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The USA also needs to be looking at things globally. If it's true that the virus mutates in the unvaccinated, then the two major problems are 1) the morons in countries with vaccine access who refuse the vaccine and 2) the billions of people outside those countries who do not yet have access to the vaccine. Delta was first detected in India, after all. There's a global supply chain to consider - any vaccine produced for US booster shots is production capacity not going towards vaccinating people in the global south. In an interconnected world, we really kind of need people EVERYWHERE to get vaccinated.
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Sep 25, 2021 16:06
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naem posted:the fact that delta is ramping up as bad or worse than original recipe covid did, due to so many unvaccinated people taking zero steps for safety, says to me that boosters will eventually be given a full green light as things get bad this winter
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Sep 25, 2021 16:13
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King Vidiot posted:I can't imagine what their motivation could be though. They're loving swimming in vaccine doses they can't even give away to dumbass chuds, so it's not a lack of supply. And we know they're not going to donate any or at least most of it to other countries. Even if you take the most pessimistic forecasts of waning efficacy giving boosters *right now* - i.e. less than nine months after the originals - is only going to improve efficacy 20 or 30 percentage points (i.e. from between 65 and 75% to 95%) and this is a completely different animal to the original dose, which of course improves efficacy by 95%. While small, the amount of side-effects from these boosters would be non-zero, and when you're dealing with a population which already has extremely low chances of death or serious injury the actual increase in lives saved in that population is only going to be small and uncomfortably close to the upper bounds of the amount of serious side effects. These are things that you *have* to consider when talking about population-level health interventions. Let's run some numbers to illustrate this: Assume that the risk of death from a covid infection for an unvaccinated 30-year-old is 0.1% (this is very much on the high side of estimates for IFR but I'm going to use round numbers to try and keep it simple), and there are a million 30-year-olds in our example cohort. Without vaccination we'd expect to see 1,000 deaths. With 95% efficacy that number drops to 50 deaths; if efficacy after 6 months is 65% that number is 350 deaths, so a booster would seem to save 300 lives - except of course that that's a million extra jabs. I don't know what the severe adverse effect rate of the Pfizer vaccine is but is it's anywhere near 0.03% we have big, big problems. In fact - because of course the decision is never *just* actuarial - if it's near 0.003% we have problems, because most people consider a death as a result of an intervention to be worse than a "natural" death. There are whole branches of ethics and philosophy devoted to this. Further confounding this of course is that not every one of those million 30-year-olds is going to catch it. We're 18 months into this poo poo and even the doomiest projections say only 30 or 40% of the population have actually caught it. The actual amount of lives saved by our intervention is going to be a lot lower than these perfectly spherical, frictionless predictions. It would be a very different matter if any of the vaccines were reliably generating quick enough sterilisation that the boosters would have an appreciable effect on the R number and bring us closer to herd immunity but there really doesn't seem to be any evidence of that.
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Sep 25, 2021 16:51
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naem posted:the fact that delta is ramping up as bad or worse than original recipe covid did, due to so many unvaccinated people taking zero steps for safety, says to me that boosters will eventually be given a full green light as things get bad this winter I've assumed they think pushing boosters will feed into the idea that the vaccines aren't effective, which is one issue for fence sitters.
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Sep 25, 2021 16:52
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King Vidiot posted:I can't imagine what their motivation could be though. They're loving swimming in vaccine doses they can't even give away to dumbass chuds, so it's not a lack of supply. And we know they're not going to donate any or at least most of it to other countries. If everyone whose titers are not looking great (per studies, statistically, or what have you) ran out and got their boosters all at once we would definitely not have a surplus, and we would definitely see a shortage for those who need to get tackled and forcefed their first dose. I already got my third dose but my spouse and parents haven't, yet. E: 133,000+ cases per day is still high as hell, regardless if it's down from 170,000+ cases per day. Sure, there's a decline but it needs to be much steeper as we head into winter. It isn't, and it's worrisome as heck.
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Sep 25, 2021 16:55
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Fauci said he expects this winter is going to be covid town and we should prepare for unpleasantness
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Sep 25, 2021 17:12
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naem posted:Fauci said he expects this winter is going to be covid town and we should prepare for unpleasantness I disagree, I think covid will go away this winter
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Sep 25, 2021 17:14
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PANIC https://news.yahoo.com/costco-brings-back-purchase-limits-123738082.html Costco brings back purchase limits on toilet paper
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Sep 25, 2021 17:20
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Let's run some numbers to illustrate this: This is a lovely argument against boosters. For a start, you're giving "severe adverse effects" from boosters equal weighting as covid deaths which is a ridiculous comparison. The Pfizer vaccine is known to cause myocarditis or pericarditis which are serious conditions but are treatable and most patients recover quickly. There's an extremely low number of deaths that have been attributed to the Pfizer vaccine directly, most often in extremely frail elderly people. Secondly by only factoring deaths into your equations you're completely ignoring all the other medical consequences of catching covid, plus all the pressure those illnesses put on hospitals and workplaces, and all the subsequent costs that maxxed-out hospital systems will have on quality of care and ICU availability. Thirdly, it's really lazy of you to hang your argument on "I don't know what the severe adverse effect rate of the Pfizer vaccine is but [wild guesswork]" when you could have easily googled some actual data and made an informed argument instead of this lovely uninformed half-argument which just wastes everyone's time.
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Sep 25, 2021 17:27
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:PANIC PANIC! AT THE COSTCO was right there
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Sep 25, 2021 17:29
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:This is a lovely argument against boosters. lol indeed, wouldn't want to waste anyone's time here, after all we are doing such important work in this Something Awful GBS thread titled "COVID-19 Ligma Variant"
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Sep 25, 2021 17:38
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QuarkJets posted:"COVID-19 Ligma Variant" What's Ligma?
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Sep 25, 2021 17:44
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Here's a summary of the FDA booster review. The tl;dr is that boosters don't seem to do much to prevent hospitalization and death , but are very effective at preventing infection and illness. Maybe the increased sterilizing immunity from a booster doesn't matter given the constant pool of antivax morons to spread any new strain? I just want vaccines for children and/or a rule change so I can stop quarantining/testing every runny nose.
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Sep 25, 2021 17:45
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Scaevolus posted:Here's a summary of the FDA booster review. There's just not much hospitalization and death to prevent in young double vaxxed people at this point especially, especially since the US regards hospitalization as the only "severe" outcome. Preventing cases and spread is the best possible outcome and they act like it's secondary
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Sep 25, 2021 17:49
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Kirk Vikernes posted:What's Ligma? 
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Sep 25, 2021 17:49
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It is interesting that cases seem to be trending down again, at least in some places (including my state). We'll have to see if it holds but I want to be optimistic.
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Sep 25, 2021 17:54
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:This is a lovely argument against boosters. It's considerably more work than the posters Veruca Salting about I WANT MY BOOSTERS NOW NOW NOW NOW GIVE THEM TO ME NOW and theorycrafting weird conspiracies about why they're not just shooting them into every arm in the world have been doing, and I literally disclaimered it as just being very rough numbers as an illustration of the kind of reasoning that's likely going on at the various authorities making this decision.
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Sep 25, 2021 17:55
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poll plane variant posted:There's just not much hospitalization and death to prevent in young double vaxxed people at this point especially, especially since the US regards hospitalization as the only "severe" outcome. Preventing cases and spread is the best possible outcome and they act like it's secondary 
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Sep 25, 2021 18:02
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goddamnedtwisto posted:It's considerably more work than the posters Veruca Salting about I WANT MY BOOSTERS NOW NOW NOW NOW GIVE THEM TO ME NOW and theorycrafting weird conspiracies about why they're not just shooting them into every arm in the world have been doing, and I literally disclaimered it as just being very rough numbers as an illustration of the kind of reasoning that's likely going on at the various authorities making this decision. Ah yes the people who disagree with you are all selfish conspiracy theorists, that explains it.  Your arguments are all moot anyway, the CDC has approved boosters for the majority of US workers (they just have to tick a box on the Walgreens site saying that they work at an occupational or institutional setting which puts them at risk of increased exposure) so boosters are now officially approved by The Science
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Sep 25, 2021 18:10
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El Salvador just approved boosters for govt workers and people with comorbidities
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Sep 25, 2021 18:11
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Australia has noted that some people will probably need a 3rd shot but we're still struggling to complete the rollout of the first 2 shots and the vaxx companies haven't even submitted the paperwork for 3rd shots yet so we haven't even started the approval processand the government won't be making any decision until maybe the end of October https://www.health.gov.au/news/atagi-statement-about-the-need-for-additional-doses-of-covid-19-vaccines It's going to be a while until anyone in Australia is 6 months past their 2nd shot anyway, we suuuuuuuuck at covid vaxx rollout.
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Sep 25, 2021 18:18
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Scarodactyl posted:It is interesting that cases seem to be trending down again, at least in some places (including my state). We'll have to see if it holds but I want to be optimistic. every time people are optimistic instead of wary or hesitant, we see a giant jump in cases and a bunch of folks die. it's great to see number go down even if number slightly smaller than before, but don't get too far ahead of yourself. there leads the way to disappointment when number go back up to bad. Snowglobe of Doom posted:Australia has noted that some people will probably need a 3rd shot but we're still struggling to complete the rollout of the first 2 shots and the vaxx companies haven't even submitted the paperwork for 3rd shots yet so we haven't even started the approval processand the government won't be making any decision until maybe the end of October yeah I don't get how you guys are having such a rough time of it. is it supply basically?
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Sep 25, 2021 18:35
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:yeah I don't get how you guys are having such a rough time of it. is it supply basically? Making vaxx deals & ordering shipments was all down to our federal government and they're suuuuuuuuuuuper inept Eg: Pfizer were repeatedly emailing our health minister last July asking if we wanted any of that good poo poo which he ignored and no one from his office met with them until August and we didn't get a deal finalized until November, at which point obviously everyone else in the world was ahead of us in the line
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Sep 25, 2021 18:41
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Scaevolus posted:but are very effective at preventing infection and illness. Considering I live in a country with zero social safety net, and work in a job that requires my mental faculties to be sharp, I'm fine with this tradeoff. Taking a year off without good insurance to (hopefully) recover from airborne brain damage doesn't seem like a winner's strategy.
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Sep 25, 2021 19:16
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Raskolnikov2089 posted:I'm fine with this tradeoff. A less charitable analysis says "The FDA has been hard at work for decades ensuring people die or twist their lives into knots from a lack of access to medicine."
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Sep 25, 2021 19:31
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Has this been posted here yet, because this is great in every way The Glendale part https://twitter.com/chadloder/status/1441546157323288576
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Sep 25, 2021 20:57
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:PANIC lol what happen to the stockpile people should still have assuming it didnt get burned in a wildfire or flooded in a flood. like I still have the stuff from my 2020 Q1 & Q2 pruchases (which means my e-kit for staying put has a nice base)
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Sep 25, 2021 21:33
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:
Plenty of 1A people were vaccinated with Pfizer in March with a three week interval. They're at the 6 month past second dose mark already.
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Sep 25, 2021 21:46
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I'm at 7 months since my second dose of Moderna and feeling increasingly impatient. With only Pfizer third shots approved I feel like I'm in a bit of a limbo and tempted to ask for an off-label dose on my own.
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Sep 25, 2021 22:01
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CaptainSarcastic posted:I'm at 7 months since my second dose of Moderna and feeling increasingly impatient. With only Pfizer third shots approved I feel like I'm in a bit of a limbo and tempted to ask for an off-label dose on my own. a ton of people have already gotten theirs. I'm one of them. Hit me up with any questions you have. Moderna 3 hit about as hard as Moderna 2.
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Sep 25, 2021 22:10
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Without vaccination we'd expect to see 1,000 deaths. With 95% efficacy that number drops to 50 deaths; if efficacy after 6 months is 65% that number is 350 deaths, so a booster would seem to save 300 lives - except of course that that's a million extra jabs. I don't know what the severe adverse effect rate of the Pfizer vaccine is but is it's anywhere near 0.03% we have big, big problems. JFC the vaccine has not killed fifty thousand Americans.
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Sep 25, 2021 22:34
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smoobles posted:I disagree, I think covid will go away this winter I'm from Iowa and Covid has been gone since May 2020 
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Sep 25, 2021 22:38
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Kirk Vikernes posted:What's Ligma? ligma give you pneumonia
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Sep 25, 2021 22:51
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:a ton of people have already gotten theirs. I'm one of them. Hit me up with any questions you have. Moderna 3 hit about as hard as Moderna 2. Oh, yeah, that's another complicating factor - I got pretty harsh side effects from shots 1 and 2, and need to schedule days off with the expectation of similar effects from shot 3. At least my side effects from shot 2 were a little less horrible than from shot 1, but I still felt like crap for days.
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Sep 25, 2021 23:00
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Lolie posted:Plenty of 1A people were vaccinated with Pfizer in March with a three week interval. They're at the 6 month past second dose mark already. Oh poo poo that's even worse, I thought that if we didn't have any of the population at the 6 month mark yet then we had some leeway before we needed to start worrying about boosters. If we have a bunch of 1A people (which includes the very elderly) already past that point and a decision is still a month away and they haven't even begun the booster approval process at all then we've already left it too late.
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Sep 25, 2021 23:13
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Oh poo poo that's even worse, I thought that if we didn't have any of the population at the 6 month mark yet then we had some leeway before we needed to start worrying about boosters. If we have a bunch of 1A people (which includes the very elderly) already past that point and a decision is still a month away and they haven't even begun the booster approval process at all then we've already left it too late. I expect that it doesn't become an issue on the exact day you hit the 6 month mark, but we do need to get a wriggle on. We hosed up rolling it out to the elderly but healthcare staff, quarantine staff, and border patrol staff started being vaccinated in early March and we don't need their protection waning as we move into the next phase. It's literally a stroke of a pen thing, and that's likely to happen soon. The question is when we'll have sufficient supplies of vaccines to continue the initial rollout while simultaneously directing additional vaccines towards those who need a third dose. Given when Australia as a whole is expected to reach the vaccination targets, we're probably looking at another couple of months before there's any real push for a dose 3 rollout.
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Sep 25, 2021 23:54
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Detheros posted:I'm from Iowa and Covid has been gone since May 2020 Wow, cool! Iowa has so much to teach the world, if only we'd listen
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Sep 26, 2021 00:16
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Oh poo poo that's even worse, I thought that if we didn't have any of the population at the 6 month mark yet then we had some leeway before we needed to start worrying about boosters. If we have a bunch of 1A people (which includes the very elderly) already past that point and a decision is still a month away and they haven't even begun the booster approval process at all then we've already left it too late. Watch ScoMo steal Pfizer from everyone still waiting for their first or second dose to give his Boomer constituents a booster.
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Sep 26, 2021 00:33
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I guess this belongs here as well: https://twitter.com/LiveSmileBHappy/status/1441800894136213513 https://twitter.com/LiveSmileBHappy/status/1441831502099140608 DickParasite posted:Watch ScoMo steal Pfizer from everyone still waiting for their first or second dose to give his Boomer constituents a booster. ScoMo is off gallivanting around the US so if we're waiting on any swift decisive decisions we'll have to rely on the deputy PM which is ....... (checks notes) ....... BARNABY FUKKEN JOYCE???????? ahhhhhhhh we're rooted
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Sep 26, 2021 00:41
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If they trace an outbreak back to her there better be attempted manslaughter charges. Meanwhile, in Canadaland, my friend was "served" a 6 page "notice of liability" from one of his employees (blue collar construction work) that looks like it was pulled straight off this "Action4Canada" site. The form basically says "if you force me to take a vaccine I will sue you" and he was like "Okay." (and refused to sign it, of course). We spent a few minutes browsing around the Action4Canada site. That poo poo is wild...
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Sep 26, 2021 01:23
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