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lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Potrzebie posted:

The (M)egatroll has been curiously quiet on Twitter since t-2.

Immediately after it broke in media, Jan Emmanuel (lol again) scoured his feed of pics of them together. So yeah, it doesn't take a Sherlock Holmes here.

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V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

i would like to note that i made a relatively big post on the norwegian election at the very end of the previous page, if anyone's interested

Gedt
Oct 3, 2007

lilljonas posted:

Immediately after it broke in media, Jan Emmanuel (lol again) scoured his feed of pics of them together. So yeah, it doesn't take a Sherlock Holmes here.

Am I a big dumdum, or are we talking Hanif Bali here?

E: Im of course always a big dumdum

Cynic Jester
Apr 11, 2009

Let's put a simile on that face
A dazzling simile
Twinkling like the night sky
I voted R, hi5. Other than that, i mostly agree with your wall o text.

Potrzebie
Apr 6, 2010

I may not know what I'm talking about, but I sure love cops! ^^ Boy, but that boot is just yummy!
Lipstick Apathy
This post deserves to be here on the new page.

V. Illych L. posted:

well, election day in norway and the last polls look encouraging from where i'm standing (as a dues-paying member of the Red party and a gosh-darned commie). all the small parties seem to be hovering above the 4% line (e.g. https://www.nrk.no/norge/nrks-siste-supermaling-for-valget_-spenning-om-regjeringsalternativa_-drama-ved-sperregrensa-1.15642852 and https://www.tv2.no/a/14224608/ - the latter of these is especially weird, but it's the aggregate of a fair amount of polls)

SV wiil be hoping to hit 10%, and will be seriously disappointed if they end up with 8,something. personally i'm holding out a completely unreasonable hope that they'll manage 10,2 or something and barely edge out Frp. Ap are in the running for a relatively bad election by their standards, but if they remain the biggest party at around 25% they'll take it and hope to consolidate in government as they've usually done. fwiw i suspect that støre is going to cut a very fine figure as prime minister, and that's a huge asset for a party.

Sp got greedy and diluted their message when they started trying to make inroads in eastern Oslo, and they're paying for it imo. this is still a pretty strong showing for them, but they lost the ability to dictate the terms of the election and i think that doubling down on weird insubstantial "yee-haw cars'n'diesel" rhetoric drove a fair amount of dithering labour voters back to labour. had they kept focussed on decentralisation and kept insisting on the issues that grew them to 20%, they could've probably stayed level north of 15%.

H is not expecting to win this election and i'm pretty sure that Solberg has an international job of some sort lined up, but if they actually end up with a sub-20% result she may be pushed before she can jump. critically for the Conservatives, they don't have any obvious candidates to take over. maybe Torbjørn Røe Isaksen? much as i loathe him he's got a certain status as a bit of an intellectual and he's less clearly corpse-like and less divisive than e.g. sanner, and he's got more of a, shall we say, presence than Tina Bru. maybe they decide to really jump the shark and bring in one of their semi-talented young-ish women (Søreide is most obvious here, but she's never seemed like PM material to me). watch this space for when Solberg ejects; what's likable in H is not necessarily what's likable in the country.

Frp seem resigned to a 10-12% election result. combined with H's poor showing, this is actually very alarming news for the norwegian right - during my life i don't think they've ever been this collectively weak. maybe sometime in the nineties when bruntland was running rampant on everyone? Listhaug looks secure in her spot, the people who own the party clearly have confidence in her and the opposing centres of power within the party seem exhausted. she'll be waiting for an opportunity, but if nothing major presents itself over the next four years she might actually just get bored and go do something else; mercenaries can be very effective, but they're not in this for the drudgery of opposition, and Listhaug is certainly a mercenary.

So, the smaller parties:

from polls of early voters, red looks "safe". i'd guess that the polls are somewhat overhyping them, but the expected tapering towards election day hasn't materialised so i'm guessing that they'll end up somewhere north of 5%. if they don't make 4%, it'll be a huge disappointment. their campaign has been good, visibility has been good and one of their signature issues have received a late boost with the commuter flat mini-scandal. MDG have waged a remarkably disjointed campaign, and it's not entirely clear to me exactly whom they've been trying to sway. possibly they've been trying to get away from their "liberal elite" stigma, or maybe they've been assuming that the simple prevalence of climate change and environmental issues this election would automatically benefit them, and maybe they're still imagining that they're a meaningfully bloc-independent party. regardless, i'd be suprised if their relatively poor polling actually puts them underwater this time around - my guess is that they've got a hardened enough support base to rally and push them just over, but we'll certainly see - i'd be surprised, but not amazed.

i'll admit that the relative strength of V has caught me off-guard. their polls through the spring have not been good, and Guri Melby is a ghost in terms of presence and charisma, and i thought that this combined with their recent record of being completely humiliated when they've tried to do major policy pushes would bring them down to a solid 2-3%. i clearly underestimated the mobilising power of especially the drug liberalisation reform, and i now fully expect them to finish at 4-5%, much to my own chagrin. they do seem to be "borrowing" an awful lot of voters from H, which i suppose does make sense, but which bodes very poorly for them when they have to be in opposition together for four years. V is a great survivor of norwegian politics, however, and though i have predicted their demise with the rise of MDG who occupy much of the same demographic and ideological, it doesn't seem to be shaping out like that. evidently there's space for an urban educated liberal party on the right and on the left. if ever there was an argument for deurbanisation...

last (and hopefully least), KrF is a dead party walking. the hard-right turn came too late to be effective, and ropstad is not a good enough politican to properly do culture war in the way they'd have to in order to get new voters. as things stand they aren't vicious enough for the americanised new-christians, they're too stodgy and conservative for basically any non-psycho young people and their remaining base is old as balls. their centres of organising and power - the lay religious communities, especially in the south and west - are a shadow of what they once were and their complex of issues constantly brings them into conflict with anyone with whom they might cooperate (they're resolutely anticommunist in the old sense, so no cooperation with Labour, they don't hate refugees or the environment, so cooperating with Frp is difficult). my gut says they'll edge just below the 4% mark today, but that's going against most recent polling. we should know pretty early on what happens, though, because their strongest precincts tend to report their results fairly early on.

i have a few expectations for the incoming government, somewhat depending on the balance of power within it:

1) dental reform. if Rødt makes it over 4%, they're going to make this a massive headache for a red-green government until they actually do something about it
2) taxation reform. this is not going to go far enough, but it will at least happen - some degree of progressive taxation change is on the agenda even from Sp's constant grumbling
3) public service reform. the way things look, this is going to be the beginning of the end of NPM in norway, which may actually be a big deal internationally. we're also going to see the end of the government's most insanely underexposed policy, the ABE reform which imposes annual flat cuts on public expenditure in what is clearly a deliberate sabotage of the country's public administrative capacity
4) labour law. the present government has been a disaster for the labour movement, both in some obvious ways (changing employment law, freezing the tax-deductibility of union dues) and in some non-obvious ways (lax enforcement of the rules of engagement for the corporations, but strict enforcement for the unions; a beginning attempt to transfer service economy to a gig-economy style). this is going to change, though how far it's going to go is anyone's guess. LO is a very strange, very heavy organisation and they've got a lot of institutional knowledge and inertia which may lead them to make counter-intuitive decisions on this sort of thing. they're certainly not above prioritising their own organisation's position above the general struggle of workers in this country, but they *are* an extremely powerful organisation and with anti-liberalism as strong as it looks they're going to make hay.
5) abortion is going to be free until week 18.

points of contention:
the next government is going to have to formulate an industrial strategy of a kind which nobody's had to deal with since the seventies. this depends hugely on the balance of power in Parliament and in society, and i have no idea how it's going to shake out. this is one to watch.

drug reform is inevitably going to rear its head once more, and this is - again - difficult to say how will shake out. my guess would be that Ap writes its own version of what V proposed, puts a slightly stodgier spin on it and sells that over the opposition of Frp, KrF and possibly H and Sp, so it depends a lot on how comfortable Sp is that they can sell this to their core voters; i get the impression that Ap voters are largely comfortable with the idea, but got spooked by the incredibly inept political rollout that V tried to push.

foreign policy is going to be An Issue, especially if Sp+Ap+SV don't get an outright majority. there are major fault lines on NATO, EU and Russia policy even within those three parties, and Rødt are going to keep hammering those fault lines given half the chance. my guess would be that our NATO integration is frozen, we take a less actively antagonistic approach to Russia and we fail to implement a couple of controversial and symbolic EU directives and that it's left at that, but this also depends a lot on the specific parliamentary composition

environmental policy is going to be a loving mess. it's an enormous policy field and nobody really wants to touch it except for MDG, but they're going to have to do something big and splashy and they're going to have to somehow make it gel with their broader industrial policy. MDG over 4% will have no choice but to make a hell of a lot of noise about the incoming government's inevitable lacklustre environmental efforts and they may semi-credibly threaten to switch blocs if pushed too far. this is going to suck no matter where you are on the spectrum. i'd guess that we're going to see a large-scale offshore wind drive (it makes a ton of economic sense and it's, you know, green what with wind and everything) and serious effort into refurbishing our hydroelectric grid, but beyond that i peer into my crystal ball and see nothing but people shouting at each other. if the government falls mid-parliament, it's going to be over the environment. i don't even know what's going to happen re: oil. LoVeSe isn't happening for sure, but is expansion otherwise going to be halted? is it not? both are serious defeats for someone and it's going to have to happen. it may actually be that SV eats a loss on this and their members refuse to enter government, which would be very funny and also a complete disaster

infrastructure: it's always infrastructure week in norway. are we going to spend untold billions of kroner on a road because it made sense at the time? are we going to build a railway to the North because choo choo and planes bad? roads and rails are a perpetual source of grief, rage and embarassment and the four next years are going to be no different.

good elections, everyone!

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

V. Illych L. posted:

i would like to note that i made a relatively big post on the norwegian election at the very end of the previous page, if anyone's interested

I read it and enjoyed it, looking forward to see the actual results. :)

Gedt posted:

Am I a big dumdum, or are we talking Hanif Bali here?

E: Im of course always a big dumdum

Yes.

big scary monsters
Sep 2, 2011

-~Skullwave~-
Thank you for the big Norwegian election post, V. Illych, I found it very informative! Sounds like moderately encouraging stuff assuming no big surprises in the actual results.

ThaumPenguin
Oct 9, 2013

V. Illych L. posted:

i would like to note that i made a relatively big post on the norwegian election at the very end of the previous page, if anyone's interested

It was very good! I always enjoy seeing your takes on stuff like this 😊

TLM3101
Sep 8, 2010



V. Illych L. posted:

i would like to note that i made a relatively big post on the norwegian election at the very end of the previous page, if anyone's interested

Thank you, fellow card-carrying commie!

All I can add is that it looks like solid analysis to me, especially the H/KrF segment. I'm not entirely sure SP's collapse is entirely due to diluting their message for Oslo, though. If I were to hazard a guess. launching Vedum as a candidate for prime minister smacked a bit too much of hubris for at least some people, but admittedly, that's based on anecdata.

Fingers crossed for getting above the cut-off. 5 % would be amazing, but I'll be happy with enough to get a proper cohort into parliament. If KrF drops out aside from direct mandates, that'd be icing on the cake.

Nice piece of fish
Jan 29, 2008

Ultra Carp
Thought krf didn't like mandates.

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

V. Illych L. posted:

well, election day in norway and the last polls look encouraging from where i'm standing (as a dues-paying member of the Red party and a gosh-darned commie). all the small parties seem to be hovering above the 4% line (e.g. https://www.nrk.no/norge/nrks-siste-supermaling-for-valget_-spenning-om-regjeringsalternativa_-drama-ved-sperregrensa-1.15642852 and https://www.tv2.no/a/14224608/ - the latter of these is especially weird, but it's the aggregate of a fair amount of polls)

SV wiil be hoping to hit 10%, and will be seriously disappointed if they end up with 8,something. personally i'm holding out a completely unreasonable hope that they'll manage 10,2 or something and barely edge out Frp. Ap are in the running for a relatively bad election by their standards, but if they remain the biggest party at around 25% they'll take it and hope to consolidate in government as they've usually done. fwiw i suspect that støre is going to cut a very fine figure as prime minister, and that's a huge asset for a party.

Sp got greedy and diluted their message when they started trying to make inroads in eastern Oslo, and they're paying for it imo. this is still a pretty strong showing for them, but they lost the ability to dictate the terms of the election and i think that doubling down on weird insubstantial "yee-haw cars'n'diesel" rhetoric drove a fair amount of dithering labour voters back to labour. had they kept focussed on decentralisation and kept insisting on the issues that grew them to 20%, they could've probably stayed level north of 15%.

H is not expecting to win this election and i'm pretty sure that Solberg has an international job of some sort lined up, but if they actually end up with a sub-20% result she may be pushed before she can jump. critically for the Conservatives, they don't have any obvious candidates to take over. maybe Torbjørn Røe Isaksen? much as i loathe him he's got a certain status as a bit of an intellectual and he's less clearly corpse-like and less divisive than e.g. sanner, and he's got more of a, shall we say, presence than Tina Bru. maybe they decide to really jump the shark and bring in one of their semi-talented young-ish women (Søreide is most obvious here, but she's never seemed like PM material to me). watch this space for when Solberg ejects; what's likable in H is not necessarily what's likable in the country.

Frp seem resigned to a 10-12% election result. combined with H's poor showing, this is actually very alarming news for the norwegian right - during my life i don't think they've ever been this collectively weak. maybe sometime in the nineties when bruntland was running rampant on everyone? Listhaug looks secure in her spot, the people who own the party clearly have confidence in her and the opposing centres of power within the party seem exhausted. she'll be waiting for an opportunity, but if nothing major presents itself over the next four years she might actually just get bored and go do something else; mercenaries can be very effective, but they're not in this for the drudgery of opposition, and Listhaug is certainly a mercenary.

So, the smaller parties:

from polls of early voters, red looks "safe". i'd guess that the polls are somewhat overhyping them, but the expected tapering towards election day hasn't materialised so i'm guessing that they'll end up somewhere north of 5%. if they don't make 4%, it'll be a huge disappointment. their campaign has been good, visibility has been good and one of their signature issues have received a late boost with the commuter flat mini-scandal. MDG have waged a remarkably disjointed campaign, and it's not entirely clear to me exactly whom they've been trying to sway. possibly they've been trying to get away from their "liberal elite" stigma, or maybe they've been assuming that the simple prevalence of climate change and environmental issues this election would automatically benefit them, and maybe they're still imagining that they're a meaningfully bloc-independent party. regardless, i'd be suprised if their relatively poor polling actually puts them underwater this time around - my guess is that they've got a hardened enough support base to rally and push them just over, but we'll certainly see - i'd be surprised, but not amazed.

i'll admit that the relative strength of V has caught me off-guard. their polls through the spring have not been good, and Guri Melby is a ghost in terms of presence and charisma, and i thought that this combined with their recent record of being completely humiliated when they've tried to do major policy pushes would bring them down to a solid 2-3%. i clearly underestimated the mobilising power of especially the drug liberalisation reform, and i now fully expect them to finish at 4-5%, much to my own chagrin. they do seem to be "borrowing" an awful lot of voters from H, which i suppose does make sense, but which bodes very poorly for them when they have to be in opposition together for four years. V is a great survivor of norwegian politics, however, and though i have predicted their demise with the rise of MDG who occupy much of the same demographic and ideological, it doesn't seem to be shaping out like that. evidently there's space for an urban educated liberal party on the right and on the left. if ever there was an argument for deurbanisation...

last (and hopefully least), KrF is a dead party walking. the hard-right turn came too late to be effective, and ropstad is not a good enough politican to properly do culture war in the way they'd have to in order to get new voters. as things stand they aren't vicious enough for the americanised new-christians, they're too stodgy and conservative for basically any non-psycho young people and their remaining base is old as balls. their centres of organising and power - the lay religious communities, especially in the south and west - are a shadow of what they once were and their complex of issues constantly brings them into conflict with anyone with whom they might cooperate (they're resolutely anticommunist in the old sense, so no cooperation with Labour, they don't hate refugees or the environment, so cooperating with Frp is difficult). my gut says they'll edge just below the 4% mark today, but that's going against most recent polling. we should know pretty early on what happens, though, because their strongest precincts tend to report their results fairly early on.

i have a few expectations for the incoming government, somewhat depending on the balance of power within it:

1) dental reform. if Rødt makes it over 4%, they're going to make this a massive headache for a red-green government until they actually do something about it
2) taxation reform. this is not going to go far enough, but it will at least happen - some degree of progressive taxation change is on the agenda even from Sp's constant grumbling
3) public service reform. the way things look, this is going to be the beginning of the end of NPM in norway, which may actually be a big deal internationally. we're also going to see the end of the government's most insanely underexposed policy, the ABE reform which imposes annual flat cuts on public expenditure in what is clearly a deliberate sabotage of the country's public administrative capacity
4) labour law. the present government has been a disaster for the labour movement, both in some obvious ways (changing employment law, freezing the tax-deductibility of union dues) and in some non-obvious ways (lax enforcement of the rules of engagement for the corporations, but strict enforcement for the unions; a beginning attempt to transfer service economy to a gig-economy style). this is going to change, though how far it's going to go is anyone's guess. LO is a very strange, very heavy organisation and they've got a lot of institutional knowledge and inertia which may lead them to make counter-intuitive decisions on this sort of thing. they're certainly not above prioritising their own organisation's position above the general struggle of workers in this country, but they *are* an extremely powerful organisation and with anti-liberalism as strong as it looks they're going to make hay.
5) abortion is going to be free until week 18.

points of contention:
the next government is going to have to formulate an industrial strategy of a kind which nobody's had to deal with since the seventies. this depends hugely on the balance of power in Parliament and in society, and i have no idea how it's going to shake out. this is one to watch.

drug reform is inevitably going to rear its head once more, and this is - again - difficult to say how will shake out. my guess would be that Ap writes its own version of what V proposed, puts a slightly stodgier spin on it and sells that over the opposition of Frp, KrF and possibly H and Sp, so it depends a lot on how comfortable Sp is that they can sell this to their core voters; i get the impression that Ap voters are largely comfortable with the idea, but got spooked by the incredibly inept political rollout that V tried to push.

foreign policy is going to be An Issue, especially if Sp+Ap+SV don't get an outright majority. there are major fault lines on NATO, EU and Russia policy even within those three parties, and Rødt are going to keep hammering those fault lines given half the chance. my guess would be that our NATO integration is frozen, we take a less actively antagonistic approach to Russia and we fail to implement a couple of controversial and symbolic EU directives and that it's left at that, but this also depends a lot on the specific parliamentary composition

environmental policy is going to be a loving mess. it's an enormous policy field and nobody really wants to touch it except for MDG, but they're going to have to do something big and splashy and they're going to have to somehow make it gel with their broader industrial policy. MDG over 4% will have no choice but to make a hell of a lot of noise about the incoming government's inevitable lacklustre environmental efforts and they may semi-credibly threaten to switch blocs if pushed too far. this is going to suck no matter where you are on the spectrum. i'd guess that we're going to see a large-scale offshore wind drive (it makes a ton of economic sense and it's, you know, green what with wind and everything) and serious effort into refurbishing our hydroelectric grid, but beyond that i peer into my crystal ball and see nothing but people shouting at each other. if the government falls mid-parliament, it's going to be over the environment. i don't even know what's going to happen re: oil. LoVeSe isn't happening for sure, but is expansion otherwise going to be halted? is it not? both are serious defeats for someone and it's going to have to happen. it may actually be that SV eats a loss on this and their members refuse to enter government, which would be very funny and also a complete disaster

infrastructure: it's always infrastructure week in norway. are we going to spend untold billions of kroner on a road because it made sense at the time? are we going to build a railway to the North because choo choo and planes bad? roads and rails are a perpetual source of grief, rage and embarassment and the four next years are going to be no different.

good elections, everyone!

Very informative post etc, but I have to ask, do you feel dirty now that you sullied 10 of your sentences with capital letters at the start?

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011

V. Illych L. posted:

i would like to note that i made a relatively big post on the norwegian election at the very end of the previous page, if anyone's interested

Came to read this thread for something like this, thank you!

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Current tally



Participation around 80%, close to 90% of all votes were early votes. In my home municpality 100% of votes cast were early votes, results for that municipality (Modum in Viken) if anyone's curious.

Groke
Jul 27, 2007
New Adventures In Mom Strength
KrF below the cutoff is a delicious thought and FrP smaller than SV would make me smile for a whole day.

(I do have a few friends around my age, i.e. 40-something, who are both churchgoing Christians and also politically active; they all vote SV and wouldn't touch KrF with an eleven-foot pole. Jesus, if he existed, wasn't no loving moralizing conservative.)

TLM3101
Sep 8, 2010



Groke posted:

KrF below the cutoff is a delicious thought and FrP smaller than SV would make me smile for a whole day.

(I do have a few friends around my age, i.e. 40-something, who are both churchgoing Christians and also politically active; they all vote SV and wouldn't touch KrF with an eleven-foot pole. Jesus, if he existed, wasn't no loving moralizing conservative.)

I doubt that FrP will drop below SV ( this time ) but inshallah KrF will, indeed, fall below the cutoff, and that will make it entirely worth it.

Rincewinds
Jul 30, 2014

MEAT IS MEAT
I guess I am cynical enough to hope all 4 get above the 4%, so that AP, SV and SP will need Rødt or MDG in votes.

TLM3101
Sep 8, 2010



Rincewinds posted:

I guess I am cynical enough to hope all 4 get above the 4%, so that AP, SV and SP will need Rødt or MDG in votes.

I see that, but in all honesty, the shocking mendacity and terrible political craftsmanship of using abortion, of all things, in a political horsetrade between H and KrF as the price for KrF to enter a government they had sworn they wouldn't join, needs to be harshly rebuked. And while sending the KrF below the cutoff might not get the message across, no-one can pretend that it wasn't, in fact, sent.

Mr. Sickos
May 22, 2011

God drat if Venstre voters aren't the most pathetic bunch of people. Bending over backwards for right-wingers who absolutely despise them, seven years with Siv Jensen as minister of finance and the most evil and vile vampires Norway has ever seen taking turns being minister of justice. All to get through their biggest policies, more expensive air travel and removal of history and science from schools. And after eight years of humiliating and worthless policies and headlines? Straight back to 4.4% for more slop.

Grimson
Dec 16, 2004



Venstre gonna Venstre, though.



thotsky
Jun 7, 2005

hot to trot
They know what they're getting, on some level. I don't really think they believe in much other than the right wing/capitalism stuff. Everything else is just posturing. They're not socially progressive, enabling KrF and FrP, and most Venstre voters are squares that would never touch drugs. It's a party for liberal wonks wishing they could vote for the Democrats, a pitstop for the children of the bourgeoisie, a neccesary evil for the Norwegian right to not cede all ground to the left on certain issues, just like MDG is.

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Randarkman posted:

Current tally



Participation around 80%, close to 90% of all votes were early votes. In my home municpality 100% of votes cast were early votes, results for that municipality (Modum in Viken) if anyone's curious.



blåfargeverket forever?


Zudgemud posted:

Very informative post etc, but I have to ask, do you feel dirty now that you sullied 10 of your sentences with capital letters at the start?

once upon a time i would've written the whole thing with real grammar and everything


TLM3101 posted:

Thank you, fellow card-carrying commie!

All I can add is that it looks like solid analysis to me, especially the H/KrF segment. I'm not entirely sure SP's collapse is entirely due to diluting their message for Oslo, though. If I were to hazard a guess. launching Vedum as a candidate for prime minister smacked a bit too much of hubris for at least some people, but admittedly, that's based on anecdata.

Fingers crossed for getting above the cut-off. 5 % would be amazing, but I'll be happy with enough to get a proper cohort into parliament. If KrF drops out aside from direct mandates, that'd be icing on the cake.

i missed by a bit, but i agree. i am now drunk and happy and will have a very unproductive day at work tomorrow.

my god i'm glad to be rid of the conservatives! my commisserations to SV's relatively poor showing, but we all (except for randarkman) progessed tonight

RIP Krf, bar some complete renewal they're now on a one-way path to irrelevance. V are hosed in opposition and are almost certainly only going to beat 4% if enough people want the conservatives to rule, which hopefuly won't happen with a proper left-wing opposition in place.

tonight, comrades, we loving won!

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

weirdly it looks like most rødt-voters held their nerve (though we did have a bit of a dip, i was wrong to dismiss it) whereas a bunch of SV-ers went over to Ap at the last moment. at this time i am far beyond making much sense of this, but it did rob of us some genuinely good people in parliament

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

V. Illych L. posted:

my god i'm glad to be rid of the conservatives! my commisserations to SV's relatively poor showing, but we all (except for randarkman) progessed tonight

Hey, I voted R.

Nice piece of fish
Jan 29, 2008

Ultra Carp
Krf under 4 hallelujaaaaa

TLM3101
Sep 8, 2010



Nice piece of fish posted:

Krf under 4 hallelujaaaaa

My genuine thanks to Lippestad & co in Sentrum for grabbing enough votes to gently caress KrF over. May they continue to grow, because I do think we need a christian democratic values party.... I just don't think it should be KrF, who has been trying to weld together the coalition of more progressive christians and our own version of Y'all Qaeda ( though the latter have mostly split off and gone to De Kristne ) with terrible results.

The kind of genteel fundamentalism and homophobia that Ropstad champions is too weak for the real fundies and too brazen for anyone decent, so best there be an end on't.

TLM3101 fucked around with this message at 05:56 on Sep 14, 2021

thotsky
Jun 7, 2005

hot to trot

V. Illych L. posted:

weirdly it looks like most rødt-voters held their nerve (though we did have a bit of a dip, i was wrong to dismiss it) whereas a bunch of SV-ers went over to Ap at the last moment. at this time i am far beyond making much sense of this, but it did rob of us some genuinely good people in parliament

My father went from SV to AP, stating it came down to which party leader he preferred. My theory is that some of the move (and the growth of Rødt as well) can be explained by the battle lines between the right and the left having become more delineated of late. Fencesitting between liberalism and socialism like SV has done just doesn't make as much sense.

Nice piece of fish
Jan 29, 2008

Ultra Carp

TLM3101 posted:

My genuine thanks to Lippestad & co in Sentrum for grabbing enough votes to gently caress KrF over. May they continue to grow, because I do think we need a christian democratic values party.... I just don't think it should be KrF, who has been trying to weld together the coalition of more progressive christians and our own version of Y'all Qaeda ( though the latter have mostly split off and gone to De Kristne ) with terrible results.

The kind of genteel fundamentalism and homophobia that Ropstad champions is too weak for the real fundies and too brazen for anyone decent, so best there be an end on't.

We need a christian democratic party... Well under 1% at any given time. Ideally like 3 of them.

Alhazred
Feb 16, 2011




Alhazred posted:

It seems like Heglheim might lose his seat, which would be loving hilarious.

Haha, bye bitch.

endocriminologist
May 17, 2021

SUFFERINGLOVER:press send + soul + earth lol
inncntsoul:ok

(inncntsoul has left the game)

ARCHON_MASTER:lol
MAMMON69:lol
Congratulations Norway on not following our trend! Is there anywhere I can see results from specific municipalities and such?

jeebus bob
Nov 4, 2004

Festina lente

endocriminologist posted:

Congratulations Norway on not following our trend! Is there anywhere I can see results from specific municipalities and such?

If you can trust wikipedia it has pretty detailed results already:
https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stortingsvalget_2021

Interesting to note that Oslo is more right-leaning than the country.
I always assumed (and have generally seen it confirmed) that most big cities, especially capital cities, would always be more left-leaning than their respective countries so I'd like to hear from some locals why that isn't the case here.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

jeebus bob posted:

If you can trust wikipedia it has pretty detailed results already:
https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stortingsvalget_2021

Interesting to note that Oslo is more right-leaning than the country.
I always assumed (and have generally seen it confirmed) that most big cities, especially capital cities, would always be more left-leaning than their respective countries so I'd like to hear from some locals why that isn't the case here.
Oslo is the most Danish-influenced part of Norway, and Denmark was a major innovator in “patriotism” at the height of the empire. Clearly it stuck.

military cervix
Dec 24, 2006

Hey guys

endocriminologist posted:

Congratulations Norway on not following our trend! Is there anywhere I can see results from specific municipalities and such?

https://www.vg.no/valgnatt/2021/ You can see different regions, municipalities and even stemmekrets here.

endocriminologist
May 17, 2021

SUFFERINGLOVER:press send + soul + earth lol
inncntsoul:ok

(inncntsoul has left the game)

ARCHON_MASTER:lol
MAMMON69:lol
Thank you everyone!

big scary monsters
Sep 2, 2011

-~Skullwave~-
Congratulations, Norwegian friends! I can't vote but I bring dire warnings of life under UK governments to every Norwegian I speak with, and I like to think that helped.

endocriminologist posted:

Congratulations Norway on not following our trend!
I found it remarkable in the run-up that Norway didn't have a popular fascist party contending this election. Almost every other country in Europe has a least one, often several.

Nice piece of fish
Jan 29, 2008

Ultra Carp

big scary monsters posted:

Congratulations, Norwegian friends! I can't vote but I bring dire warnings of life under UK governments to every Norwegian I speak with, and I like to think that helped.

I found it remarkable in the run-up that Norway didn't have a popular fascist party contending this election. Almost every other country in Europe has a least one, often several.

We did it's called Demokratene I think who are the trump party but unfortunately for them it turns out that most norwegians can infact read.

Potrzebie
Apr 6, 2010

I may not know what I'm talking about, but I sure love cops! ^^ Boy, but that boot is just yummy!
Lipstick Apathy

Nice piece of fish posted:

We did it's called Demokratene I think who are the trump party but unfortunately for them it turns out that most norwegians can infact read.

Please teach your stupid brothers and sisters in Sweden the forbidden technique of read!

Beeswax
Dec 29, 2005

Grimey Drawer
who the gently caress is scraeming "LEARN TO READ" at my house. show yourself, coward. i will never read

Nice piece of fish
Jan 29, 2008

Ultra Carp

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

jeebus bob posted:

If you can trust wikipedia it has pretty detailed results already:
https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stortingsvalget_2021

Interesting to note that Oslo is more right-leaning than the country.
I always assumed (and have generally seen it confirmed) that most big cities, especially capital cities, would always be more left-leaning than their respective countries so I'd like to hear from some locals why that isn't the case here.

oslo and especially bergen are traditionally cities of the norwegian bourgeoisie. oslo also has the state apparatus. neither of these forces are traditionally bastions of progressivism, which has been more traditionally associated with the proletarians (and, in norway, country intellectuals and lay communities etc). back in the heyday of the Liberal party, they were basically a coalition between international capital (mostly shipping concerns - all of the great Liberal prime ministers were shipping magnates), localist intellectuals, prosperous farmers, religious nonconformists and the nascent worker's movement, which is a completely insane coalition unless you remember who they're up against - remnant aristocrats, the bigger landowners, industrial capital and the incredibly insular oslo bureaucracy

so you get weird clashes like landsmaal getting actual purchase because nobody likes this bunch of arrogant danicised reactionaries who live almost exclusively in the cities which still at the time constitutes a fairly small chunk of the population

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ulvir
Jan 2, 2005

jeebus bob posted:

If you can trust wikipedia it has pretty detailed results already:
https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stortingsvalget_2021

Interesting to note that Oslo is more right-leaning than the country.
I always assumed (and have generally seen it confirmed) that most big cities, especially capital cities, would always be more left-leaning than their respective countries so I'd like to hear from some locals why that isn't the case here.

oslo is heavily divided, where the (traditonally and still largely) affluent west lean conservative, and the east lean towards labour and left. the western part of oslo also usually has a higher voter turnout than the east, and this is still true in this election https://www.nrk.no/valg/2021/resultat/geografi/03/, with the difference between the lowest and highest being over 20%

e: there's probably more to the story than this that someone more competent than me can comment on.

ulvir fucked around with this message at 12:26 on Sep 14, 2021

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