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2018 Thread here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3861071 2019 Thread here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3892360 2020 Thread here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3948419 Year 4 of keeping track of draft predictions, and frankly I am surprised this big dumb forum is still going. I started this thread a little later that usual, so we got Summer League to make everyone think Davion Mitchell is going to be a star. This year we get a fullish offseason to actually get guys up to speed, and a full 82 games with normal breaks to not destroy their bodies and spirits. So lets make some terrible predictions! Note this is for the 2021 Draft class, so guys selected this year (regardless if they'll play or not) THE PREDICTIONS Which 8 players will have the best career (regardless of draft position)(note if you are ordering or not, and its more fun if you do) Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad?
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Aug 20, 2021 18:13
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Which 8 players will have the best career (regardless of draft position)(note if you are ordering or not, and its more fun if you do) Tiered: Cade Cunningham - I'm a bit worried about his ability to score at an elite level in the NBA, but he's going to do everything else so well. He might be one of those guys who misses deserved all-NBA because he's averaging under 20 a game. He's the only guy I see what I'd be surprised if he doesn't make an all-star game. --- Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, Barnes, Mobley All hoopers. Basically this tier is guys who I think will score in the NBA while doing other stuff well. Mobley needs time to get his body to be NBA ready. He'll probably have a bad rookie season but then be better. ---- Bouknight, Sengun, Mitchell Bouknightt will take some time but I think he's got a really good game. Sengun I am overvaluing due to his summer league play but he looks like a versatile big on offense and defense and those guys are always cool. Mitchell was an odd pick as high as he was, but he'll be around the NBA a long time as a defensive guard who can shoot. So high aav, but probably a low ceiling. Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Primo Giddey Wagner Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? Sengun Trey Murphy Cam Thomas ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Cade Cunningham Jalen Green Scottie Barnes Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? Mitchell if the Kings give him a ton of rope Maybe Mobley just because he'll be pushed around but still good enough to get minutes and the ball.
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Aug 20, 2021 18:49
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Lockback posted:
Which 8 players will have the best career (regardless of draft position)(note if you are ordering or not, and its more fun if you do) Ordered Mobley Green Cade Suggs Şengün Murphy III Ziaire Primo Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Wagner Giddey Barnes Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? Şengün Murphy III Bones ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Mobley Green Cade Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? There is only one possible candidate, that is Cam Thomas
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Aug 20, 2021 18:51
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Which 8 players will have the best career (regardless of draft position)(note if you are ordering or not, and its more fun if you do) Ordered: Cade Green Mobley Giddey Duarte Suggs Sengun Jones Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Wagner Williams Bouknight Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? Garuba Sengun J Johnson ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Green Cade Mobley Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? Kuminga
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Aug 20, 2021 22:17
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Which 8 players will have the best career (regardless of draft position)(note if you are ordering or not, and its more fun if you do) Ordered Cade Cunningham Evan Mobley Jalen Green Jalen Suggs Moses Moody Ziaire Williams Jalen Johnson Jaden Springer Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Scottie Barnes Josh Primo James Bouknight Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? Jalen Johnson Jaden Springer Trey Murphy III (bonus: Sharife, Sengun, Bones) ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Cade Green Duarte Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? Cam Thomas or Bouknight
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Aug 21, 2021 17:12
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Which 8 players will have the best career Orderr Cade Mobley Green Suggs Moody Wagner Bones Springer Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Barnes Giddey Primo Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? Bones Springer Sengun ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Cade Green Moody Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? Cam Thomas, but I will continually insist that hes actually good
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Aug 22, 2021 00:08
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Which 8 players will have the best career Order Green Mobley Cade Suggs Moody Trey Murphy Wagner Sengun Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Ziaire Mitchell Kuminga (but he will bust for Philadelphia not GS) Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? Trey Murphy Sengun Springer ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Green Mobley Cade Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? Chris Duarte
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Aug 22, 2021 02:24
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Which 8 players will have the best career (unordered) Bones Mobley Green Cade Suggs Murphey Barnes Primo (giving Spurs credit) Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Primo (not giving Spurs credit) [Have not done the work to do anything but guess and I won't do that for anyone else in this category] Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? Bones Sengun Murphy ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Cade Green Barnes Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? Giddey (although I am only saying bad next year I have long term belief in him)
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Aug 22, 2021 07:41
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I feel like there is a lot more consensus this year. More obvious predictions, better scouting or are we just melding our opinions more?
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Aug 22, 2021 17:29
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Which 8 players will have the best career (regardless of draft position)(note if you are ordering or not, and its more fun if you do) Cade -----‐---------- Mobley ---------------- Giddey Suggs ---------------- Sengun ---------------- Kai Moody Barnes Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Kuminga Green Bouknight (killed by mj) Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? Sengun Kai Mann ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Cade Mobley Suggs Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? Green
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Aug 22, 2021 21:48
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Lockback posted:I feel like there is a lot more consensus this year. More obvious predictions, better scouting or are we just melding our opinions more? I didn’t have enough time deep dive this year so I am trusting y’all, summer league and podcasters.
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Aug 22, 2021 21:57
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Which 8 players will have the best career (regardless of draft position)(note if you are ordering or not, and its more fun if you do) Cade Cunningham - Jalen Green - Alperen Sengun Jalen Suggs Scottie Barnes - Evan Mobley Moses Moody Josh Giddey Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Jonathan Kuminga Franz Wagner Ziaire Williams Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? Alperen Sengun Kai Jones JT Thor ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Jalen Suggs Jalen Green Scottie Barnes Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? Cam Thomas
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Aug 23, 2021 00:09
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Any reason why so many are predicting Wagner to bust? It wasn't only MV who was solid on him there were lots of others but now everyone is out on him.
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Aug 23, 2021 19:23
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Rick posted:Any reason why so many are predicting Wagner to bust? It wasn't only MV who was solid on him there were lots of others but now everyone is out on him. Honestly to me the lottery looked more solid that usual, so it was harder to pick someone out. With Wagner I think he'll have a hard time finding a role on the offensive side, and I don't know if his defense will be good enough to keep him afloat. He was real mediocre from 3 and even though his FT% was real good I just don't see how he scores. I don't think his passing/handling is elite enough to buoy up the rest of this. I also really don't like his hit in Orlando. If he was on a more established team where his role can be more defined I might feel different, but at #8 I don't have much confidence that he won't struggle. All that said, for me it was more about picking 3 people from the lottery. I am not all that convinced he's doing to fail or anything. I just think he's a guy who has to make adjustments vs his position and it may be a challenge.
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Aug 23, 2021 19:39
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For me, it's a combination of things. First up is simply that I just don't think his ceiling is all that high, compared to a lot of the guys not just in the top 10, but like, the top 20-25 players. There's definitely space for him to be an above average rotation player, maybe even a solid starter, if things align just so, but--- ---I don't see how this happens in Orlando. He'll get some time early, but Orlando has guys that do what he does, only better. Or at least, guys that don't do lots of the things he also does not do. Orlando, as a team, seems to be allergic to offense. (As an aside, this is also why I think Suggs will win RotY; of the players who were actually in the NBA last year, the lead scorer currently on the Magic was Terrence Ross coming in at just under the scorching hot figure of 16 a game. Suggs hasn't played a real game, and is already the team's primary offensive threat by default.) So for Wagner to really stick out, he needs to not just play defense, but also find a way to contribute on the offensive end. Which leads to my third point: he didn't really step up on offense in the Summer League. I almost (almost, I said) would have preferred him jacking up more shots and finishing with a worse percentage. How unwatchable is this team going to be? With those factors at work, I think by the time he might normally have developed the experience to be a decent NBA player, people will have already forgotten about him. The other thing is, this draft class looks really good. Wagner's just a guy I can see falling through the cracks. Which I guess is more or less what Lockback said.
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Aug 23, 2021 23:15
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Rick posted:Any reason why so many are predicting Wagner to bust? It wasn't only MV who was solid on him there were lots of others but now everyone is out on him. He looked bad in summer league and his offensive stats are eh, but I also think summer league is a bad showcase for the stuff he's good at. He's not a gunner almost to a fault and really great team defense doesn't flash in a environment where most people don't care about D.
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Aug 24, 2021 05:20
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Lockback posted:2018 Thread here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3861071 (all in order) Top 8 Cade Mobley Green Suggs Giddey Segun Moody Thor Lotto Busts Kuminga Williams Barnes (I don't care how gritty he is, I still think he's MKG/Winslow part 2) Non-Lotto Careers Sengun Thor Springer ROY Green Mobley Cade MCW Award Green -- I'm half expecting him to have the Tyreke Evans year where he does 20/5/5 on some astonishingly bad shooting efficiency. Going to propose another award if people are interested-- The Anthony Randolph Award for the guy who has fool's gold potential so high that people will talk about him like a rookie who just needs a chance until year 5/6 of not developing--he never puts up stats, never puts it together, and ends up out of the league. I would put Kuminga forward as the favorite for that with other candidates being Barnes, Kai Brown, or Greg Jones off the top of my head.
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Aug 24, 2021 17:44
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I think Kuminga is a good bet for that award, although I will say it looks like he has taken a step forward from G league to SL. Or maybe that's just the SL talent being sub G league.
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Aug 24, 2021 19:27
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I think Wagner is going to be a good rotation player. He understands modern team defense, he handles the ball and has good hands in transition, he rebounds, and he is still growing. If his outside shot develops at all (it should given his free throw percentage), he will be a keeper.
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Aug 25, 2021 03:36
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predicto posted:I think Wagner is going to be a good rotation player. He understands modern team defense, he handles the ball and has good hands in transition, he rebounds, and he is still growing. If his outside shot develops at all (it should given his free throw percentage), he will be a keeper. His brother has shown steady improvement on his shot and put up a very respectable .372 on 3.9 3pa for Orlando once they picked him up. It did take him a couple years to get there, but he’s also worse than Franz in every way
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Aug 25, 2021 15:06
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People I know who follow high school aged stuff are all convinced Franz is a great shooter so that combined with the free throw percentage still has me pretty high on the shot. The form is good and he definitely flashes the ability to make deep shots and has stretches where he looks great, he just hasn't been consistent and is too hesitant.
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Aug 26, 2021 00:58
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This will be my worst showing in the last few years because I didn't get to watch summer league But here goes Which 8 players will have the best career (regardless of draft position)(note if you are ordering or not, and its more fun if you do) Cade Cunningham Evan Mobley Jalen Suggs josh giddey alperen sengun jalen johnson zaire willams franz wagner Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Scottie Barnes johnathon kuminga james bouknight Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? sengun kai jones josh christopher ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Cade Jalen Green Jalen Johnson Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? Bouknight
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Aug 30, 2021 05:52
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 13:42 |
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Which 8 players will have the best career (regardless of draft position)(note if you are ordering or not, and its more fun if you do) Ordered Cunningham Mobley Green Barnes Sengun Ziaire Williams Grimes Kuminga Which 3 guys taken in the lottery (top 14) will bust? Mitchell Primo Wagner Which 3 players outside the lottery (top 14) will have the best career? Sengun Kai Jones Thor ROY Prediction (feel free to put up to your top 3 in order) Green Mobley Cunningham Who will win the MCW award for best rookie numbers despite being bad? Kispert
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Aug 30, 2021 16:16
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