UKMT Summer 2021: I didn't paddleboard while Kabul fell, the sea was closed

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT Summer 2021: I didn't paddleboard while Kabul fell, the sea was closed

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Do you prefer the extended summer thread format? This poll is closed.
Yes	126	44.21%
No	39	13.68%
I'm Scottish	120	42.11%
Total:	285 votes

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Adolf Glitter posted:

Reading the guardian comments is a big mistake.

Did you know that the single shrillest sound in the world is made by Guardian readers who feel that current affairs are not following the trajectory that they'd prefer?

It's true, they did a scientific study and everything.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 12:35

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# ? May 24, 2024 19:22

Jakabite: Jul 31, 2010

goddamnedtwisto posted:

No, you've actually got it right with the idea of a sliding scale.

The outcome of such a high efficacy is that it's *effectively* all or nothing for the majority of people without underlying conditions because they already start from such a low chance, but this is still meaningless on an individual level. Your chances of dying or sustaining severe injuries in a car crash are reduced hugely by wearing a seatbelt, but people in seatbelts still die every day in car crashes.

I think I get it. How does this work with vulnerable people? Generally the vaccine is much more relatively efficacious in them?

# ? Jul 17, 2021 12:36

Julio Cruz: May 19, 2006

Adolf Glitter posted:

~~Reading~~ the guardian ~~comments~~ is a big mistake.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 12:36

jacksbrat: Oct 15, 2012

Gonzo McFee posted:

https://twitter.com/jrc1921/status/1416313795371278337?s=19

Things can only get marginally worse

I just loving hate this idea that having a clear set of policy aims that might be quite aspirational is inherently bad, and that the best thing to do is not offer anything. Like you have to do the compromising up front instead of, you know, clearly fighting for something and negotiating from an ideal stance instead of pissing yourself into a corner with compromises that nobody's asked for yet.

Edit:

Pistol_Pete posted:

Did you know that the single shrillest sound in the world is made by Guardian readers who feel that current affairs are not following the trajectory that they'd prefer?

It's true, they did a scientific study and everything.

Lol it's exactly this. You must just go for the most reasonable offering or else you're wrong and I, the humble guardian reader with 2+ degrees, know what's reasonable.

Had lots of infuriating convos this week, people like certain left policies but find our union/the "Marxists" too extreme because it's "all or nothing". No it's not, they're just setting out their ideals and aims without showing their hands like a moron who trusts the wallet inspector would.

jacksbrat fucked around with this message at 12:47 on Jul 17, 2021

# ? Jul 17, 2021 12:43

jiggerypokery: Feb 1, 2012; ...But I could hardly wait six months with a red hot jape like that under me belt.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

No, you've actually got it right with the idea of a sliding scale.

The outcome of such a high efficacy is that it's *effectively* all or nothing for the majority of people without underlying conditions because they already start from such a low chance, but this is still meaningless on an individual level. Your chances of dying or sustaining severe injuries in a car crash are reduced hugely by wearing a seatbelt, but people in seatbelts still die every day in car crashes.

It's not a sliding scale, that's a super common misconception. I thought the same thing till I had this explained to me by someone who works in pharmacology.

A 90% effective vaccine breaks the reproductive cycle of a virus in the cells of 90% of people.

This is why chicken pox parties work. Once kids have had it, they can't just get a little chicken pox later. They are immune in that the chickenpox virus can't reproduce in their cells any more.

Bacteria works on a sliding scale because it can replicate quite happily. The more white blood cells tuned to it that a person has, the faster it dies.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 12:49

jiggerypokery: Feb 1, 2012; ...But I could hardly wait six months with a red hot jape like that under me belt.

Jakabite posted:

I think I get it. How does this work with vulnerable people? Generally the vaccine is much more relatively efficacious in them?

No, a vulnerable person may either have a lower chance of developing immunity when vaccinated, or more severe symptoms if they do get infected, or both.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 12:53

kyojin: Jun 15, 2005; I MASHED THE KEYS AND LOOK WHAT I MADE

I'm not an epidemiologist so I'm happy, indeed eager, to be corrected, but: the effectiveness % of the vaccine was calculated by giving ~20k people the vaccine and ~20k people a placebo and comparing the number of people in each group who developed symptoms. In the case of pfizer i think this was 8 people in the vaccine group and 84 in the placebo group, thus vaccinated people are 90% less likely to develop symptoms, thus 90% effective.

Not at all to say that the figure is not legitimate (it has been subsequently demonstrated to be accurate at population scale) but its based on that large-scale test and its outcome, nothing more sophisticated than that. Different variants will affect that figure, as we are about to find out; https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-confirms-vaccine-less-effective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/ good luck everyone

edit;

jiggerypokery posted:

A 90% effective vaccine breaks the reproductive cycle of a virus in the cells of 90% of people.

I'm not a pharmacologist either so again happy to be set straight by those knowing better, but this is not how the 90% figure for the covid vaccines was derived, it was derived from the trial.

kyojin fucked around with this message at 13:00 on Jul 17, 2021

# ? Jul 17, 2021 12:57

Comrade Fakename: Feb 13, 2012

https://twitter.com/theidsmiths/status/1416364818701881345

# ? Jul 17, 2021 12:58

Spangly A: May 14, 2009; God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

jiggerypokery posted:

It's not a sliding scale, that's a super common misconception. I thought the same thing till I had this explained to me by someone who works in pharmacology.

A 90% effective vaccine breaks the reproductive cycle of a virus in the cells of 90% of people.

This is why chicken pox parties work. Once kids have had it, they can't just get a little chicken pox later. They are immune in that the chickenpox virus can't reproduce in their cells any more.

Bacteria works on a sliding scale because it can replicate quite happily. The more white blood cells tuned to it that a person has, the faster it dies.

Please don't encourage pox parties, that's how you get shingles and postherpetic neuralgia. They don't work, they just ensure everyone has a dormant infection that will wake up whenever you become immunocompromised.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:19

Bobby Deluxe: May 9, 2004

Jakabite posted:

I think I get it. How does this work with vulnerable people? Generally the vaccine is much more relatively efficacious in them?

Willing to be corrected, but an immunocompromised patient generally has a weaker, less effective immune system, so even if you give them a 'model' to practice on or an RNA instruction so they recognise the virus, it may not be strong enough to fight it off, even if it recognises it.

Most of the time your immune system wins by attrition, simply by throwing enough of the right types of white blood cells at the intruder until it is overwhelmed. If your body doesn't produce enough cells, it can 'know' the right ones to produce thanks to the vaccine, but still fail to fight the virus because it can't produce enough of them.

Sort of like how in a one-on-one or even three-on-one fight against Connor McGregor, most of us would lose painfully. A twenty-to-one fight would be a different story though.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:24

TACD: Oct 27, 2000

Bobby Deluxe posted:

Sort of like how in a one-on-one or even three-on-one fight against Connor McGregor, most of us would lose painfully.

Well, not anymore :v:

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:28

jiggerypokery: Feb 1, 2012; ...But I could hardly wait six months with a red hot jape like that under me belt.

kyojin posted:

I'm not a pharmacologist either so again happy to be set straight by those knowing better, but this is not how the 90% figure for the covid vaccines was derived, it was derived from the trial.

Yeah but that isn't contraditory to what I'm saying.

When they do the trial they need to come to an efficacy number and convince the regulators of the statistical certainty of the number they came to. Counting the differences in groups of people getting symptoms in a double blind study gives them an efficacy number with a reasonable amount of certainty. The more people, the more certainty.

They can publish that 90% number and call it efficacy if they can show the statistical certainty of the number is high enough and the range of possible efficacy is low enough.

The peer review and regulators have to agree on the efficacy number and the certainty by looking closely at how they came to it.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:35

NoneMoreNegative: Jul 20, 2000; GOTH FASCISTIC
PAIN MASTER

shit wizard dad

https://twitter.com/darren_cullen/status/1344697328058437632?s=20

:madmax:

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:35

Powerful Two-Hander: Mar 10, 2004; Mods please change my name to "Tooter Skeleton" TIA.

NoneMoreNegative posted:

https://twitter.com/darren_cullen/status/1344697328058437632?s=20

Mad Max Hastings: EU Road

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:40

jiggerypokery: Feb 1, 2012; ...But I could hardly wait six months with a red hot jape like that under me belt.

Spangly A posted:

Please don't encourage pox parties, that's how you get shingles and postherpetic neuralgia. They don't work, they just ensure everyone has a dormant infection that will wake up whenever you become immunocompromised.

I'm only saying that they "work" in the sense that herd immunity "works". Not that they are a good idea.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:41

Julio Cruz: May 19, 2006

where can I sign up for the chance to beat Conor McGregor shitless with 19 pals

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:42

Nothingtoseehere: Nov 11, 2010

Vulnerable people are medically a huge group - from those with weakened immune systems, to those who have other conditions that may exacerbate symptoms (we've got data from the first wave on the biggest comorbidities, but there's plenty of rare conditions we don't know enough about to know the effects with certainty). Some will have less effect from the vaccine, some will be equal or more. It's impossible to say for such a diverse group.

jiggerypokery posted:

It's not a sliding scale, that's a super common misconception. I thought the same thing till I had this explained to me by someone who works in pharmacology.

A 90% effective vaccine breaks the reproductive cycle of a virus in the cells of 90% of people.

This is why chicken pox parties work. Once kids have had it, they can't just get a little chicken pox later. They are immune in that the chickenpox virus can't reproduce in their cells any more.

Bacteria works on a sliding scale because it can replicate quite happily. The more white blood cells tuned to it that a person has, the faster it dies.

You've misunderstood something then, because vaccination totally does reduce the severity of disease rather than being all-or-nothing. This has been very clear in all the trial data, where the number of hospitalizations and deaths is reduced by much more (95-%99%) than the number of PCR cases (70%-80% for delta IIRC).

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:42

Spangly A: May 14, 2009; God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

jiggerypokery posted:

I'm only saying that they "work" in the sense that herd immunity "works". Not that they are a good idea.

fair enough.

jiggerypokery posted:

It's not a sliding scale, that's a super common misconception. I thought the same thing till I had this explained to me by someone who works in pharmacology.

A 90% effective vaccine breaks the reproductive cycle of a virus in the cells of 90% of people.

This is why chicken pox parties work. Once kids have had it, they can't just get a little chicken pox later. They are immune in that the chickenpox virus can't reproduce in their cells any more.

Bacteria works on a sliding scale because it can replicate quite happily. The more white blood cells tuned to it that a person has, the faster it dies.

yknow pox parties aside I'm still not certain this is right. This sounds like you're describing the efficacy of a vaccine that offers sterilising immunity, and no covid vaccine does this. If efficacy rates were a reflection on the ability to halt viral reproduction, we wouldn't have seen death and hospitalisation rates decouple - if the virus can't reproduce then the infection is over after a few hours with flu-like symptoms. Instead we're seeing vulnerable people get sick and recover.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:45

happyhippy: Feb 21, 2005; Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup; Pillbug

https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1416375392374513668

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:47

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

Fairly sure I could take that McGreggs man single handed if he was walking unawares down a canal tow path and I had a sock full of lead shot and the element of surprise.

Public health early intervention works the same way.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:49

knox_harrington: Feb 18, 2011; Running no point.

jiggerypokery posted:

It's not a sliding scale, that's a super common misconception. I thought the same thing till I had this explained to me by someone who works in pharmacology.

A 90% effective vaccine breaks the reproductive cycle of a virus in the cells of 90% of people.

This is why chicken pox parties work. Once kids have had it, they can't just get a little chicken pox later. They are immune in that the chickenpox virus can't reproduce in their cells any more.

Bacteria works on a sliding scale because it can replicate quite happily. The more white blood cells tuned to it that a person has, the faster it dies.

You are wrong I'm afraid, that's not what vaccine efficacy means. It's risk of disease in vaccinated vs unvaccinated. Have a look here.

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section6.html

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:50

Julio Cruz: May 19, 2006

Guavanaut posted:

Fairly sure I could take that McGreggs man single handed if he was walking unawares down a canal tow path and I had a sock full of lead shot and the element of surprise.

he�s probably still on crutches after his last fight so that would also help

(do not look up the video if you are at all squeamish about legs bending where they shouldn�t)

Julio Cruz fucked around with this message at 14:15 on Jul 17, 2021

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:52

Jaeluni Asjil: Apr 18, 2018; Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:54

Brendan Rodgers: Jun 11, 2014

Guavanaut posted:

Fairly sure I could take that McGreggs man single handed if he was walking unawares down a canal tow path and I had a sock full of lead shot and the element of surprise.

Public health early intervention works the same way.

Zangief agrees though he would simply suplex him into the canal to prove the superiority of Communism.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 13:58

Bobby Deluxe: May 9, 2004

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

onlyfans

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:10

happyhippy: Feb 21, 2005; Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup; Pillbug

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

GBNews full hour show.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:15

Barry Foster: Dec 24, 2007; What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)

Second Jab: Get

5G online, Reactors online, Sensors online. All systems nominal

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:19

Jaeluni Asjil: Apr 18, 2018; Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!

Barry Foster posted:

Second Jab: Get

5G online, Reactors online, Sensors online. All systems nominal

This 5G chip is useless. I went on google maps just now and it has plonked me in Tring. (I'm in South Wales). Huh. Makes a change from Sheffield or Glasgow I guess! Last week it decided I was in Devon.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:23

Bobstar: Feb 8, 2006; KartooshFace, you are not responding efficiently!

Mebh posted:

I also seem to have grown a 10 foot tall sunflower with 10 flowers and a stem as thick as my wrist.

Not now, invasion of the Triffids :mad:

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:28

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

happyhippy posted:

https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1416375392374513668

It's okay, people that matter only have mild symptoms so open everything up, time for

NoneMoreNegative posted:

https://twitter.com/darren_cullen/status/1344697328058437632?s=20

Saj Vax - Tory Road

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:29

Soylent Yellow: Nov 5, 2010; yospos

Barry Foster posted:

Second Jab: Get

5G online, Reactors online, Sensors online. All systems nominal

Experiencing a mild fever after the second vaccine is quite common. If you do, don't worry, it's just extra heat generated by the bitcoin mining program.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:31

Catzilla: May 12, 2003; "Untie the queen"

Guavanaut posted:

It's okay, people that matter only have mild symptoms so open everything up, time for

Saj Vax - Tory Road

UKMT Summer 2021: Saj Vax - Tory Road

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:32

Tindalos: May 1, 2008

Gonzo McFee posted:

https://twitter.com/jrc1921/status/1416313795371278337?s=19

Things can only get marginally worse

Love that bit about "politicians care about older people rather than younger people solely because they vote."

Can't possibly be that younger people don't vote because politicians ignore them and have admitted just then that they can't do anything. It's gotta be the young people's fault.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:36

Gonzo McFee: Jun 19, 2010

Younger people started voting for a brief spell and HR Gobshite shat herself with rage.

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:39

Just Another Lurker: May 1, 2009

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

This 5G chip is useless. I went on google maps just now and it has plonked me in Tring. (I'm in South Wales). Huh. Makes a change from Sheffield or Glasgow I guess! Last week it decided I was in Devon.

Pretty sure that is your clones location and not yours, damned things are glitching atm and we don't even reach Solar Maximum till 2025-26. :science:

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:42

radmonger: Jun 6, 2011

jiggerypokery posted:

Yeah but that isn't contraditory to what I'm saying.

It�s not contradictory in the sense that both _could_ be true, but that doesn�t mean they both are.

And I only got A level biology, so I�m but you seem to be making several positive claims about how things specifically work that don�t match what I�ve seen elsewhere. Are you just speaking loosely and don�t actually mean what you say? Or do you have some other information source I am missing that backs those claims?

I mean, surely if effectiveness was a simple binary between work or not, there would be only two possible outcomes. One of which is you didn�t notice you were infected, and one where you got sicker and sicker until you died?

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:42

Barry Foster: Dec 24, 2007; What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)

Soylent Yellow posted:

Experiencing a mild fever after the second vaccine is quite common. If you do, don't worry, it's just extra heat generated by the bitcoin mining program.

gently caress, bitcoin sucks though

Can I get a monero booster shot

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:54

learnincurve: May 15, 2014; Smoosh

I�m absolutely befuddled and baffled by this conversation - I thought we�d known there is a correlation between vaccines and a lower risk of severe covid if you catch it for a while now?

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/vaccination-reduces-the-risk-of-severe-covid-19-infection

# ? Jul 17, 2021 14:57

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

Barry Foster posted:

Can I get a monero booster shot

Tim Farron says the Montero booster shot is made out of gay satans to turn everyone into snakes. Or maybe made out of snakes to turn everyone into gay satan. Either way sounds rad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6swmTBVI83k

# ? Jul 17, 2021 15:00

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# ? May 24, 2024 19:22

smellmycheese: Feb 1, 2016

Lol

# ? Jul 17, 2021 15:18

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT Summer 2021: I didn't paddleboard while Kabul fell, the sea was closed

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