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Tag urself: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1423301403649396738?s=20
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Aug 5, 2021 18:01
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PIZZA.BAT posted:yeah i've noticed a lot of people who now call themselves It's amazing how independents never have left-wing tendencies, it's just the GOP isn't extreme enough for them yet.
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Aug 5, 2021 18:10
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independents
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Group Sigma, knows Nate Siklver is a dork
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Aug 5, 2021 18:16
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https://overcast.fm/+HPatTCEM/13:46 They talk about the recent CDC leak and one thing they say for vaccinated people: For disease 1 in 5000 For hospitalization 1 in a million For death 1 in 2.5 million Haven’t listened to the whole thing but it’s pretty good, “this thing is not going away, forget about herd immunity, etc”
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Aug 5, 2021 18:36
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:https://overcast.fm/+HPatTCEM/13:46 I am sorry, I cannot listen to the podcast right now, what do they mean when they say 1 in 5000? Like, of all cases of Corona, vaccinated people count for 1 in 5000? A vaccinated person has a 1 in 5000 chance of getting the disease? That seems significantly better than what I thought to be the case.
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Aug 5, 2021 18:57
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Group F: just want to watch the world burn
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Aug 5, 2021 18:57
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:https://overcast.fm/+HPatTCEM/13:46 Yet again, garbage numbers for people who like good news about bad news. How about some data from one of the most highly vaxx'd states? https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/nearly-8000-breakthrough-covid-cases-reported-in-mass-100-have-now-died/2456116/ 30% of recent cases are breakthroughs 5% require hospitalization but 1. 4% of breakthroughs have died - roughly the same CFR as with wildtype before the vaccines.  To be clear, I'm sure the actual infection rate of the vaccinated is much higher (asymptomatic or mild, and/or not testing) but does that look like a one in 2.5 million CFR? Are there loving 250 million people in Massachusetts? Has everyone loving failed basic math and reading comprehension?
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Aug 5, 2021 18:58
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Group A-C. I'm so tired of this poo poo but I also have no desire to die or spread this poo poo so, forever no restaurants and mask on my face. I miss sipping a drink as I walked through a store. IncredibleIgloo posted:I am sorry, I cannot listen to the podcast right now, what do they mean when they say 1 in 5000? Like, of all cases of Corona, vaccinated people count for 1 in 5000? A vaccinated person has a 1 in 5000 chance of getting the disease? That seems significantly better than what I thought to be the case. I don't know how this is possible when the US has 1:9 of people who have had covid.
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Aug 5, 2021 19:00
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Here is some interesting information specifically about breakthrough cases and deaths, published at the end of July: https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/
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Aug 5, 2021 19:03
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what does it all mean
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Aug 5, 2021 19:05
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latinotwink1997 posted:Group F: just want to watch the world burn Hell yeah dude Its too bad it didn't quite kill tourism and airplane industries, but maybe by the time we get to Omega strain it'll be a coup de grace
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Aug 5, 2021 19:08
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vacillating between groups a-c by default because i am fully vaxxed, and the group i am in depends on the day, my mood, what i had for breakfast, the weather, phase of the moon, etc. etc.
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Aug 5, 2021 19:42
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A solid B that wishes he could slide into a C "let 'em fuckin' die" attitude, but I'm overly aware of people that can't get vaccinated or whose bodies just have weak immune systems even with vaccines.
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Aug 5, 2021 19:50
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Hard C
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Aug 5, 2021 20:07
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Just in case it's not clear what a loving clueless dipshit Nate is: https://mobile.twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1423109796782247942 https://imgur.com/i7KdYN9.mp4 This is exactly how I picture his "contemplating my tweet" face.
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Aug 5, 2021 20:11
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Goddamn I wish I could be like Nate Silver and declare myself an expert in whatever field I wanted despite being terrible at everything. Also so I could refer to actual published material as a "Take". Hot take incoming guys but oxygen? Yeah, it's breathable. Remember to credit me if you mention this fact, although I'm glad it's getting out there into the public sphere.
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Aug 5, 2021 20:14
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IncredibleIgloo posted:I am sorry, I cannot listen to the podcast right now, what do they mean when they say 1 in 5000? Like, of all cases of Corona, vaccinated people count for 1 in 5000? A vaccinated person has a 1 in 5000 chance of getting the disease? That seems significantly better than what I thought to be the case. Yeah, that was their back of the envelope conclusion, which probably means a ton more people got it and didn't even know, so it's good news imo (if you're vaccinated, if not just lol) Blitter posted:Yet again, garbage numbers for people who like good news about bad news. I think you're crack-pinging a bit here friend, relax I looked at that chart but I see a 0.002% of deaths in vaccinated people? That seems real good? (for vaxxed ppl) I finished the episode while working out (at home  ) but I certainly came away a little bit more relaxed. Basically they agree the CDC hosed up when they gambled with the messaging of "If you're vaccinated you can go maskless!"Somehow the CDC didn't expect antivaxxers to just... LIE about their status???? amazing imo, and a hearty lol Also the CDC going THE WAR HAS CHANGED and so on  But the guys in the podcast say we're still in a better spot than in 2020 thanks to the vaccines, and I tend to agree. And that it doesn't matter if it's the ancestral strain or Delta or Omega, there's nothing we can do besides just mask up, stay away from people (specially if they're not using masks) and get vaxxed. It's not going away anytime soon, so it should be taken more seriously Even the republican guy is saying it https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/opinion/covid-vaccine-safety.html So we should basically be careful for a few more months and see how things go, since it's apparently out of the question to lockdown again. Basically things are: not great, not terrible. tl;dr: GET VAXXED BITCH
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Aug 5, 2021 20:17
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i feel like a groundhog who emerged from the ground after a long winter, poked his head up, took a look around and noped right out again
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Aug 5, 2021 20:21
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latinotwink1997 posted:Group F: just want to watch the world burn thats group J
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Aug 5, 2021 20:22
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freebooter posted:Two month problem. Life in several countries particularly China has been basically back to normal for over a year, barring repeated reintroduction of lockdowns and restrictions because the virus keeps leaking in from the rest of the world which decided that killing millions and saddling the human race with an ineradicable virus was not as important as going out for dinner on the reg. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/with-the-delta-variant-spreading-is-chinas-zero-tolerance-covid-approach-over quote:As the highly transmissible Delta variant continues to spread across at least 17 provinces, China is facing a new dilemma: is its once-successful “zero tolerance” approach to containing the spread of the virus over, and what comes next? China is going to have to live with covid, just like you and me.
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Aug 5, 2021 20:26
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Hard A. People have been calling me totally paranoid for a year and a half now. I don't care. I never liked people anyway.
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Aug 5, 2021 20:31
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Group C!!! just got back from Vegas and those people are all group D 
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Aug 5, 2021 20:36
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Blitter posted:30% of recent cases are breakthroughs You're kind of leaning in the same base rate fallacy direction as the article you're complaining about. 30% of recent cases on its own just tells you that they have a high rate of vaccinations. It doesn't say anything useful about the efficacy of the vaccine against delta because you're missing a denominator or two. Now if they had said, "30% of those who are vaccinated and exposed up with a break through infection", then yes, the numbers would be much grimmer. The higher the vaccinated population, the more breakthroughs there are going to be in the vaccinated population vs unvaxxed, just simply because there are a lot of vaccinated people out there. Raskolnikov2089 fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Aug 5, 2021 |
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Aug 5, 2021 20:41
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:Yeah, that was their back of the envelope conclusion, which probably means a ton more people got it and didn't even know, so it's good news imo (if you're vaccinated, if not just lol) Case Fatality Ratio is the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a given time period. You do not include all the people who have been vaccinated and divide that by the fatalities; that is a next to useless number - doing that is like saying "only 0.9% of americans will ever die, because in 2019 only 2,854,838 people died out of a population of 328 million." It makes absolutely no sense and that's why CFR exists, and is used to describe fatality in disease. Raskolnikov2089 posted:You're kind of leaning in the same base rate fallacy direction as the article you're complaining about. That's true, and there are a lot of problems with tracking breakthroughs in the vaccinated both because it's an increasingly large percentage of the population and because there have been specific mandates by the CDC to not track presymptomatic, asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic disease within the vaccinated. That 30% number is pretty click-baity, and I probably shouldn't have included it. My main issue is with the portrayal of risk for the vaccinated, although again, if we had the true numbers of breakthroughs I'm sure that CFR would not be nearly identical to the CFR for the unvaccinated this time last year. Blitter fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Aug 5, 2021 |
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Aug 5, 2021 21:10
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TIL that I am a college educated elite
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Aug 5, 2021 21:22
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Group A only because I'll do whatever performance art it takes to not have to go back to that drat office.
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Aug 5, 2021 21:41
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hot cocoa on the couch posted:no. covid numbers have been very low and vaccine uptake is very high compared to america. would always like it to be higher (90%+ rather than ~80%), but as usual with canada, i find it hard to complain about our problems when comparing to the rest of the world. Well that's good news. Hopefully it stays that way
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Aug 5, 2021 21:42
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Peter Daou Zen posted:Group C!!! Vegas resident checking in; Group A; despondent
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Aug 5, 2021 22:00
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EL BROMANCE posted:If you're in the US, it's kinda fun to look at your counties vaccination records and compare them to the 2020 election results. It's so close for here it's hilarious, I guess whatever Trumpers who realise they're being duped and Dems who are stuck in a hippy mindset (or genuinely have health issues that restrict their use) just flat out cancel each other out. We have a lot more people with at least one dose, but it's not too far off: King County, WA: At least one vaccination - 82.1% Voted for Biden - 74.95%
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Aug 5, 2021 22:31
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A friend just posted on FB that his brother is having a heart attack and he can't get the medical care he needs because the hospital is overflowing with covid patients. This is in Phoenix. I hadn't heard anything about hospitals hitting capacity, can anyone there shed some light?
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Aug 5, 2021 22:54
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compshateme85 posted:A friend just posted on FB that his brother is having a heart attack and he can't get the medical care he needs because the hospital is overflowing with covid patients. This is in Phoenix. I hadn't heard anything about hospitals hitting capacity, can anyone there shed some light? I could have sworn most hospitals in third world hell holes are stretched to capacity during Covid surges? Edit: please dont take the third world thing seriously
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Aug 5, 2021 23:03
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stab posted:I could have sworn most hospitals in third world hell holes are stretched to capacity during Covid surges? The USA is absolutely a third world shithole by most metrics.
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Aug 5, 2021 23:48
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compshateme85 posted:A friend just posted on FB that his brother is having a heart attack and he can't get the medical care he needs because the hospital is overflowing with covid patients. This is in Phoenix. I hadn't heard anything about hospitals hitting capacity, can anyone there shed some light? Not sure about Phoenix, but major urban areas in general aren’t looking awesome. Sorry about your friend’s brother =/
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Aug 6, 2021 00:00
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Groups B through Z are going to be dead weight in the climate apocalypse.
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Aug 6, 2021 00:01
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You, an idiot: This neck gaiter will protect me from a viral epidemic Me, an intellectual: Oh my, what a Group D thing to say! 
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Aug 6, 2021 00:10
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Cross post from other thread It got banned from Streamable so he re-upped it to Rumble for anyone unlucky enough to have not heard it yet: https://rumble.com/vkqg33-im-not-gonna-live-a-lie-anymore.html
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Aug 6, 2021 00:33
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sharknado slashfic posted:TIL that I am a college educated elite That's where he lost me and I stopped reading
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Aug 6, 2021 00:35
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As someone who works in the medical logistics field. Our Covid kit production and shipment has increased by 650%. It's about to get really really bad. I work as Quality Management in my department so it's my job to make sure our productions of these kits are 100% accurate and perfect as it was meant to be made. And we are full steam ahead.
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Aug 6, 2021 00:40
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Picnic Princess posted:That's where he lost me and I stopped reading What you don't want covid discourse at the level of r/politicalcompassmemes
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Aug 6, 2021 00:55
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Nate Silver is a dumbass. Should have stuck with baseball. What the hell is that "breakdown"... with those numbers to usa is apparently 70% vaccinated? Almost like he pulled them out of his rear end?
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Aug 6, 2021 01:04
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