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Elea
Oct 10, 2012

blight rhino posted:

I've read a ton of this thread, haven't really touched C-SPAM.

I thought someone showed a tweet, or graph, or some poo poo about there is a 20% chance to have a breakthrough infection? Most likely, I went and got my numbers and posts all mixed up .. everything I've looked online at says it's more like a 1% chance.

did i hallucinate?

Also, it seems like if they do develop a nasal spray, that'd help out a lot. Maybe not with the anti-vax people, but at least a stronger defense with people willing to get vax'd (more, or finally)

It's definitely not 1 percent post exposure. There are a lot of bad statistics going around comparing the entire vaccinated population versus cases. It's reminiscent of stats showing the entire population versus those who've died and saying that's covid's death rate.

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Computer Serf
May 14, 2005
Buglord

blight rhino posted:

I've read a ton of this thread, haven't really touched C-SPAM.

I thought someone showed a tweet, or graph, or some poo poo about there is a 20% chance to have a breakthrough infection? Most likely, I went and got my numbers and posts all mixed up .. everything I've looked online at says it's more like a 1% chance.

did i hallucinate?

Also, it seems like if they do develop a nasal spray, that'd help out a lot. Maybe not with the anti-vax people, but at least a stronger defense with people willing to get vax'd (more, or finally)

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/01/health/uk-scientists-covid-variant-beat-vaccines-intl/index.html

https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/08/03/21/covid-lambda-variant-shows-vaccine-resistance-in-lab

the question is how long will the virus bounce around before it’s contained, and how many mutations are possible that evade immunity developed from early vaccines and early infections.

it’s potentially slower than the common flu strains in escaping immunity, but uh what does that mean if exposure and mild cases are causing long covid or other organ damage

Lord Stimperor
Jun 13, 2018

I'm a lovable meme.

Inept posted:

renter acknowledges that in the case of a cancer diagnosis, landlord shall reserve the right to end the lease due to expected inability to pay owed rent. any cancer diagnosis must be provided within 24 hours to landlord

What are u going to do if I die unexpectedly, kill me

blight rhino
Feb 11, 2014

EXQUISITE LURKER RHINO


Nap Ghost

Elea posted:

It's definitely not 1 percent post exposure. There are a lot of bad statistics going around comparing the entire vaccinated population versus cases. It's reminiscent of stats showing the entire population versus those who've died and saying that's covid's death rate.

Computer Serf posted:

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/01/health/uk-scientists-covid-variant-beat-vaccines-intl/index.html

https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/08/03/21/covid-lambda-variant-shows-vaccine-resistance-in-lab

the question is how long will the virus bounce around before it’s contained, and how many mutations are possible that evade immunity developed from early vaccines and early infections.

it’s potentially slower than the common flu strains in escaping immunity, but uh what does that mean if exposure and mild cases are causing long covid or other organ damage

thanks, folks. I've got acquaintances, and some right-wing extended family, that are refusing the science. Just trying to get all the facts.



And, jesus, they've skipped to lambda? That's a new variant that hasn't hit the US, yet? Did I read that right?

blight rhino fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Aug 3, 2021

stab
Feb 12, 2003

To you from failing hands we throw the torch, be yours to hold it high

blight rhino posted:

thanks, folks. I've got acquaintances, and some right-wing extended family, that are refusing the science. Just trying to get all the facts.



And, jesus, they've skipped to lambda? That's a new variant that hasn't hit the US, yet? Did I read that right?

It's the dominant strain of Peru, yes. Looks to be a bit weaker than Delta fwiw.

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Computer Serf posted:

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/01/health/uk-scientists-covid-variant-beat-vaccines-intl/index.html

https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/08/03/21/covid-lambda-variant-shows-vaccine-resistance-in-lab

the question is how long will the virus bounce around before it’s contained, and how many mutations are possible that evade immunity developed from early vaccines and early infections.

it’s potentially slower than the common flu strains in escaping immunity, but uh what does that mean if exposure and mild cases are causing long covid or other organ damage

As concerning as Lambda and other vaccine resistant strains are, the silver-lining with Delta is that it's so contagious that it becomes the dominant strain in an infected population and our vaccines are still effective against it.

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

blight rhino posted:


Also, it seems like if they do develop a nasal spray, that'd help out a lot. Maybe not with the anti-vax people, but at least a stronger defense with people willing to get vax'd (more, or finally)

I read some reports about nasal vaccines being developed but nothing has been released yet to my knowledge. Some version in Spain and some Indian company working on them and promising a lot

NinpoEspiritoSanto
Oct 22, 2013




blight rhino posted:

thanks, folks. I've got acquaintances, and some right-wing extended family, that are refusing the science. Just trying to get all the facts.



And, jesus, they've skipped to lambda? That's a new variant that hasn't hit the US, yet? Did I read that right?

Nothing was skipped, there have been that many observed mutations but lambda is the next "variant of interest" following delta.

John_A_Tallon
Nov 22, 2000

Oh my! Check out that mitre!

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

I read some reports about nasal vaccines being developed but nothing has been released yet to my knowledge. Some version in Spain and some Indian company working on them and promising a lot

Cuba is working on one too

ben shapino
Nov 22, 2020

Lambda balls

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

John_A_Tallon posted:

Cuba is working on one too

Cuba says a lot of things

Mons Hubris
Aug 29, 2004

fanci flup :)


DickParasite posted:

As concerning as Lambda and other vaccine resistant strains are, the silver-lining with Delta is that it's so contagious that it becomes the dominant strain in an infected population and our vaccines are still effective against it.

Can you not get both at the same time?

King Vidiot
Feb 17, 2007

You think you can take me at Satan's Hollow? Go 'head on!
If there's ever a nasal vaccine I want to get a Bane mask and just have that poo poo pumping into my nose and mouth constantly.

Kirk Vikernes
Apr 26, 2004

Count Goatnackh

Mons Hubris posted:

Can you not get both at the same time?

Make me air tight, daddy covid

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Mons Hubris posted:

Can you not get both at the same time?

Disclaimer: I'm not a virologist. If it's technically true that you can get both at the same time, it's irrelevant as long as the Delta variant remains significantly dominant. If a population is exposed to both variants, the Delta variant will crowd out the Lambda variant.

Another concern would be if exposure to the Delta variant (or others) fails to confer resistance to the Lambda variant. I haven't seen any studies on that yet.

As always: mask up and get your vaccines and stay away from crowds.

Stink Billyums
Jul 7, 2006

MAGNUM
https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1422699807228022788

dexter actually has a phd in molecular biology so I can see why he'd kick a guy out of the band over it

EL BROMANCE
Jun 10, 2006

COWABUNGA DUDES!
🥷🐢😬



And didn’t the slight connection to GBS (the syndrome) only come out within the last few weeks so therefore using that as an excuse feels like grasping at straws given he’s been eligible to have it for months.

Bring back Ron Welty.

stab
Feb 12, 2003

To you from failing hands we throw the torch, be yours to hold it high

Stink Billyums posted:

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1422699807228022788

dexter actually has a phd in molecular biology so I can see why he'd kick a guy out of the band over it

Not pretty fly for an unvaxxed guy

Hellblazer187
Oct 12, 2003

Zugzwang posted:

PCR tests are the most sensitive ones of all and are fairly unlikely to be negative two weeks after symptom onset, if indeed you had covid. Most of the false negatives come in the first week post-infection, before your body has had a chance to make enough virus. The delta variant has such a high viral load though that the false negative window is compressed.

Still, even at two weeks, the PCR false negative rate isn't zero (note that the rate of false results is basically never *zero* for anything). If you wanted to get an antibody test, you'd likely need to wait until something like 3 weeks post-symptom onset to be reasonably sure that your results are correct, or 4 weeks if you want to be really conservative.

I might not have been clear, I got the PCR test on roughly day 4 of having symptoms.

Ugly In The Morning posted:

Also if you’re vaccinated you’ll come up positive on some antibody tests so it’s not really useful.

I am not, it's not as easy to get one where I live (outside of the US).

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

DickParasite posted:

As concerning as Lambda and other vaccine resistant strains are, the silver-lining with Delta is that it's so contagious that it becomes the dominant strain in an infected population and our vaccines are still effective against it.
The main international database for SARS-CoV-2 genomes, GISAID, lists extensive metadata for each genome it has, including the genome's variant and spike mutations. There are delta genomes in there that also carry the vaccine-evading mutations, but so far, not terribly many compared to vanilla delta. It really might be that delta is so infectious and widespread already, delta++ isn't able to out-compete it. But we'll see :buddy:

Hellblazer187 posted:

I might not have been clear, I got the PCR test on roughly day 4 of having symptoms.
Ok, that's definitely not enough time to be out of the false negative window. They’re less common after 4 days of symptoms but not unheard of.

Zugzwang fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Aug 4, 2021

Stink Billyums
Jul 7, 2006

MAGNUM

stab posted:

Not pretty fly for an unvaxxed guy

the chuds aren't alright

Good soup!
Nov 2, 2010

Stink Billyums posted:

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1422699807228022788

dexter actually has a phd in molecular biology so I can see why he'd kick a guy out of the band over it

🎵Gotta keep em vaccinated

Scarodactyl
Oct 22, 2015


Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

The guy who wrote this book participated in an experiment doing that for a month, it wrecked his health (breathing only through mouth)
https://m.barnesandnoble.com/w/breath-james-nestor/1134986035

Basically mouth breathers are dumber, weaker, and get more sick because your lungs are not meant to receive air like that, there’s all sorts of filters in the nasal airways

It’s an interesting book, it also possibly links poor breathing technique to anxiety attacks/Oxygen-CO2 balance (which is why slow breathing seems to help anxiety attacks, too much oxygen can be bad)
This book has some serious bs vibes to me. Guy is a journalist, not qualified to assess health research and has an interest in selling books.

AHH F/UGH
May 25, 2002

I present to you the absolute worst liberal echo chamber-ignorant op-ed of the past... week?

https://twitter.com/undarkmag/status/1410531878038278146?s=20

AHH F/UGH
May 25, 2002

Wow!!!! These people whose political ethos is to try and get LESS help from the government and more and more often are electing people who isolate them further, who actively encourage anti-science conspiracies and believe anything they read on a facebook group as gospel??? You remember them?

They're the same as black people, you see!!!!!! It's the government's fault!!! Rushed vaccine!!! Unprecedented speed!!!!

Shayna Baszler
Oct 24, 2001

i'll always take care of you
Muldoon
i'm just a sucker without a vaccine

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

Stink Billyums posted:

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1422699807228022788

dexter actually has a phd in molecular biology so I can see why he'd kick a guy out of the band over it

This is a really lovely headline. He's choosing not to tour with them because he can't get vaxxed for a valid medical reason; he has had Guillain Barre Syndrome since childhood.

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

Stink Billyums posted:

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1422699807228022788

dexter actually has a phd in molecular biology so I can see why he'd kick a guy out of the band over it

Dexter owns, I didn't know he had a phd



Scarodactyl posted:

This book has some serious bs vibes to me. Guy is a journalist, not qualified to assess health research and has an interest in selling books.

Could be

He offers the breathing techniques on his page if you want to try, if you find any takedowns of his book I'd be interested

https://www.mrjamesnestor.com/breath-vids

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Shayna Baszler posted:

i'm just a sucker without a vaccine

:golfclap:

7of7
Jul 1, 2008

Mons Hubris posted:

Can you not get both at the same time?

It's not directly related to getting multiple known variants at the same time from multiple other people but I thought it was interesting that technically nobody only has one variant.

As I understand it when they sequence the viral RNA from someone they aren't just taking an entire virus particle's RNA, sequencing it, and saying that's the person's variant. They're sequencing chunks of RNA from many many virus particles in a sample and then fitting them together into a single 'consensus' sequence by figuring out which chunks at which position are most frequent in all the particles. So the person might have tons of different subtly different versions of the virus but they figure out which is most frequent.

This study did sequencing of virus from a single person over time and showed that as the immune system responded the virus actually changed in the patient to become more immune resistant (which makes sense evolutionarily if you figure that the virus is always mutating a bit and those mutations that better avoid the immune system might be more likely to infect cells).

So the virus had the upper hand for a while before finally the immune system managed to clamp down. But in the process the person technically had several different variants. There's some thought that some of the variants of concern like Alpha/Gamma developed this way in an immunocompromised person whose immune system couldn't quite clamp down. There's also concern that partially vaccinated people might lead to similar mutations.

the study posted:

We found that the burden of SARS-CoV-2 RNA declined substantially but irregularly between days 9 and 17 (Fig 5A). Between days 9 and 13, virus RNA declined by nearly 4 orders of magnitude, from 2.83 x 106 (N2)– 3.0 x 106 (N1) copies/mL to 3.14 x 102 (N1)– 3.86 x 102 (N2) copies/mL. However, virus RNA subsequently increased to 1.11 x 104 (N2)– 1.35 x 104 (N1) copies/mL on day 15, before declining again on day 17. This pattern was associated with the emergence of 2 minor variant SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes on day 11 and 4 minor variant haplotypes on day 15 (Fig 5B). Strikingly, these variants together bore 3 independent non-synonymous mutations within a single NTD epitope. On day 11, a C-to-T transition causing an H-to-Y change at amino acid residue 146 was found in 10/882 (1.1%) genomes sequenced.

7of7 fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Aug 4, 2021

resting bort face
Jun 2, 2000

by Fluffdaddy

You can't convince me this isn't just some kink/ASMR bullshit

Spinz
Jan 7, 2020

I ordered luscious new gemstones from India and made new earrings for my SA mart thread

Remember my earrings and art are much better than my posting

New stuff starts towards end of page 3 of the thread

resting bort face posted:

You can't convince me this isn't just some kink/ASMR bullshit

Okay it doesn't look like it though?
Like at all

AHH F/UGH
May 25, 2002

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

Dexter owns, I didn't know he had a phd

Could be

Don't forget he's also insanely rich and doesn't like, give anything back to anyone ever really



edit: Except the music he gave us, such as Cruising California (Bumpin' In My Trunk)!!

AHH F/UGH fucked around with this message at 03:49 on Aug 4, 2021

EL BROMANCE
Jun 10, 2006

COWABUNGA DUDES!
🥷🐢😬



He has a Philanthropy section on his wiki page rather than a Controversy one, so he’s better than most punk band frontmen.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

EL BROMANCE posted:

He has a Philanthropy section on his wiki page rather than a Controversy one, so he’s got a better PR manager than most punk band frontmen.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

AHH F/UGH posted:

edit: Except the music he gave us, such as Cruising California (Bumpin' In My Trunk)!!

That song rules. That whole album was great.

AHH F/UGH
May 25, 2002

Please don't call The Offspring a punk band, tia

How are u posted:

That song rules. That whole album was great.

At least put effort into your trolling dude

EL BROMANCE
Jun 10, 2006

COWABUNGA DUDES!
🥷🐢😬



AHH F/UGH posted:

Please don't call The Offspring a punk band, tia

Last decade (ugh, two decades) can’t take those 80s and early to mid 90s records away.

AHH F/UGH
May 25, 2002

Some say that even Ixnay isn't worth listening to but I'd say even Americana had its moments (Pay The Man etc), but after that it was basically a straight run to the grave

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EL BROMANCE
Jun 10, 2006

COWABUNGA DUDES!
🥷🐢😬



Americana is the album that absolutely crushed me in how disappointed I was when I bought it. Worse than a post Insomniac Green Day.

Anyway, I’m hoping the general ‘pro vax’ punk mentality (for the most part anyway) means I can eventually go to Fest this year and have a good time and none of the old man bands I like get sick and die.

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