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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:Explain to me like I’m 5 - aren’t vaccines mandatory for babies? why is this wrong for this vaccine, is it because the vaccine is too new, unproven? More importantly, the FDA has not given minors either a EUA like the 12+ EUA (which more or less says "well it won't kill you, and it more or less does what we want it to") or a full authorization like those standard baby vaccines Many mistakes in medical testing have been made by just considering kids as littler adults, rather than performing separate testing and analysis of the results
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Jul 30, 2021 01:33
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What is the point of the FDA if they can’t look at the data and make a formal determination on the safety and efficacy of the vaccine at this point? I have been told that the president of the United States cannot even request a timeline for the decision on pædiatric emergency use authorization, because that would involve ~corrosive political pressure~, but come on. Is there any genuine doubt, in the mind of any person, that the FDA will approve this vaccine? I’m sorry, but you can’t watch a hundred and sixty million citizens receive it, turn around, and say “lol whoops. turns out it was swamp water”. I am under no illusion that the vast majority of the people currently whining about “unapproved experimental vaccine!” won’t immediately move to the next redoubt, but that does not absolve the process of being broken.
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Jul 30, 2021 01:33
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Platystemon posted:What is the point of the FDA if they can’t look at the data and make a formal determination on the safety and efficacy of the vaccine at this point? Kid physiology is really different from adult physiology. It deserves it's own testing. And given that kids can't provide informed consent the way adults can, testing on children only starts when a) it's a kids-only disease (like Batten's Disease) or b) it's been proven safe in adults so they're pretty sure it's not going to do too much damage in a kid.
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Jul 30, 2021 01:42
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Gone Fashing posted:congrats on the job man I have been here for a little over 90 days. So after the performance review being an administrator they want me in.
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Jul 30, 2021 01:42
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compshateme85 posted:Kid physiology is really different from adult physiology. It deserves it's own testing. And given that kids can't provide informed consent the way adults can, testing on children only starts when a) it's a kids-only disease (like Batten's Disease) or b) it's been proven safe in adults so they're pretty sure it's not going to do too much damage in a kid. Perhaps I was unclear. The delay I don’t understand is full approval for adults. I mention the pædiatric process only to demonstrate a contradiction. The FDA is alleged to be so vulnerable to political influence that the White House cannot even ask for a timeline, yet no one talks about how it is simply unthinkable that the FDA will not eventually grant approval for the vaccine in adults. Like it or not, EUA has forced their hand. The solution isn’t to drag feet on formal approval and never grand EUA again. It’s to improve without delay and make a better plan for approval in the face of future emerging disease.
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Jul 30, 2021 01:52
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So I told my wife my concerns and she is saying she thinks it will be one of the safest places to be outdoors because of all the chlorine in the pools killing everything, to which I really didn't have a good answer. Uh, it it safer because everything is drenched in chlorine?
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Jul 30, 2021 01:53
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for sure, thats why no one ever gets giardia from pools
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Jul 30, 2021 01:58
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Blooster posted:So I told my wife my concerns and she is saying she thinks it will be one of the safest places to be outdoors because of all the chlorine in the pools killing everything, to which I really didn't have a good answer. Your kids won't spend every single second in a chlorinated pool. They'll catch it from other kids or adults while waiting in line for rides or in bathrooms or restaurants, etc...
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Jul 30, 2021 01:58
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Blooster posted:Uh, it it safer because everything is drenched in chlorine? Even the CDC’s page on water parks in the pandemic, which is bad in a lot of ways and dates to the Trump administration, still doesn’t make the claim that it’s safe because chlorine. To emphasize, I’m not saying to trust that page. I am pointing out that even in the company of all the hygiene theatre of asking people to wash their hands at a waterpark (???), they still implicitly think that the chlorine excuse is not credible
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Jul 30, 2021 01:59
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Blooster posted:So I told my wife my concerns and she is saying she thinks it will be one of the safest places to be outdoors because of all the chlorine in the pools killing everything, to which I really didn't have a good answer. Yes, absolutely you should drink bleach the entire time you are there, to ensure immunity do not do this
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Jul 30, 2021 02:01
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:Explain to me like I’m 5 - aren’t vaccines mandatory for babies? Technically, no. But in reality? Yes. Every state has quite a large laundry list of required vaccines to attend any public or private schools. Every state requires children to attend school by x age. Also, only half the states don't require homeschooled kids to follow state school vaccination law. So in the end, you have an impossibly tiny amount of kids unvaccinated. For immigrants to gain citizenship they are required to have around 15 vaccines as well. Philthy fucked around with this message at 02:16 on Jul 30, 2021 |
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Jul 30, 2021 02:11
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Fuschia tude posted:Yes, absolutely you should drink bleach the entire time you are there, to ensure immunity do not do this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9psFtbw4Gg
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Jul 30, 2021 02:52
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Blooster posted:So I told my wife my concerns and she is saying she thinks it will be one of the safest places to be outdoors safest place to be outdoors is away from other people. it's airborne is there an uncrowded beach in the area you can take them to instead?
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Jul 30, 2021 02:58
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Blooster posted:So I told my wife my concerns and she is saying she thinks it will be one of the safest places to be outdoors because of all the chlorine in the pools killing everything, to which I really didn't have a good answer. It’s been my understanding that outdoor transmission is incredibly rare. That understanding dates all the way back to last April when a German paper suggested it was almost impossible for it to spread through casual, outdoor interactions. For more recent data this NYT article puts it at around a tenth of a percent. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/11/briefing/outdoor-covid-transmission-cdc-number.html Keep in mind that although Sturgis was a super-spreader event due to the R0 rates, the total cases among attendees were in the low hundreds out of an estimate 460,000. And that was before vaccines were rolled out. That’s definitely not zero, and it’s obviously safer to not go, but to help ease your mind, if they do go, they’re far more likely to not get it than the other way around.
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Jul 30, 2021 03:00
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Blooster posted:So I told my wife my concerns and she is saying she thinks it will be one of the safest places to be outdoors because of all the chlorine in the pools killing everything, to which I really didn't have a good answer.  I dunno. Your wife sounds like she has her mind made up. Good luck man.
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Jul 30, 2021 03:03
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https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/565495-covid-19-news-is-confusing-but-vaccination-is-still-the-answerFuschia tude posted:Yes, absolutely you should drink bleach the entire time you are there, to ensure immunity do not do this You joke but the former and future President of the United States suggested this, and so maybe it's something we should consider???
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Jul 30, 2021 03:07
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Blooster posted:So I told my wife my concerns and she is saying she thinks it will be one of the safest places to be outdoors because of all the chlorine in the pools killing everything, to which I really didn't have a good answer.
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Jul 30, 2021 03:15
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Nathen Explosion is talking a lot of sense.
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Jul 30, 2021 03:30
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Philthy posted:Technically, no. But in reality? Yes. Every state has quite a large laundry list of required vaccines to attend any public or private schools. Every state requires children to attend school by x age. Also, only half the states don't require homeschooled kids to follow state school vaccination law. So in the end, you have an impossibly tiny amount of kids unvaccinated. More than you would think. Even outside of the homeschooler angle, many states used to allow for "religious exemptions" but have now shifted a lot of them to "moral exemptions" because of court cases in a number of those states. So you have states like Oregon with only a 65% childhood vaccination rate in 2020 and some in the south with 70-80%. And in those states, the exemption lets kids even go to public schools. Here's some CDC data from a few years ago that has almost certainly gotten worse: https://www.americashealthrankings.org/explore/annual/measure/Immunize_b/state/TN There's a lot of unvaccinated stupid in America that will just keep growing.
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Jul 30, 2021 03:32
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https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1420898940854079488?s=20
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Jul 30, 2021 03:52
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Fine Masks forever, let's go
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Jul 30, 2021 04:31
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:Fine I miss the days when everyone in the store was masked. I felt a lot more comfortable back then… Today an unmasked guy sneezed right behind me and I low key freaked out about it. I’m sick of people’s selfishness and stupidity. Just wear the drat mask.
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Jul 30, 2021 04:47
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Blooster posted:Yes, though my 3 year old will probably rip them off and I don't know how masks would really work in a swimming pool. I love swimming too. Can you find some other way for them to do it? Ask a neighbor to use their pool while they're out of town, rent an airbnb that has a pool for a night? Can you scope out a swimmable lake/stream/ocean at an off time to make sure it's really uncrowded, then bring them back the next day at that time? Anne Whateley fucked around with this message at 05:05 on Jul 30, 2021 |
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Jul 30, 2021 05:01
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i like nice words
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Los Angeles Schools requiring testing no matter their vaccination status, weekly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ham_4Lkryas OgNar fucked around with this message at 05:05 on Jul 30, 2021 |
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Jul 30, 2021 05:03
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Platystemon posted:Perhaps I was unclear. For one thing it's not entirely unthinkable that all vaccines will be formally approved. Pfizer and Moderna? Oh yeah almost definitely. But I could see a very very slim chance J&J runs into issues. Sure it's a good vaccine and it works, but if Pfizer and Moderna get approved first and you're assuming a US with basically unlimited supply of those then, that somewhat lower efficacy and (rare or not) blood clot adverse events start to bring up questions of "Whats the point of approval when those work better?". I guess they could make a case because it's single shot but, they'd have to make it. Or maybe with the full approval, the longer term data will show one vaccine is better or safer for certain age groups and another is better for others and they're licensed accordingly. Secondly, the approval process couldn't even start until like, May or June because Pfizer/Moderna didn't submit their application and start submitting the required data until then. Regulatory agencies can't start approving poo poo until companies send them the data they need, and it's an absolutely insane amount of data and documentation. The point of the EUA is "Holy poo poo it's an emergency and we need everything we can right now. A full approval is deciding what will be used for the indeterminate future. There's more scrutiny on manufacturing practices, longer term safety data is analyzed, and the risk/benefit calculation is different because unlike an EUA (which is an emergency process and designed to be temporary), this is approval should hold up years and years from now including whenever this eventually won't be a crisis. Like you think this is dragging their feet? This is going to be the fastest approved vaccine in US history. The six month priority approval timeframe would put this at November at the absolute latest but nothing ever takes the full timeframe even in normal times and this is the biggest priority the FDA has ever had. I'd be surprised if full approval didn't come by like, sometime in September at the latest. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 05:27 on Jul 30, 2021 |
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Jul 30, 2021 05:11
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Anne Whateley posted:This loving sucks but you're making the right call. While the original was less likely to transmit outdoors (as the post above says), Delta is way way more contagious -- plus the kids are going to be all up on each other because that's what you do at a water park. Tons of unvaccinated people not wearing masks a foot apart with Delta everywhere is an absolute recipe for catching it. No BS I just showed her your post and now she's keeping them home. frh fucked around with this message at 05:49 on Jul 30, 2021 |
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Jul 30, 2021 05:26
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Like you think this is dragging their feet? This is going to be the fastest approved vaccine in US history. You’re damning with faint praise here. They could approve in July of 2023 and that would still be true. Is there a need for an intermediate level of review and authorization? Mandating the use of emergency use pharmaceuticals in the general population isn’t great, but we have a much better understanding of the vaccines now than we did in November when the applications for EUA were submitted.
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Jul 30, 2021 05:29
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Platystemon posted:You’re damning with faint praise here. They could approve in July of 2023 and that would still be true. Less than two years from "This is a disease" to "Here's a fully approved vaccine"? A max six months from formal submission to approval? More likely 3-4? That's pretty loving impressive considering the insane amount of data to review (again, it's not just the safety data. It's everything from manufacturing to the labelling, etc...) and the amount of scrutiny the FDA tends to take. I mean what would an intermediate level of authorization even look like and what would be the point? I doubt it would convince the hesitant because it would still be "not fully approved yet" and if it's not a full approval then it would still be difficult to make it legally enforceable any more than the EUA would be. I'm not really sure that would help. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 06:06 on Jul 30, 2021 |
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Jul 30, 2021 05:45
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Blooster posted:No BS I just showed her your post and now she's keeping them home.
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Jul 30, 2021 05:55
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It doesn't seem terribly surprising to me that Delta would be transmissible by/amongst vaccinated people. Given that it seems to produce >1000x as much virus as the original strain, then viral load would have to be reduced quite a bit by vaccination to render breakthrough cases non-infectious. Also, I utterly hate that all these deniers are saying stuff like "science says masks don't work." "Science" now just means "in my dipshit opinion," Zugzwang fucked around with this message at 06:34 on Jul 30, 2021 |
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Jul 30, 2021 06:10
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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354?s=21
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Jul 30, 2021 06:24
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Come on, Grey Lady. You had all those hours to look over twenty‐five slides and that’s the best you could do? It’s not spread by vaccinated people as easily as the unvaccinated. It is, perhaps, spread by vaccine breakthrough cases as easily as the unvaccinated. You first have to get a vaccine breakthrough, which while it happens rather more than we’d like, is a distinct minority. The message is not that this is Marek’s disease, it’s that anyone who has the sniffles should stay the gently caress out of public and get tested even if vaccinated. Places of business and education should bring back surveillance testing, even for the vaccinated.
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Jul 30, 2021 06:31
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So that "as infectious as chickenpox" figure must be among the unvaccinated? Still, that's...something. Chickenpox is (according to the all-knowing wikipedia) behind only measles in terms of infectiousness.
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Jul 30, 2021 06:37
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Well here’s the relevant slide: There’s an Ouroboros going on here where the Grey Lady is citing the CDC document that lifts and modifies a chart from the Grey Lady. All those diseases represented as nice clean points ought to be clouds at least as large as SARS‐CoV‐2’s. With the possible exception of influenza, we don’t understand the epidemiology of them any better. They’ve been driven out of sight and out of mind by interventions, pharmaceutical and otherwise, and that makes it hard to assign good numbers to them. I don’t know what’s going on with the x‐axis label saying “sick person”. Surely it’s any infection, including asymptomatic carriers? But once again, that’s the hand of the Times.
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Jul 30, 2021 07:01
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The "sick person" axis would be R0, with the caveat that R0 changes by vaccination status, etc. It's both worrisome and odd that the infectiousness for Delta seems to keep getting adjusted upwards every time I see a new estimate. First it was ~2x as infectious as wild type, then it rivaled smallpox, now it's chickenpox. Are we just getting better data? Then again, the charts that Snowglobe of Doom has been posting clearly indicate that the CDC has no loving clue how to model this thing. "There will be ehhhh somewhere between 10,000 and 5,000,000 new cases this week in the US, yeah that looks about right."
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Jul 30, 2021 07:09
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Lot of doom and gloom around here so I thought I'd break things up with some good news. My hometown of NYC just reported a 7-day average of 3 covid deaths. That's out of 8,419,000 new yorkers! Excellent!
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Jul 30, 2021 07:15
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Avian Pneumonia posted:Lot of doom and gloom around here so I thought I'd break things up with some good news. Nice username
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Jul 30, 2021 07:18
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Quick statistics updates on a national level from today's NYtimes: About 1.5 nyc subway cars (316 people) filled of people died yesterday. That's 316 deaths out of more than 328,200,000 Americans. The overwhelming majority of whom were morbidly-obese diabetic octogenarians who had one foot out the door and little quality of life to begin with. Many - but not all - of them already bedbound and with terminal illnesses. As a professional who has zipped many people into thick orange bodybags and wheeled them into tractor trailers I feel encouraged and happy.
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Jul 30, 2021 07:29
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Yeah I'm gonna need a huge loving citation on that. Even if it's true (it's not), it's really lovely to suggest that old people, fat people, etc., have no quality of life and who gives a poo poo if they die. People have been edging in that direction the whole pandemic ("don't worry, it only affects people with preexisting conditions [and that's not us and they don't matter]"), but you sure did come out and say it. It's good that the death toll is as low as it is. Be happy about that. But all of those people, even if they were 80 or fat or had asthma, mattered and were loved and died sooner than they would have otherwise. And people who are equally vulnerable are reading your post.
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Jul 30, 2021 07:38
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Zugzwang posted:The "sick person" axis would be R0, with the caveat that R0 changes by vaccination status, etc. The future modelling basically comes down to the fact that statistical models are pretty good at determining the current state of things, but really bad at determining future state. This is especially true for systems with multiple unknown variables where even the measurables have a high degree of uncertainty, and even more so in exponential systems where small variations in estimated values can have wildly differing effects on future outcomes. When it comes to estimating R0 directly, the most straightforward way is to simply look at growth rate over time in an unmitigated population but there is the additional problem that this doesn't depend on R0 alone, it also depends on the serial interval or generation time (the specific relation is r = (1-R0)/τ I believe) which also may be different with delta, so you are again trying to estimate multiple variables with incomplete data and high uncertainty. It seems like a relatively simple thing but even with full surveillance testing there are a ton of unknowns. e: also good luck finding an actual "unmitigated population" at this point so you need to guess how much mitigations, prior infections, etc impact your attempts to measure true R0 TheSlutPit fucked around with this message at 07:57 on Jul 30, 2021 |
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Jul 30, 2021 07:53
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