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Nice pre-weekend rally would be nice for my SPY calls so I’m expecting a total bloodbath today.
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Jul 9, 2021 13:15
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ranbo das posted:A person in one of my friend circles dropped me a link to an "investing discord" he was part of, turns out it was one of those selling signals TA discords and he was just looking for referral money. Anyway I decided to hang out for the free trial just out of curiosity, and made a spreadsheet of all their calls. Turns out that statistically their calls were roughly on par with throwing darts at stocks, and the only reason I suspect they could keep the grift up is they almost exclusively predicted prices going up during a bull market. if they gave stop price and target price, what was the risk:reward ratio? taking into account their average win rate, did they have positive expectancy? you can be wrong more than 50% of the time (stop out) but if your winning trades are much bigger than your losing trades, you're going to make money problem with the dart board analogy is that it doesn't take into account risk:reward and expectancy. it only considers win rate, which is dumb a stock-picking discord might just be part of a pump and dump scheme--i joined a few crypto telegrams back when i started trading and that's literally what they were--but if i'm giving them the benefit of doubt, i have to ask those questions. Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 13:26 on Jul 9, 2021 |
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Jul 9, 2021 13:24
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I'm interested in TA since between all of the goat entrails, tea leaves, and tarot cards, there may be a statistical something. Stock prices are just time series data in the end, and you absolutely can make statistical inference on social phenomenon. Any fruit born of this carries the same caveats other statistical methods do: they can't be generalized outside of the sample population, deal strictly in probability, and do not say anything about a given point in time. Like just because a price movement is 5 standard deviations from the mean does not mean the next move will be a correction or rally--but there may be a good chance that the next move will be something. Reduce trading to probability, and then Uranium's comment about risk reward ratios makes sense and it becomes more like blackjack or poker than craps or roulette. At least, that's my hypothesis.
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Jul 9, 2021 13:36
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Le0 posted:drat I should have bought HGEN!! Appearantly they got a marketing authorization for covid treatment in the UK, which triggered the jump. It's not the full eua approval yet, so I'm hoping for another huge spike. Pretty glad I stick with this one for sure!
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Jul 9, 2021 13:41
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Proponents of TA make one simple logical mistake: A certain public sentiment in a stock leaves a certain mark in the charts, therefore all charts contain a readable predictor of public sentiment. This doesn't hold, even if public sentiment indeed leaves certain marks in the charts.
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Jul 9, 2021 13:43
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Ola posted:Proponents of TA make one simple logical mistake: Enough people use TA as part of their trading / part of algos that it becomes real. It is a self fulfilling prophesy with enough people buying in. That's why it seems to work more than it doesn't but not like super accurate.
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Jul 9, 2021 13:48
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pixaal posted:Enough people use TA as part of their trading / part of algos that it becomes real. It is a self fulfilling prophesy with enough people buying in. That's why it seems to work more than it doesn't but not like super accurate. Yeah I like to call it the ouija board effect. But it doesn't happen in big volume stocks or even in hot meme stocks IMO, but perhaps in currencies, futures and stuff that is 95% speculators and 5% original intended use. I've seen it happen, things look like a H&S pattern and sure enough it kicks in on the shoulder exactly. Then it pops back up like nothing happened. The pattern came true because enough people tried to make it happen, it just didn't end up mattering much.
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Jul 9, 2021 13:55
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Unless you’re trading purely on fundamentals or dollar cost averaging you’re doing some sort of TA even if you don’t call it that. MACDs and RSIs and VWAPs and lines and bands are trying to formalize something that you’re doing if you’re buying and selling for a non-fundamental reason. Just by formalizing it you’re creating something that can be tested and validated or rejected.
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Jul 9, 2021 14:02
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Ola posted:Proponents of TA make one simple logical mistake: i think you have the idea that people who use TA are always trading. that isn't true. always scanning for trades--yeah, maybe. but a good trader doesn't trade until they find the specific conditions that they know gives them a positive expectancy. if they don't see those conditions then they shouldn't trade. it's less about "i do TA so i always know what a stock will do" and more about "i do TA so i sometimes see setups with positive expectancy and when i see those setups i take them" Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Unless you’re trading purely on fundamentals or dollar cost averaging you’re doing some sort of TA even if you don’t call it that. MACDs and RSIs and VWAPs and lines and bands are trying to formalize something that you’re doing if you’re buying and selling for a non-fundamental reason. Just by formalizing it you’re creating something that can be tested and validated or rejected. exactly. when i see people in a trading thread talking about how TA doesn't work, i just think... wtf are you doing that's better? please, tell us
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Jul 9, 2021 14:02
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Lots of premarket green in my portfolio, looking forward to seeing it all go red before I can sell them.
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Jul 9, 2021 14:02
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pixaal posted:Enough people use TA as part of their trading / part of algos that it becomes real. It is a self fulfilling prophesy with enough people buying in. That's why it seems to work more than it doesn't but not like super accurate. all that TA boils down to is trying to identify when and at what price there are supply/demand imbalances, and trying to profit from them
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Jul 9, 2021 14:11
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and btw if you're a retail trader, you better hope that TA works because otherwise you're 100% hosed and never going to make money in the markets beyond blind luck. how can you compete with institutions who have practically unlimited resources and access to information before you do, have massive staffs of professional finance nerds, etc? you can never beat them at the fundamental aspects of determining value. thinking in terms of stories ("covid is ending so people will go to hotels more, therefore buy AHT") doesn't work because obviously the institutions can understand that same basic concept, but they know way more about that thesis and the company than you do. you think they just overlooked that AHT owns hotels and people might start going on vacations? institutions can and do gently caress up when it comes to valuations but they're a lot better than we are with TA you're just watching the markets to see what big money is doing, and you grab the fin of the whale and let them pull you along Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 14:29 on Jul 9, 2021 |
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Jul 9, 2021 14:25
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Cocaine rebounds are back on the menu boys
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Jul 9, 2021 14:44
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SlothBear posted:Kicking myself, I called the jump on AMBL but placed my buyin too conservatively and missed the bus. C'est la vie. Do you mean ABML? The current price is still reasonable, I think.
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Jul 9, 2021 14:57
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Red posted:Do you mean ABML? The current price is still reasonable, I think. Well I was referring to NAMBLA to go along with my GAYMF derivatives
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Jul 9, 2021 15:00
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Huh. Gains today completely wiped out yesterday's losses.cr0y posted:Well I was referring to NAMBLA to go along with my GAYMF derivatives I uh I see
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Jul 9, 2021 15:28
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Uranium 235 posted:and btw if you're a retail trader, you better hope that TA works because otherwise you're 100% hosed and never going to make money in the markets beyond blind luck. how can you compete with institutions who have practically unlimited resources and access to information before you do, have massive staffs of professional finance nerds, etc? you can never beat them at the fundamental aspects of determining value. thinking in terms of stories ("covid is ending so people will go to hotels more, therefore buy AHT") doesn't work because obviously the institutions can understand that same basic concept, but they know way more about that thesis and the company than you do. you think they just overlooked that AHT owns hotels and people might start going on vacations? Totally disagree with this post. While retail traders are not going to out-complete wall street and hedge funds for financial research on megacaps like AAPL, there is plenty of opportunity in the thousands of other stocks out there for someone to discover a market mispricing. I've done it recently with both VSTO and LEVI, research based on fundamentals (quarterly and TTM earnings histories, etc.) and consumer trends (ammo shortages, Levi's CEO talking about Amercian waist sizes changing, other consumer clothing stock results, etc.). On some stocks, wall street doesn't react en masse until after the fact. Peter Lynch made a whole career out of trading what you know and stories. Other more modern day equivalents also look at information (or "social") arbitrage such as @ChrisCamillo. On the flipside, I recently called out AHT and IVR as being way overpriced and only having social media pump-and-dump upside based on fundamentals vs price (and the fact that they're REITs, which operate a little differently than other stocks) and we know how those turned out. If institutions were efficient everywhere, as you say, those would've been shorted much earlier. There's just too many stocks out there for wall street to perfectly cover all the time, too many of them have too low market cap for them to really care, and the "markets" are not infallible anyway.
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Jul 9, 2021 15:29
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Red posted:Do you mean ABML? The current price is still reasonable, I think. I did, and you could well be right.
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Jul 9, 2021 15:36
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I wanna add one more comment in response to U235 -- Just because someone discovers a mispricing in a stock doesn't mean (a) that they're the only one who found it, or (b) that their insight will be rewarded in a timely manner. I didn't state either thing, but I want to make it clear that I also didn't mean to imply either thing.
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Jul 9, 2021 15:41
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I've learned I really don't know what to do with stocks when they keep bumping around all time highs. Also - What do we realistically think about AHT at this point? I have cheap calls that haven't moved in either direction and I'm thinking about just dumping them to get them off my books, but I do like cheap calls. Maybe I should just set a tight trailing stop on them and forget I have them. cr0y fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Jul 9, 2021 |
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Jul 9, 2021 16:06
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Uranium 235 posted:i'm not gonna seriously defend stock-picking chats because i think most, maybe all, are scammy. but just curious, did they give a stop price ("sell if the price gets below this") and a target price? only a target price? or neither? I've bounced around quite a few trading discords over the past couple of years just to get ideas and such. You are absolutely right that most of them are scammy as hell. A couple of them are big enough that when they announce an option pick all the people piling in drives the price up enough for them to declare victory and call an exit on that movement alone. Some of them have one or two guys making calls that aren't too bad but still not really worth following. On the other hand, I am in two private discords that are not trading discords at all but they each have one options guy for some weird reason. I've been keeping an eye on both the past couple of months and they are scarily good. One guy only calls entries and leaves it up to you to pick your exit, although he sometimes nudges people to take profit. Watching the price action on his calls there are almost always great profits if you don't get stupid/greedy and exit at 10%+. The other guy calls entries, stop loss, and exits. The big difference between them and all the other trading discords I've been in is they each barely make any picks. Some days none at all and most days just one, maaaybe two. Neither of them ever says anything at all about their strategies or reasoning but they seem to be mostly momentum traders who have very tight criteria on what they consider a good entry price. Supposedly, they both work at trading firms. After watching them for quite a while I finally jumped in and started throwing some gambling money at their picks a couple weeks ago and I am up well over 100% off their calls and would be even more except I get stupid/greedy and don't always exit when I should.
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Jul 9, 2021 16:14
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SlothBear posted:I did, and you could well be right. ABML seems well run, it's in an important sector, and the stock is cheap. Link: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/american-battery-metals-corporation-files-123000745.html quote:RENO, NV / ACCESSWIRE / May 20, 2021 / American Battery Metals Corporation (OTCQB:ABML) (the "Company"), an American-owned lithium-ion battery recycling technology and advanced extraction company with extensive mineral resources in Nevada, which is in the process of changing its name to American Battery Technology Company, today announced that it has submitted a formal application to list its common shares on the Nasdaq Stock Market ("NASDAQ"). That said, I have like 52 shares with a cost basis around the current price, and have it as a long-term hold. I'm probably fine with that position, and would certainly be just fine buying in later at a higher price as they grow.
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Jul 9, 2021 16:18
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pmchem posted:Totally disagree with this post. While retail traders are not going to out-complete wall street and hedge funds for financial research on megacaps like AAPL, there is plenty of opportunity in the thousands of other stocks out there for someone to discover a market mispricing. I've done it recently with both VSTO and LEVI, research based on fundamentals (quarterly and TTM earnings histories, etc.) and consumer trends (ammo shortages, Levi's CEO talking about Amercian waist sizes changing, other consumer clothing stock results, etc.). On some stocks, wall street doesn't react en masse until after the fact. Peter Lynch made a whole career out of trading what you know and stories. Other more modern day equivalents also look at information (or "social") arbitrage such as @ChrisCamillo. while the average retail trader is at a disadvantage when it comes to fundamentals (and if you disagree with this let me know... i would be surprised if you do), they really aren't at a disadvantage when it comes to technical analysis. the average person is much more capable of reading and understanding charts and what they're saying about the actors in a market than they are of determining fundamental value of a company. that's what i'm trying to say another thing about fundamentals is that sometimes companies will put out a press release, or analysts will publish an upgrade/downgrade/price target, and that will get the market to move a certain way. then the company will issue an offering and dump supply onto all the new buyers, or an investment bank will buy up shares that people sold after a downgrade. lots of games get played like that and it's hard to know what new information is actually going to give you edge, and what's going to take it away. that doesn't mean that fundamentals/news are worthless, just that there are ways that big money can manipulate you with news. (to be fair the same thing happens with price action...) i agree re: market efficiency. markets aren't perfectly efficient and institutions can't price things efficiently even if they really wanted to, which is why it's possible to profit from trading at all. a perfectly efficient market would instantaneously react to new information and there'd be no price discovery period where volatility is high. it would just be straight line moves to whatever is the 'true' value. anyway i listened to an interview with chris camillo recently that was really interesting. maybe you've already heard it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFtdVoQbrvU Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 16:37 on Jul 9, 2021 |
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Jul 9, 2021 16:32
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https://twitter.com/Stocktwits/status/1413519960157179921?s=19 *reads through thread* Owned it...Owned it...Owned it...made money on it surprisingly...Owned it...Owned it... I might be bad at this. Bought spy calls yesterday. 
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Jul 9, 2021 16:32
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SPY just shrugging off yesterday and just blasted to new ATH
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Jul 9, 2021 16:37
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that's my spy
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Jul 9, 2021 16:48
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phone posting but U235, I agree some light TA can complement a fundamental or narrative thesis and use that, too. I just thought your post came off a little strong suggesting TA was the only hope for retail. Sounds like we kinda agree in several respects.
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Jul 9, 2021 17:11
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okay so someone explain this to me. STMP shot up today from $197.22 yesterday to $320+ right now on the news that its being bought and being taken private. The company that bought them out is going to pay $330 a share. Doesn't that means anything <$330 is profit if you buy the stock and wait for them to buy the share?
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Jul 9, 2021 17:40
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The diff is the risk of the deal falling through.
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Jul 9, 2021 17:47
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Someone do me some TA and tell me if I should hang onto these SPY 8/9 $440c. I have a bad habit of not letting runners run... 🤔 (Currently up 50%)
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Jul 9, 2021 18:03
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Strong Sauce posted:okay so someone explain this to me. STMP shot up today from $197.22 yesterday to $320+ right now on the news that its being bought and being taken private. The company that bought them out is going to pay $330 a share. Doesn't that means anything <$330 is profit if you buy the stock and wait for them to buy the share? read about risk arbitrage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_arbitrage
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Jul 9, 2021 18:18
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pmchem posted:phone posting but U235, I agree some light TA can complement a fundamental or narrative thesis and use that, too. I just thought your post came off a little strong suggesting TA was the only hope for retail. Sounds like we kinda agree in several respects. I like some light TA, especially in retail, moreso in service though.
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Jul 9, 2021 18:32
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StormDrain posted:I like some light TA, especially in retail, moreso in service though.  I wonder how the TSLA cult will handle the outcome of this one https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1413447879994134530?s=19 cr0y fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Jul 9, 2021 |
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Jul 9, 2021 18:45
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Woodchip posted:The diff is the risk of the deal falling through. Uranium 235 posted:read about risk arbitrage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_arbitrage thanks. i assumed there wasn't a high chance of that happening if they announced it and the deal wasn't hostile based off that price it opened at 322.71, and where it started 197.72.. and round the loss to -$125 if the deal falls through. the market is saying there's a 7.4% chance this deal falls through, which means less risky than average. (according to that wiki page) fake edit: as i typed this out the ask is going to $324+ already so i'm guessing people still think there's some money there.
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Jul 9, 2021 18:53
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Lucira going to the stratosphere, congrats to anyone who got in on those cheap $10 calls with me after the Microsoft announcecment I'm taking my 250% gains so watch it go up 5,000% now
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Jul 9, 2021 18:54
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Alerted SGOC this morning at $3 but was too busy at work to look at the chart. Makes me sad
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Jul 9, 2021 19:34
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Jesus SPY
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Jul 9, 2021 19:35
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Hey, VOO crossed $400, neat
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Jul 9, 2021 20:05
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every time i say "ah it's the beginning of the correction the market desperately needs", the following day see the markets rockets to a new record high
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Jul 9, 2021 20:16
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Uranium 235 posted:and btw if you're a retail trader, you better hope that TA works because otherwise you're 100% hosed and never going to make money in the markets beyond blind luck. how can you compete with institutions who have practically unlimited resources and access to information before you do, have massive staffs of professional finance nerds, etc? you can never beat them at the fundamental aspects of determining value. Uranium 235 posted:it's not that i don't think retail traders can't use insights about fundamentals to find trades, it's that an average retail trader is at a massive disadvantage when it comes to knowing the fundamental value of a stock, and coming up with a narrative about why a stock should be valued higher/lower is generally just not going to work, with AHT being a recent example from this thread You have this exactly reversed, because all of these arguments apply a hundred times more to technical analysis than they apply to trading on fundamentals. Institutions have unlimited data and resources to throw at pure price action over the entire market at whatever timescale they like, and you think that you're going to consistently beat them by staring at staring at lines on a chart. They can spend billions doing statistical analysis, training "deep learning" models, etc. on the exact same data you think determines the future in a fashion so simplistic that you can predict it in your head. You're implying you can somehow beat them on a well-defined, perfect information problem (i.e. predict the short-term future price action based on the near-term past price action) more easily than you can on an ill-defined problem that people have been arguing about for centuries (i.e. predict the medium-to-long-term share price based on predicted future financial results and real-world events). To me that's as ridiculous as saying it's much easier for an AI to write a gripping novel about the life of a cat than it is for an AI to recognise a picture of a cat.
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Jul 9, 2021 20:21
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