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https://twitter.com/saintamourmi/status/1438938967202742273?s=20
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Sep 18, 2021 02:39
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I wonder how much of the apparent vaccine waning is because people ditched all other NPIs. Like I know that Israel saw pretty fast positive results from their booster campaign (probably alongside constant-ish NPIs), but at the same time, initial vaccine effectiveness was measured when a lot more people gave a drat about protecting themselves from the virus.
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Sep 18, 2021 02:43
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Zugzwang posted:I wonder how much of the apparent vaccine waning is because people ditched all other NPIs. Like I know that Israel saw pretty fast positive results from their booster campaign (probably alongside constant-ish NPIs), but at the same time, initial vaccine effectiveness was measured when a lot more people gave a drat about protecting themselves from the virus. It's possible, but for that to translate into reduced VE vaccinated people would have to be increasing their risk by greater factor over time than unvaccinated people, and to get VEs lower than the phase 3 estimates you'd need higher behavioral and environmental risk taking in the vaccinated group than unvaccinated. E: behavioral + environmental risk + other unaccounted for confounders!
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Sep 18, 2021 02:52
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I was really hoping for a final tweet when they report that he's dead now, but the post ended abruptly instead.
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Sep 18, 2021 03:07
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NPR reports that the FDA is likely going to permit only olds and those at high-risk get boosters. Edit: here's the story https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/09/17/1038374005/experts-advising-fda-vote-against-pfizer-covid-booster I was really hoping to get that booster.
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Sep 18, 2021 03:09
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Woodsy Owl posted:NPR reports that the FDA is likely going to permit only olds and those at high-risk get boosters. Nothing's stopping you
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Sep 18, 2021 03:12
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Woodsy Owl posted:I was really hoping for a final tweet when they report that he's dead now, but the post ended abruptly instead. He just tested positive on Wednesday, so it's still up in the air. Apparently the story from January with the picture of him being rushed to the hospital was because he passed out in a city council meeting due to hypoglycemia, which is a separate Mr. Pepper incident.
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Sep 18, 2021 03:14
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Stickman posted:It's possible, but for that to translate into reduced VE vaccinated people would have to be increasing their risk by greater factor over time than unvaccinated people, and to get VEs lower than the phase 3 estimates you'd need higher behavioral and environmental risk taking in the vaccinated group than unvaccinated. Nah. Vaccine efficacy was demonstrated under certain conditions of masking and social distancing. It is possible that efficacy is worse under different conditions. For example, I think it’s pretty widely agreed that the breakthrough rates observed at bear week are not representative of the breakthrough rates that might be observed in an office. It’s biologically plausible that immune system resources can be temporarily and locally overwhelmed under high exposure. Under high exposure, both vaccinated and unvaccinated alike get sick, whereas light exposure might result in infection only in the unvaccinated.
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Sep 18, 2021 03:18
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I first read the ticker as this fat dudes impending death sent Papa Johns stocks into a free fall.
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Sep 18, 2021 03:56
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https://overcast.fm/+ajFEB-tGc Listening to this, interesting podcast, ironically I first heard about dr Rhonda Patrick on the Joe Rogan show  She seems legit, but my radar for hucksters isn’t great so here you go
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Sep 18, 2021 04:07
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Woodsy Owl posted:NPR reports that the FDA is likely going to permit only olds and those at high-risk get boosters. They're only granting the Pfizer booster EUA for Olds because that's apparently the only age group that saw a noticeable improvement in efficacy from the booster; the other age groups didn't lose enough efficacy for the booster to make a difference This was a review of just Pfizer data and the FDA criticized Pfizer of not being able to provide peer reviewed results, so this will probably all change. But as of right now, our best understanding is that the Pfizer vaccine was not losing much efficacy in people younger than 60.
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Sep 18, 2021 04:41
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:1500 people died of-or-with-Covid today… in Florida alone Charliegrs posted:And that number from Florida probably isn't even the real number None of the reported pandemic numbers are 'real' in the sense that they accurately reflect what actually occurred on the day and some are way less 'real' than others (and the numbers out of Florida have been especially circumspect the entire pandemic) but in the specific case of daily reported covid deaths in Florida it's being reported in two wildly different manners at the moment. The official state report on covid deaths in Florida changed the way they report about a month ago, they used to just announce deaths as they were confirmed but now when they add them to the stats they backdate them to when they occurred, so the 'official' covid deaths graph for Florida currently looks like this:  .... but for sites that still report deaths on the day that they're reported (like almost every state has been doing right from the start) they have Florida looking like this:  So on the one hand you've got reports coming out 2 or 3 times a week listing 1,500 newly backdated covid deaths in Florida but the official daily report is usually that 6 or 7 confirmed covid deaths were reported for that day. If people are comparing the graphs for several different states and they don't realise the differences in reporting then they'd assume that covid was pretty much finished in Florida when it's raging out of control worse than ever before.
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Sep 18, 2021 07:29
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Platystemon posted:Nah. Ah, I see what you mean - VE is lower under higher average exposure rather than VE estimates affected by changing behavior. That's possible, though you'd still expect vaccines to offer protection and it's not obvious that relative protection should be less. I guess it could be tested directly by comparing VE in frequent-exposure groups like service workers to pair-matched lower-exposure individuals, or maybe by looking for waning efficacy in areas where exposure levels should be relatively constant, like secondary infections in households.
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Sep 18, 2021 07:37
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:Looking at this graph, I'm more confused now about what is a "wave", exactly? because looking at the whole thing, it seems like part of the same wave to me WhiteHowler posted:The peaks. Spring 2020, Summer 2020, Holiday 2020, and now Summer 2021. Yeah even the countries that were attempting a Zero Covid strategy always had some cases occurring between peaks. It might look like they kept getting back to zero when you compare them against other countries:  ..... but if you zoom in close you can see that they actually had a steady stream of reported cases, even if they were only international travelers who popped positive during compulsory quarantine on entry:  (New Zealand and Taiwan actually managed to get down to zero average cases for a while in late May/early June 2020 but that didn't last long) Also don't forget that testing was really constrained at the start of the pandemic and at first people in the US could only get tested if they'd traveled through Wuhan or been in direct contact with someone who'd traveled through Wuhan so the actual numbers were grossly underreported and the first 'wave' was actually much much higher
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Sep 18, 2021 07:47
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I think if the boosters were making a big difference on infections in the general population we might have gotten a convincing interim readout fron the trial by now given how high infection rates are in general. That said it's definitely a smaller study since it can only include people who were in the vaccine wing of the study (the placebo group were dosed too recently). I have little doubt it will make a measurable difference but it may not be that big.
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Sep 18, 2021 09:28
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If anyone was wondering how patients would be prioritized during triage here's a list of 'tie breaker' criteria from Idaho https://twitter.com/audreydutton/status/1438512522106007553
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Sep 18, 2021 10:17
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QuarkJets posted:They're only granting the Pfizer booster EUA for Olds because that's apparently the only age group that saw a noticeable improvement in efficacy from the booster; the other age groups didn't lose enough efficacy for the booster to make a difference That seems to support the UK study someone posted here a while back showing that a large majority of breakthrough cases were older people.
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Sep 18, 2021 11:54
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Yeah even the countries that were attempting a Zero Covid strategy always had some cases occurring between peaks. It might look like they kept getting back to zero when you compare them against other countries: edit: But yes, your broader point about 'waves don't have to go to zero to mark the start/end of a wave' is valid. Nam Taf fucked around with this message at 13:45 on Sep 18, 2021 |
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Sep 18, 2021 13:42
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gay picnic defence posted:That seems to support the UK study someone posted here a while back showing that a large majority of breakthrough cases were older people. Especially in terms of severe disease and death. There was a recent public health study here in Ontario tallying breakthrough cases since the vaccination campaign started: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-epi-confirmed-cases-post-vaccination.pdf The vast majority of breakthrough deaths were in the 80+ demographic and most interestingly, not a single death under 50, only a single ICU admission under 50, and only a small handful of breakthrough deaths between 50 and 80.
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Sep 18, 2021 14:11
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Especially in terms of severe disease and death. There was a recent public health study here in Ontario tallying breakthrough cases since the vaccination campaign started: Sounds like a lot of the doom posting won’t apply to many goons then. I wonder what the frequency is when you take out people with immune deficiencies or were only recently vaccinated and didn’t have full immunity.
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Sep 18, 2021 14:18
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gay picnic defence posted:Sounds like a lot of the doom posting won’t apply to many goons then. That data only considered people two weeks past a second shot fully vaccinated breakthroughs so that's controlled for there, but doesn't say if they were immunocompromised or anything like that.
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Sep 18, 2021 14:29
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Does this mean I'm a weird outlier for getting a breakthrough case a couple weeks ago at 40? Because my test was positive and I had mild symptoms, and was vaccinated back in March.
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Sep 18, 2021 14:31
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:If anyone was wondering how patients would be prioritized during triage here's a list of 'tie breaker' criteria from Idaho 2021 is GPU raffles and ICU lotteries
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Sep 18, 2021 14:41
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Hasturtium posted:Does this mean I'm a weird outlier for getting a breakthrough case a couple weeks ago at 40? Because my test was positive and I had mild symptoms, and was vaccinated back in March. You're still much less likely to get a case if vaccinated (although all that depends how often you are exposed and whatnot) but it's not impossible no. The really weird outlier would have been if you were hospitalized or dead. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Sep 18, 2021 |
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Sep 18, 2021 14:58
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:If anyone was wondering how patients would be prioritized during triage here's a list of 'tie breaker' criteria from Idaho Vaccination status if eligible should be on that list
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Sep 18, 2021 15:14
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In younger people, protection against infection and mild cases wanes (but does not go anywhere near zero!) over time. Protection against severe cases and hospitalization remains strong. This is probably because neutralizing antibodies are the main thing that are lost, while memory cells remain. The reduced antibody levels mean that the virus has more of a chance to get started in your body, but memory cells sense the infection and can crank out fresh antibodies quickly enough to prevent the infection from getting too bad. Whereas in much older people, protection against severe illness and death degrades significantly more than it does in younger folks. To be frank, I'd consider protection against infection to be drat worth keeping up, considering that if you don't get infected, then that means you can't give it to others. Wifezwang and I both had our second shots in April, which I guess means we're less protected against infection than we used to be. We are still keeping to ourselves because we have a one-month-old, and she has zero protection. Hopefully by the time she's six months old, vaccines will be approved for her age group. But I'm respirator crew until then for sure (and probably after).
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Sep 18, 2021 15:19
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Hasturtium posted:Does this mean I'm a weird outlier for getting a breakthrough case a couple weeks ago at 40? Because my test was positive and I had mild symptoms, and was vaccinated back in March. Delta-Wye posted:king county in WA These numbers jive with what I've seen in other reports. About 30% of cases are in the vaccinated. You're not much of an outlier.
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Sep 18, 2021 15:40
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https://twitter.com/RexHuppke/status/1438582836378939393?s=20
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Sep 18, 2021 16:18
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I grew up going to the Publix referenced in the 6th tweet, it's very strange to see it referenced and I feel bad for the people who work there.
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Sep 18, 2021 17:18
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Fake, they wouldn’t admit covid 19 exists
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Sep 18, 2021 17:27
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Zugzwang posted:In younger people, protection against infection and mild cases wanes (but does not go anywhere near zero!) over time. Protection against severe cases and hospitalization remains strong. This is probably because neutralizing antibodies are the main thing that are lost, while memory cells remain. The reduced antibody levels mean that the virus has more of a chance to get started in your body, but memory cells sense the infection and can crank out fresh antibodies quickly enough to prevent the infection from getting too bad. I think it's worth noting that we have evidence that protection against severe disease declined after 2 doses in 60+, but we don't have much evidence either way for <60. The problem (for science, not people getting infected) is that <60 were always less likely to have severe cases so there have are far fewer cases on which to base effectiveness trend estimates. The only study I've seen with an acceptable sample size of severe cases <65 is the Kaiser Permanente Southern CA study, which also did not find evidence of declining efficacy vs. severe disease in >65: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1430208810153504770 The Israeli data has a pretty clear trend of waning effectiveness vs hospitalization for >60, but a very small sample <60 and their booster study showed a >10-fold increase in protection against severe disease over non-boosted vax for people >60. At this point I'm ready to say the VE vs severe disease doesn't wane, just that we don't have enough data to pinpoint it. E: Just in case anyone reads through the Topol thread, he's actually incorrect about the Pfizer follow-up results: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1430215410700357632 That 91% is the VE for the whole time period 0-6 months, ie the average VE out to 6 months. The VE for 4-6 months was 84%, meaning the VE at 6 months is likely lower. 
Stickman fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Sep 18, 2021 |
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Sep 18, 2021 21:10
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compshateme85 posted:Vaccination status if eligible should be on that list This. Is there any legitimate argument for why hospitals aren't prioritizing based on vaccinated status? Like it seems hardly any hospitals are doing it so there must be a reason?
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Sep 18, 2021 21:25
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Charliegrs posted:This. Is there any legitimate argument for why hospitals aren't prioritizing based on vaccinated status? Like it seems hardly any hospitals are doing it so there must be a reason? "I'm not vaccinated because of my religious beliefs. If you deny me treatment for not being vaccinated then you are xenophobic!" just to guess.
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Sep 18, 2021 21:28
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IUG posted:"I'm not vaccinated because of my religious beliefs. If you deny me treatment for not being vaccinated then you are xenophobic!" just to guess. There’s no way they would use a word that big.
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Sep 18, 2021 21:32
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Charliegrs posted:This. Is there any legitimate argument for why hospitals aren't prioritizing based on vaccinated status? Like it seems hardly any hospitals are doing it so there must be a reason? practically not enforceable
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Sep 18, 2021 21:41
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Vaccination status for patients vaccinated in another state may be impossible to verify quickly.
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Sep 18, 2021 21:56
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Under what circumstances would you refuse to go to work? I'm a primary school teacher. In my country we're currently under lockdown, most people have only had one shot and schools are online. I'm getting the impression that people are going to be rushed back into work immediately after the second shot, which in my case will mean being around hundreds of unvaccinated children. I prefer teaching online and can find a job pretty quickly,, but I don't want to ruin my cv for no reason. Am I being crazy for not wanting to go into a school in the near future?
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Sep 18, 2021 22:24
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The impression I've gotten would be that you're reasonably likely to catch Delta even though you're vaccinated if you're surrounded by unvaccinated people constantly. Especially if they're not masking consistently. Reasonably likely being maybe 30-50% chance? Considering if you were unvaccinated I'd say it's virtually guaranteed. If you have no major health problems the vaccine should keep you out of the hospital. But you should not be surprised at all if you eventually have a mild or moderate case. So if you have any members of your family that are high risk consider you'll eventually expose them too. Rescue Toaster fucked around with this message at 23:12 on Sep 18, 2021 |
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Sep 18, 2021 23:10
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Stickman posted:I think it's worth noting that we have evidence that protection against severe disease declined after 2 doses in 60+, but we don't have much evidence either way for <60. The problem (for science, not people getting infected) is that <60 were always less likely to have severe cases so there have are far fewer cases on which to base effectiveness trend estimates. The only study I've seen with an acceptable sample size of severe cases <65 is the Kaiser Permanente Southern CA study, which also did not find evidence of declining efficacy vs. severe disease in >65: For "serious" cases the 12-60 year old sample size in the Israeli data is many thousands of people, that's enough to make a determination with pretty low uncertainty. And that determination is that the 2-shot regimen is still 90% effective after 5 months
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Sep 18, 2021 23:12
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I both want and should probably get a third shot, but I also got Moderna which seems to be handily outperforming the other vaccines, so I'm not sure how urgent I feel it is. Second shot was at the end of February, so the thoughts are getting a little more insistent.
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Sep 18, 2021 23:21
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