(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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what seems more likely is the spratlys heating up and a bunch of chinese "coast guard" vessels getting shot up by the vietnamese or filipinos
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Aug 1, 2021 12:39
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I get that clancychat is annoying but I think its very healthy to create an environment where someone coming in to say "wait, could the US really lose?" is met with a resounding "lol duh." Dismantling the myth of American strategic invincibility is an important step in opening up a world where people don't act like that's true anymore, which is maybe a path to radicalizing people to a belief that better things are in fact possible if these psychotic hawks are laughed out of the conversation.
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Aug 1, 2021 13:00
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shrike82 posted:what seems more likely is the spratlys heating up and a bunch of chinese "coast guard" vessels getting shot up by the vietnamese or filipinos shut up dork
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Aug 1, 2021 13:03
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GoLambo posted:I get that clancychat is annoying but I think its very healthy to create an environment where someone coming in to say "wait, could the US really lose?" is met with a resounding "lol duh." Dismantling the myth of American strategic invincibility is an important step in opening up a world where people don't act like that's true anymore, which is maybe a path to radicalizing people to a belief that better things are in fact possible if these psychotic hawks are laughed out of the conversation. posting is praxis
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Aug 1, 2021 13:03
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shrike82 posted:posting is praxis If it turns out posting like yours was essential to the wide discrediting the opposition I have to admit I'm going to be so red.
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Aug 1, 2021 13:14
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shrike82 posted:jerking off about the chinese invading taiwan and blowing up an american carrier fleet is some weird mirror tom clancy poo poo shrike82 posted:what seems more likely is the spratlys heating up and a bunch of chinese "coast guard" vessels getting shot up by the vietnamese or filipinos 
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Aug 1, 2021 13:24
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shrike82 posted:what seems more likely is the spratlys heating up and a bunch of chinese "coast guard" vessels getting shot up by the vietnamese or filipinos https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guang_Da_Xing_No._28_incident
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Aug 1, 2021 13:41
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please don't make me tap the 'War Games are loving fake and every outcome is made useless with the fact that the government puts insane restrictions on the enemy team, and extrapolating any information from them is like trying to block out a basketball game based on the real life version of the 'Kanye plays basketball with disabled kids, wins 100-2' meme.' sign.
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Aug 1, 2021 15:02
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shrike82 posted:jerking off about the chinese invading taiwan and blowing up an american carrier fleet is some weird mirror tom clancy poo poo gently caress off
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Aug 1, 2021 15:14
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Ardennes posted:It has been a bit but it used to be that pretty much the left-wing factions always get trash canned because they almost always get ganged up on by Germany and the Entente. Maybe the Russia rework helped it out, but the Left-Kuomintang also to be nearly unplayable and you would have to use the cheesiest tactics possible to survive. The ideological system is a holdover from Hoi2 darkest hour. The game used a slider system to determine a nation's political position. three leftwing ideologies in the base game were "stalinism" "Leninism" and "left wing radical". In kaiserreich these ideologies were converted to "totalism" "syndicalism" and "radical socialist" respectively. So kaiserrichs ideology system is a bit arbitrary due to it being a holdover from Hoi2. That being said the 9 ideology system looks way more nuanced in comparison to base Hoi4s four ideology system.
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Aug 1, 2021 15:44
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yeah, i was listening to the radio war nerd episodes about the supersonic bomber xb-70, soviet/us cold war plans and policy of "controlled" escalation and how icbms made this cool jet that had all this tech and money invested in it no longer useful for its purpose and thinking about all the times that someone would say offhandedly about how the US carrier groups were mostly useless in a modern conflict with china. was wondering if there was more to it than just that.
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Aug 1, 2021 16:14
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China-U.S. war over Taiwan is a stupid non-starter of a scenario. Who instigated it? Insane desperate flailing U.S. crumbling empire risks nuclear conflagration in a doomed war? Insane stereotypical racist caricature of PRC launches a preemptive amphibious invasion? Insane suicidal Taiwan declares independence and risks invasion and total destruction for what- not getting admitted into the U.N., an organization where the PRC is a permanent Security Council member and can block anything that might potentially be useful to Taiwan? Can anyone even imagine a politically viable scenario leading to war with Taiwan that doesn’t require stock techno-thriller villains?
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Aug 1, 2021 16:57
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Raskolnikov38 posted:let us all enjoy the most cathartic moment in death of stalin
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Aug 1, 2021 17:14
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Maximo Roboto posted:China-U.S. war over Taiwan is a stupid non-starter of a scenario. Who instigated it? Insane desperate flailing U.S. crumbling empire risks nuclear conflagration in a doomed war? Insane stereotypical racist caricature of PRC launches a preemptive amphibious invasion? Insane suicidal Taiwan declares independence and risks invasion and total destruction for what- not getting admitted into the U.N., an organization where the PRC is a permanent Security Council member and can block anything that might potentially be useful to Taiwan? I get where you're coming from and all but lol that you can say with a straight face in the same breath that it's simultaneously a racist caricature that the PRC would start hostilities, and also that Taiwan, a completely independent country in every meaningful way except for official political recognition, would be risking invasion and "total destruction" by stating that reality out loud.
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Aug 1, 2021 17:15
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Truth to be told, the whole situation is built on arbitrary semi-legal legalisms. Taiwan or the U.S. disrupting the Three No’s or whatever current policy would provide a legalistic justification for the PRC to respond with force, not that the U.N. would be okay with it but not that the U.N. is worth a drat especially in this situation. But 1) what benefit is there to Taiwan to declare independence other than out of suicidal pride? It’s not like they’d be getting any different diplomatic benefits. And on the flip side, would the PRC really respond to that pointless exercise with force, because they’re legally almost “bound to” because they’re entitled to if Taiwan breaks that policy? Would China really want to upset global stability by launching a preemptive war against ethnic Han? What happened when two advanced nations with big bourgeois middle class populations get into a war with each other? Is this the moment when the China becomes global hegemon, by launching a needless aggressive war at the cost of untold lives and treasure? No one has thought this scenario through beyond the Tom Clancy stuff.
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Aug 1, 2021 17:23
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Maximo Roboto posted:China-U.S. war over Taiwan is a stupid non-starter of a scenario. Who instigated it? Insane desperate flailing U.S. crumbling empire risks nuclear conflagration in a doomed war? Insane stereotypical racist caricature of PRC launches a preemptive amphibious invasion? Insane suicidal Taiwan declares independence and risks invasion and total destruction for what- not getting admitted into the U.N., an organization where the PRC is a permanent Security Council member and can block anything that might potentially be useful to Taiwan? 
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Aug 1, 2021 17:29
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Maximo Roboto posted:Truth to be told, the whole situation is built on arbitrary semi-legal legalisms. Taiwan or the U.S. disrupting the Three No’s or whatever current policy would provide a legalistic justification for the PRC to respond with force, not that the U.N. would be okay with it but not that the U.N. is worth a drat especially in this situation. But 1) what benefit is there to Taiwan to declare independence other than out of suicidal pride? It’s not like they’d be getting any different diplomatic benefits. For sure there's very little point to Taiwan officially declaring independence and doing so would basically be a huge gamble quite possibly ending in either WW3 or Taiwan just getting taken over and occupied, probably in an entirely less than kind manner. China has apparently stated that Taiwan declaring independence would mean war; whether they'd follow through, who knows. If Taiwan feels that there's no other choice but to do so or eventually be taken over, they might do it anyway. But a bit silly to claim that no one has considered these scenarios, considering there's a fuckton of people who are very much thinking about all the variable there, even if laypeople like to think of the Tom Clancy fighting part, especially in the English speaking world, since mostly much of the social and political aspects are well beyond the ken of most people in the west.
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Aug 1, 2021 17:33
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LimburgLimbo posted:I get where you're coming from and all but lol that you can say with a straight face in the same breath that it's simultaneously a racist caricature that the PRC would start hostilities, and also that Taiwan, a completely independent country in every meaningful way except for official political recognition, would be risking invasion and "total destruction" by stating that reality out loud. could you explain a little more what made you lol about that?
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Aug 1, 2021 17:37
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In the end instead of Tom Clancy-esque stuff it's probably much more likely that actual combat breaks out because something really dumb happens like someone in the military on one side or the other who drank too much of their respective coolaid shoots up a boat and it spirals out of control from there.
LimburgLimbo has issued a correction as of 17:46 on Aug 1, 2021 |
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Aug 1, 2021 17:38
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mawarannahr posted:could you explain a little more what made you lol about that? "It's racist to say the PRC would attack Taiwan, but Taiwan would be stupid to openly state reality because they'd be attacked by the PRC" You can indeed potentially sincerely have both these thoughts in your mind because there are indeed racist yellow-peril portrayals of the PRC as bent on global domination, and at the same time some people very sincerely believe that Taiwan stating officially the de facto reality of their political independence would be sufficient casus belli for the PRC to start a war that would kill millions of innocent people, but consider the implications there.
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Aug 1, 2021 17:44
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Maximo Roboto posted:China-U.S. war over Taiwan is a stupid non-starter of a scenario. Who instigated it? Insane desperate flailing U.S. crumbling empire risks nuclear conflagration in a doomed war? Insane stereotypical racist caricature of PRC launches a preemptive amphibious invasion? Insane suicidal Taiwan declares independence and risks invasion and total destruction for what- not getting admitted into the U.N., an organization where the PRC is a permanent Security Council member and can block anything that might potentially be useful to Taiwan? Imagine all of Europe suicide charging each other over some crown prince who no one really liked anyway.
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Aug 1, 2021 17:55
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LimburgLimbo posted:But a bit silly to claim that no one has considered these scenarios, considering there's a fuckton of people who are very much thinking about all the variable there, even if laypeople like to think of the Tom Clancy fighting part, especially in the English speaking world, since mostly much of the social and political aspects are well beyond the ken of most people in the west. I’m sure the people who actually make policy consider it all the time, unlike the people fighting over it online. I haven’t seen the latter set sketch out a reasonable political situation where any aid would actually intentionally pursue war. Truth be told, I think both Xi and Tsai are not pursuing anything substantially different from past policy, it’s amped up brinksmanship but no one wants to end the status quo yet. Maximo Roboto has issued a correction as of 17:58 on Aug 1, 2021 |
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Aug 1, 2021 17:55
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genericnick posted:Imagine all of Europe suicide charging each other over some crown prince who no one really liked anyway. Imagine Bush invading Iran in 2005
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Aug 1, 2021 17:56
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There's also the possibility that something major happens in China that threatens the party, invading and conquering Taiwan would suddenly become necessary as a way to shore legitimacy and reaffirm the support of the nationalists Like it's not outlandish that it can happen but either the US or China need to destabilize fairly heavily for it to actually happen.
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Aug 1, 2021 19:41
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i think it needs to be pointed out that china taking military action against taiwan because of an unilateral declaration of independence and china just invading one day for no particular reason are two wildly different scenarios
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Aug 1, 2021 19:47
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https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1421899510540906503?s=20 https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1421906214665953285?s=20 Michael McFail
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Aug 1, 2021 21:46
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lol couldn't even avoid russophobia in his apology, these people's hate is so deep
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Aug 1, 2021 23:44
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If you guys don't quote Shrike, I don't have to read his post.
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Aug 2, 2021 00:18
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stephenthinkpad posted:If you guys don't quote Shrike, I don't have to read his post. Coward.
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Aug 2, 2021 00:27
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Also, the PRC would just have to cut trade with Taiwan and at worse blockade it to win any conflict. There is no way the US is going to run a PLAN blockade and everyone involved knows that. Also, Tsai's approval rating has taken continual hits and the reputation of the pan-green coalition has been significantly more tarnished after a serious of poor decisions. As said before (dozens of times), the most likely scenario is just the PRC just slowly continues integrates Taiwan economically until some type of compromise is reached. Also, Taiwan's covid response initially worked because they just shut down flights to everywhere, some of it have been helped by Taiwan's ambiguous status. The issue is when they opened flights up without precautions before vaccinating the population. Taiwan is # 1! ....... at owning themselves Ardennes has issued a correction as of 00:40 on Aug 2, 2021 |
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Aug 2, 2021 00:28
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the notion of gradual integration doesn't work when younger taiwanese are increasingly anti-PRC like i said, it's amusing to see taiwanese and hong konger views on china by age group being the inverse of the West.
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Aug 2, 2021 00:30
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:i went and saw this with my dad and he came out thinking khrushchev was alright. but he's kind of a nerdy guy who is into business and likes the image of a guy who is crafty enough to get to the top. capitalist roader for sure. Get your dad into Deng
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Aug 2, 2021 00:33
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Maximo Roboto posted:China-U.S. war over Taiwan is a stupid non-starter of a scenario. Who instigated it? Insane desperate flailing U.S. crumbling empire risks nuclear conflagration in a doomed war? Insane stereotypical racist caricature of PRC launches a preemptive amphibious invasion? Insane suicidal Taiwan declares independence and risks invasion and total destruction for what- not getting admitted into the U.N., an organization where the PRC is a permanent Security Council member and can block anything that might potentially be useful to Taiwan? US is not going to send carriers to stop mainland reunify Taiwan (if and when that happen). They are going to send some spy planes and ships and also airlifting the American citizens out. Why do you think US want TSMC move their production out of Taiwan island? The real finance and trade war between US and China will start after the the Taiwan war. What China has been working on is getting to a defensive position to lessen the demand by the US sanctions. I also disagree on "nobody is stupid enough to declare independence". Mainland doesn't draw the redline at "declaring independence". Even today running an independent referendum will be constituted crossing the red line. In the future the red line will be drawn closer and closer to DPP's political operation space. Maybe large scale grade school history textbook revision will be considered "crossing the red line", just to give you a gray area example.
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Aug 2, 2021 00:41
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shrike82 posted:the notion of gradual integration doesn't work when younger taiwanese are increasingly anti-PRC they'll be brought around 
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Aug 2, 2021 00:49
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Dreddout posted:Get your dad into Deng he worked in HK a bit in the 80s and the PRC was opening up but it might have well been mordor to westerners at the time. he worked with a PRC businessman and they'd fly into west germany, and he'd sail through customs, but the german cops would grab that dude and take him into a room for an hour or two. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot5-YBPICBY BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 01:03 on Aug 2, 2021 |
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Aug 2, 2021 00:54
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stephenthinkpad posted:The real finance and trade war between US and China will start after the the Taiwan war. What China has been working on is getting to a defensive position to lessen the demand by the US sanctions. Taiwan is still not as important as the US getting cheap manufactured products from the mainland. Even as wages have increased, no one has the economy of scale that the PRC has and as COVID has shown the US economy is still extremely reliant on Chinese imports. The US would actually have to rebuilt its economy from the ground up for that to happen, and just look at the flimsy infrastructure bill that is trying to get out of congress. Also, the PRC arbitrarily changing the "red line" seems counter-productive and rather pointless if the eventual trend is for China to use its economic weight to force its will. The situation in HK was time sensitive and needed to be delt with, but at this point the PRC can play the waiting game and Tsai has wasted much of the goodwill she had built up.
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Aug 2, 2021 01:06
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genericnick posted:Imagine all of Europe suicide charging each other over some crown prince who no one really liked anyway.
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Aug 2, 2021 01:48
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if you want to make a tortured analogy to WW1, the US did very well out of it. i don't see China getting drawn into some Asian conflict (NK/SK, India/Pakistan, Taiwan, or with chunks of SE Asia) as some big own on the US
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Aug 2, 2021 02:02
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Lostconfused posted:It was a very good excuse for something everyone already planned to do anyway. If it wasn’t Franz Joseph, it would have been something else, not only was everything preparing for a war but Austria-Serbian relations were already getting worse. The situation right now is guided primarily economic and trade.
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Aug 2, 2021 02:24
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1421899510540906503?s=20 lol that the lesson was not to change your bullshit perspective but just not to hang it out for all to see
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Aug 2, 2021 03:39
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