CharlestheHammer
Jun 26, 2011

YOU SAY MY POSTS ARE THE RAVINGS OF THE DUMBEST PERSON ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH BUT YOU YOURSELF ARE READING THEM. CURIOUS!

indigi posted:

it does seem kind of weird combined with the full court press they’re trying to put on China to abandon territory on their border

I mean the real answer is there isn’t a coherent establishment position but a battle between two sides with the warhawks usually winning

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://twitter.com/DXBMediaOffice/status/1412875336543571974?s=19

Damage, if any, to the port is unclear. This is the busiest port for US warships outside the US.

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

any indication this was something other than an accident?

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 25 days!)

Atrocious Joe posted:

Didn't realize how the alliance between the UAE and Saudi Arabia has weakened.

I think this began with Yemen. UAE realized they were eating losses by throwing their resources into a money pit and just pulled out, which left the Saudis to pick up the slack as new separatists sprang up to take Aden.

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

another rocket attack against the US embassy in Iraq
https://twitter.com/nafisehkBBC/status/1412925940552904705?s=20

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

I think this began with Yemen. UAE realized they were eating losses by throwing their resources into a money pit and just pulled out, which left the Saudis to pick up the slack as new separatists sprang up to take Aden.

Yeah, been some time, but didn't the Houthis send a drone over to Dubai airport? Which supposedly got some of the other emirates asking questions about their main guy's Yemen policy. And anyway, they had grabbed a few islands and their economic interests in the main country are with the southern secessionists around Aden so they had little to gain by continuing their involvement.
And also MBS is a coke fueled punk who was always going to push Saudi Arabia's hegemonic status until the levers came off. He overplayed his hand with Qatar, Yemen and I assume now with the UAE.

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

Not greatly impressed by that article, but this is a good point:

"The Real Reason OPEC Talks Broke Down | naked capitalism posted:


At the same time, Mohammed bin Salman has been aggressively pushing Saudi Arabia’s regional power. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the Kingdom’s economic diversification plan, has driven the crown prince to take aim on other GCC countries as he attempts to force international investors and companies to set up shop in Saudi Arabia rather than Dubai or Doha. This transformation in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE certainly played a part in the recent OPEC+ conflict.

Riyadh is also targeting the logistics industry, an industry that the UAE has long dominated, establishing itself as a regional hub for logistics and connecting EU-Asian commodity and trade flows. In the last couple of months, Saudi Arabia has become increasingly aggressive in this space. While there has no been a direct conflict in this area, it is generally assumed that there is not enough space in the region for two supra-regional maritime logistic hubs. MBZ and Dubai are clearly unimpressed with Saudi Arabia’s attempts to muscle in on the industry.
Edit: The FT linked above makes it more explicit:

"Opec impasse sees UAE ‘flexing its muscles’ against Saudi Arabia | Financial Times posted:

Saudi Arabia’s threat to cut off multinationals from lucrative government contracts if they do not relocate their headquarters to Riyadh has been perceived as an implicit attack on Dubai, the UAE’s commercial hub where most are based.

genericnick has issued a correction as of 09:01 on Jul 8, 2021

Maximo Roboto
Feb 4, 2012


hmm well now there are U.S. troops who have the free time to redeploy to Iraq

genericnick posted:

And also MBS is a coke fueled punk who was always going to push Saudi Arabia's hegemonic status until the levers came off. He overplayed his hand with Qatar, Yemen and I assume now with the UAE.

What do the Qataris and the Emiratis feel about one another? I think they're probably rivals but it would seem to be a no-brainer for all of these small Gulf states (Bahrain, Oman, etc.) to band up against the Saudis

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Iran is barking up the wrong tree

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Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

the FBI helped the UAE locate Princess Latifa's boat in 2018, which led to her escape attempt failing
https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1412982631550099460?s=20

quote:

A USA TODAY investigation established that the FBI, responding to an urgent plea from the powerful Dubai leader's office, provided assistance essential to her capture.

The FBI obtained and provided data about the yacht's location to the Dubai government after officials there claimed the princess had been kidnapped and needed emergency aid to secure her release, according to multiple people familiar with the FBI's role in the highly sensitive operation.

Sheikh Mohammed declined to comment through legal representatives, but he has maintained in court records that he rescued the princess, and he has repeatedly rejected claims of mistreating her. USA TODAY's sources said they believe the FBI was misled about her circumstances aboard the yacht, prompting the agents to obtain geolocation data from Nostromo's U.S.-based internet service provider and supply it to the Dubai government.

In doing that, the agents may have violated FBI protocols, legal experts said, if they obtained the data without subpoenaing the provider, as normally would be required.

It was not immediately clear whether the FBI, which declined to comment on the matter, was aware the request for help appears to have been been misleading.

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