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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

Potato Salad posted:

what was the R value for OG covid that SA settled on? 8? 7?

What? No, it's like 3. Delta's the one that's ~8.

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Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Potato Salad posted:

what was the R value for OG covid that SA settled on? 8? 7?

??? R-value is dependent on the context, it's not an inherent property of the virus (though obviously it's strongly correlated with the transmissibility of the virus)

bane mask golem
Sep 16, 2021

by Fluffdaddy

Rosalind posted:

They are literally discussing boosters at the very moment you posted this. You can watch it live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQevYc2jX7Y

The CDC is a hollow shell of what it once was thanks in part to the Trump admin. I know a lot of people who graduated from my program who would have gone on to apply to the CDC saying "absolutely not" after seeing all the bullshit of the federal government in recent years. Many of them went to local public health, academia, or pharma instead. Who wants to be a scientist for the government when the president is manipulating your work with a sharpie for national television? Who wants to work for the CDC when the president is suggesting people drink bleach? Etc.

HIV maintains a persistent viral load after infection without treatment. COVID viral load is typically undetectable after 2 weeks of infection.
CJD is caused by prions not a virus so the mechanism is very different.
Varicella Zoster is more interesting in that it does indeed lay dormant and then possibly cause shingles. However, I don't think we've ever previously observed a coronavirus capable of being dormant in a way similar to Varicella Zoster. They are structurally very different.

I'm not a virologist or immunologist but I am skeptical about the possibility of some sort of long term surprise covid 2: covid with a vengeance years down the line.

Oh neat, maybe we're not as gently caressed as I'd feared. That's a relief, I just hope boosters get rolled out soon since they really seem to help.

Yeah sorry, I didn't mean that COVID would use the exact same mechanism of action of those examples. I just meant that we should plan for the worst and hope for the best. We shouldn't assume COVID doesn't cause long-term damage, just because we don't have long-term data yet. Maybe I'm just a nervous nellie, but I'd lean in the opposite direction- that we should be cautious and not assume we fully understand it because we've got data for how it's acted in humans for 21ish months. I don't want to find out it lingers in brains and causes antivaxx lunatics to get even more crazy over time.

I don't know, I read an NPR article about that a couple of weeks back, and it talked about them finding COVID in peoples' bodies months after infection? That seems a little concerning.

Craptacular!
Jul 9, 2001

Fuck the DH
CNN today has been collecting quotes from various public health people (an FDA doctor, a medical school dean, etc) that Biden's deadline for boosters is a forcing hands into rushing them to a hasty decision that could have been prevented, and calling for more time.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



My personal stance on supporting boosters regardless of whatever the conflicting messages coming from on high are that day comes down to:

1) If it's safe enough for people like Gov Abbot it's safe enough for me
2) While I acknowledge that even if I get a breakthrough it's extremely unlikely I get actually seriously ill, I'd much rather avoid the breakthrough and the risk of transmission entirely because I have high risk friends and family
3) There's already an entire country doing them and studying the results and I haven't seen anything stemming from that which is giving anybody pause. If there actually were some blaring alarm coming out of Israel's booster program I'm sure we'd be hearing about that instead of just people being vaguely worried that they may not actually be necessary.

What I'd like the hapless stenographers in our legacy media who actually have access to these figures to start doing is asking these people if they themselves have gotten a booster or not. The argument doesn't seem to be that they're unsafe, but rather that in their opinion people don't need them which is like, okay? Then retool distribution so that the dose I don't get doesn't just go in the trash. I'll be getting a booster using circulating antibody studies out of Israel as a timeline until then, it's the choice between some risk of sickness and spread and none

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Comirnaty sounds like when you're intubated and trying to say "community".

Me, reaching into the cooler on the patio on a nice warm day: "C'mere, Natty"

MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004

Second to last call of the day:

“They’re making us go back to work in October and they want us to get tested. I want to know if I have the antibodies.”

I explain the difference between rapid testing, PCR testing, qualitative vs quantitative antibody testing using simple metaphors. I go over how I’ve seen other patients ask for the antibody test sometimes get a false sense of security from the results.

“Just because you have a result that says you were exposed in the past to COVID doesn’t mean you’ll be best protected in the future without getting vaccinated.”

“I understand, but I want the test for my peace of mind.”

“And if the test comes back negative, that doesn’t mean you’ll always test negative in the future.”

“I know, my sister tested negative then later she got sick and died from the virus. I want the test for my peace of mind.”

“So you understand why I want to make sure you have as much protection as possible by getting vaccinated right?”

“I understand, but I want the test for my peace of mind.”

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Epic High Five posted:

I'll be getting a booster using circulating antibody studies out of Israel as a timeline until then, it's the choice between some risk of sickness and spread and none

I think boosters entirely eliminating the risk of transmission and sickness is some wishful thinking. Reduce it sure but you sure as gently caress aren't getting 100% sterilizating immunity.

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

Craptacular! posted:

CNN today has been collecting quotes from various public health people (an FDA doctor, a medical school dean, etc) that Biden's deadline for boosters is a forcing hands into rushing them to a hasty decision that could have been prevented, and calling for more time.

Which is silly since there is already data from Israel. What excuse does a super power nation have other than complete incompetence?

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

I think boosters entirely eliminating the risk of transmission and sickness is some wishful thinking. Reduce it sure but you sure as gently caress aren't getting 100% sterilizating immunity.

Yeah it's probably not 100%, but never becoming symptomatic because the anti-COVID goon squad is still on patrol is probably the closest thing considering my exposure will also still be mitigated by NPIs

At least that's my line of thinking, mostly what it comes down to is that nobody has any good reason why I shouldn't

Rosalind
Apr 30, 2013

When we hit our lowest point, we are open to the greatest change.

bane mask golem posted:

Oh neat, maybe we're not as gently caressed as I'd feared. That's a relief, I just hope boosters get rolled out soon since they really seem to help.

Yeah sorry, I didn't mean that COVID would use the exact same mechanism of action of those examples. I just meant that we should plan for the worst and hope for the best. We shouldn't assume COVID doesn't cause long-term damage, just because we don't have long-term data yet. Maybe I'm just a nervous nellie, but I'd lean in the opposite direction- that we should be cautious and not assume we fully understand it because we've got data for how it's acted in humans for 21ish months. I don't want to find out it lingers in brains and causes antivaxx lunatics to get even more crazy over time.

I don't know, I read an NPR article about that a couple of weeks back, and it talked about them finding COVID in peoples' bodies months after infection? That seems a little concerning.

There is evidence of persistence for many common viruses:

Influenza https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20587197/
Rhinovirus https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5289482/
Measles virus https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7737565/

There's quite a bit of difference between small amounts of a virus persisting in the body and them causing long-term negative health outcomes. A lot has to happen. Varicella Zoster, for instance, resembles viruses that cause chronic infections (such as HSV) which is evidence to how it can linger then cause shingles. Coronaviruses do not resemble these viruses.

I agree that caution is warranted, but there's a difference between caution and fear. I don't think there's enough (or any) evidence right now that people should be afraid of some sort of long-term surprising outcome down the line. While this coronavirus is novel, we have seen many coronaviruses in the past and as far as I'm aware there haven't been any surprise long-term outcomes documented.

poll plane variant
Jan 12, 2021

by sebmojo
The Israeli data seems to really suggest that if you had Denmark's vaccine uptake with Israel's vaccine schedule you'd be able to stop community spread without NPIs, something the West desperately needs to accomplish.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

Which is silly since there is already data from Israel. What excuse does a super power nation have other than complete incompetence?

Because there is data from a number of other sources too, some of which contradict the Israeli data (or at least suggest that the conclusion from the Israeli data is not that boosters are necessarily needed now for the general public)?

E.g.: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/13/covid-booster-shots-data-shows-third-shots-not-appropriate-at-this-time-scientists-conclude.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/covid-booster-shots-scientists-blast-us-move-as-premature.html

Not weighing in myself, as I don't have the expertise, but it definitely doesn't sound cut-and-dried. In any case, the Biden Administration is in favor.

poll plane variant
Jan 12, 2021

by sebmojo
The US plan was always to vaccinate our way to a miraculous outcome. We need to prevent mild disease to achieve our policy goals, since "living with the virus" and everyone getting "mild to moderate" cases twice a year is pretty untenable economically, and NPIs are off the table. Boosters are almost by definition the only way forward when the only permissable tool is vaccination.

Kestral
Nov 24, 2000

Forum Veteran

Rosalind posted:

I'm not a virologist or immunologist but I am skeptical about the possibility of some sort of long term surprise covid 2: covid with a vengeance years down the line.

It's being compared to ME/CFS, which is to say, it's not the viral loading sitting in your system doing damage, it's a cascade of post-viral effects. This is a good summary of the topic from a health professional who also has contracted serious long COVID, although if there's a more recent one I'd be interested to see it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oBbbx46igk

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

Sir John Falstaff posted:

Because there is data from a number of other sources too, some of which contradict the Israeli data (or at least suggest that the conclusion from the Israeli data is not that boosters are necessarily needed now for the general public)?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/covid-booster-shots-scientists-blast-us-move-as-premature.html


I'm no expert either, however in the linked article a few things caught my eye:

quote:

To be sure, federal health officials said the vaccines are still holding up against severe disease over time, even as their ability to prevent infections declines. They said, based on their latest assessment, “the current protection against severe disease, hospitalization, and death could diminish in the months ahead, especially among those who are at higher risk or were vaccinated during the earlier phases of the vaccination rollout.”

There are some groups in the U.S. who would benefit from a third dose right now, according to Dr. Archana Chatterjee, a member of the Food and Drug Administration’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee.

Data does support the need for booster doses primarily among those who are moderate to severely immunocompromised, Chatterjee said. Federal health officials on Friday approved giving booster shots to such people – which include cancer and HIV patients and people who have had organ transplants – after data suggested they don’t produce an adequate immune response after getting two doses.

This doesn't make the case against a booster. It seems even the experts see a benefit. The worst case they appear to see is there is zero benefit but no negative consequences. I think that says enough on its own.

The other thing that caught my eye:

quote:


For example, the New York study released by the CDC showed there were 9,675 infections among fully vaccinated adults, compared with 38,505 infections among unvaccinated adults during the period examined. Among the fully vaccinated people who were infected, 1,271 were hospitalized, accounting for roughly 15% of all Covid hospitalizations.


That doesn't really sound great to me considering that even "mild" symptoms put folks on their rear end and make them feel like they are going to die. It isn't sustainable unless folks like the idea that their local hospital is on the verge of collapse for all eternity.


Plus I am still skeptical of the way the CDC interprets data as this is still their interpretation to combating an airborne disease that has killed over half a million people in the US and maimed countless others: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/about-face-coverings.html

HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

Epic High Five posted:

3) There's already an entire country doing them and studying the results and I haven't seen anything stemming from that which is giving anybody pause. If there actually were some blaring alarm coming out of Israel's booster program I'm sure we'd be hearing about that instead of just people being vaguely worried that they may not actually be necessary.

Everyone should always remember to wait a few months on Israeli research articles to make sure they got all their denominators right this time. :v:

Getting a booster is not without its potential concerns. When last I looked, for example, at the rate of myocarditis (particularly in young adult otherwise healthy males) from mRNA COVID vaccination vs. getting COVID itself, the vaccine far, far outweighs getting COVID on that metric alone (and many other metrics). However, as age decreases, the rate of myocarditis increases somewhat. Are the risks of myocarditis the same on a 3rd dose, increased, decreased, does time matter between dosing schedules, etc? Does the increased risk of myocarditis outweigh the small protection amount gained on average?

And on the studies looking at the need for boosters, how are they dealing with survivor biases? What potential survivor biases are right there that we currently aren't seeing?

Unless you are immunocompromised (or soon to be), geriatric (because old people immune systems no work so good), or maybe you're in a high risk environment (healthcare, in person teaching, etc.), and are otherwise healthy, there is not sufficient data to recommend boosters. Pfizer et al want you to think you need them because they want to sell you more shots. They want to stoke your fears so you go get another shot.

Yet it may well be that SARS-CoV-2 is a 3 shot schedule, there are any number of other diseases out there where their vaccination schedules are 3 shot. However, those took years or even a decade or more to come to that decision.

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

The FDA displaying garbage stats from the public with their logo directly next to it during today’s hearing is going a well as you’d expect:

https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1438910319116627968?s=20

It’s good to know that both the CDC and FDA are incompetent.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

HelloSailorSign posted:

Everyone should always remember to wait a few months on Israeli research articles to make sure they got all their denominators right this time. :v:

Getting a booster is not without its potential concerns. When last I looked, for example, at the rate of myocarditis (particularly in young adult otherwise healthy males) from mRNA COVID vaccination vs. getting COVID itself, the vaccine far, far outweighs getting COVID on that metric alone (and many other metrics). However, as age decreases, the rate of myocarditis increases somewhat. Are the risks of myocarditis the same on a 3rd dose, increased, decreased, does time matter between dosing schedules, etc? Does the increased risk of myocarditis outweigh the small protection amount gained on average?

And on the studies looking at the need for boosters, how are they dealing with survivor biases? What potential survivor biases are right there that we currently aren't seeing?

Unless you are immunocompromised (or soon to be), geriatric (because old people immune systems no work so good), or maybe you're in a high risk environment (healthcare, in person teaching, etc.), and are otherwise healthy, there is not sufficient data to recommend boosters. Pfizer et al want you to think you need them because they want to sell you more shots. They want to stoke your fears so you go get another shot.

Yet it may well be that SARS-CoV-2 is a 3 shot schedule, there are any number of other diseases out there where their vaccination schedules are 3 shot. However, those took years or even a decade or more to come to that decision.

IK notice:

I want to stress that HelloSailorSign is correct here. Do not seek out additional vaccine based on the advice of strangers on the internet, please make those decisions with your healthcare professional if you are privileged enough to be able to consult one. Remember that we do NO CREDENTIALING and anything you take from this thread is based on people from all sorts of backgrounds and experience and trying to sort it out as best they can.

Be safe and be smart. Don't do anything out of fear if you are already doing your due diligence regarding masking/vaccination. Booster discussion is not verboten in here but please be mindful of the things you're suggesting. That is all.

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

Is it cool to point out that the CDC has been, and continues to be wrong on its interpretation of the data presented to them, provided one can show evidence based on the scientific community (aka mask mandates and reduction in transmission)? Can we also use examples and mandates from other countries CDC equivalent?

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



HelloSailorSign posted:

Everyone should always remember to wait a few months on Israeli research articles to make sure they got all their denominators right this time. :v:

Getting a booster is not without its potential concerns. When last I looked, for example, at the rate of myocarditis (particularly in young adult otherwise healthy males) from mRNA COVID vaccination vs. getting COVID itself, the vaccine far, far outweighs getting COVID on that metric alone (and many other metrics). However, as age decreases, the rate of myocarditis increases somewhat. Are the risks of myocarditis the same on a 3rd dose, increased, decreased, does time matter between dosing schedules, etc? Does the increased risk of myocarditis outweigh the small protection amount gained on average?

And on the studies looking at the need for boosters, how are they dealing with survivor biases? What potential survivor biases are right there that we currently aren't seeing?

Unless you are immunocompromised (or soon to be), geriatric (because old people immune systems no work so good), or maybe you're in a high risk environment (healthcare, in person teaching, etc.), and are otherwise healthy, there is not sufficient data to recommend boosters. Pfizer et al want you to think you need them because they want to sell you more shots. They want to stoke your fears so you go get another shot.

Yet it may well be that SARS-CoV-2 is a 3 shot schedule, there are any number of other diseases out there where their vaccination schedules are 3 shot. However, those took years or even a decade or more to come to that decision.

Yeah there's a lot of moving parts, and even my broad declaration that I'm gonna be getting one is pretty pointless because by the time the current studies show my antibodies are likely to have dropped to nil, it's definitely gonna be decided one way or the other, and if I wasn't worried about likely exposure because of my job or high risk friends I'd probably not really prioritize it too highly, but it's all risk calculations no matter what road you take and them's the breaks. Hell if I was younger I'd almost certainly hold off because of those worries about effects in young people on the grounds that it's gonna be impossible to find someone willing to give a lower dose or whatever.

I think what is weirdest about all this to me is what poll plane variant mentioned. Okay we the official plan is to vaccinate our way out of it. Huge supply of vaccines? Check. Rolling out wide ranging mandates at long last? Check. Dumping lots of cash into getting needles into arms? Check. But the thing is, boosters were always acknowledged to be a part of it barring immediate and massive uptake, so why so much confusion and departmental fights now that we've reached that critical moment?

I should clarify that I'm not giving any advice here, just explaining the reasoning that myself and some others who are pro-boosters have rested their decisions or beliefs on.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Epic High Five posted:

Yeah there's a lot of moving parts, and even my broad declaration that I'm gonna be getting one is pretty pointless because by the time the current studies show my antibodies are likely to have dropped to nil, it's definitely gonna be decided one way or the other, and if I wasn't worried about likely exposure because of my job or high risk friends I'd probably not really prioritize it too highly, but it's all risk calculations no matter what road you take and them's the breaks. Hell if I was younger I'd almost certainly hold off because of those worries about effects in young people on the grounds that it's gonna be impossible to find someone willing to give a lower dose or whatever.

I think what is weirdest about all this to me is what poll plane variant mentioned. Okay we the official plan is to vaccinate our way out of it. Huge supply of vaccines? Check. Rolling out wide ranging mandates at long last? Check. Dumping lots of cash into getting needles into arms? Check. But the thing is, boosters were always acknowledged to be a part of it barring immediate and massive uptake, so why so much confusion and departmental fights now that we've reached that critical moment?

I should clarify that I'm not giving any advice here, just explaining the reasoning that myself and some others who are pro-boosters have rested their decisions or beliefs on.

It's certainly worth nothing that boosters are not synonymous with the existing vaccine doses and that people getting advised to get a third shot are typically doing it under their physicians guidance. I personally wouldn't lie to get them and I would not encourage anyone else too, but the US is not the sole country dealing with this and everyone is coming from their own circumstances. That's just the way it is and I thank anyone who continues to put time and effort into the conversation.

MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004

poll plane variant posted:

The US plan was always to vaccinate our way to a miraculous outcome. We need to prevent mild disease to achieve our policy goals, since "living with the virus" and everyone getting "mild to moderate" cases twice a year is pretty untenable economically, and NPIs are off the table. Boosters are almost by definition the only way forward when the only permissable tool is vaccination.

I pretty much agree with this.

On the national level we’re collectively mentally beyond another round of lockdowns, we can barely get people to wear masks that cover their noses so PPE will always be iffy at best, but we’ve got vaccines that are stunningly effective and readily available in the US.

I think the non-PPE NPI part is the one thing I differ on. I think we’ll see heavy regional differences on vaccine mandates and casual opt-in masking between the urban/rural split. Most of Ameristan will go full death cultist regardless of any amount of carrots, sticks and federal recommendations though.

poll plane variant
Jan 12, 2021

by sebmojo
I wish I had been taking notes because the Israeli data seems to show a pretty precipitous drop in efficacy against severe and fatal covid in just a few more months. They're giving us a warning here.

My gut feeling is the myocarditis is a red herring if we are considering sterilizing immunity from vaccines as our primary method of controlling case numbers. There's no way through without full population boosting unless we are willing to consider the Chinese approach, which we are absolutely not.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Epic High Five posted:

I think what is weirdest about all this to me is what poll plane variant mentioned. Okay we the official plan is to vaccinate our way out of it. Huge supply of vaccines? Check. Rolling out wide ranging mandates at long last? Check. Dumping lots of cash into getting needles into arms? Check. But the thing is, boosters were always acknowledged to be a part of it barring immediate and massive uptake, so why so much confusion and departmental fights now that we've reached that critical moment?

I don't know that there's confusion and fighting so much as the FDA is very diligent about assessing safety and efficacy before approval and is an independent agency. Being largely independent of pressure from the White House is a very good thing, actually!

And yeah "talk to your own doctor about boosters" is definitely the right advice for now. You can chat with your doc about your own risk profile and underlying conditions and go from there.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
I was not under the impression that "sterilizing immunity" was our public health standard. I don't think anybody in power or any organization has held that to be the standard, as far as I recall anyway.

The vaccines keep us from dying, I think that's an incredible thing and I'm not going to demand the impossible of 100% sterilizing immunity. We'll all catch covid eventually, but we'll be fine.

poll plane variant
Jan 12, 2021

by sebmojo

How are u posted:

I was not under the impression that "sterilizing immunity" was our public health standard. I don't think anybody in power or any organization has held that to be the standard, as far as I recall anyway.

The vaccines keep us from dying, I think that's an incredible thing and I'm not going to demand the impossible of 100% sterilizing immunity. We'll all catch covid eventually, but we'll be fine.

A perfect vaccine may be impossible, but a 90% ballpark reduction in infections as we saw with fresh second doses and are now seeing in Israel will massively reduce the burden of this disease in the US in terms of suffering, economic impacts, and frankly the corrosion of the social fabric in general. The fewer cases the better, especially to protect the elderly, immunocompromised, and children.

HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

Epic High Five posted:

I think what is weirdest about all this to me is what poll plane variant mentioned. Okay we the official plan is to vaccinate our way out of it. Huge supply of vaccines? Check. Rolling out wide ranging mandates at long last? Check. Dumping lots of cash into getting needles into arms? Check. But the thing is, boosters were always acknowledged to be a part of it barring immediate and massive uptake, so why so much confusion and departmental fights now that we've reached that critical moment?

I should clarify that I'm not giving any advice here, just explaining the reasoning that myself and some others who are pro-boosters have rested their decisions or beliefs on.

And that's fine, you're not a bad person for feeling this way. As noted above, the CDC has been abysmal in their messaging efforts throughout the pandemic. This is likely in large part to the "starve the beast" mentality of the Trump administration as well as general Republicans in Federal positions of power and more conservative Democrats who are.... enamored... shall we say... with big Pharma companies. Rebuilding the CDC is going to take years and any Republican/conservative administrations that are able to come on in the meantime can undo years worth of work in months, if not weeks.

It's also extremely hard because Public Health and Evidence Based Medicine are icky, nasty, dirty affairs. They're rife with misunderstandings, poor research, big heads tooting their own stupid horns, and people who should know better doing far worse. Generally, we get the benefit of years worth of research to see who actually did things right and who did things wrong. But, we're right in the middle of a pandemic, so what do you do?

Well it's hard to find a group of epidemiologists and physicians to follow, any number of both groups are looking to build their personal brands, dealing with their own psychological demons regarding the pandemic, the absolute vast, vast majority of people don't have the biomedical or research chops to understand how to find good people, and a lot of people can get credentialed and make papers who have absolutely no reason to be given that power in the first place.

Ivermectin has been a big thing in part because of people who should know better jumping outside their lanes. Take a look at this study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.26.21254377v1.full.pdf You've got medical/research personnel (that's fine) who are part of a clinic focused on researching the senses (...I guess there could be a relation to COVID hear with smell/taste, I'll allow it) yet their research is on.... looking at data about onchocerciasis in Africa?!

Yet they still conclude with the almighty p value about the significance. Unfortunately we likely will never know why they decided to do that, meanwhile this study is out there and tossed around by people who want to claim ivermectin is effective for COVID. They may be excellent and knowledgeable about MRI studies of the sensory locations of the brain, but they are way outside their wheelhouse looking 1) at ivermectin and parasites and 2) at Africa.

This type of issue is going on everywhere wrt COVID and related research.

At this point we must try to remember several things.
1) Antibodies are not the be all, end all, of COVID and immunity. In fact, arguably the humoral immune system is a minor player in dealing with COVID successfully on a general population basis because COVID's a virus (so cell mediated immunity is important). This is why we may see more positives in vaccinated people, but largely the effectiveness of keeping people out of severe situations is still greatly effective.
2) There are decent chunks of the population where their cell mediated immunity is shot - they're immunocompromised, they're old, they have some other immune system thing that otherwise is not an issue that we know of but here it is. They're the folks who we have good evidence to say a 3rd dose within 8 months of their series is a good call.
3) We are not going to be certain about anything until probably 2025, including vaccine adverse effects, COVID issues short, mid, and long term, impacts of social distancing on kids, social development, adults, on the widespread usage of ivermectin at high doses in reproducing populations, etc. The uncertainty provides fear, the uncertainty means that each person, each locality, each government, will need to weigh the varied issues and determine what is probably the best path forward, but that means that there is fair chance we can get it wrong... and that's medicine and public health.
4) What people discuss and how they feel are going to be highly dependent on their local situation. Someone double vaxxed working in a grocery store in a place with 30% vaccine uptake? You know, I'm not really gonna roll my eyes that much if they want to get a 3rd shot 8 months after their series. A work from home person who maybe interacts with 30 people indoors a week in an area with 70% vaccine uptake wanting a 3rd dose who is otherwise healthy? Yeah, that's an eye roll, because what they've developed is something that needs therapy, not another booster, and thinking they've got data to back up their assertions is unfortunately not irrefutably able to be proven wrong, while it largely is.

HelloSailorSign fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Sep 17, 2021

Google Butt
Oct 4, 2005

Xenology is an unnatural mixture of science fiction and formal logic. At its core is a flawed assumption...

that an alien race would be psychologically human.

How are u posted:

I was not under the impression that "sterilizing immunity" was our public health standard. I don't think anybody in power or any organization has held that to be the standard, as far as I recall anyway.

The vaccines keep us from dying, I think that's an incredible thing and I'm not going to demand the impossible of 100% sterilizing immunity. We'll all catch covid eventually, but we'll be fine.

hey you know even if you dont die from covid you can get extremely hosed up, permanently? Covid isn't something we will learn to live with, sucks but it's the truth.

poll plane variant
Jan 12, 2021

by sebmojo

Google Butt posted:

hey you know even if you dont die from covid you can get extremely hosed up, permanently? Covid isn't something we will learn to live with, sucks but it's the truth.

Billions of people live with endemic malaria but we in the US refused to tolerate it, and we should refuse to tolerate this.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

poll plane variant posted:

A perfect vaccine may be impossible, but a 90% ballpark reduction in infections as we saw with fresh second doses and are now seeing in Israel will massively reduce the burden of this disease in the US in terms of suffering, economic impacts, and frankly the corrosion of the social fabric in general. The fewer cases the better, especially to protect the elderly, immunocompromised, and children.

Was the 90% drop in transmission after second shot from Israeli data during their first big vaccine drive a while back? I thought that was mostly pre-Delta. Two shots of vaccine is amazing at having non-Delta SARS-CoV-2 just bounce off you entirely.

Delta is a gamechanger for breakthrough infections in vaccinated people. The vaccines are still good against hospitalization/death.

Have you seen any data on transmission reduction (or protection against infections, period) post third shot? Seems like it's too early to have much of that.

Craptacular!
Jul 9, 2001

Fuck the DH
We have some hospitalization numbers:

quote:

A head-to-head study of all three authorized coronavirus vaccines in the United States finds the Moderna vaccine is slightly more effective than Pfizer's in real-life use in keeping people out of the hospital, and Johnson & Johnson's Janssen vaccine comes in third, but still provides 71% protection.
Pfizer's vaccine provided 88% protection against hospitalization, and Moderna's was 93% effective.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention led a nationwide study of vaccination involving more than 3,600 adults hospitalized for Covid-19 between March and August. "Among U.S. adults without immunocompromising conditions, vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalization during March 11- August 15, 2021, was higher for the Moderna vaccine (93%) than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (88%) and the Janssen vaccine (71%)," the team wrote in the CDC's weekly report on death and disease, the MMWR.

"Although these real-world data suggest some variation in levels of protection by vaccine, all FDA-approved or authorized COVID-19 vaccines provide substantial protection against COVID-19 hospitalization."

They found that the biggest difference between the vaccine made by Moderna and Pfizer/BioNtech's vaccine was driven by a decline that started about four months after people were fully vaccinated with Pfizer's vaccine. "Differences in vaccine effectiveness between the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine might be due to higher mRNA content in the Moderna vaccine, differences in timing between doses (3 weeks for Pfizer-BioNTech versus 4 weeks for Moderna), or possible differences between groups that received each vaccine that were not accounted for in the analysis," the team wrote.

"Vaccine effectiveness for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 91% at 14 -120 days after receipt of the second vaccine dose but declined significantly to 77% at more than 120 days," the team wrote.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Professor Beetus posted:

but the US is not the sole country dealing with this and everyone is coming from their own circumstances. That's just the way it is and I thank anyone who continues to put time and effort into the conversation.

I think this tends to get lost a lot in the US-centric nature of a lot of the COVID threads. What applies to the US may not apply to every other country including advice on boosters and whatnot.

Like for example how applicable is the Israeli or US immunity data to, say, Canada? Both Israel and the US strictly followed the shot schedules, didn't mix, etc... But in a lot of places that wasn't the case. The average time between shots was 2-3 months, a number of people mixed Astrazeneca and mRNA, both mRNA shots were used interchangeably with each other, etc...

Does the person who got AZ and then Moderna three months later need a booster sooner? Later? Is it worth it at all? Did spacing out the shots render better long term immunity? Worse? The same? It's not as cut and dry everywhere.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

The FDA displaying garbage stats from the public with their logo directly next to it during today’s hearing is going a well as you’d expect:

https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1438910319116627968?s=20

It’s good to know that both the CDC and FDA are incompetent.

This is the standard format for how the agency does this kind of event. It's been that way for years. No one who has even the slightest knowledge or interest other than sick burns or abuse is falling for this.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
What is supposed to be "garbage" about those stats? I'm missing something here.

It's a 90-day risk which is left out of the tweet and might be misleading. I guess it could be misrepresented by anti-vaxxers to claim the risk of the vaccine is higher than COVID but anti-vaxxers misrepresenting data isn't new.

edit: :siren: that Dr. Eli David twitter account appears to be an anti-vaxxer or vaccine skeptic so be careful with your sources?

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Sep 17, 2021

mod sassinator
Dec 13, 2006
I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

Discendo Vox posted:

This is the standard format for how the agency does this kind of event. It's been that way for years. No one who has even the slightest knowledge or interest other than sick burns or abuse is falling for this.

Ummm that tweet has 1,800 likes already. People are reading the message and believing it at face value. This was a disaster of a policy decision to not make it more clear what was and wasn't public comment from lunatic anti-vaxxers (of which there were at least three mentions of Nicki Minaj and swollen testicles in this FDA sanctioned and controlled meeting!).

poll plane variant
Jan 12, 2021

by sebmojo

Fritz the Horse posted:

Have you seen any data on transmission reduction (or protection against infections, period) post third shot? Seems like it's too early to have much of that.

Israel was seeing a sharp decline in cases among this group. It's all very preliminary especially for under 60. I'm trying to find up to the minute info on this but they've put out some data. I need to not be phone posting about something this crunchy but I'm watching the FDA thing on TV.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

mod sassinator posted:

Ummm that tweet has 1,800 likes already. People are reading the message and believing it at face value. This was a disaster of a policy decision to not make it more clear what was and wasn't public comment from lunatic anti-vaxxers (of which there were at least three mentions of Nicki Minaj and swollen testicles in this FDA sanctioned and controlled meeting!).

that twitter account is a vaccine skeptic and deliberately misinforming with that tweet which leaves out critical context for those statistics

Is the claim that a vaccine skeptic / antivaxxer is misrepresenting data from the FDA meeting and therefore the FDA is loving up somehow?

edit: I'm at work and not watching the meeting so I genuinely am not sure what the issue being presented here is

edit2: oh is it something about how the FDA allows public comments, including slideshows from the public, and so anti-vaxxers are allowed to show powerpoint slides at the FDA meeting?

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Sep 17, 2021

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

Fritz the Horse posted:


edit: :siren: that Dr. Eli David twitter account appears to be an anti-vaxxer or vaccine skeptic so be careful with your sources?

That is the point. The FDA provided a gift to the anti-vaccine folks (diehards and grifters) to further confuse the public.

mod sassinator
Dec 13, 2006
I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

Fritz the Horse posted:

that twitter account is a vaccine skeptic and deliberately misinforming with that tweet which leaves out critical context for those statistics

Is the claim that a vaccine skeptic / antivaxxer is misrepresenting data from the FDA meeting and therefore the FDA is loving up somehow?

Yes, why should the FDA amplify antivaxxers under any circumstances?

Public comment could have been done at a different time and not impacted anything. Or they could have chosen to only take written comments.

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Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

mod sassinator posted:

Yes, why should the FDA amplify antivaxxers under any circumstances?

Public comment could have been done at a different time and not impacted anything. Or they could have chosen to only take written comments.

You do not know anything about how public comment works, and you are looking for and recirculating things you can abuse to reinforce your prior beliefs.

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