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Hadlock posted:Evergrande is now controlled by chinese government, or will be by the end of the week
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Sep 22, 2021 15:09
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My guess is all deposits by Chinese nationals under $100,000 usd are honored, jp morgan and blackrock will be told to pound sand. But I'm no professional Chinese too big to fail regulator
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Sep 22, 2021 15:26
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Hadlock posted:Number go up? All my poo poo is magically up 5% in pre market Don't worry, FOMC is today so there's still a chance that everything can go back in the shitter. Have faith
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Sep 22, 2021 17:13
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Hadlock posted:Number go up? All my poo poo is magically up 5% in pre market You should probably look into how futures work.
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Sep 22, 2021 17:54
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For anyone investing in Canadian stonks, I wish to inform you that Royal Bank of Canada will get fuckity hosed if Evergrande defaults tomorrow. (As will HSBC for Euro stonks especially) 
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Sep 22, 2021 18:39
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Grouchio posted:Do you think the US will default on it's loans this month, provided that's what the GOP wants and almost got to do back in 2013? no one wants that, this is a dumb game they play anytime there's a dem president. everyone will vote to raise the debt ceiling at the 11th hour, even if it means the dems give the GOP whatever they want, which will probably happen
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Sep 22, 2021 18:49
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$GOON went up 9% which means it will plummet 90% tomorrow right
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Sep 22, 2021 20:39
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Has anyone else bought some cheap way OTM SPY puts as debt ceiling lol hedges?
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Sep 22, 2021 21:05
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Monthly micro-panic over already?
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Sep 22, 2021 21:26
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I came across this short article about retail trader activity and it reminded me about a convo from a while ago where Pmchem was talking about retail trading and what would happen when the liquidity / interest started to die off. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3740929-the-retail-trading-frenzy-may-have-plateaud
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Sep 22, 2021 21:40
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Today was so green I'm back to negative double digits. Time for tomorrow to be a day they discuss in history classes.
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Sep 22, 2021 21:40
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Grouchio posted:For anyone investing in Canadian stonks, I wish to inform you that Royal Bank of Canada will get fuckity hosed if Evergrande defaults tomorrow. I will laugh if this is what leads to the Canadian real estate appreciation to unravel.
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Sep 22, 2021 21:43
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Post up your best international long term funds. I'm debating adding some into one of my long term accounts (tax advantaged if that matters).
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Sep 22, 2021 21:43
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Subvisual Haze posted:Monthly micro-panic over already?
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Sep 22, 2021 22:44
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Yeah but thats priced in.
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Sep 22, 2021 22:48
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tangy yet delightful posted:Post up your best international long term funds. I'm debating adding some into one of my long term accounts (tax advantaged if that matters).
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Sep 22, 2021 22:48
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CHIU hasn't let me down yet 
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Sep 22, 2021 22:55
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Grouchio posted:What are you talking about? Evergrande's default is tomorrow I'd assume that there isn't a lot of broad market exposure to their bonds. Also: DapperDraculaDeer posted:Yeah but thats priced in.
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Sep 22, 2021 23:01
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Syrinxx posted:excuse me this is the gambling thread where we buy weed ETFs and liver ultrasound stocks How did you get access to my portfolio
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Sep 23, 2021 00:50
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I rebalanced my fun money again for the nth time in as many weeks, pulled everything out of SPY last Thursday, currently 60% SOFI (up 12% today) 4% RYCEY (up 10%) 4% liver ultrasound 3% AJRD 1% XERS Tiny bit DHI, KBH, and then the balance being BND, VNQ, MUFG Weed stocks are too rich for my blood
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Sep 23, 2021 01:05
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Hadlock posted:I rebalanced my fun money again for the nth time in as many weeks, pulled everything out of SPY last Thursday, currently You had your fun money in SPY? That's not very fun!!
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Sep 23, 2021 01:08
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It's fun when it's returning 5%+ per month That's a better rate of return than Evergrande was offering two weeks ago
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Sep 23, 2021 01:35
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Is it possible we might finally get a market correction but not through a market crash but through inflation? Is there some metric that measures "net stock prices", i. e. stock prices with inflation substracted?
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Sep 23, 2021 11:22
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GABA ghoul posted:Is it possible we might finally get a market correction but not through a market crash but through inflation? Is there some metric that measures "net stock prices", i. e. stock prices with inflation substracted? There's all sorts of things like this: https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500/table/by-month Measuring long term inflation is fraught though. US government has done 2 major revisions to how inflation is measured. You go pretty deep into what's either crackpot or see-er of truth territory if you go down those rabbit holes. John Williams of shadowstats is one such person and calculates inflation using old government methods. For very long time horizons probably the easiest measure is the Dow to gold ratio but that's pretty rough too because the way the Dow is calculated is pretty goofy.
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Sep 23, 2021 14:57
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Subvisual Haze posted:Monthly micro-panic over already? 
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Sep 23, 2021 15:12
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How the gently caress is SPY almost back to 445 already? That is bonkers.
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Sep 23, 2021 15:40
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:How the gently caress is SPY almost back to 445 already? That is bonkers. Manip
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Sep 23, 2021 15:42
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:How the gently caress is SPY almost back to 445 already? That is bonkers. Purestrain bull delusions
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Sep 23, 2021 15:42
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:How the gently caress is SPY almost back to 445 already? That is bonkers. There were a high amount of puts open, people closed them at the bottom. This meant that if the other side of that trade is an MM they are delta hedging by shorting SPY. So when they close it the MM covers, buying SPY back and pocking the difference between their hedging and premium and the person with the put they just sold may double down and go long further adding buying pressure and making more people more likely to let go of puts. As we go up the MM doesn't need as large a hedge so they start covering their shorts that hedge the put. So even if it expires worthless that put is now fuel to make number go back up. the put:call was over 1.0 which is pretty drat high. (it's down to 0.8 but we opened at 0.6 so more puts have been loaded but still less than yesterday).
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Sep 23, 2021 15:48
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:John Williams of shadowstats is one such person and calculates inflation using old government methods. It should be very self evident that the US has not been experiencing 10% annual inflation for the last 20 years. poo poo compounds, and there are no prices that are 6x 2000 levels. (or with his lower ~6% estimate, even 3x 2000 price levels) Not even lol healthcare or education (which ~doubled in that timeframe iirc) Now it might be an interesting exercise to actually do what he claims to do, but he ain't it. lurksion fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Sep 23, 2021 |
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Sep 23, 2021 16:15
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lurksion posted:No, he very clearly just makes his numbers up out of nothing (or by adding a offset with some variance to the official number) I was trying to write that as neutrally as possible and still left room. Should have put in a "purports to." I only know of him because he gets mentioned by other people. Not endorsing him. My point is just there's not really an accurate and precise measure of inflation over periods longer much longer than a business cycle so doing a stock market to inflation comparison is always going to be rough.
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Sep 23, 2021 17:00
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GABA ghoul posted:Is it possible we might finally get a market correction but not through a market crash but through inflation? Is there some metric that measures "net stock prices", i. e. stock prices with inflation substracted? That's the problem though, inflation prices into many stocks, because the companies themselves can theoretically adjust their own prices to match inflation. Inflation hurts stock value much less than standard alternatives (bonds and cash are being eaten alive by low rates + inflation). Inflation is more a danger to the actual economy and growth itself but not necessarily to stock market value. Although, honestly nobody has any clue what the future holds. We're in very uncharted territory economically with global low interest rates and high inflation.
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Sep 23, 2021 17:31
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If I buy a leap today for April 2024, in 2021 and I sell it after October 2022, it's taxed at long term capital gains right? Year and a day etc. That seems to be what I've read so far Also, I'm guessing that they explicitly disallow writing off option costs as a business expense when you exercise the option, even if you claim day trader status?
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Sep 23, 2021 19:26
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Prior to the market uptick recently, what the hell is going on with Chinese stocks this month? There's been days where everything's red on my watchlist but companies that are well known going to get slammed by Xi and the CCP like Didi are green? Xi wants Chinese companies off the US market, I can understand behemoths like BABA holding through, but going off the top of my head, I saw tremendous amounts of days of gain and green this past month on, I think the ticker is TEM or TSM, which the description my brokerage provides as a Chinese-based foreign language education within China (so not teaching Mandarin), when Xi has killed this entire sector practically this past months almost overnight with long-standing English schools, the practically to "teach English in China" being non-existent where those who were teaching are doing it under the table privately with families which Xi made illegal a week or so later, taking other "white monkey" jobs that are fewer and far between or just flat out leaving China. Maybe I'm bitter about losing a lot on BABA when the CCP hit Jack Ma and ANT Group hard right before earnings, but it makes no sense that sinking ship companies in a country that is turning more isolationist are going up to me, especially foreign language education which took a hard crackdown by the CCP this past month. The only stock I see benefiting outright from CCP is NIO since Tesla is popular but they literally pull over Teslas in major tier cities "for inspection" because Xi doesn't want Chinese people owning Teslas. He saw the mistake he let Apple take over the phone market with iPhones in China whereas he wants Huawei and other Chinese makers to flourish, so he's trying to push out any foreign new tech or at least cause mass inconvenience by having Tesla drivers constantly pulled over by police that it forms a loving queue just to delay them over an "inspection" to dissuade people from buying them.
Solomon Gumball fucked around with this message at 19:39 on Sep 23, 2021 |
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Sep 23, 2021 19:36
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Hadlock posted:If I buy a leap today for April 2024, in 2021 and I sell it after October 2022, it's taxed at long term capital gains right? Year and a day etc. That seems to be what I've read so far Don't exercise a leap! At the very least sell it and buy a weekly for the same strike exercise that and pocket the $1000 or so difference.
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Sep 23, 2021 19:57
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Subvisual Haze posted:That's the problem though, inflation prices into many stocks, because the companies themselves can theoretically adjust their own prices to match inflation. Inflation hurts stock value much less than standard alternatives (bonds and cash are being eaten alive by low rates + inflation). So buy a bunch of VTIP?
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Sep 23, 2021 22:32
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I love you, RYCEY
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Sep 23, 2021 22:41
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Red posted:So buy a bunch of VTIP? buy spy, vti, voo, qqq, goog, DHR or whatever not vtip
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Sep 24, 2021 00:03
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Red posted:So buy a bunch of VTIP? They're the only bonds I hold (not a lot). A problem is that the price of bonds is inversely related to interest rates, so if future interest rates go up relative to now (likely but not guaranteed), the bonds would decrease in face value. So while VTIP does negate the sting of inflation relative to other bonds, it would still be expected to decrease in value if future interest rates are raised. I do think they're the best bond option right now.
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Sep 24, 2021 01:04
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Today is going to be an interesting day.
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Sep 24, 2021 07:54
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